Prediction Collingwood for a 3-peat? Too early?

[Gavin Excell]

The thread was started by a Sydney supporter and elicited exactly the responses it sort from the ever-ready pack of nuffies. The only question is why it wasn't relegated to the Bay from the start like other troll threads.

Correct. This is bay13 material.

If anything Collingwood supporters are as grounded as anyone and know full well how hard a flag is to win.

 

[loki04]

It is highly unlikely we are about to go back-to-back let alone with three in a row.

30+
Pendlebury, Sidebottom, Cox, Howe, Mihocek, Mitchell, Elliott.

About to turn 30
Hoskin-Elliott, Crisp, Adams.


How many of Port's older brigade are still their best players? Boak and Jonas are probably not in their best 22.
Dixon will effectively be replaced by Lord and they still have Marshall, Finlayson and Georgiades to keep them strong when he retires.

Collingwood is not able to blow away teams and this is significant. It illustrates they are really not far ahead of most challengers. Certainly not blowing away teams like Hawthorn or Geelong were when they were playing in a lot of grand finals.

It will largely come down to how our trading plays out to replace those 30 plus types as the wane.

That will either have us fall off or stay in the hunt.

 

[loki04]

You dont want to be blowing teams away in June.

Hawks 2012, they had 8 60+ point wins and finished the year with a % of 155...but they didnt win the flag.

Geelong 2008, they had 8 60+ point wins and finished the year with a % of 162...but they didnt win the flag.

Hawks of 2013, they only had 2 60+ point wins and finished the year with a % of 135...they were premiers.

Geelong of 2009, they only had 4 60+ point wins and finished the year with a % of 127...they were premiers.

Pies to date have had 3 60+ point wins and currently have a % of 132.

Like that the Pies a tracking along closer to Hawks 2013 /Cats 2009 instead of the Hawks 2012 / Cats 2008 that were blowing sides away during H&A.

Pies of 2011 also fits unfortunately

 

[DopeMaster]

Correct. This is bay13 material.

If anything Collingwood supporters are as grounded as anyone and know full well how hard a flag is to win.

We’ve lost enough flags over the years to have learned not to go the early crow.

 

[jakson68]

Collingwood are going very well ATM and are clearly a top four side.
Reality is though, if we lose to Port this weekend, then we have lost to the other top three sides.

Long way to go, just to get this years flag, let alone a 3-peat.

Ridiculous thread.
Right up there with the Dusty GOAT debate.

 

[Fadge]

Ridiculous thread.
Right up there with the Dusty GOAT debate.

The only difference is, Collingwood are infinitely more likely to get a Threepeat than Dusty is of being the GOAT.

 

[rapidfire7]

I remember people talking about a St Kilda 3 peat in 2004. Just saying

 

[nannystate]

damn

 

[Sttew]

Something special is brewing at Collingwood
Going to be difficult to beat them come the pointy end of this season and they are only going to get better the next few years.

Their come from behind in the last quarter ability is unmatched and is enough to give them a multi season edge
It’ll take other teams until 2025 to catch up to where Collingwood will be at.

That’s what they said in 2010

 

[doppleganger]

I remember people talking about a St Kilda 3 peat in 2004. Just saying

 

[Carringbush2010]

What everyone apart from Pie fans is a Pie flag ............ because

This club is ahead in every other metric (correct me if I'm wrong)

• Overall wins
• Finals wins
• Finals
• GF's

You name it, we've won em all, apart from flags, win this one and we're undisputed top of the heap. No debate.

/ end Thread.

 

[Irish BlueBagger]

Collingwood for a three peat i doubt it. Collingwood last won back to back flags in 1936!

The Pies are more likely to pull a three peat of grand final defeats out of the bag, a la 1979, 1980 and 1981.

 

[Irish BlueBagger]

If it's another threepeat of GF losses like 1979-81 I'm outta here

I have a small bit of sympathy for the Pies side of that era. It had some fine players, and they did knock Carlton out of the finals in 1978 and 1980!

Obviously you must be a good side to play four grand finals in five years, 1977, 1979, 1980 and 1981, but they just couldn't get over the final hurdle.

Collingwood in that era could easily have won flags in 1977 and 1979. I don't think they could have any complaints about 1980 and 1981 though.

 

[Irish BlueBagger]

The Colliwobbles were buried in October 1990, when we ended a streak of 8 losing Grand Finals.

Our current streak is only at 2, which is pretty good for us...

No you didn't bury them. You've played in six grand finals since then, for a grand total of four defeats, one draw and one win.

The colliwobbles are still very much alive and well.

 

[Gavin Excell]

No you didn't bury them. You've played in six grand finals since then, for a grand total of four defeats, one draw and one win.

The colliwobbles are still very much alive and well.

In those losses was Collingwood considered the outsider?

2002 v Lions big underdogs
2003 v Lions were considered better show, but can't recall if Lions started favourite
2011 v Cats were considered a good chance but Geel was fave
2018 v Eagles- this was probably the one they should have won

 

[paulige]

Yes. Too early.

Ask again in 2 and a bit years, the question will be simpler to answer.

 

[doppleganger]

In those losses was Collingwood considered the outsider?

2002 v Lions big underdogs
2003 v Lions were considered better show, but can't recall if Lions started favourite
2011 v Cats were considered a good chance but Geel was fave
2018 v Eagles- this was probably the one they should have won

2002 Pies finished 4th with just 13 wins, hit a purple patch in finals

2003 Pies finished second, when Rocca was suspended we were done

2011 Pies minor premier, but couldnt beat the Cats all year...one that got away

2018 Pies finished 3rd, Eagles beat us at the G during H&A. That was the Tigers missed flag

2019 actually the one that got away for mine it was wide open that year

 

[Gavin Excell]

Had a quick look Google.
Pies were $1.67 fave morning of the 2018 GF

 

[RocketBooster]

Collingwood wont be worried about the loss to Carlton.
Carlton had their best game of the season and Collingwood had an average game. Kick a few straighter and the result is a win
I like the shutdown of Daicos but Collingwood still has the self belief they will win from any position.

 

[GordonBlue]

Collingwood wont be worried about the loss to Carlton.
Carlton had their best game of the season and Collingwood had an average game. Kick a few straighter and the result is a win
I like the shutdown of Daicos but Collingwood still has the self belief they will win from any position.

If Collingwood are not worried about their inability to defeat contenders (including luckily getting over Port), then may they drown come September

Sent from my Pixel 6 Pro using Tapatalk

 

[Reg Grundy35]

If Collingwood are not worried about their inability to defeat contenders (including luckily getting over Port), then may they drown come September

Sent from my Pixel 6 Pro using Tapatalk

beaten Port twice. not sure where the luck comes in.

 

[PieLebo87]

Had a quick look Google.
Pies were $1.67 fave morning of the 2018 GF

Excuse my ignorance, but don’t bookies account for the $$$ that is coming in and adjust based on that?

For example, Freo has no supporters (hypothetical) but are better than Collingwood out on the field, and the Pies have far more supporters that throw $$$ at the Pies to win, wouldn’t that shorten the odds on the Pies?

$1.67 for Collingwood in 2018 could’ve easily been $1.80-$1.90 if it was Freo playing WCE with no $$$ coming in for them is my thought process, but I could totally be wrong as I’m not a betting pro.

 

[PieLebo87]

In those losses was Collingwood considered the outsider?

2002 v Lions big underdogs
2003 v Lions were considered better show, but can't recall if Lions started favourite
2011 v Cats were considered a good chance but Geel was fave
2018 v Eagles- this was probably the one they should have won

You’ve nailed it, but unfortunately it doesn’t suit the narrative for those that want to troll Collingwood and bring up the ‘Colliwobbles’ like it’s still a thing.

 

[Xtreme]

Collingwood wont be worried about the loss to Carlton.
Carlton had their best game of the season and Collingwood had an average game. Kick a few straighter and the result is a win
I like the shutdown of Daicos but Collingwood still has the self belief they will win from any position.

Premiership is all but Carltons now. Collingwood will rue the loss.

 

[Gavin Excell]

Excuse my ignorance, but don’t bookies account for the $$$ that is coming in and adjust based on that?

For example, Freo has no supporters (hypothetical) but are better than Collingwood out on the field, and the Pies have far more supporters that throw $$$ at the Pies to win, wouldn’t that shorten the odds on the Pies?

$1.67 for Collingwood in 2018 could’ve easily been $1.80-$1.90 if it was Freo playing WCE with no $$$ coming in for them is my thought process, but I could totally be wrong as I’m not a betting pro.

Not really
Most significant betting money would be coming from sections unaligned with the teams playing