Collingwood’s Moneyball

[Biggy_Boy]

Collingwood 2010 as well had trade ins Jolly and Ball plus a heap of former rookie listed players in the final 22.

Whoa, that's crazy. Collingwood are really good at this moneyball thing.

Trade in players and use the rookie list. Someone inform the other clubs. Collingwood and Richmond have cracked the code!

 

[loki04]

Whoa, that's crazy. Collingwood are really good at this moneyball thing.

Trade in players and use the rookie list. Someone inform the other clubs. Collingwood and Richmond have cracked the code!

Despite the sarcasm....I don't think 2010 was moneyball rather just not a completey stocked ND premiership 22. Like Geelong and Hawks originally were in the 00s.

 

[loki04]

Moneyball doesn’t work outside of baseball

The premise of it does.
Looking at underrated/or flawed types and lower budget players to fulfil a role in the team over a established big name who may do it slightly better but statistically only marginally so.

 

[loki04]

Grundy pretty much only got you McStay.

Mcstay deal was happening regardless of Grundy leaving or not. It allowed all of them to come in.

 

[HavUEvaSeenTheRain]

Mcstay deal was happening regardless of Grundy leaving or not. It allowed all of them to come in.

Well all the others, not McStay as he was already coming.
What’s Mitchell on $500k? Plus $350k for Grundy. So it allowed you to get Mitchell and an extra $150k in cap space.

 

[Caligo]

Well all the others, not McStay as he was already coming.
What’s Mitchell on $500k? Plus $350k for Grundy. So it allowed you to get Mitchell and an extra $150k in cap space.

Mitchell might have been 500k last year, not sure what he is on this year but the Hawthorn part of the contract is over so however much it was you would think it is probably more now.

 

[Henry85]

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Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[owen87]

Nah, no risk. I think only the salty ones believe it. General feedback around the traps is Collingwood supporters have been modest.

This thread itself isn’t even meant to be about Collingwood. I was wanting to explore the idea around tailored drafting/trading. Only people that are feeling insecure are trying to make it a Collingwood gloating thread.




Case in point. Salty.

Ps: Nailed it though - those couple of off-seasons paved the way for Graeme Wright and co to go that moneyball approach and make more tactically decisions. Frampton was at the scrape-heap, Markov was the same. Mitchell was very well done by Collingwood. We’ve done well. Who else do you think has done it well previously?

You keep using the word salty as though it’s somehow relevant here. Weird.

Some of us enjoy discussing football without every topic being about one team.

And for a thread not meant to be about Collingwood, you managed to use 50% of the threads title saying Collingwood.

Methinks perhaps you’re not nearly as clever as you think you are.

 

[PieLebo87]

You keep using the word salty as though it’s somehow relevant here. Weird.

Some of us enjoy discussing football without every topic being about one team.

And for a thread not meant to be about Collingwood, you managed to use 50% of the threads title saying Collingwood.

Methinks perhaps you’re not nearly as clever as you think you are.

You’re now top 4 on the list of Top Contributors in here. All you’ve done in this time is share social commentary.

You’re about as useful and prolific here as your club is to the AFL competition. Just a waste of space and sentences.

The only thing half entertaining you’ve posted so far:
“50% of the thread title hurt my feelings waaaaaaaah”

 

[beerbandit]

Collingwood don't make the grand final without N Daicos. Most players can play one good game, but the arrival of Daicos and the improvement of his brother is what made Collingwood rise on the ladder to begin with.

Shhh … don’t tell everyone our secret!!

 

[Leeda]

Yeah, when you’re the premiers, people tend to talk about you.

Yeah when ya sick n tired of a damn Maggie who ....darn punk

 

[Leeda]

Shhh … don’t tell everyone our secret!!

F..ing nick daicos...struttcidnaidos...time..Nutts for u

 

[PieLebo87]

Yeah when ya sick n tired of a damn Maggie who ....darn punk

Loved Fly’s comments last night at the B&F. It was the month of the Maggie’s.

 

[Leeda]

Club with good list management and gameplan achieves success by identifying best-bang-for-buck immediate needs, and getting clearly-defined role players on the cheap.

Stop the presses.

Edwardo...knows wardo....killing my perception of a keen perplevision...
I be brown and gold...gather yourselves

 

[Daics35Marvel]

It definitely shows the benefit of topping up with mid level recruits when teams are in the Premiership window. I will admit to being extremely underwhelmed when the Pies brought in McStay, Frampton, Hill, Mitchell and Markov. I was all in on them winning the Hopper and Taranto sweepstakes.

It reminds me of the NFL where successful teams generally don’t “win” the first day of free agency, when all of the big money contracts are signed. It’s generally the lesser known players on reasonable money who give the biggest bang for the buck.

 

[Cyclops]

Salary cup well and truly bites these days. Tigers overcame it with their money-ball approach (and senior guys taking pay cuts to recruit that gutless spud Lynch, their only bad recruiting the guy is a selfish cancer in my view) which we copied, and Geelong adopted the Hawthorns over 28 approach with an over 30 approach.

We copied that too, but basically Fly seems to get decent footy out of a wide range of players: that widens the pool you can recruit from.

Goodwin did great things with a largely drafted pool, hasn't found a way to get much from trade ins like Grundy and Big Ben.

Chris Scott

Chris Scott

Age

47

Ht

182cm

Wt

89kg

Pos.

Fwd

Career

Season

Last 5

D

16.6

4star

K

11.2

4star

HB

5.4

4star

M

5.1

5star

T

1.6

4star

G

0.4

3star

No current season stats available

D

13.2

4star

K

10.2

4star

HB

3.0

3star

M

2.2

3star

T

2.8

5star

G

0.4

3star

(and his team ) remains the gold standard here, Cats seem to develop draftees, trades(especially the oldies) and rookies really well, and adapt their plan or the players style so they can contribute. Done it for a decade, horrible personality but what a coach.

Likewise Clarckson has a superb track record when he has a "good cop" assistant. He and Dimma have less longevity than Scott but they might do it all again.

 

[Lionheart182]

The premise of it does.
Looking at underrated/or flawed types and lower budget players to fulfil a role in the team over a established big name who may do it slightly better but statistically only marginally so.

That isn’t Moneyball though. Every team is constantly looking for value picks. The difference is with baseball you can use advanced analytics a lot better than you can in a sport like AFL

 

[PowerfulPies2023]

Collingwood’s top 2 rated players in the Grand Final essentially cost them 2 third rounders (Mitchell) and a second rounder (Hill). Throw in a SSP (Markov) in February and a FA (McStay) who helped get them there. You’ve got some key ingredients that made a premiership recipe - all for a couple of packets of twisties.

Is this the path we’ll be seeing a lot more clubs go down? Particularly with North’s next couple of drafts and the inception of the Tasmanian team?

Brisbane did it to a lesser extent, when looking at Gunston (Hodge before him), McKenna and Lyons. I wouldn’t include Charlie, Joey and Dunkley as they came at a premium.

Which team has tried the moneyball approach and failed? Which team has done the same and succeeded?

This is on the MB and not the drafts/trading one because I’m not talking about specific trades/trading, I’m talking more so about club strategy around their list management.

The Oakland A's.

 

[loki04]

That isn’t Moneyball though. Every team is constantly looking for value picks. The difference is with baseball you can use advanced analytics a lot better than you can in a sport like AFL

It is basically the premise of money ball.

Use stats to put players in a role that will statically lead to more (runs) wins regardless of that players status or where they came from or how little they are paid.

They use stats to go after players basically being paid peanuts to fulfill a role in the team that a more fancied player earning huge money is performing either to same or slightly lesser levels to get on "base" which led to more runs and aka more wins.


In afl that can apply to players who may have garnered more reputation/acclaim and cap space due to it, who invariably performs within reason to a lesser player who excells at one role but is poor in other areas.
Over all said player is a lesser player bit in a particular role maybe better then the more balanced player.

 

[loki04]

That isn’t Moneyball though. Every team is constantly looking for value picks. The difference is with baseball you can use advanced analytics a lot better than you can in a sport like AFL

I'm not talking about value picks.
I'm talking about specific players targeted to excell at a specific role at the expense of an all round better player, playing the same role but less specialised for a targeted roll at greater cost.

 

[Lionheart182]

It is basically the premise of money ball.

Use stats to put players in a role that will statically lead to more (runs) wins regardless of that players status or where they came from or how little they are paid.

They use stats to go after players basically being paid peanuts to fulfill a role in the team that a more fancied player earning huge money is performing either to same or slightly lesser levels to get on "base" which led to more runs and aka more wins.


In afl that can apply to players who may have garnered more reputation/acclaim and cap space due to it, who invariably performs within reason to a lesser player who excells at one role but is poor in other areas.
Over all said player is a lesser player bit in a particular role maybe better then the more balanced player.

What advanced stats do you think are needed to identify Bobby Hill and Tom Mitchell? Do you even know if they were being ‘paid peanuts’ as you are saying?

I reckon most of the nuffies on Bigfooty would know they are players worth having without even checking Champion Data

 

[Maze]

Average players look good when surrounded by A-graders.

Stop the press...

Yep, it's all irrelevant if you don't have players like Pendelbury, Daicos's, Degoey and Moore. Flags are won by guns with others playing roles

 

[Maze]

Well all the others, not McStay as he was already coming.
What’s Mitchell on $500k? Plus $350k for Grundy. So it allowed you to get Mitchell and an extra $150k in cap space.

Hawks paying some of Mitchell wage

 

[Caligo]

Hawks paying some of Mitchell wage

Not any more. Now the season is over he is off our books completely.

 

[adammania9]

Trading pick 18 and a future first for cooked Dayne Beams was moneyball

The Lions really made us look like fools there. Ely Smith and Deven Robertson have gone on to have crazy good careers