Has collingwood been worked out?

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Kudos to them for pinching a flag last year. Will never be considered one of the great teams to win a flag, but, they did.
Depends on your definition of a great team.

I thought it was the best team I've ever seen us put on the park. Not from a raw talent perspective, not even close. But from a self-belief, connection and composure point of view, absolutely.

That's what was funniest about guys like Steven May saying we weren't the best team, on talent he's right, we weren't close, but that just shows you a champion team will always beat a team of champions. Elite sport is just as much about the head as skills. To call it luck is just a misunderstanding.

We used a lot of mental and emotional energy last year to stay composed throughout the year and other teams just crumbled in front of us. However, that takes a toll and is very hard to replicate, particularly after you win one, and even more so when you don't have talent to fall back on. Right now we are seeing the effects of that and I'm not sure a lot of the older boys will get it back at this point.
 
I will add Hawks of 2018 as well. they won 15 games and got 4th. they won 5 or 6 games by 2 goals or less. 4 of them were by under a goal.
Yes, Hawthorn 2018 is a good example of this. Winning a lot of games closely isn't sustainable in the long run. It takes a lot of effort to constantly come from behind to win closely. Collingwood trailed at 3 quarter time 10 times last year and won 5 of them. It's crazy to think that their record in margins under 10 points across 2022 and 2023 was 17-4 (9-3 in 2022, 8-1 in 2023). If you widen it to 12 points or less, it's 20-4 in only 2 years (11-3 in 2022, 9-1 in 2023). It shows that McRae really instilled that drive and belief in them over the last two years. Probably difficult to do now that they've already reached the summit.

While not as dramatic as Collingwood, I'm interested to see how Carlton and Port Adelaide will fare this year. Port Adelaide were 6-0-2 in games determined by 12 points or less last year, while Carlton were 6-1-0. Carlton in particular already won 2 games by under 6 points (taking their record to 8-1-0 in the last two seasons), so they'd probably want to find a sustainable way of winning this year.
 

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Teams are holding their cool when Pies try and scatter gun through on FWD transition now and they’re not scoring as much as they need to.
Only a matter of time before the close games evened out a little.
Just shows how badly Bris choked in the Granny, no way Collingwood win either of their first two finals without a CHF (Mcstay) and losing a Key Def in the 1st quarter like they did.
Don’t think it was luck they won last year more just about timing and who they played but I think the window is closing.
 
Not much to work out really, they started like a house on fire last season and barely got over the line by the end of it.
 
Winning close games and coming from behind over and over again can't last forever.
and it enables faults to be overlooked since the team is still winning and the coaches tend not to play with winning formulas or scrutinise in fear of messing up a good thing
 
They looked really poor last night. That forward line just looked impotent. Mihochek has been playing to the ceiling of his capability for years from just being super professional, but you cant build a forward line around that.

And the midfield - if that was the only game you ever saw Nick Daicos play you'd wonder what the hype was about. But with JDG playing underwhelmingly, Adams, Crisp middle of the road, Pendlebury slowing right down and Tom Mitchell looking cooked - there's nothing that makes you think their midfield is dynamic and will be in good shape for the next 4-5 years.

Interesting side to watch
 
Such a large amount of players over the hill currently. Their fall will be very dramatic if this keeps up. If I was Collingwood I’d drop down as soon as possible in order to avoid the Tasmanian devils draft concessions. If they try and do a Richmond and top up (Taranto, etc) if could be a very rude awakening when it all comes crashing down. There’s not much more upside to their list anymore.
 
They looked really poor last night. That forward line just looked impotent. Mihochek has been playing to the ceiling of his capability for years from just being super professional, but you cant build a forward line around that.

And the midfield - if that was the only game you ever saw Nick Daicos play you'd wonder what the hype was about. But with JDG playing underwhelmingly, Adams, Crisp middle of the road, Pendlebury slowing right down and Tom Mitchell looking cooked - there's nothing that makes you think their midfield is dynamic and will be in good shape for the next 4-5 years.

Interesting side to watch

Agree with your points but Adams is at the Swans


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Not sure about being worked out I just think they are the worst premiership team of the modern era.

Just a very average team who rode their luck for one season with some help from the men in yellow.

Brisbane must be feeling sick in the guts they let a premiership slip against such an average outfit.
I think it's the Giants who should be sick in the guts.
 
I think there's some similarities to Richmond of the last few years if their senior core has started to fall off a cliff.

They don't have a big bunch of good young players, most of Hill, McCreary are good role players, not players to build a side around. Hill is no Shai Bolton. Daicos x 2 and Quaynor are obviously players to take them forward, but it's a small group.

There's a chance De Goey, Moore, Maynard find themselves in the same spot as Dusty, Lynch and Prestia did. Caught between two generations (Riewoldt, Cotchin, Rance, Edwards vs Pendlebury, Sidebottom, Howe, Elliott, Mitchell) of players and not good enough depth to prevent the big drop off to a bottom 8 side. With the younger generation below them not being good enough to replace the older generation retiring.

Richmond tried to stem the bleeding with Taranto and Hopper, it will be interesting to see if Collingwood go hard at recruitment to try and catch Moore, Maynard, De Goey before they retire or commit to a mini rebuild if this season keeps going the way it looks like it could.

FA (or mortgage their future pick) might be the only option since Freo have Collingwoods first round pick this year and they dont have a Nick Daicos F/S to bail them out this time.
 
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They are just being outworked - same as most teams that lose a game. They are also missing their 2nd KPD and their 2nd KPF.

0-3 puts a lot of pressure on the team to stay healthy and get lucky at times for the rest of the season - 0-4 only adds to pressure, but a win against Brisbane followed by another against Hawthorn and they are 3-2 and the season is back on track.

Only have to look at last year to see two teams that were in bottom 4 at the bye ended up playing prelims - Collingwood are nowhere near that level of desperation.

Chin up wobbles - season isnt over.
 
I think its a combination of preparation and hunger at the moment. Whether they can turn it around asap or not is the question. Running out of games.

Geelong started 0-3 last year.
 
They are just being outworked - same as most teams that lose a game. They are also missing their 2nd KPD and their 2nd KPF.

0-3 puts a lot of pressure on the team to stay healthy and get lucky at times for the rest of the season - 0-4 only adds to pressure, but a win against Brisbane followed by another against Hawthorn and they are 3-2 and the season is back on track.

Only have to look at last year to see two teams that were in bottom 4 at the bye ended up playing prelims - Collingwood are nowhere near that level of desperation.

Chin up wobbles - season isnt over.

I wouldn't describe their next month as easy.

They have :

Brisbane at the Gabba - Desperate for a win themselves
Hawthorn - A side who beat them by 5 goals in Round 21 last year
Power - At the MCG but coming off a bye
Essendon - On Anzac Day, anything can happen. They only beat the Bombers by 2 goals last year themselves.


It would be EXTREMELY long odds, but 0-7 is a remote possibility.
 
You have to question if Maynards non suspension has affected the group. Perhaps the players feel like the are greater than the laws of the game at the moment and feel as if everything will be handed to them on a silver platter.
 

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