Caligo
Premiership Player
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Very good point. There are some horrendous contracts out there. We did a shocking one with Vickery a few years back.
Collingwood’s Moneyball
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It feels good to be the side of the campaigner team this off season
mr.sheen
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You don’t understand the concept of moneyball. Go watch the movie or read the book again.
Moneyball is about getting players cheap (money wise, or trade wise for your sake) due to the fact they were essentially undervalued by recruiters but then identified to be objectively more than their perceived worth via statistical analysis. This is different to just getting good players for cheap. Please read that last sentence again just incase. No one magically forgot Tom Mitchell was a Brownlow medallist and record breaking in disposals before he was traded. Hill similarly requested his trade.
Your topic should just be “who are players who came via steals” or more to the point just “I want to gloat about how cheap we got bobby hill”.
Moneyball is about getting players cheap (money wise, or trade wise for your sake) due to the fact they were essentially undervalued by recruiters but then identified to be objectively more than their perceived worth via statistical analysis. This is different to just getting good players for cheap. Please read that last sentence again just incase. No one magically forgot Tom Mitchell was a Brownlow medallist and record breaking in disposals before he was traded. Hill similarly requested his trade.
Your topic should just be “who are players who came via steals” or more to the point just “I want to gloat about how cheap we got bobby hill”.
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Mitchell was essentially undervalued by Hawthorn. They had moved him out of the middle (instead giving time to their next gen stars). Collingwood identified a weakness in our game, clearance and contested ball, so went a picked Mitchell on the cheap and let him play that role.
McStay is perfect example, as most people simply look at "disposals" and goals and then think meh this bloke is below average. But for a key forward he is one of only 2 who avg 10+ pressure acts and wins 35% of 1on1 forward contests.
Moneyball was about first identifying stats that matter, the stats that drive wins. And then targetting players who are strong in those areas.
That is exactly what the Pies did, targetted players for areas we knew we needed to address, whilst in the case of Mitchell, other clubs were happy to not use their talents where they were best suited.
Bobby Hill did come pretty cheap.
Club with good list management and gameplan achieves success by identifying best-bang-for-buck immediate needs, and getting clearly-defined role players on the cheap.
Stop the presses.
Stop the presses.
You have a point , but to pry a player out from another club , you are going to pay a little overs .
Engimal v3
**** m**nl*nd*rs
I don't think you can apply the term "Moneyball" to a player who won a Brownlow at their former club
Yep. 13 such players for Geelong's 2022 premiership. Two of which were big name acquisitions that cost plenty so don't fit OPs criteria, but the other 11 certainly do.
Geelong 2022:
Dangerfield (FA)
Stanley (trade)
Tuohy (trade)
Blicavs (rookie)
Rohan (trade)
Cameron (trade)
Smith (FA)
Atkins (rookie)
O'Connor (rookie)
Close (rookie)
Z.Guthrie (rookie)
J.Henry (rookie)
Stengle (delisted FA)
- Jul 13, 2015
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Youre allowed to let other people start threads. Makes you way less desperate for attention.
Plus its usually a bitter Blues supporter so you can double down on them too.
But yes, Hill was an awesome pickup. Mitchell was an absolute win for both clubs. He has always been a far better player than most gave credit for, but he was holding back the development of our kids.
Caligo
Premiership Player
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The problem with the term "moneyball" is that for it to make sense you need some fairly advanced analytics. The average fan doesn't have access to that, and wouldn't know what to do with it if they had it. Moneyball is also a term that relates to a "team" sport that is actually highly individual. It is mostly a series of 1on1 contests and then an individual fielding effort. It allows for a form of statistical analysis that is far harder in a genuinely team sport like AFL.
Some players could be classified as moneyball athletes with some pretty raw data. Ben Brown was an excellent recent example (kicked huge numbers of goals, was still thought to be a plodder by almost all afl fans). Mostly though, a moneycall candidate can't be spotted so easily, and so instead anybody cheap who comes good (bobby Hill for example) gets the epithet.
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VinnieB
Norm Smith Medallist
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Was it? $600k pa for 5 yrs. Seems it may be about right for a key position player. How much are you about to pay for Chol?
Sure he was injured, but came back in round 18 and kicked 2 goals in pretty much every game including finals. Was out marking Taylor and kicked 2 goals before going off injured in the 3rd of the Prelim. Major contributor to the win. Won a Premiership so probably has already paid for himself.
Caligo
Premiership Player
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I honestly thought it was more. 600k pretty reasonable. 5 years a bit long but not excessive.
Not a bargain, but hardly a blunder.
Dirty Bird
Pokémon Master
............Collingwood isn't the moneyball approach.
Moneyball is more building a team of role players. Who even qualifies as this who won a premiership? Sydney 2005?????
But tbh, the one team which felt like a moneyball approach was the 2016-17 Adelaide side. Didn't exactly work out......
I agree with this. However, I actually think Collingwood have 'Moneyballed' their premiership.
To illustrate, I'll use a comparison to my team, Carlton - who finished 3rd and were far off, but got there in a vastly different way.
What I think Collingwood have identified is that several types of players are statistically overrated and overvalued:
- contested midfielders who can win clearances and break from packs (Cripps, Bont, Martin, Dangerfield, Oliver, etc). This is reinforced by umpire voting in the Brownlow heavily skewing to these players
- key position forwards (eg: Curnow, Walker, Cameron, Hawkins). These players typically kick the most goals, often from 1-1 contests.
- Rucks. Sure, they're nice when they dominate, but they don't (and they get injured a lot)
Note Collingwood initially went that route: the paid a big price for Treloar and Beams as contested mids, scrambled to find big forwards and played Moore there early in his career, and of course spent a huge amount on Grundy. And then they pivoted...
What I think they have identified is that Big Forwards have the most advantage against poor opposition who are disorganised, where the Big Guys get a lot of 1-1 contests (ie: Curnow/Walker kicking big bags vs West Coast). Better opposition almost never let Curnow play 1-1; they get 2 or 3 help defenders across, and the deeper you go into finals the more the role of the big forward becomes 'crash packs and bring the ball to ground'. What Collingwood have figured out is that key forwards who are too short / too tall are undervalued. The latter is the Mason Cox effect - Harry McKay is a much better player than Cox, but deep in finals when the ball comes in slow and there are 3 defenders back, they're both equally likely to clunk one (or the difference isn't THAT huge).
Similarly, KF who are 'too short' are massively underrated. This is a ripper because AFL players are unusually tall. Brodie Mihocek is 192cm. That's actually 1cm taller than Tony Lockett, the greatest FF of all time. Mihocek likely played KF all his life, but because he isn't 5cm taller he is undervalued. Will Hoskin-Elliott and Beau McCreery are the same height as Dermott Brereton and 1cm taller than Gary Ablett Sr. Jamie Elliott is really, really short... but capable of being an aerial target nonetheless. All are capable of playing 'tall' and marking the ball, and by hunting that value rather than the single 200cm guy you can spread the 'money' around and have multiple really good options. This, coincidentally, makes it much harder for opposition teams whose defence is based on 'get player Y to sit off his man so they can swing across to help slow defender X deal with Harry McKay'. Those defenders have to adjust and play a different game to normal, and any time you get a team out of their system that tends to be a positive.
Back to contested midfielders: Collingwood have gone away from trying to find their version of Dangerfield and instead gone for two things: good disposal and speed. Their core mids are generally just solid ballwinners - Pendles, Mitchell, Adams won't burst from a pack or do spectacular things, but they are rarely beaten, and they are surrounded by a heap of speed.
Speed is the answer to a lot of things in footy. If Bont is bursting from packs, the answer isn't to have your own Bont (that just turns it into a 50/50 shootout), it is to have quick players on the outside who can rush him and force a rushed kick forward... and then quick defenders who can cover ground and intercept to win the ball back. Speed allows your players to put forward pressure on, to get to their defensive position quicker, to get to more contests...
And good disposal - it's massively underrated generally. Most of the 'burst' midfielders end up kicking under pressure anyway - they might win the ball and slam it foward but not always to advantage. Instead, Collingwood have focused on excellent kicks around the ground. COMBINE good disposal and speed and you have a real system here... you can beat guys to the outside with speed, hit them in stride with good disposal, and create space... which feeds into your multiple mobile 'Key Forwards'... cheap, efficient, effective.
So what have Collingwood spent their savings on? Wildcard or X factor guys like De Goey, retaining Darcy Moore (who is not just one of the best 4-5 defenders in the league, but importantly the FASTEST of them), and the cap flexibility to fill gaps. Need another mid - go get Tom Mitchell. Need an extra body to crash up forward - go get McStay.
Of course, that's the moneyball recipe, but Moneyball was really designed to help minor teams stay competitive, and on top of that you need a dose of luck. Enter their ridiculous father/son and academy run - Moore, the Daicos brothers and Quaynor is a ridiculous set of 'bonus' players, who also happen to play to the strengths of the team.
Any importantly, a coach who can recognise this and play to strengths. Not every team can do this and the 'contested ballwinnders and big forwards' setup won a premiership as recently as 2022 (Geelong). But it is certainly a moneyball approach IMO
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The AFL tribunal chairman likes Collingwood Moneyball
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Not sure on this point since we did convert De Goey from a full forward to serve this purpose
Elixuh
See you on the 9th green at 9
Did you uhhh watch the film or read the book? I don’t think you understand what moneyball is.
L_W_P
@peteplatinum on Instagram
St Kilda tried this under Alan Richardson and Chris Pelchen
2012 - Traded picks 12 & 13 for Tom Hickey, Tom Lee and a couple picks in the 20s
2013 - Traded Ben McEvoy for Shane Savage + Pick 18, pick 25 for Billy Longer and pick 48 for Josh Bruce
2015 - Traded a F2nd for Nathan Freeman, Pick 5 + 24 for Jake Carlile + 14.
2016 - Traded a F2nd for Jack Steele, pick 50 for Koby Stevens
Bruce and Steele were a winner but the rest of these fell apart. Our drafting/development was deplorable during this time as well so the players drafted with the 'value' picks didn't get us anything close to break even.
2012 - Traded picks 12 & 13 for Tom Hickey, Tom Lee and a couple picks in the 20s
2013 - Traded Ben McEvoy for Shane Savage + Pick 18, pick 25 for Billy Longer and pick 48 for Josh Bruce
2015 - Traded a F2nd for Nathan Freeman, Pick 5 + 24 for Jake Carlile + 14.
2016 - Traded a F2nd for Jack Steele, pick 50 for Koby Stevens
Bruce and Steele were a winner but the rest of these fell apart. Our drafting/development was deplorable during this time as well so the players drafted with the 'value' picks didn't get us anything close to break even.
Elixuh
See you on the 9th green at 9
Fine. I’ll do some moneyball.
Moneyball for Brisbane was appointing fagan.
Drafting will Ashcroft and jasper fletcher.
Trading in Neale, cameron, Daniher and Dunkley.
Getting rid of the inflatable lion the players would run through and replacing it with the banner again.
Building the Brighton homes arena training facility.
Moneyball for Brisbane was appointing fagan.
Drafting will Ashcroft and jasper fletcher.
Trading in Neale, cameron, Daniher and Dunkley.
Getting rid of the inflatable lion the players would run through and replacing it with the banner again.
Building the Brighton homes arena training facility.
David Justice.
i.e a player considered past his prime, lacking impact and not worth whatever he was being paid. That he won a brownlow doesn't mean he wasn't undervalued by clubs.
owen87
Premium Gold
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They're the new Richmond.
Weirdly neither Geelong nor Melbourne seemed to have a new thread about them every 2nd day when they were reigning Premiers.
The other curious effect we'll find is that Collingwood will now instantly become list management and coaching experts due to their team winning the flag.
I have two very good mates who are Richmond supporters - after their 3rd flag (over a few beers) they were giving me all sorts of advice on who the Blues should recruit or de-list.
Frustrated I said 'What would you know ?' and one mate started to say '...well, because we follow ..." and then stopped himself mid-sentence.
I laughed and said " You were going to say because you follow Richmond".
I have two very good mates who are Richmond supporters - after their 3rd flag (over a few beers) they were giving me all sorts of advice on who the Blues should recruit or de-list.
Frustrated I said 'What would you know ?' and one mate started to say '...well, because we follow ..." and then stopped himself mid-sentence.
I laughed and said " You were going to say because you follow Richmond".
- Sep 14, 2005
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Biggest club in the land gets spoken about often, it’s just the way it is.
I’m sure when Essendon win a final, we’ll all be talking about Essendon.
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