Collingwood’s Moneyball

[PieLebo87]

Collingwood’s top 2 rated players in the Grand Final essentially cost them 2 third rounders (Mitchell) and a second rounder (Hill). Throw in a SSP (Markov) in February and a FA (McStay) who helped get them there. You’ve got some key ingredients that made a premiership recipe - all for a couple of packets of twisties.

Is this the path we’ll be seeing a lot more clubs go down? Particularly with North’s next couple of drafts and the inception of the Tasmanian team?

Brisbane did it to a lesser extent, when looking at Gunston (Hodge before him), McKenna and Lyons. I wouldn’t include Charlie, Joey and Dunkley as they came at a premium.

Which team has tried the moneyball approach and failed? Which team has done the same and succeeded?

This is on the MB and not the drafts/trading one because I’m not talking about specific trades/trading, I’m talking more so about club strategy around their list management.

 

[AndyLucimitis]

...another Collingwod thread

 

[PieLebo87]

...another Collingwod thread

Yeah, when you’re the premiers, people tend to talk about you.

 

[STPer18]

 

[kranky al]

We traded brizzy for yeo for a pick around 30, jetts for Sinclair, redden for 17 to brizzy
, cripps from saints for pick 46, vardy from geelong for nix, hutching from saints for nix, McGovern off the rookie list.

Drafted ourselves with pick 2, 3,3,7 as our only top 10 picks.

 

[BallaratBulldog]

 

[Underarm]

Collingwood’s top 2 rated players in the Grand Final essentially cost them 2 third rounders (Mitchell) and a second rounder (Hill). Throw in a SSP (Markov) in February and a FA (McStay) who helped get them there. You’ve got some key ingredients that made a premiership recipe - all for a couple of packets of twisties.

Is this the path we’ll be seeing a lot more clubs go down? Particularly with North’s next couple of drafts and the inception of the Tasmanian team?

Brisbane did it to a lesser extent, when looking at Gunston (Hodge before him), McKenna and Lyons. I wouldn’t include Charlie, Joey and Dunkley as they came at a premium.

Which team has tried the moneyball approach and failed? Which team has done the same and succeeded?

This is on the MB and not the drafts/trading one because I’m not talking about specific trades/trading, I’m talking more so about club strategy around their list management.

That's not a new phenomenon.
It's too slow to build your side up only on the success of 1st and 2nd round picks. And too expensive.

You need Rookies, trade steals, and mature aged recruits to keep the cap low.

Richmond in 2017 for example had

Grimes (PSD)
Grigg (trade)
Houli (PSD)
Townsend (trade)
Caddy (trade)
Lambert (rookie)
Nankervis (trade)
Castagna (rookie)

All absolute steals we got using methods outside the national draft.

 

[kranky al]

That's not a new phenomenon.
It's too slow to build your side up only on the success of 1st and 2nd round picks. And too expensive.

You need Rookies, trade steals, and mature aged recruits to keep the cap low.

Richmond in 2017 for example had

Grimes (PSD)
Grigg (trade)
Houli (PSD)
Townsend (trade)
Caddy (trade)
Lambert (rookie)
Nankervis (trade)
Castagna (rookie)

All absolute steals we got using methods outside the national draft.

Didn’t realise nank was a trade in. Third rounder too, sydney pineappled there

 

[Dazb86]

Rookies that kick on and good trading are a big part of building a premiership list.

We had Morris, Picken, M.Boyd and JJ all from the rookie list in our flag. I feel like thats what our list at present is missing

 

[Jeremias]

Yeah, when you’re the premiers, people tend to talk about you.

Hence why it's so baffling that some Collingwood shmucks talk about Carlton almost exclusively.

 

[Caligo]

Collingwood’s top 2 rated players in the Grand Final essentially cost them 2 third rounders (Mitchell) and a second rounder (Hill). Throw in a SSP (Markov) in February and a FA (McStay) who helped get them there. You’ve got some key ingredients that made a premiership recipe - all for a couple of packets of twisties.

Is this the path we’ll be seeing a lot more clubs go down? Particularly with North’s next couple of drafts and the inception of the Tasmanian team?

Brisbane did it to a lesser extent, when looking at Gunston (Hodge before him), McKenna and Lyons. I wouldn’t include Charlie, Joey and Dunkley as they came at a premium.

Which team has tried the moneyball approach and failed? Which team has done the same and succeeded?

This is on the MB and not the drafts/trading one because I’m not talking about specific trades/trading, I’m talking more so about club strategy around their list management.

Mcstay was a pretty massive contract for what he has actually given wasn't it?

 

[Magpie Since 1986]

Mcstay was a pretty massive contract for what he has actually given wasn't it?

Reported 600k per season, bargain given we absolutely do not win the flag without him given his performances in the very low scoring QF and PF

 

[Caligo]

Reported 600k per season, bargain given we absolutely do not win the flag without him given his performances in the very low scoring QF and PF

5 years at 600k isn't so bad I agree. I wouldn't call it a bargain though.

 

[bzparkes]

Average players look good when surrounded by A-graders.

Stop the press...

 

[Underarm]

Didn’t realise nank was a trade in. Third rounder too, sydney pineappled there

He was stuck behind Naismith for the 2016 season, so Sydney let him go. Naismith has played about a dozen games since due to injury.

 

[kranky al]

He was stuck behind Naismith for the 2016 season, so Sydney let him go. Naismith has played about a dozen games since due to injury.

They should have said nay smith yay nank








I can only apologise

 

[HTPunter]

5 years at 600k isn't so bad I agree. I wouldn't call it a bargain though.

Especially when his career output is 10 disposals 1 goal a game.

Helpful for structure and overall not a bad player, but paying 600k (above average salary) for below average output is not “moneyball”, it’s actually antithesis to moneyball.

Again, not criticising the decision, just that the term “moneyball” is massively misunderstood by the OP in terms of what it actually means.

 

[HTPunter]

I don’t know any flag teams that haven’t had value picks.

Cats 2022 for example had mature aged Tom Stewart with pick 40 (3rd rounder), Jake Kolodjashnij

8

Jake Kolodjashnij

Age

28

Ht

193cm

Wt

100kg

Pos.

Def

Career

Season

Last 5

D

12.4

3star

K

6.9

3star

HB

5.6

4star

M

4.2

4star

T

2.0

4star

MG

148.5

2star

D

10.6

3star

K

7.0

3star

HB

3.6

2star

M

4.6

4star

T

1.2

2star

MG

115.6

2star

D

11.8

3star

K

5.4

2star

HB

6.4

4star

M

2.6

3star

T

3.2

5star

MG

69.4

1star

pick 41 (3rd rounder), Jed Bews

24

Jed Bews

Age

30

Ht

186cm

Wt

90kg

Pos.

Def

Career

Season

Last 5

D

10.9

3star

K

6.1

2star

HB

4.8

3star

M

3.0

3star

T

2.6

4star

MG

178.2

3star

D

9.5

2star

K

7.5

3star

HB

2.0

1star

M

2.3

2star

T

1.7

3star

MG

205.8

3star

D

8.8

3star

K

3.8

2star

HB

5.0

4star

M

2.4

3star

T

3.2

5star

pick 86, Tom Atkins

30

Tom Atkins

Age

28

Ht

180cm

Wt

86kg

Pos.

D/M

Career

Season

Last 5

D

11.5

3star

K

5.0

2star

HB

6.5

4star

M

1.4

2star

T

4.3

5star

MG

123.5

2star

D

6.5

1star

K

3.0

1star

HB

3.5

2star

M

0.8

1star

T

1.5

2star

MG

100.0

2star

D

11.6

3star

K

5.0

2star

HB

6.6

4star

M

2.0

3star

T

4.8

5star

MG

130.0

3star

as a rookie, Zach Guthrie

39

Zach Guthrie

Age

25

Ht

188cm

Wt

84kg

Pos.

Def

Career

Season

Last 5

D

11.0

3star

K

5.8

2star

HB

5.2

4star

M

3.3

3star

T

1.8

4star

MG

90.0

1star

D

7.0

1star

K

4.0

1star

HB

3.0

2star

M

1.0

1star

T

1.0

2star

MG

90.0

2star

D

10.4

3star

K

3.8

2star

HB

6.6

4star

M

2.0

3star

T

1.6

4star

as a rookie, Brad Close as a rookie, Mark O’Connor as a category B rookie (!), Gary Rohan

23

Gary Rohan

Age

32

Ht

189cm

Wt

92kg

Pos.

Fwd

Career

Season

Last 5

D

9.6

2star

K

6.6

3star

HB

3.0

3star

M

3.3

3star

T

2.5

4star

G

1.0

4star

D

8.8

2star

K

6.0

2star

HB

2.8

2star

M

3.4

3star

T

2.3

3star

G

1.0

4star

D

9.8

3star

K

6.8

3star

HB

3.0

3star

M

2.2

3star

T

4.2

5star

G

1.2

4star

traded for pick 62, Gryan Miers

32

Gryan Miers

Age

25

Ht

179cm

Wt

81kg

Pos.

Fwd

Career

Season

Last 5

D

15.4

4star

K

9.1

4star

HB

6.3

4star

M

4.1

4star

T

1.8

4star

G

1.1

4star

D

15.3

4star

K

9.0

4star

HB

6.3

4star

M

4.6

4star

T

1.6

3star

G

0.9

4star

D

14.4

4star

K

8.4

4star

HB

6.0

4star

M

3.8

4star

T

2.2

4star

G

1.2

4star

pick 57, Tyson Stengle

18

Tyson Stengle

Age

25

Ht

175cm

Wt

71kg

Pos.

Fwd

Career

Season

Last 5

D

9.3

2star

K

5.8

2star

HB

3.5

3star

M

1.8

2star

T

2.4

4star

G

1.1

4star

D

10.3

3star

K

5.3

2star

HB

5.0

3star

M

1.3

1star

T

2.0

3star

G

0.5

4star

D

8.8

3star

K

5.6

3star

HB

3.2

3star

M

1.8

2star

T

2.6

4star

G

1.6

5star

as a DFA. I haven’t bothered to look further but Blicavs and Henry and Stanley and Parfitt probably all came cheap.

 

[HTPunter]

If you merely go with “they helped us win a flag (even if they didn’t play in it)” as a definition of moneyball I guess Nick Daicos & Jordy De Goey are moneyball picks too.

 

[Shane Heard]

...another Collingwod thread

All summer long my friend…unfortunately

 

[PieLebo87]

5 years at 600k isn't so bad I agree. I wouldn't call it a bargain though.

He cost Collingwood nothing in draft/trade capital. That’s a bargain in my books.

McKay is going to cost Essendon $800k a year. McStay is a bargain.

 

[PieLebo87]

He was stuck behind Naismith for the 2016 season, so Sydney let him go. Naismith has played about a dozen games since due to injury.

Nank is one of the underrated trades of the last 15-20 years tbh. It’s common practice for ruckmen to flourish as #1 at their new clubs (Witts, Pittonet, Phillips, Hickey, Ladhams) but Nank’s impact is monumental. Premierships and captaincy

 

[JayJ20]

Collingwood’s top 2 rated players in the Grand Final essentially cost them 2 third rounders (Mitchell) and a second rounder (Hill). Throw in a SSP (Markov) in February and a FA (McStay) who helped get them there. You’ve got some key ingredients that made a premiership recipe - all for a couple of packets of twisties.

Is this the path we’ll be seeing a lot more clubs go down? Particularly with North’s next couple of drafts and the inception of the Tasmanian team?

Brisbane did it to a lesser extent, when looking at Gunston (Hodge before him), McKenna and Lyons. I wouldn’t include Charlie, Joey and Dunkley as they came at a premium.

Which team has tried the moneyball approach and failed? Which team has done the same and succeeded?

This is on the MB and not the drafts/trading one because I’m not talking about specific trades/trading, I’m talking more so about club strategy around their list management.

Collingwood don't make the grand final without N Daicos. Most players can play one good game, but the arrival of Daicos and the improvement of his brother is what made Collingwood rise on the ladder to begin with.

 

[Shane Heard]

Look at our super discount coles 7pm
Bbq Chook acquisition..Nic Martin.

There’s bargains everywhere..right under our noses.

 

[PieLebo87]

Especially when his career output is 10 disposals 1 goal a game.

Helpful for structure and overall not a bad player, but paying 600k (above average salary) for below average output is not “moneyball”, it’s actually antithesis to moneyball.

Again, not criticising the decision, just that the term “moneyball” is massively misunderstood by the OP in terms of what it actually means.

You’re the one who has misunderstood the thread. When you recruit someone via FA, you are getting that player for free. Bobby Hill is now a Norm Smith medalist, and cost Collingwood pick 38. Tom Mitchell was a massive influence in Collingwood winning the premiership and it cost Collingwood picks 41 and 50. In trade value, this is as close to the AFL version of Moneyball as it could get.

If you wanted to relate it to the Oakland/baseball - Mihocek was pick 22 in the rookie draft, Cox was a pick 60 from the rookie draft, Crisp was steak-knives in a deal that also landed JDG, Josh Daicos was a pick in 50s or 60s.