Prediction Do you think we make finals?

[WetCrow1991]

**** no.

 

[pjcrows]

Ask me on Friday at about 10:30pm.

Our survey says...

 

[Scorpus]

Here is my very simple formula

Carlton - 3-0 against Voss
Power - 4-5 against Hinkley
Magpies - 0-5 against McRae
Eagles - untested against McQualter but 5-3 against West Coast
Swans - untested against Cox but 0-6 against Sydney
Lions - 1-1-5 against Fagan
Hawks - 1-3 against Mitchell
Tigers - 0-1 against Yze
Dees - 1-5 against Goodwin
Bulldogs - 2-3 against Beveridge
Suns - 1-5 against Hardwick
Power - 4-5 against Hinkley
Hawks - 1-3 against Mitchell
Eagles - untested against McQualter but 5-3 against West Coast
Magpies - 0-5 against McRae
Kangaroos - 4-1 against Clarkson

Four remaining games against coaches Nicks has a winning record against + Richmond

Three roughly 50-50 matches

Eight matches against coaches Nicks is horrible against. Historically he would win 11% of those matches.

I'll say we win 2 of 3 50-50s, plus the five matches against the poor coaches, and one upset against the difficult coaches, for a total of eight additional wins.

12-11 record and thus missing finals

 

[Burtonsgottago]

No, our midfield can’t match it with the big boys and our coaching is a roadblock to success

 

[Kenny Dee]

We are f*cking Carlton... and I hate Carlton

 

[Bob Neil]

When you look at the teams currently OUT of the 8 it’s hard to believe at least a couple won’t force their way in by the end of the season. My confidence in us retaining our spot is dwindling. Massive game versus Carlton this week. If we slide to 4-4 it’s going to be tough to get back to 3 games over .500 by the end of the season which is probably the minimum needed to make the 8.

 

[Samcro24]

We’re ****ed either way.

Play finals, more nicks.

 

[Syd Crow]

Here is my very simple formula

Carlton - 3-0 against Voss
Power - 4-5 against Hinkley
Magpies - 0-5 against McRae
Eagles - untested against McQualter but 5-3 against West Coast
Swans - untested against Cox but 0-6 against Sydney
Lions - 1-1-5 against Fagan
Hawks - 1-3 against Mitchell
Tigers - 0-1 against Yze
Dees - 1-5 against Goodwin
Bulldogs - 2-3 against Beveridge
Suns - 1-5 against Hardwick
Power - 4-5 against Hinkley
Hawks - 1-3 against Mitchell
Eagles - untested against McQualter but 5-3 against West Coast
Magpies - 0-5 against McRae
Kangaroos - 4-1 against Clarkson

Four remaining games against coaches Nicks has a winning record against + Richmond

Three roughly 50-50 matches

Eight matches against coaches Nicks is horrible against. Historically he would win 11% of those matches.

I'll say we win 2 of 3 50-50s, plus the five matches against the poor coaches, and one upset against the difficult coaches, for a total of eight additional wins.

12-11 record and thus missing finals

I came up with around 11 wins also, basically a repeat of 2023 unless something unexpected happens. When does the AFC pull the plug on the failed Nicks experiment, which has looked doomed for some time now?

 

[skam85]

Haven’t you seen Wayne’s videos yet? We are coached by a genius

one shining light out of a loss is that we won't see him around

 

[George CantStandYa]

one shining light out of a loss is that we won't see him around

Or John

 

[PCORF]

We’re ****ed either way.

Play finals, more nicks.

It will be a one off, then back down again next year. Nicks out after 2026.

Missing in 2025 might be better than making it.

 

[Samcro24]

Missing in 2025 might be better than making it.

Yep

What a shit spot to be in.

 

[JPetro83]

Looking at the fixture.. if we are to make it, we have to win 2 out of the next 3. In typical Crows fashion we cop 3 sides the next 3 weeks on +3 game unbeaten run of games. Carlton and Port were dead and buried a few weeks back now we cop them when they are winning. classic crows.
once the win/loss ratio gets in the negative this time of the season i think you are cooked. if we lose this week (i think we will) the pitch forks will be out cos if we lose this week we will be 4-6 going into the West Coast game.

 

[Cromulant]

If we dont win 2 of the next 3.... no I dont think we make it.

So we'll probably know at about 6pm on Saturday evening.

 

[1970crow]

I still have us making it. Had us losing to Freo and didn’t see anything that requires revisiting my predictor.

 

[Samcro24]

I still have us making it. Had us losing to Freo and didn’t see anything that requires revisiting my predictor.

What’s your tipping like

 

[Kane McGoodwin]

I still have us making it. Had us losing to Freo and didn’t see anything that requires revisiting my predictor.

Our decent percentage may be the difference.

Going to be touch & go.

We are covering the cracks of Nicks though.

 

[1970crow]

What’s your tipping like

Not great, but I use draws in the predictor when I reckon it’s 50:50. That should even out. Confident we’ll beat Blues this week and then have Showdown as a 50:50.

 

[Kane McGoodwin]

Perspective....

Wins v 8th,10th, 11th, 13th, 17th
Losses v 4th, 7th, 9th

 

[Redline]

You can make a strong case for us to make it but it's always harder when you have to pick a top 8. The Sydney win today keeps them alive The Showdown is huge for both clubs.

In no particular I think the below six clubs will all get at least 14 wins.
Brisbane
Gold Coast
Hawthorn
Geelong
Collingwood
Bulldogs

Fairly obvious but I don't see a way the below 5 clubs can get enough wins
West Coast
Richmond
Essendon
Kangaroos
Melbourne

That leaves seven teams fighting for two spots:

GWS - Not playing well but have a lot of talent.

Sydney - slow start but have an easier month ahead. Should win the next t$hree and then play us.

Freo - Were awful on Friday night but I don't think it's beyond the relms of possibility they get enough home wins and sneak a few away getting the lower teams.

Adelaide.-.50/50

Port - Unlikely but they are a huge momentum team and can.win blocks of games..A bit like Freo I wouldn't put a line through them just yet getting into 8th. Lose the Showdown and they could move to the lower category.

St Kilda - I don't think they will.make it but currently still a.chance

Carlton - Were terrible yesterday but still in contention but unlikely. .A bit like Port a loss this week and they might drop to the lower group.

 

[Cromulant]

Perspective....

Wins v 8th,10th, 11th, 13th, 17th
Losses v 4th, 7th, 9th

Buzz kill

 

[JPetro83]

we need to be at least 7-7 going into our bye after the Hawthorn game.

vs Port = 50/50
vs Pies = Loss
vs WC = Win
vs Syd = Loss
vs Bris = 50/50
vs Haw = Loss

 

[1990crow]

we need to be at least 7-7 going into our bye after the Hawthorn game.

vs Port = 50/50
vs Pies = Loss
vs WC = Win
vs Syd = Loss
vs Bris = 50/50
vs Haw = Loss

We should be beating Sydney imo.

 

[Golumless]

We should be beating Sydney imo.

Should be, but it's an away game that is in a month. Plenty of time for Sydney's form to reverse, or ours/their injuries to mount up.

 

[Coopers]

Port seem to always save their season. they were dead and buried at 1-3. will they ever truly slide and suffer like we did 2019-2024? argh!

They nearly folded completely during the Primus years. They have suffered.