December - Forgotten how to bet. #off-spring

[rideclutch]

When I figure it out, 'Bool R4 Shinsky 1x3 play. First two runs better than looks on paper, back in trip last time no help. Winkers on hopefully settle a little closer.

Other than that I'll save my shekels for that magnificent punters track, Friday nights at the Valley...

 

[TheKanga]

I'm waiting for Monday afternoon racing at Mukullarrabookburra

 

[year of the cat]

Petracca disappoints again.

 

[bigpapagman]

Petracca disappoints again.

How is that disappointing? It's obviously just an awful horse that doesn't win.

Took the field @ $2.70 against him. Easy money.

 

[year of the cat]

How is that disappointing? It's obviously just an awful horse that doesn't win.

Took the field @ $2.70 against him. Easy money.

Anytime a $1.40 pop goes down from running a close third to My Poppette a few starts back, in a 'bool maiden, I'd probably call disappointing. Not for you obviously though..

 

[FallingLiefs]

only horse you ever wanted to be on there. Perfect speed in the race and spot to place him.

 

[rideclutch]

only horse you ever wanted to be on there. Perfect speed in the race and spot to place him.

You talking about Profit Share? If so 100% agree, anything more than $1.01 in running was stealing money.

 

[FallingLiefs]

You talking about Profit Share? If so 100% agree, anything more than $1.01 in running was stealing money.

Yes it was, just saw your post in other thread too

 

[BEEG]

Delicacy another s**t barrier draw

 

[FallingLiefs]

Delicacy another s**t barrier draw

barriers generally don't bother me too much especially with get back staying horses went from $5 to $8 just on the draw... overreaction much. Looks a good race what a difference WFA makes.

 

[BEEG]

barriers generally don't bother me too much especially with get back staying horses went from $5 to $8 just on the draw... overreaction much. Looks a good race what a difference WFA makes.

I will be on it but you hope it doesn't get as far back as last time.

 

[FallingLiefs]

At this point in time I think BHB is the bet. Beat them all last week, gets a weight swing and is $9, sounds easy.

Perfect reflection is my tip to win. It's yet to get a fast enough run race to peak in running. Completely untapped, could be a freak. It's better than disposition heading into the same race last year. I'll be doing the form today though.

 

[iluvparis]

barriers generally don't bother me too much especially with get back staying horses went from $5 to $8 just on the draw... overreaction much. Looks a good race what a difference WFA makes.

I know she's had excuses but Delicacy just hasn't lived up to the hype this time in. Good WA horses generally win those races no questions asked. She might prove herself the goods this time around but I'm jumping off.

Has already been proven that Eastern State form looks superior this year which makes Magic Artist the obvious bet so long as he doesn't get caught in the Ascot death trap around the bend. Should have won the LKS and then was excellent dropping back in trip in the Emirates.

 

[FallingLiefs]

I know she's had excuses but Delicacy just hasn't lived up to the hype this time in. Good WA horses generally win those races no questions asked. She might prove herself the goods this time around but I'm jumping off.

bit harsh, broke 11s last 200 in the railway. probably had to run a sub 33 last 6, circling the field to win. Impossible.

 

[iluvparis]

And first up?

 

[FallingLiefs]

And first up?

Off a set-back where it scratched from the prince of wales two weeks earlier (re-trialled) with 8 days of no work, peaked late first up against it's own pattern, on speed over 1400. Beaten 3/4L by a race fit black heart bart at WFA. some excuses, but it's no mug beating her even without the hype thats A grade form.

 

[iluvparis]

Given the second string Eastern state horses that dominated the Railway I'm happy to risk - if she delivers tomorrow good luck to her.

 

[FallingLiefs]

They were absolutely kissed on the dick with track pattern/race tempo. From memory the first 3 past the post were effectively leader, behind leader, behind the horse behind the leader. Messene's form isn't even that bad, it's Shannon (great form race) and Epsom (s**t form race) were rippers. You may also be under rating the strength of the BM 90's in Sydney too. Real quality there this year unlike Melbourne. Not G1 form granted but he simply wouldn't win if the railway was half genuine.

 

[iluvparis]

I've backed Messene twice this prep and seen every start - it is an average horse at best and would not get near them in a Group 1 at Flemington. Also not sure why the Shannon is a great form race. As said on the day I gave it none and the fact it ran so well means I'm pretty much happy to put a line through the WA horses until proven otherwise.

You obviously also missed Good Project getting beat at the Flemington carnival.

 

[FallingLiefs]

I've backed Messene twice this prep and seen every start - it is an average horse at best and would not get near them in a Group 1 at Flemington. Also not sure why the Shannon is a great form race. As said on the day I gave it none and the fact it ran so well means I'm pretty much happy to put a line through the WA horses until proven otherwise.

You obviously also missed Good Project getting beat at the Flemington carnival.

carn. you know the track pattern and terrible ride was an absolute shocker on Good project at Flemington. Benchmark form worked pretty well for Rock Sturdy, beating Magic Artist at flemington

 

[iluvparis]

Yup - with the two genuine Group 1 horses finishing first and second.

 

[iluvparis]

I think it's fair to say you'd have to be disappointed with Delicay's showings so far this spring. I know have been. Especially given they dodged the entire Spring carnival in the East just to set her for this.

 

[FallingLiefs]

Genuinely not. Shouldn't be too many excuses this week though.

 

[rideclutch]

Don't know the WA form that well but surely Delicacy needs 2000m+ at the top level to be justifying her prices?? I just went through her form and I'm not sure where the hype comes from when she's starting at trips shorter than 10f; admittedly I haven't seen all of her races. She can win but the price isn't warranted IMO, not compared to the fave.

I'm with Paris (worryingly) Magic Artist looks to be class, I'd take any price him and if there's a danger from the locals Perfect Reflection looks like she could be anything at this stage, so I'd be with her.

5 lines of analysis and ends up with the 2 faves in an open race... #offspring

 

[iluvparis]

The Betfair Insider has also tipped the German and he is having an awful spring

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