Prediction Do you think we make finals?

[AFC979810]

We are not going to agree, but our coaching IQ was at an all-time low in 2024 & we changed to a negative game plan & our scoring suffered.

We are not far away.

I agree we went defensive in 2024. Hence why we went from the #1 scoring offense to the #12 offense in that time.

What I argue with is that Nicks is a defensive coach. Since he was the head coach of the #1 scoring team in 2023 and is again in 2025. Nobody with a brain could argue against that.

This had nothing to do with injuries... that was just the excuse AFC brought out later in the season as a cover-up for extending Nicks for no good reason.

Well it had a small part. TT out is massive. He is 6th in the AFL for goals kicked. Not having him for the first 17 weeks is a massive issue for a side.

 

[kirky]

There were many significant differences.

In 2023 - Tex was on fire. He went from 79 goals to 29 goals in 2024.

Long term injuries were a factor - 2023 TT played 21 games. He was out until round 18. Milera had a great season in 2023 - he played 3 games in 2024. Pedlar went backwards from 2023 to 2024. Rankine missed a heavy chunk of the season.

Combine the above with the fact Nicks is an absolute pork chop and went to a defensive gameplan to start 2024. This cost us the first 4 games of the season and we never had a chance.

So the assistant coaches would rank pretty low on the significant difference scale.

Rankine played the first 10 games of last season and then got injured and suspended. Agree with Tilthorpe - all those forwards are important to our forward structure. Lets not forget we don’t have the spuds like McHenry and Murphy in the forward line now.

Our defensive game plan to start 2024 screwed up our season from which we never recovered.

 

[skam85]

We are not far away.

I agree we went defensive in 2024. Hence why we went from the #1 scoring offense to the #12 offense in that time.

What I argue with is that Nicks is a defensive coach. Since he was the head coach of the #1 scoring team in 2023 and is again in 2025. Nobody with a brain could argue against that.



Well it had a small part. TT out is massive. He is 6th in the AFL for goals kicked. Not having him for the first 17 weeks is a massive issue for a side.

Yep I reckon if we were to rank(ine) the biggest impacts to our rise this year it would be something like this

• Lack of injuries
• Talent acquisition and the double bonus of who they replace
• Natural progression of youth
• An attacking game plan
• Confidence rising from winning previous Nicks 'bogey' fixtures (MCG hoodoo, winning close games, beating Sydney)
• Our fixture
• Murray Davis

 

[Kane McGoodwin]

Yep I reckon if we were to rank(ine) the biggest impacts to our rise this year it would be something like this

• Lack of injuries
• Talent acquisition and the double bonus of who they replace
• Natural progression of youth
• An attacking game plan
• Confidence rising from winning previous Nicks 'bogey' fixtures (MCG hoodoo, winning close games, beating Sydney)
• Our fixture
• Murray Davis

Reckon you are very much understating the influence of Davis.

We clearly have better game plans this year & that wouldn't have happened without him.

 

[PCORF]

A year ago I was thinking maybe this bad 2024 will lead to a better 2025. It's looking alright and we're going to be in the top 4 at the bye regardless of the result.

 

[skam85]

Reckon you are very much understating the influence of Davis.

We clearly have better game plans this year & that wouldn't have happened without him.

No I'm not, he's the 7th most important factor in our rise

 

[Kane McGoodwin]

No I'm not, he's the 7th most important factor in our rise

Imo, he is a more important recruit than any of our 3 players traded in.

He's a reason for #4.

He's also far more important than the draw.

We will agree to disagree, but imo he is a major factor for our improvement, as the remaining coaches lack strategic IQ.

 

[Rotayjay]

I was hoping the arrival of Murray Davis would improve our side, and it looks like it has. We'll never know for sure how much weight he has as a factor unless he leaves abruptly.

 

[Redline]

Apologies if already been discussed but did anyone where the Champion Data guy on SEN tonight? Second worst performing team in the comp when going forward against top 8 teams I think?

 

[Thrillthorpe7]

Apologies if already been discussed but did anyone where the Champion Data guy on SEN tonight? Second worst performing team in the comp when going forward against top 8 teams I think?

Adelaide were named 5th in terms of overall profiles against the top 8. Geelong, Hawks, Brisbane and Collingwood were the top 4.

These stats can get a bit overcomplicated sometimes. The simple facts are that we are number one for points scored, number two for points against, the only team to not lose a game by more than 20 points and sit 3rd after 13 rounds.

 

[cleanhands]

We can’t miss

 

[Doctor B]

We've won 9 games, with upcoming games against the bottom 5 teams.

Melbourne 14th, Port 15th, North 16th, Richmond 17th, West Coast 18th
Then Hawks x 2, Dogs, Gold Coast and Collingwood.

Win 4 against the bottom 5 and 3 against the others, makes 16 wins.

 

[Redline]

Adelaide were named 5th in terms of overall profiles against the top 8. Geelong, Hawks, Brisbane and Collingwood were the top 4.

These stats can get a bit overcomplicated sometimes. The simple facts are that we are number one for points scored, number two for points against, the only team to not lose a game by more than 20 points and sit 3rd after 13 rounds.

I went back and had a listen to the podcast Yep he said all that. He also said

We have the 2nd best defensive profile against the top 9 teams in the competition

We have the 2nd worst forward profile against the top 9 teams in the competition.

The forward 50 functions 4th worst in the competition against the top 9 teams.

 

[kirky]

I went back and had a listen I. The podcast Yep he said all that. He also said

We have the 2nd best defensive profile against the top 9 teams in the competition

We have the 2nd worst forward profile against the top 9 teams in the competition.

The forward 50 functions 4th worst in the competition against the top 9 teams.

What does the last two mean? We can’t score against the top 9 teams? Or is it our efficiency once it is in the forward 50?

 

[Scorpus]

I went back and had a listen I. The podcast Yep he said all that. He also said

We have the 2nd best defensive profile against the top 9 teams in the competition

We have the 2nd worst forward profile against the top 9 teams in the competition.

The forward 50 functions 4th worst in the competition against the top 9 teams.

Case settled then

We are a defensive team

 

[Danger in Texas]

Apologies if already been discussed but did anyone where the Champion Data guy on SEN tonight? Second worst performing team in the comp when going forward against top 8 teams I think?

I laughed when Kane immediately diverted to “the forward line is ToO tAlL”, instead of talking about our ball movement

 

[Thrillthorpe7]

I went back and had a listen to the podcast Yep he said all that. He also said

We have the 2nd best defensive profile against the top 9 teams in the competition

We have the 2nd worst forward profile against the top 9 teams in the competition.

The forward 50 functions 4th worst in the competition against the top 9 teams.

Neither of those things make sense if you then say we are the 5th best overall profile against the top 9. At the end of the day as I said before, our worst loss against any team is 3 goals this year and we’ve been in every single game. I don’t care what the stats say, we are a good team this year and every chance of at least giving ourselves a shot of a prelim.

Wouldn’t it be nice if all the bad luck in our recent Collingwood games reversed in a final and we get on the right side?

3 of our top 9 games have been low scoring games overall too, that would certainly skew numbers when they’ve been stoppage heavy (which would count against you in ball movement stats).

 

[Redline]

What does the last two mean? We can’t score against the top 9 teams? Or is it our efficiency once it is in the forward 50?

Good question. Someone might be able to correct me but I think it might be both. We can't move the ball against the top 9 teams and when we get it in there we can't score.

Kane of course lept all over it that we are too tall. To be fair he didn't focus on Walker just the mix which I tend to agree with. It seemed like Fogerty is the one we need more from.

Obviously our defence has been unreal which we knew.

 

[Redline]

Neither of those things make sense if you then say we are the 5th best overall profile against the top 9.

I think it shows how good our defence has been against the best. To be a serious contender we need that.

 

[Cromulant]

Good question. Someone mught be abke to correct me but I think it might be both. We can't move the ball against the top 9 teams and when we get it in there we can't score.

Kane of course lept all over it that we are too tall. To be fair he didn't focus on Walker just the mix which I tend to agree with. It seemed like Fogerty is the one we need more from.

Obviously our defence has been unreal which we knew.

2 of our games against top 9 sides were played in very ordinary weather and we won them.

We moved the ball reasonably against Collingwood but couldnt hit the side of a barn door, and we scored the best part of 200 points in the 2 games against Geelong and the Suns. Not sure how much credence I put in that particular stat.

Freo we sucked..... big time.

 

[Coopers]

We can’t miss

AFC: Hold my beer

 

[Coopers]

Apologies if already been discussed but did anyone where the Champion Data guy on SEN tonight? Second worst performing team in the comp when going forward against top 8 teams I think?

To be fair, you can probably find lots of weird statistics that we're bad at.

We're objectively bad (eye test at all of the following, because I'm not looking it up):

• Double fisting the ball % instead of uncontested marking it
• Total count of giving away free kicks for lack of intent to keep it in play
• Ground ball gets in away games
• Kick in from points to an uncontested mark
• Marks in defensive 50 by bearded players
• Center corridor uncontested marks by players with a full sleeve tattoo and a criminal history

 

[Mr MysteryGuest]

I went back and had a listen to the podcast Yep he said all that. He also said

We have the 2nd best defensive profile against the top 9 teams in the competition

We have the 2nd worst forward profile against the top 9 teams in the competition.

The forward 50 functions 4th worst in the competition against the top 9 teams.

I wonder what other clubs ratio of games played in the wet against the top 9 is

 

[Redline]

I wonder what other clubs ratio of games played in the wet against the top 9 is

Lots of variables. It also assumes the other top 8 teams have played at the same level each week which isn't the case. Freo played well against us but poor against some others.

The coaching staff weight it up if it us something they to address. I think they do.

 

[CrowToon]

The easiest part of our season is to come but losing to Hawthorn tonight may well have cost us the all important Top 2. Not that we were box seat but if we had a chance we needed to get this one.