Prediction Do you think we make finals?

[skam85]

Last win by under 2 goals against Collingwood was in 2009

Since then we've gone 0 wins, 1 draw and 7 losses in close games

I can see how you'd take what I wrote as "almost every close game against the Pies we lose"... but I was more referring to our Nicks vs Pies games, almost all of them are close. And all of them are losses.

I have us down as losing this one but if we're serious about the progress we are making and want to be a genuine contender and taken seriously, we win 2/3 of Pies, Brisbane and Sydney.

 

[Scorpus]

I can see how you'd take what I wrote as "almost every close game against the Pies we lose"... but I was more referring to our Nicks vs Pies games, almost all of them are close. And all of them are losses.

I have us down as losing this one but if we're serious about the progress we are making and want to be a genuine contender and taken seriously, we win 2/3 of Pies, Brisbane and Sydney.

That stretch will be very telling.

If we have improved, we win most of those games. If not, and Nicks is the same as always, we'd be odds on to lose all three

 

[TubbsFarquhar]

The Swans game is the big one for me. They're a middling side who has struggled this year and it's a perfect opportunity for Nicks to finally coach a win against them. If we fail again like with the Freo game, then it shows stagnation. As good as the win on Saturday was, Carlton are our bunnies. We need to beat teams we've struggled against to really make the next step forward.

 

[GROTTO]

We almost always lose a close one against the Pies, that by definition is "matching up well".

Fun Facts with Grotto

The Crows have lost the past 5/6 games against the Pies by less than a goal.

 

[GROTTO]

If we beat Collingwood in a couple of weeks we will make the finals.

1 billionth times the charm for Nicks.

Pies making sure they are 100% cherry ripe for their game against the Crows.

 

[Cromulant]

Pies making sure they are 100% cherry ripe for their game against the Crows.

View attachment 2306435

Its a careful balance, I mean a loss does put them back in the pack, Freo HAVE to win that game too.

 

[TubbsFarquhar]

Pies making sure they are 100% cherry ripe for their game against the Crows.

View attachment 2306435

Smart management resting players who aren't 100% and/or old for a Perth match. We did with Fog, but we also played stupidly played Crouch and Murray injured.

de Goey in the middle probably cost them the game on Saturday as he was clearly unfit and a liability.

 

[Scorpus]

Here is my very simple formula

Carlton - 3-0 against Voss
Power - 4-5 against Hinkley
Magpies - 0-5 against McRae
Eagles - untested against McQualter but 5-3 against West Coast
Swans - untested against Cox but 0-6 against Sydney
Lions - 1-1-5 against Fagan
Hawks - 1-3 against Mitchell
Tigers - 0-1 against Yze
Dees - 1-5 against Goodwin
Bulldogs - 2-3 against Beveridge
Suns - 1-5 against Hardwick
Power - 4-5 against Hinkley
Hawks - 1-3 against Mitchell
Eagles - untested against McQualter but 5-3 against West Coast
Magpies - 0-5 against McRae
Kangaroos - 4-1 against Clarkson

Four remaining games against coaches Nicks has a winning record against + Richmond

Three roughly 50-50 matches

Eight matches against coaches Nicks is horrible against. Historically he would win 11% of those matches.

I'll say we win 2 of 3 50-50s, plus the five matches against the poor coaches, and one upset against the difficult coaches, for a total of eight additional wins.

12-11 record and thus missing finals

Three games left against Nicks' bunnies, two 50-50s and Richmond

Eight matches to come against Nicks' many nemeses

 

[Cromulant]

Three games left against Nicks' bunnies, two 50-50s and Richmond

Eight matches to come against Nicks' many nemeses

Think we'll get a minimum of 12 wins from here.

% might be crucial

 

[NCHammertime]

We’ll be fine. 15 wins now

 

[Redline]

You can make a strong case for us to make it but it's always harder when you have to pick a top 8. The Sydney win today keeps them alive The Showdown is huge for both clubs.

In no particular I think the below six clubs will all get at least 14 wins.
Brisbane
Gold Coast
Hawthorn
Geelong
Collingwood
Bulldogs

Fairly obvious but I don't see a way the below 5 clubs can get enough wins
West Coast
Richmond
Essendon
Kangaroos
Melbourne

That leaves seven teams fighting for two spots:

GWS - Not playing well but have a lot of talent.

Sydney - slow start but have an easier month ahead. Should win the next t$hree and then play us.

Freo - Were awful on Friday night but I don't think it's beyond the relms of possibility they get enough home wins and sneak a few away getting the lower teams.

Adelaide.-.50/50

Port - Unlikely but they are a huge momentum team and can.win blocks of games..A bit like Freo I wouldn't put a line through them just yet getting into 8th. Lose the Showdown and they could move to the lower category.

St Kilda - I don't think they will.make it but currently still a.chance

Carlton - Were terrible yesterday but still in contention but unlikely. .A bit like Port a loss this week and they might drop to the lower group.

Today doesn't really change how I see things. I still think there are six certainties to make the top 8. It's between Freo, GWS and us for the last two spots. Thw Swans are still good enough if they can find some form. Port and Carlton are out.

 

[jenny61_99]

Last win by under 2 goals against Collingwood was in 2009

Since then we've gone 0 wins, 1 draw and 7 losses in close games

It’s only a matter of time….

 

[PCORF]

West Coast next weekend. Then a tough 3 game run and we probably need to win 2 of those 3 games before the bye, Swans and Lions best chance.

 

[jenny61_99]

Squiggle ladder predictor has us finishing on 14 wins in 6th spot. An elimination final against Hawthorn in Adelaide.

 

[Minor Threat]

We will finish 7th or 8th but get smashed week 1 of the finals.
Club will still see it as a huge achievement and sign Nicks for 2 more years because of it

 

[WetCrow1991]

It’s only a matter of time….

Only a matter of sacking the losers in the coaching box.

 

[WetCrow1991]

Squiggle ladder predictor has us finishing on 14 wins in 6th spot. An elimination final against Hawthorn in Adelaide.

It has been wrong about us previously.

 

[PCORF]

Squiggle ladder predictor has us finishing on 14 wins in 6th spot. An elimination final against Hawthorn in Adelaide.

If it is Hawthorn at home, it is probably one and done.

 

[Rank]

The only decent team we've beat is GWS at home who are struggling at the moment, I doubt we would have beat them away. And have lost against any decent team away.
If we can't beat Sydney in a fortnight we won't and don't deserve to make the 8, I think we will though.
To make top 6 we will have to also win one against either Hawks away or Bulldogs away. To make top 4 we would have to win both and win all our home games.

The losses against Geelong after being over 5 goals up and Fremantle when they were struggling are costly.

 

[Kane McGoodwin]

The percentage story v ladder position.

None of the teams from Saints down are good enough to make finals, including 10th placed Dons who have a game in hand. Their ladder position is overstated by easy draw so far.

Dogs, Suns & Pies all looking strong for a top 4 finish.

Lions with only 7th best percentage probably come home stronger as likely having a premiership hangover & just doing what is needed by winning most games but not by big margins.

We are looking likely for bottom part of top 8 with Hawks & Cats.

Leaves GWS, Blues, Swans & Dockers fighting for last finals spot. Blues & Swans going to rue dropping games.

1 133 Bulldogs 5th
2 132 Suns 3rd with game in hand so likely 1st
3 129 Pies 1st, but likely 2nd
---
4 125 Crows 6th
5 124 Hawks 4th
6 123 Cats 7th
---
7 110 Lions 1st!, but likely 2nd
8 107 GWS 8th
9 107 Blues 11th
---
10 100 Dockers 9th
11 99 Swans 12th
----
12 91 Saints 13th
-----
13 83 Dees 14th
14 82 Power 15th
15 81 Dons 10th! With game in hand.
16 80 Roos 17th

17 69 Tigers 16th
18 67 Weagles 18th

 

[Samcro24]

As the ladder takes shape:

Wins: 8th 10th 11th 13th 15th 17th

Loses: 1st 3rd 7th 9th

 

[1970crow]

Updated my ladder predictor, has us 7th and 4 points ahead of 9th. Likely to be 4 points and %.

 

[Kane McGoodwin]

Updated my ladder predictor, has us 7th and 4 points ahead of 9th. Likely to be 4 points and %.

Our good percentage could end up being very important.

 

[PCORF]

BEST CASE SCENARIO

R11 West Coast Home W
R12 Sydney Away L
R13 Brisbane Home W
R14 Hawthorn Away W
R16 Richmond Away W
R17 Melbourne Home W
R18 Western Bulldogs Away L
R19 Gold Coast Home W
R20 Port Home W
R21 Hawthorn Home L
R22 West Coast Away W
R23 Collingwood Home L
R24 North Away W

Record: 15-8

MOST LIKELY SCENARIO

R11 West Coast Home W
R12 Sydney Away L *
R13 Brisbane Home W *
R14 Hawthorn Away L *
R16 Richmond Away W
R17 Melbourne Home W *
R18 Western Bulldogs Away L
R19 Gold Coast Home W *
R20 Port Home W *
R21 Hawthorn Home L
R22 West Coast Away W
R23 Collingwood Home L *
R24 North Away W

* 50/50 games

Record: 13-10

WORST CASE SCENARIO

R11 West Coast Home W
R12 Sydney Away L
R13 Brisbane Home L
R14 Hawthorn Away L
R16 Richmond Away W
R17 Melbourne Home L
R18 Western Bulldogs Away L
R19 Gold Coast Home L
R20 Port Home L
R21 Hawthorn Home L
R22 West Coast Away W
R23 Collingwood Home L
R24 North Away W

Record: 10-13

We struggle in many away games, esp vs middle order sides and we often put up a fight against the top sides. We are terrible at home vs Hawthorn esp in prime time games. We won't beat Collingwood but will fall a kick short. The Bulldogs can be inconsistent but you think they will be too good for us. We'll grind out away wins vs Richmond and West Coast.

Most likely 12 to 13 wins.

 

[GROTTO]

Three games left against Nicks' bunnies, two 50-50s and Richmond

Eight matches to come against Nicks' many nemeses

Richmond at the G, is no lock either.

In the last 5 H2H games, the Tigers are 4-1.

Fun Facts with Grotto

The last time the Crows beat the Tigers at the G, Thommo and Jericho were are leading goal scorers with 6 and 5 goals respectively.

R11 2008.