Prediction Do you think we make finals?

[GROTTO]

SB is currently odds of $3.75 for the Crows to MISS THE 8.

I would expect that to move out to $4 after this weekend.

 

[Ciao Giacomo]

MOST LIKELY SCENARIO

R11 West Coast Home W
R12 Sydney Away L *
R13 Brisbane Home W *
R14 Hawthorn Away L *
R16 Richmond Away W
R17 Melbourne Home W *
R18 Western Bulldogs Away L
R19 Gold Coast Home W *
R20 Port Home W *
R21 Hawthorn Home L
R22 West Coast Away W
R23 Collingwood Home L *
R24 North Away W

* 50/50 games

Record: 13-10

6 + 8 = ???????

Before the season I gave a win probability to every game between 0.1 (no chance) and 0.9 (almost certain). After 10 rounds I had us at 5.8 wins so we are about where I expected. After revising the last 13 games based on current form, I predict 13.6 wins. There is likely to be a big difference in ladder position between 13 and 14 wins.

 

[TubbsFarquhar]

Richmond at the G, is no lock either.

In the last 5 H2H games, the Tigers are 4-1.

Fun Facts with Grotto

The last time the Crows beat the Tigers at the G, Thommo and Jericho were are leading goal scorers with 6 and 5 goals respectively.

R11 2008.

To be fair, we've only played them there four times since (2010, 2013, 2017 and 2018).

One of the quirks of the fixture is that we usually play them home (like the Saints) and have rarely played the Dogs at home in recent years.

 

[GROTTO]

BEST CASE SCENARIO

R11 West Coast Home W
R12 Sydney Away L
R13 Brisbane Home W
R14 Hawthorn Away W
R16 Richmond Away W
R17 Melbourne Home W
R18 Western Bulldogs Away L
R19 Gold Coast Home W
R20 Port Home W
R21 Hawthorn Home L
R22 West Coast Away W
R23 Collingwood Home L
R24 North Away W

Record: 15-8

MOST LIKELY SCENARIO

R11 West Coast Home W
R12 Sydney Away L *
R13 Brisbane Home W *
R14 Hawthorn Away L *
R16 Richmond Away W
R17 Melbourne Home W *
R18 Western Bulldogs Away L
R19 Gold Coast Home W *
R20 Port Home W *
R21 Hawthorn Home L
R22 West Coast Away W
R23 Collingwood Home L *
R24 North Away W

* 50/50 games

Record: 13-10

WORST CASE SCENARIO

R11 West Coast Home W
R12 Sydney Away L
R13 Brisbane Home L
R14 Hawthorn Away L
R16 Richmond Away W
R17 Melbourne Home L
R18 Western Bulldogs Away L
R19 Gold Coast Home L
R20 Port Home L
R21 Hawthorn Home L
R22 West Coast Away W
R23 Collingwood Home L
R24 North Away W

Record: 10-13

We struggle in many away games, esp vs middle order sides and we often put up a fight against the top sides. We are terrible at home vs Hawthorn esp in prime time games. We won't beat Collingwood but will fall a kick short. The Bulldogs can be inconsistent but you think they will be too good for us. We'll grind out away wins vs Richmond and West Coast.

Most likely 12 to 13 wins.

So far in 2025, we have been very predictable in every game this year in terms of the likely result.

What should be taken into consideration is the games we are expected to win but lose. Lions, Suns, Power Dees all at home, it really wouldnt surprise me if we lost one or two of these games.

 

[Alwaysacrow]

We will finish 7th or 8th but get smashed week 1 of the finals.
Club will still see it as a huge achievement and sign Nicks for 2 more years because of it

We haven't been smashed in any game this year I think we'll at least be competitive.

 

[BRL121]

Our good percentage could end up being very important.

That's why we need to bank a 10-goal win this week.

 

[kirky]

We haven't been smashed in any game this year I think we'll at least be competitive.

Even on the weekend, we never looked in control, Collingwood always had our measure and felt we were always two goals behind.

 

[MRB37]

I'd say Freo and Sydney are the only teams outside the 8 who could make it in and hs and GWS are the only 2 who will potentially drop out of the 8.

So it's 50/50 at this stage still.

 

[I Lost My Keays]

My estimation is that we will play Geelong at the G

 

[Alwaysacrow]

Even on the weekend, we never looked in control, Collingwood always had our measure and felt we were always two goals behind.

Nevertheless my point stands. We're not far off the best teams.

 

[Southerntakeover]

Nevertheless my point stands. We're not far off the best teams.

Said since 2023, while we lose every single game against them.

0 percent head to head is far off.

 

[1970crow]

That's why we need to bank a 10-goal win this week.

We could rest our 5 best players and still bank a 10 goal win. No point making finals if you get there with a cooked and stale 23.

 

[SugarShane]

Nevertheless my point stands. We're not far off the best teams.

You can argue that most years though.

Close games (or wins) v Top 4 teams

2021
Melb - W by 1
Geel - L by 12
Port - L by 4

2022
Coll - L by 5

2023
Port - W by 31
Coll - L by 1
Bris - W by 17
Coll - L by 2
Melb - L by 4
Bris - L by 6

2024
Port - W by 30
GWS - W by 16
Geel - L by 5
(5th but premiers)
Bris - D
Brid - L by 11

2025
GC - L by 1
Coll - L by 10

If you take out games against Port a pattern emerges. We regularly get close to top 4 teams but are getting no better at actually beating them. We've been "not far" off the top teams for 4 years.

 

[Redline]

Updated my ladder predictor, has us 7th and 4 points ahead of 9th. Likely to be 4 points and %.

Not counting percentage, how many wins do you think we need to make the finals? 14 to guarantee a spot?

 

[BRL121]

Even on the weekend, we never looked in control, Collingwood always had our measure and felt we were always two goals behind.

Yes. We had better players overall, but they were the better team. Their plan was to play a boring game and wait for us to make blunders, which we did superbly.

 

[1970crow]

Not counting percentage, how many wins do you think we need to make the finals? 14 to guarantee a spot?

I have numeous draws in my predictor for what I consider 50/50 games. Giants are 8th on 13.5 wins with Sydney and Freo missing on 13. Gap to Bombers at 11th on 9.5 wins. Which aligns with a post a few above these, Us, GWS, Swans and Freo fighting for 7th and 8th.

 

[SugarShane]

Yes. We had better players overall, but they were the better team. Their plan was to play a boring game and wait for us to make blunders, which we did superbly.

I said it in the game day thread but I'd never seen a Collingwood side look so uninterested in recent times. Half their players looked like they didn't want to be there. Even Sidebottom of all people looked like he didn't care for half the game.

We couldn't make them pay though unfortunately. That one part where Sidebottom shrugged a tackle, then just ambled another 5 metres before Soligo tackled him again, but still couldn't stick the tackle virtually sums up the game.

 

[Mr MysteryGuest]

AFL really have given Nicks an easy path to make the 8.

We still have 6 games where we will go in the heavy favourite.

All he needs is to do then is win one home against Brisbane, gold coast, collingwood or hawthorn and they'll make finals

 

[Alwaysacrow]

You can argue that most years though.

Close games (or wins) v Top 4 teams

2021
Melb - W by 1
Geel - L by 12
Port - L by 4

2022
Coll - L by 5

2023
Port - W by 31
Coll - L by 1
Bris - W by 17
Coll - L by 2
Melb - L by 4
Bris - L by 6

2024
Port - W by 30
GWS - W by 16
Geel - L by 5
(5th but premiers)
Bris - D
Brid - L by 11

2025
GC - L by 1
Coll - L by 10

If you take out games against Port a pattern emerges. We regularly get close to top 4 teams but are getting no better at actually beating them. We've been "not far" off the top teams for 4 years.

Good point but let's face it no team will go winless throughout the entire season. We can only hope that if we play finals we get a match up where we can finally turn the tables. A big hope I know but anything could happen.

 

[kirky]

AFL really have given Nicks an easy path to make the 8.

We still have 6 games where we will go in the heavy favourite.

All he needs is to do then is win one home against Brisbane, gold coast, collingwood or hawthorn and they'll make finals

6 games we will be heavy favourite - West Coast twice, Richmond, Kangaroos and Melbourne - that is 5 so who is the 6th?

 

[GROTTO]

6 games we will be heavy favourite - West Coast twice, Richmond, Kangaroos and Melbourne - that is 5 so who is the 6th?

Why Melbourne?

The last 5 H2H is with the Dees winning 4-1, similarly with the Tigers too. Nicks history suggests we will struggle against these teams.

Sure we may go in as favourites? But heavy? Wowee. Sure we may win, but its not a lock.

In fact I would even argue, there is probably only the two Eagles games are deadset locks for us to win. Dont underestimate the Roos in that final H&A game at Marvel, as that will be "their" GF for the year.

 

[Cromulant]

Why Melbourne?

The last 5 H2H is with the Dees winning 4-1, similarly with the Tigers too. Nicks history suggests we will struggle against these teams.

Sure we may go in as favourites? But heavy? Wowee. Sure we may win, but its not a lock.

In fact I would even argue, there is probably only the two Eagles games are deadset locks for us to win. Dont underestimate the Roos in that final H&A game at Marvel, as that will be "their" GF for the year.

We'd have to be heavy favourites against Richmond on ladder position alone.

 

[PCORF]

Even on the weekend, we never looked in control, Collingwood always had our measure and felt we were always two goals behind.

We were awful against Fremantle. Never in control that night.

 

[kirky]

Why Melbourne?

The last 5 H2H is with the Dees winning 4-1, similarly with the Tigers too. Nicks history suggests we will struggle against these teams.

Sure we may go in as favourites? But heavy? Wowee. Sure we may win, but its not a lock.

In fact I would even argue, there is probably only the two Eagles games are deadset locks for us to win. Dont underestimate the Roos in that final H&A game at Marvel, as that will be "their" GF for the year.

I was just trying to work the “heavy favourites line” and assume those 5 games.

 

[Kane McGoodwin]

Nevertheless my point stands. We're not far off the best teams.

Yeah, we are.

We can't beat the top teams & we are always out coached.