Analysis Danger on Tim Kelly + his 2020 contract

[CatToTheFuture]

Scooters WAFL record aka 2nd tier, only 2 appearances in his final year (2015) at the Eagles.

Australian Football - Scott Selwood - Player Bio

australianfootball.com

I stand corrected, for some reason I thought he played half the season. Regardless you landed on your feet

 

[CatToTheFuture]

No coach and no CEO. Who's going to do the negotiating, Hayden Ballantyne? "if yer don't come here I'll scratch your eyes out".

Might be a bit more to it. I remember when port sacked Primus they bounced right back into the 8 and into a prelim the next year. I'd rate the Freo list better than the list port had at the time.

Peter Bell will be negotiating with the Kelly camp. Bell is apparently on good terms with Kelly and his management unlike previous list management at Freo

 

[foxdog50]

No Cookies | Herald Sun

No Cookies

www.heraldsun.com.au

TRADE HQ
Geelong will use Dylan Shiel and Lachie Neale deals as a guide in trade talks on Tim Kelly
What’s Tim Kelly worth in a trade? A former premiership list boss has predicted the Cats will fetch a hefty profit on their initial draft investment.
Jay Clark, Herald Sun
Subscriber only
|
August 21, 2019 3:53pm

NOW PLAYING
Resume

What would Geelong accept for Tim Kelly?
1:32

UP NEXT

• 
  Cowboys star Matt Scott suffers stroke
  4:09
• 
  
  
  
  Cape York near miss
  0:15
• 
  
  
  
  Giant croc caught mauling a pig
  0:12
• 
  
  
  
  Chris Phelan to miss EFL Division 1 finals
  0:18
• 
  
  
  
  Fugitive Jonathan Dick arrested
  0:54
• 
  
  
  
  Kuranda Scenic Rail train journey
  0:23
• 
  
  
  
  George Pell loses appeal over child sexual abuse ruling
  1:57
• 
  
  
  
  Dandenong youth bashing
  1:04
• 
  
  
  
  Gold Coast stripper allegedly glasses Neighbours star
  1:19
• 
  
  
  
  Helicopter used to dry out footy ground
  0:21

Will he stay or will he go? Jon Ralph and Sam Edmund look at the curious case of Tim Kelly, what is he worth and will th...

Geelong will seek two first-round draft picks as a starting point in its end-of-season trade discussions for star midfielder Tim Kelly.
The Cats remain hopeful Kelly will stay at the club for next season, but will have more talks with West Coast and Fremantle about a potential deal to send the gun ballwinner home to Western Australia for family reasons.

CLICK HERE TO SUBSCRIBE TO THE SACKED PODCAST

Unless a player such as West Coast tall Jarrod Brander or Fremantle ruckman Sean Darcy becomes available in trade talks, the Cats will look to land two top-20 choices in return for the 25-year-old.
Geelong officials will have comparable deals for Dylan Shiel (Essendon) and Lachie Neale (Brisbane) from last year’s trade period to use as a benchmark.

Tim Kelly celebrates a goal with Geelong teammate Tom Hawkins. Picture: Quinn Rooney/Getty Images.
While Kelly’s preference is still believed to be West Coast, Fremantle has a stronger hand to negotiate with the Cats as the Dockers currently hold pick No. 6 in the draft.
Kelly’s partner, Caitlin Miller, liked a social media post announcing Ross Lyon’s sacking from the Dockers on Tuesday.
INSIGHT: WHY TIM KELLY’S WA RETURN FAILED LAST YEAR
ROUND 23: ULTIMATE GUIDE TO WHERE YOUR CLUB CAN FINISH


FROM OUR PARTNERS

AFL, NRL, Cricket, F1, Supercars, A-League. Have it all. Get Foxtel Sport today
Former Hawthorn and Port Adelaide premiership list manager and St Kilda Chris Pelchen said Kelly was worth two first-round selections based on his 2018-19 form.
“We don’t know if he (Kelly) will win the best-and-fairest this year, but he’s clearly performing like a top-three or top-four player at the club,” Pelchen told the Herald Sun.
“So, I would think he is worth two first-round draft picks.
“But the only qualification for that is the areas of the first round those picks fall in.
“I think two top-10 picks is too much. But I think one pick inside the top-10 and then a second pick between No. 11- No. 20 would be an equitable position.”

Results
What is Tim Kelly worth in a trade?

Two first-round draft picks
55%

First-round pick and a player
31%

A first-round draft pick
10%

Two second-round draft picks
4%
453 Voters
Geelong has also already had preliminary talks with St Kilda chiefs about a deal for blistering onballer Jack Steven.
Steven, who is contracted for one more year, could net the Saints a second-round pick if the four-time best and fairest winner pursues a move to Geelong.

West Coast’s Jarrod Brander could be of interest to Geelong in a trade. Picture: Michael Dodge/Getty Images.

Fremantle ruckman Sean Darcy has previously been linked with Geelong. Picture: Will Russell/AFL Photos via Getty Images.
Steven, 29, has a missed a big chunk of the 2019 season with mental health issues but fired in the win over Fremantle in his comeback game, kicking three goals in a new forward role.
Geelong held firm on its request to land a top-10 pick for Kelly last year and his value has only increased on the back of a phenomenal second season.
Essendon handed over pick No. 9 in last year’s draft and a future first-round selection (currently No. 12) for Shiel, but received a second-round pick back.
Likewise, Brisbane passed on picks No. 9. No. 16 and No. 55 in return for Neale and No. 30 from the Dockers.
Kelly has produced similar numbers to Shiel and Neale in his excellent second AFL season and is only seven votes behind Western Bulldogs’ Marcus Bontempelli in the AFL Players Association award.
Live stream the 2019 Toyota AFL Premiership Season on KAYO SPORTS. Every match of every round. Live & anytime on your TV or favourite device. Get your 14 day free trial >
West Coast will have to get creative, however, to jump ahead of Fremantle in the Kelly queue in the trade period. The Eagles’ first pick in this year’s draft will come at the back end of the first round (currently No. 16).
Kelly, Neale or Shiel?

2019 season averages

Tim Kelly
Disposals: 25.4
Contested possessions: 11.9
Goals: 0.8
Score involvements: 6.4
Pressure points: 50.7

Lachie Neale
Disposals: 30.3
Contested possessions: 15.7
Goals: 0.5
Score involvements: 6.0
Pressure points: 44.7

Dylan Shiel
Disposals: 26.2
Contested possessions: 11.2
Goals: 0.5
Score involvements: 5.7
Pressure points: 47.3
COMMENTS

 

[Kwality]

I stand corrected, for some reason I thought he played half the season. Regardless you landed on your feet

Remain a fan of anything Selwood, Adam stood up in some of the Eagles tougher times, well remember his attempt to put little bro Joel into the deck at Subi, Joel 1 Adam 0, sadly Scotty has never reached his potential due only to injury, could have gone AA in 2010.
Battle to see any win/loss in this.

 

[Kwality]

West Coast will have to get creative, however, to jump ahead of Fremantle in the Kelly queue in the trade period. The Eagles’ first pick in this year’s draft will come at the back end of the first round (currently No. 16).

West Coast will only win if Freo is/remains unacceptable, but Juddy didnt go the higher bidder did he.

 

[Moley Russels Wart]

Sean Darcy and a first please

 

[catempire]

“I think two top-10 picks is too much. But I think one pick inside the top-10 and then a second pick between No. 11- No. 20 would be an equitable position.”

Probably hard to argue with that given Kelly’s season in totality. Half way through the season I would have said it was unders. But he has fallen away slightly with the team’s form.

So the question is: how can the WA clubs satisfy that? It means any player not worth a top 10 pick is a nonsense offer from West Coast to pair with their first pick. Likewise any Freo player not worth an 11-20 pick is pointless to pair with their first pick.

Other clubs need to get involved? Eg. Hill to Saints, Langdon to Dees.

Future picks?

 

[foxdog50]

West Coast will only win if Freo is/remains unacceptable, but Juddy didnt go the higher bidder did he.

So what do you think is a fair trade?

 

[steady2]

Might be a bit more to it. I remember when port sacked Primus they bounced right back into the 8 and into a prelim the next year. I'd rate the Freo list better than the list port had at the time.

Peter Bell will be negotiating with the Kelly camp. Bell is apparently on good terms with Kelly and his management unlike previous list management at Freo

I'm not sure Peter Bell as General Manager would have the knowledge of and authority over finances which is the role of the CEO. With no CEO you are saying the Board would give Bell that authority? I know Bell has met Kelly, I'm not sure what you mean by "on good terms", do they hang out together?

 

[steady2]

So what do you think is a fair trade?

Darcy and their pick 6.

 

[foxdog50]

Darcy and their pick 6.

Can only hope we get Darcy but I think it's very unlikely

 

[CatToTheFuture]

I'm not sure Peter Bell as General Manager would have the knowledge of and authority over finances which is the role of the CEO. With no CEO you are saying the Board would give Bell that authority? I know Bell has met Kelly, I'm not sure what you mean by "on good terms", do they hang out together?

I remember reading an article last year about how Bell was a mutual acquaintance and there was some connection through WA football land that meant they were friends. Something about bells promotion at Freo that made him more likely to consider them was the gist of the article

With Bell I think he was more the hatchet man cutting the department apart. He's practically running the football club over there at the moment I think. Could just be media hype.

 

[Kwality]

So what do you think is a fair trade?

The best of picks we can muster IF that satisfies the Cats, & I'm thinking they probably already know.
Have the Dogs indicated their interest in Petruchelle, if so pick/s, first or second?
Are any players looking to go home, wanting to look elsewhere?
What players are coming back to WA?
If Gaff were to win a flag, might he want to go home (his Dads health)?

Player managers & list mansgers would already had prelim discussions.

I'm not ducking your question, probably one of those multi player/club deals would give the Cats max return.

 

[foxdog50]

The best of picks we can muster IF that satisfies the Cats, & I'm thinking they probably already know.
Have the Dogs indicated their interest in Petruchelle, if so pick/s, first or second?
Are any players looking to go home, wanting to look elsewhere?
What players are coming back to WA?
If Gaff were to win a flag, might he want to go home (his Dads health)?

Player managers & list mansgers would already had prelim discussions.

I'm not ducking your question, probably one of those multi player/club deals would give the Cats max return.

So what about this year's 1st round pick and next year's first pick, and swap our next year's 3rd round pick for your next rounds 2nd pick

So West Coast - Tim Kelly,
Cats 2019 & 2020 1st round pick,

West Coast. Tim Kelly
Cats. 2019 West Coast 1st Round pick, Jarrod Brander

 

[Jimmy Willis Jawline]

Kelly is a great player there is no doubt. He has been very professional with the way he goes about his footy with all of this going on, but its hard to keep from wondering what he would be like if he committed to the jumper. Footballers who play wearing their business hats dont get the best out of themselves.
Danger is absolutely next level because he plays with passion. Same with Selwood. These blokes BLEED for the club because they love it and want it to go further.
I dont want some bloke playing for us who has it in the back of his head 'well I can always go somewhere else next year'.
I genuinely understand why the cats have crafted such an offer for a talented player like Kelly, but is it the best thing for us to keep a player on the list this way? Just hoping he falls in love with the club?
We already drafted him when noone else did. We already offered him multiple year contracts at decent money. We are already presenting as a top contending premiership side in a club who still reveres its non premiership heroes from many years ago.
I get the go home factor with his family, but that club didnt really push to get him last year as they think he is worth getting for cheap?
WC are pretty happy with what they have so far, and Freo are a complete mess

 

[Kwality]

I get the go home factor with his family, but that club didnt really push to get him last year as they think he is worth getting for cheap?

You really dont get it, otherwise you'd be talking about his family & not the money - everyone is about the same on dollars, there is a salary cap & a discipline about not over paying.
Term will be more important IMHO.

 

[Kwality]

So what about this year's 1st round pick and next year's first pick, and swap our next year's 3rd round pick for your next rounds 2nd pick

So West Coast - Tim Kelly,
Cats 2019 & 2020 1st round pick,

West Coast. Tim Kelly
Cats. 2019 West Coast 1st Round pick, Jarrod Brander

Nice touch Brander, reckon Simmo would crack a smile, seriously not across the swaps you suggest.
Yep, its 2019 not 2018, Kel is worth the next two first rounders, not sure what we can give up to grab Cogs if he comes home.

 

[steady2]

Can only hope we get Darcy but I think it's very unlikely

My hope is we keep Kelly.

 

[steady2]

Kelly is a great player there is no doubt. He has been very professional with the way he goes about his footy with all of this going on, but its hard to keep from wondering what he would be like if he committed to the jumper. Footballers who play wearing their business hats dont get the best out of themselves.
Danger is absolutely next level because he plays with passion. Same with Selwood. These blokes BLEED for the club because they love it and want it to go further.
I dont want some bloke playing for us who has it in the back of his head 'well I can always go somewhere else next year'.
I genuinely understand why the cats have crafted such an offer for a talented player like Kelly, but is it the best thing for us to keep a player on the list this way? Just hoping he falls in love with the club?
We already drafted him when noone else did. We already offered him multiple year contracts at decent money. We are already presenting as a top contending premiership side in a club who still reveres its non premiership heroes from many years ago.
I get the go home factor with his family, but that club didnt really push to get him last year as they think he is worth getting for cheap?
WC are pretty happy with what they have so far, and Freo are a complete mess

On the visit to Perth to play Freo Kelly was interviewed and said, "Frankly I can't think of playing anywhere else at the moment", last year I think his partner Caitlin said something like 'I only wish we could take Geelong and put in WA'. Given his form this year there is no doubt as a professional he has performed to his best.

I remember Nathan Buckley wanting to go to Collingwood, the club he had always barracked for, but there was no way the Pies could get him. A deal was done and Buckley agreed to play one season with the Bears and the Bears would arrange a transfer to the Pies the following year. Buckley was brilliant, won the Rising Star and played as expected of a number one draft pick. These days the expectations on players are quite one-sided when a club trades, dumps, delists players who have given their heart and soul for the club, yet the expectations placed on the players are way beyond the expectations of the club, who simply want to be successful. Yet for all that Hawthorn's brutal treatment of Mitchell, Hodge and Lewis we know those players played to their best for their new clubs but always consider themselves Hawks at heart.

 

[Turbocat]

The best of picks we can muster IF that satisfies the Cats, & I'm thinking they probably already know.
Have the Dogs indicated their interest in Petruchelle, if so pick/s, first or second?
Are any players looking to go home, wanting to look elsewhere?
What players are coming back to WA?
If Gaff were to win a flag, might he want to go home (his Dads health)?

Player managers & list mansgers would already had prelim discussions.

I'm not ducking your question, probably one of those multi player/club deals would give the Cats max return.

The issue for me is that your whole is worth more than your parts. The indivdual players on your list do not really excite me ..yet as a team they play well... let alone the fringe guys. If Petrochellie were to move to a team like the Dogs ..yes that would get you something.. what hard to gauge.. he would be recognissed as a better player now than when drafted but it rarely works that way ..originally a p38 .. with his pace and what he has shown ..only 20 ..who knows what the Dogs are willing to give .maybe their R1 with something going back.. he is contracted so you have hand.. they have 11 and 29 atm.. id have thought 29 would not be enough. Maybe your R2 in play ..

 

[WCE Wizard]

So what about this year's 1st round pick and next year's first pick, and swap our next year's 3rd round pick for your next rounds 2nd pick

So West Coast - Tim Kelly,
Cats 2019 & 2020 1st round pick,

West Coast. Tim Kelly
Cats. 2019 West Coast 1st Round pick, Jarrod Brander

Sounds fair to me, Kelly is a ready made gun, both of the above options sound fair to me. Plus Jarrod Brander is a Geelong boy

 

[Kwality]

The issue for me is that your whole is worth more than your parts. The indivdual players on your list do not really excite me ..yet as a team they play well... let alone the fringe guys. If Petrochellie were to move to a team like the Dogs ..yes that would get you something.. what hard to gauge.. he would be recognissed as a better player now than when drafted but it rarely works that way ..originally a p38 .. with his pace and what he has shown ..only 20 ..who knows what the Dogs are willing to give .maybe their R1 with something going back.. he is contracted so you have hand.. they have 11 and 29 atm.. id have thought 29 would not be enough. Maybe your R2 in play ..

That the Eagles players are under rated or over perform on a regular basis is a problem on BF, dont see your list managers having that problem.

 

[Turbocat]

That the Eagles players are under rated or over perform on a regular basis is a problem on BF, dont see your list managers having that problem.

There is very little to appeal ..a high proportion of WA players ..fringe guys from other states.. and a bunch of players that you would not trade..

If the player that are tradeable are so appealing ..go and get a good pick of Freo..they can stay in WA ..and they will have picks to trade..

 

[Moley Russels Wart]

Kelly is a great player there is no doubt. He has been very professional with the way he goes about his footy with all of this going on, but its hard to keep from wondering what he would be like if he committed to the jumper. Footballers who play wearing their business hats dont get the best out of themselves.
Danger is absolutely next level because he plays with passion. Same with Selwood. These blokes BLEED for the club because they love it and want it to go further.
I dont want some bloke playing for us who has it in the back of his head 'well I can always go somewhere else next year'.
I genuinely understand why the cats have crafted such an offer for a talented player like Kelly, but is it the best thing for us to keep a player on the list this way? Just hoping he falls in love with the club?
We already drafted him when noone else did. We already offered him multiple year contracts at decent money. We are already presenting as a top contending premiership side in a club who still reveres its non premiership heroes from many years ago.
I get the go home factor with his family, but that club didnt really push to get him last year as they think he is worth getting for cheap?
WC are pretty happy with what they have so far, and Freo are a complete mess

Dude is in Brownlow contention in his 2nd season. How good does he have to be for you?

Besides, everyone plays better when there's a contract on the line, once they secure it is when the performance goes down.

 

[Ray Donovan]

Adam Cerra & Fremantle First Round Pick
With a pick swap in 2020 first rounder