Collingwood’s Moneyball

[owen87]

Biggest club in the land gets spoken about often, it’s just the way it is.

I’m sure when Essendon win a final, we’ll all be talking about Essendon.

Collingwood supporters are making the thread about their own team…

 

[Caligo]

Collingwood supporters are making the thread about their own team…

Yes but people are engaging because they are premiers. Just like people engaged about Geelong when they were premiers, or Richmond, or WCE and on forever.

Thinking about how a team made a flag list is always interesting.

For the first time since Geelong over a decade ago, a flag has been built on father sons. This wasn't a moneyball flag (there never had been one).

 

[PieLebo87]

Collingwood supporters are making the thread about their own team…

See the thing is we don’t work as a collective. We don’t have a specific quota we have to stay under as a group.

You’ll find if I have something to share about Collingwood, I’ll post about it. If another person does, that’s on them. It’s not really a big deal. You can simply skip that particular thread and move onto the next one that might interest you. It ain’t rocket science.

 

[owen87]

See the thing is we don’t work as a collective. We don’t have a specific quota we have to stay under as a group.

You’ll find if I have something to share about Collingwood, I’ll post about it. If another person does, that’s on them. It’s not really a big deal. You can simply skip that particular thread and move onto the next one that might interest you. It ain’t rocket science.

Sure. Exactly like Richmond supporters feeling continually compelled to post on the mainboard about whatever brain fart they've had to justify their teams gloriousness that day.

Weirdly it didn't seem to happen as much with Geelong or Melbourne supporters.

 

[PieLebo87]

Sure. Exactly like Richmond supporters feeling continually compelled to post on the mainboard about whatever brain fart they've had to justify their teams gloriousness that day.

You’re turning green. Take a breath.

Weirdly it didn't seem to happen as much with Geelong or Melbourne supporters.

You should apply for a mod position. You seem to monitor these things quite vigorously.

 

[Lionheart182]

Moneyball doesn’t work outside of baseball

 

[owen87]

You’re turning green. Take a breath.



You should apply for a mod position. You seem to monitor these things quite vigorously.

Just looking out for the good of the community, you don’t want to become like Richmond supporters do you?

If you want a genuine discussion topic though: “should Collingwood thank Ned Guy for destroying their salary cap and forcing them to offload high cost players which made them bring in their ‘moneyball’ options?” is the topic you’re after.

 

[Elixuh]

Collingwood drafting Nick Daicos was moneyball

 

[Xtreme]

Biggest club in the land gets spoken about often, it’s just the way it is.

I’m sure when Essendon win a final, we’ll all be talking about Essendon.

Bigfooty's servers may sponatenously combust if/when Essendon win ONE final let alone go all the way and win a grand final too!

 

[PieLebo87]

Just looking out for the good of the community, you don’t want to become like Richmond supporters do you?

Nah, no risk. I think only the salty ones believe it. General feedback around the traps is Collingwood supporters have been modest.

This thread itself isn’t even meant to be about Collingwood. I was wanting to explore the idea around tailored drafting/trading. Only people that are feeling insecure are trying to make it a Collingwood gloating thread.

If you want a genuine discussion topic though: “should Collingwood thank Ned Guy for destroying their salary cap and forcing them to offload high cost players which made them bring in their ‘moneyball’ options?” is the topic you’re after.

Case in point. Salty.

Ps: Nailed it though - those couple of off-seasons paved the way for Graeme Wright and co to go that moneyball approach and make more tactically decisions. Frampton was at the scrape-heap, Markov was the same. Mitchell was very well done by Collingwood. We’ve done well. Who else do you think has done it well previously?

 

[Caligo]

Moneyball doesn’t work outside of baseball

Works really well for cricket too. You need a highly individualised sport.

 

[loki04]

That's not a new phenomenon.
It's too slow to build your side up only on the success of 1st and 2nd round picks. And too expensive.

You need Rookies, trade steals, and mature aged recruits to keep the cap low.

Richmond in 2017 for example had

Grimes (PSD)
Grigg (trade)
Houli (PSD)
Townsend (trade)
Caddy (trade)
Lambert (rookie)
Nankervis (trade)
Castagna (rookie)

All absolute steals we got using methods outside the national draft.

Collingwood 2010 as well had trade ins Jolly and Ball plus a heap of former rookie listed players in the final 22.

 

[loki04]

If you merely go with “they helped us win a flag (even if they didn’t play in it)” as a definition of moneyball I guess Nick Daicos & Jordy De Goey are moneyball picks too.

Grundy big name big $$ out for Cox and Cameron duo, which saved money to land Hill, Mitchell and McStay. For specific roles the list needed on a budget.

It's money ball-ish at least.

 

[HavUEvaSeenTheRain]

I agree with this. However, I actually think Collingwood have 'Moneyballed' their premiership.

To illustrate, I'll use a comparison to my team, Carlton - who finished 3rd and were far off, but got there in a vastly different way.

What I think Collingwood have identified is that several types of players are statistically overrated and overvalued:

• contested midfielders who can win clearances and break from packs (Cripps, Bont, Martin, Dangerfield, Oliver, etc). This is reinforced by umpire voting in the Brownlow heavily skewing to these players
• key position forwards (eg: Curnow, Walker, Cameron, Hawkins). These players typically kick the most goals, often from 1-1 contests.
• Rucks. Sure, they're nice when they dominate, but they don't (and they get injured a lot)

Note Collingwood initially went that route: the paid a big price for Treloar and Beams as contested mids, scrambled to find big forwards and played Moore there early in his career, and of course spent a huge amount on Grundy. And then they pivoted...

What I think they have identified is that Big Forwards have the most advantage against poor opposition who are disorganised, where the Big Guys get a lot of 1-1 contests (ie: Curnow/Walker kicking big bags vs West Coast). Better opposition almost never let Curnow play 1-1; they get 2 or 3 help defenders across, and the deeper you go into finals the more the role of the big forward becomes 'crash packs and bring the ball to ground'. What Collingwood have figured out is that key forwards who are too short / too tall are undervalued. The latter is the Mason Cox effect - Harry McKay is a much better player than Cox, but deep in finals when the ball comes in slow and there are 3 defenders back, they're both equally likely to clunk one (or the difference isn't THAT huge).

Similarly, KF who are 'too short' are massively underrated. This is a ripper because AFL players are unusually tall. Brodie Mihocek is 192cm. That's actually 1cm taller than Tony Lockett, the greatest FF of all time. Mihocek likely played KF all his life, but because he isn't 5cm taller he is undervalued. Will Hoskin-Elliott and Beau McCreery are the same height as Dermott Brereton and 1cm taller than Gary Ablett Sr. Jamie Elliott is really, really short... but capable of being an aerial target nonetheless. All are capable of playing 'tall' and marking the ball, and by hunting that value rather than the single 200cm guy you can spread the 'money' around and have multiple really good options. This, coincidentally, makes it much harder for opposition teams whose defence is based on 'get player Y to sit off his man so they can swing across to help slow defender X deal with Harry McKay'. Those defenders have to adjust and play a different game to normal, and any time you get a team out of their system that tends to be a positive.

Back to contested midfielders: Collingwood have gone away from trying to find their version of Dangerfield and instead gone for two things: good disposal and speed. Their core mids are generally just solid ballwinners - Pendles, Mitchell, Adams won't burst from a pack or do spectacular things, but they are rarely beaten, and they are surrounded by a heap of speed.

Speed is the answer to a lot of things in footy. If Bont is bursting from packs, the answer isn't to have your own Bont (that just turns it into a 50/50 shootout), it is to have quick players on the outside who can rush him and force a rushed kick forward... and then quick defenders who can cover ground and intercept to win the ball back. Speed allows your players to put forward pressure on, to get to their defensive position quicker, to get to more contests...

And good disposal - it's massively underrated generally. Most of the 'burst' midfielders end up kicking under pressure anyway - they might win the ball and slam it foward but not always to advantage. Instead, Collingwood have focused on excellent kicks around the ground. COMBINE good disposal and speed and you have a real system here... you can beat guys to the outside with speed, hit them in stride with good disposal, and create space... which feeds into your multiple mobile 'Key Forwards'... cheap, efficient, effective.

So what have Collingwood spent their savings on? Wildcard or X factor guys like De Goey, retaining Darcy Moore (who is not just one of the best 4-5 defenders in the league, but importantly the FASTEST of them), and the cap flexibility to fill gaps. Need another mid - go get Tom Mitchell. Need an extra body to crash up forward - go get McStay.

Of course, that's the moneyball recipe, but Moneyball was really designed to help minor teams stay competitive, and on top of that you need a dose of luck. Enter their ridiculous father/son and academy run - Moore, the Daicos brothers and Quaynor is a ridiculous set of 'bonus' players, who also happen to play to the strengths of the team.

Any importantly, a coach who can recognise this and play to strengths. Not every team can do this and the 'contested ballwinnders and big forwards' setup won a premiership as recently as 2022 (Geelong). But it is certainly a moneyball approach IMO

I think Collingwood deciding to bring in McStay over keeping Grundy is an example of choosing what is important to winning. Collingwood decided they are better off spending ~$1m on McStay and paying out Grundy rather then have Grundy in the side.

What I always wonder after very close games like the GWS or Lions games which require an element of luck or show there is very little between the sides is, had Collingwood lost what would be the reason for it? I’m sure had they lost the spotlight would be on certain elements of their side?
Every side that ever wins a grand final have strengths and weaknesses and you could argue they have a “moneyball” approach around how they built a list capable of winning it.

 

[HavUEvaSeenTheRain]

Grundy big name big $$ out for Cox and Cameron duo, which saved money to land Hill, Mitchell and McStay. For specific roles the list needed on a budget.

It's money ball-ish at least.

Grundy pretty much only got you McStay.

 

[PieLebo87]

Grundy pretty much only got you McStay.

We wouldn’t have Tom Mitchell if we had Grundy. Tom Mitchell just finished top 5 in our B&F and was a massive factor in our premiership.

Cost us picks 41 and 50 I believe.

 

[Caligo]

We wouldn’t have Tom Mitchell if we had Grundy. Tom Mitchell just finished top 5 in our B&F and was a massive factor in our premiership.

Cost us picks 41 and 50 I believe.

We did try to tell you it was an insane deal and you were absolutely robbing us blind. Mind boggling.

 

[HavUEvaSeenTheRain]

We wouldn’t have Tom Mitchell if we had Grundy. Tom Mitchell just finished top 5 in our B&F and was a massive factor in our premiership.

Cost us picks 41 and 50 I believe.

Why wouldn’t you have Mitchell?

 

[PieLebo87]

We did try to tell you it was an insane deal and you were absolutely robbing us blind. Mind boggling.

I knew from the get go that he’d be a handy pick up and it would be cheap. We needed a bull inside to help release JDG. You won’t find too many Collingwood supporters complaining about that trade - it was always going to be fairly cheap. Hawks generally trade very fairly.

 

[PieLebo87]

Why wouldn’t you have Mitchell?

We wouldn’t have fit him into our cap if we’d kept Grundy.

McStay was effectively signed by Collingwood fairly ‘early’ in 2022 - long before the Grundy trade grew legs.

 

[HavUEvaSeenTheRain]

We wouldn’t have fit him into our cap if we’d kept Grundy.

McStay was effectively signed by Collingwood fairly ‘early’ in 2022 - long before the Grundy trade grew legs.

Well you couldn’t have McStay, Grundy and Mitchell but you could have Grundy and Mitchell.

Grundy was on ~$1m
McStay is on ~$600k + still paying Grundy $350k = $950k.
It’s pretty much a straight swap, Grundy for McStay

 

[PieLebo87]

Well you couldn’t have McStay, Grundy and Mitchell but you could have Grundy and Mitchell.

Grundy was on ~$1m
McStay is on ~$600k + still paying Grundy $350k = $950k.
It’s pretty much a straight swap, Grundy for McStay

Read my second paragraph again.

 

[HavUEvaSeenTheRain]

Read my second paragraph again.

Yeh I guess you took the extra inside mid over the Ruckman and probably help save an extra $150k in cap space. even though that saving is only about 1% of the cap, every bit helps.

 

[Elixuh]

Trading pick 18 and a future first for cooked Dayne Beams

11

Dayne Beams

Age

34

Ht

187cm

Wt

88kg

Pos.

Mid

Career

Season

Last 5

D

25.6

5star

K

13.2

5star

HB

12.4

5star

M

4.5

4star

T

3.6

5star

CL

4.9

5star

No current season stats available

D

15.6

4star

K

6.6

3star

HB

9.0

5star

M

4.6

5star

T

2.6

4star

was moneyball

 

[Chronz]

Bigfooty's servers may sponatenously combust if/when Essendon win ONE final let alone go all the way and win a grand final too!

Servers might be upgraded by then, a few millennia in the future.