Prediction Do you think we make finals?

[Go the Guts]

If we don’t improve defensively, no we won’t.

 

[Greenfinger]

Just re-did ladder predictor and came up with us finishing 9th on 14 wins. It did have Suns playing twice in the last round, so might not be too reliable.

The problem with ladder predictors as tend to favour the favourites and include the many upsets that naturally occur across the season so often end up with a lopsided ladder. I doubt 14 wins would miss finals .

 

[daniel_4tw]

Jesus doom and gloom after a great start to the month.

We looked great against Saints, Essendon and North.

We lost to undefeated Gold Coast by 1 pt in GC after the worst umpiring you’ll ever see (including one in the last minute) without Murray, Rachele and Crouch while playing Murphy.

Then lost to Geelong after a short turn around in the heat after being 30 points up, who are always going to be tough to beat.

We have a reasonably soft draw, yet to play Richmond or West Coast, or Melbourne and Carlton that look trash.

I am extremely confident we’ll make finals. It’s a long season, we’re going to lose a few and that’s ok but writing the team off because two close losses again two in form teams is crazy.

 

[Crow_Magnon]

Reckon we'll make finals, I'd penned the last two games as losses, given the heat in Qld, the short turnaround, and a good opponent in both games. Provided we don't lose key players over the year, I think we'll finish around sixth. Could be higher if we get our midfield mix right. Would love to see Dowling and Bond come in, as I think both proved they can play at the level.

 

[relapse]

60/40 Carlton?
Are you on crack?

60/40 is fair

We'll go in favorites but Carlton could easily hit form between now and then.

 

[GROTTO]

Reckon we'll make finals, I'd penned the last two games as losses, given the heat in Qld, the short turnaround, and a good opponent in both games. Provided we don't lose key players over the year, I think we'll finish around sixth. Could be higher if we get our midfield mix right. Would love to see Dowling and Bond come in, as I think both proved they can play at the level.

The next two weeks will really shape our season.

I have us finishing with 12W, however that includes losing to Giants and Freo.

We are a chance against the Giants given their back to back away trips.

 

[relapse]

The next two weeks will really shape our season.

I have us finishing with 12W, however that includes losing to Giants and Freo.

We are a chance against the Giants given their back to back away trips.

Looking ahead at the games still to come, I even think winning another 9 games could be a stretch.

I think if we lose to GWS and then to Freo our season will be done, 4 straight losses will be enough to destroy our confidence and derail our season.

 

[GROTTO]

Looking ahead at the games still to come, I even think winning another 9 games could be a stretch.

I think if we lose to GWS and then to Freo our season will be done, 4 straight losses will be enough to destroy our confidence and derail our season.

Exactly.

I have us finishing with 12W, I have no idea where the other wins will come from? Dogs at MARS? Pies at AO? They would be huge games for us to win.

Lets not forget we will eventually have another "2024 Tigers Loss" in 2025 to some team this year. I have us winning both Showdowns, but definitely no certainty and beating the Tigers at the G later this year, may not be as easy as it looked a month ago.

 

[1970crow]

The problem with ladder predictors as tend to favour the favourites and include the many upsets that naturally occur across the season so often end up with a lopsided ladder. I doubt 14 wins would miss finals .

It didn’t take long to go awry with port beating hawks.

 

[ABAB]

if we make finals I’d hope the team is in a position mentally and tactically to not just make up the numbers.

"Tactically" we have Nicks so we will more than likely just make up the numbers. If our performance in the 2nd half was due to the condition played the previous week then our best is clearly good enough to make Final but I still don't think it's good enough to carry multiple underperforming senior players with the biggest concern being ROB and Milera then Laird and Crouch who are seen as not only our best 22 but 18.

 

[1970crow]

Jesus doom and gloom after a great start to the month.

We looked great against Saints, Essendon and North.

We lost to undefeated Gold Coast by 1 pt in GC after the worst umpiring you’ll ever see (including one in the last minute) without Murray, Rachele and Crouch while playing Murphy.

Then lost to Geelong after a short turn around in the heat after being 30 points up, who are always going to be tough to beat.

We have a reasonably soft draw, yet to play Richmond or West Coast, or Melbourne and Carlton that look trash.

I am extremely confident we’ll make finals. It’s a long season, we’re going to lose a few and that’s ok but writing the team off because two close losses again two in form teams is crazy.

Bit early to be rating Suns too highly, they’ve beaten us, Melbourne, Eagles and Roos. That’s 14th, 15th, 16th and 17th from last year.

 

[pjcrows]

Reckon we'll make finals, I'd penned the last two games as losses, given the heat in Qld, the short turnaround, and a good opponent in both games. Provided we don't lose key players over the year, I think we'll finish around sixth. Could be higher if we get our midfield mix right. Would love to see Dowling and Bond come in, as I think both proved they can play at the level.

Thankfully we don't play anyone good again.

 

[arrowman]

Sportsbet market below. We're 7th at $1.33. In from $2.40 when I placed my bet at start of season. Below us Freo, Sydney, Bulldogs - our main competition?

 

[Thylacinus]

I think we will find out a lot about us this weekend. Looks like we will be down just the two top 22 players in Rachele and Peatling. We will be coming off a longer break and not traveling, while GWS are coming off a short (6 day) break and traveling two weeks in a row. GWS are quality opposition and a genuine top four team. Win, or run with them, and we deserve to be finalists. Get absolutely smashed and we don't deserve to be there come September.

 

[Kane McGoodwin]

Touch & go.. but we really need to win games like this week coming off the back of consecutive losses.

History says six teams are locked into the eight already. Here’s who we’re picking — Power Rankings

History says six teams are locked into the eight already. Here’s who we’re picking — Power Rankings

www.foxsports.com.au

 

[crowholder]

I think that we need to win one of the next 2 games, which will not be easy. I think that we have missed Rachele. He had been in great form before getting injured and set up a number of goals for us. So if we win one of the next 2, I think we are a fair chance of making the 8. If not, it will be tough.

 

[Crowboto]

This week's game will tell us a lot about where we are headed this year.

 

[adelaidecrows]

This week's game will tell us a lot about where we are headed this year.

at this stage this season is telling me we will be at the grange hotel for mad monday well before grand final day!

 

[WetCrow1991]

It's a very early season defining game against the Giants.

Hopefully 3rd time is the charm for season defining games.

 

[Dangarman]

Curiously, the ladder after R5 is a remarkably good backward looking predictor of wins.

The only matches so far this season that have been lost by the higher placed team (as of R5) are:

Haw (5) beat GWS (3). 33.6% difference.
Port (11) beat Haw (5). 2 wins and % difference
StK (9) beat Geel (6). 28% difference
Syd (10) beat Freo (8). 1 win and % difference
Ess (13) beat Port (11). 5.4% difference, although Ess have played one less game.
Rich (16) beat Carl (14). 44% difference

Only 2 out of 44 games have gone against the higher team where there is currently at least 1 win separating them.

IMO Richmond and Port have pulled off the only upsets based on what we know now.

FWIW my tipping history clearly does not demonstrate the insights of the R5 ladder.

 

[AFC979810]

Curiously, the ladder after R5 is a remarkably good backward looking predictor of wins.

The only matches so far this season that have been lost by the higher placed team (as of R5) are:

Haw (5) beat GWS (3). 33.6% difference.
Port (11) beat Haw (5). 2 wins and % difference
StK (9) beat Geel (6). 28% difference
Syd (10) beat Freo (8). 1 win and % difference
Ess (13) beat Port (11). 5.4% difference, although Ess have played one less game.
Rich (16) beat Carl (14). 44% difference

Only 2 out of 44 games have gone against the higher team where there is currently at least 1 win separating them.

IMO Richmond and Port have pulled off the only upsets based on what we know now.

FWIW my tipping history clearly does not demonstrate the insights of the R5 ladder.

Last year after Round 5 the top 4 was set.

Only Carlton from the bottom 4 of the 8 survived with Melbourne, Fremantle and Gold Coast making way for #10 Brisbane, #11 Bulldogs, #17 Hawthorn.

In 2023 after Round 5 the top 4 was not set, but 6 out of the 8 made the finals with only Essendon (#2) and Adelaide (#7) dropping out for #9 Port and #10 GWS.

Doesn't tell us a lot, but it's better to be in the 8 after 5 rounds than not since 68% of the teams in the 8 after round 5 make the finals.

 

[Redline]

Touch & go.. but we really need to win games like this week coming off the back of consecutive losses.

History says six teams are locked into the eight already. Here’s who we’re picking — Power Rankings

History says six teams are locked into the eight already. Here’s who we’re picking — Power Rankings

www.foxsports.com.au

The easy part is to make a case for us to make the top 8 but harder when you line-up other teams and their claims.

At this early stage all these teams should get at least 14 wins in no order
Brisbane
Gold Coast
GWS
Sydney
Hawks
Geelong
Collingwood

That leaves us, Bulldogs and Freo fighting for one spot.

I don't rate the Saints so I expect them to drop off and win around 10 - 12 games.

Port highly unlikely but based on recent history could make a run if their best players are out there. I doubt it though.

I think we can put a line through these teams winning 14
Kangaroos
Essendon
Carlton
Melbourne
West Coast

 

[Kane McGoodwin]

The easy part is to make a case for us to make the top 8 but harder when you line-up other teams and their claims.

At this early stage all these teams should get at least 14 wins in no order
Brisbane
Gold Coast
GWS
Sydney
Hawks
Geelong
Collingwood

That leaves us, Bulldogs and Freo fighting for one spot.

I don't rate the Saints so I expect them to drop off and win around 10 - 12 games.

Port highly unlikely but based on recent history could make a run if their best players are out there. I doubt it though.

I think we can put a line through these teams winning 14
Kangaroos
Essendon
Carlton
Melbourne
West Coast

Indeed... but I would not have Sydney in the guaranteed 14 wins, rather fighting with us & 2 other sides for last 2 spots.

Really makes it 50/50 of us making it.

Games likes this weekend are a must win.

 

[Punchy Bassett]

To make finals you have to win your home games, we've already lost one, lose this weekend......

 

[Kane McGoodwin]

To make finals you have to win your home games, we've already lost one, lose this weekend......

We are net zero with Dons win... but need to stay on ledger or ahead ideally.