Does it take too long for clubs to rebuild their lists?

[iameviljez]

Yep, it certainly made people sit up and take notice.

Had we have been belted in that final against Geelong, it would have been reasonable to exclude us from being considered a contender.

But for anyone who watched Collingwood in that 2022 finals series, no rational person would have walked away thinking we weren't a contender.

Honestly, ten minutes into that final quarter, the foot was really on our throat and it was just grinding out a win - plus a couple of things going the right way at the right time - that won it. In retrospect, the winner of that game was going to win the flag.

 

[Fadge]

Honestly, ten minutes into that final quarter, the foot was really on our throat and it was just grinding out a win - plus a couple of things going the right way at the right time - that won it. In retrospect, the winner of that game was going to win the flag.

Yep.

We're starting to see finals like that each year.

I felt the same way about the Collingwood v. Melbourne Qualifying Final in 2023. Whoever got through that game was set, and it was a long way back for the loser (including a Preliminary Final in Qld against Brisbane).

For that reason, despite Melbourne not getting past Carlton in the Semi Final, I'm almost inclined to also consider them as a 2023 premiership contender, with Collingwood, Brisbane and GWS.

 

[Freomaniac]

I think so. It’s easy to get stuck in the doldrums & the same mistakes are repeated. North have been stuck with 20-25 clear deadwood players each year for the past 6 years - except the list of 20-25 has been turned over 2 times.

I do strongly disagree with rebuilding clubs trading out current picks for future picks. You’re just setting 1 list spot a year back in development. Think North essentially trading Pickett for Powell.

All the talk is Richmond might trade out a couple of picks for a future pick next year. The only positive with that is that it is likely with North so a probable top 2 pick - but otherwise why would you want to bring in a spuddy DFA/pick 75 to fill out list requirements and then bring in a talented kid next year instead of just bringing in another talented kid this year and getting a season of AFL S&C into them.

That really depends on the situation at the time.

From 2015 to 2018, dockers always traded their future 2nd rounder. Whether they traded a future 2nd for a 2nd rounder in that season or to trade in a player.

You never trade your future 1st while your team is in the bottom 6 or rebuilding a side. I can justify trading a future 2nd for a pick or getting a certain player that fills a need .

 

[Freomaniac]

Honestly, ten minutes into that final quarter, the foot was really on our throat and it was just grinding out a win - plus a couple of things going the right way at the right time - that won it. In retrospect, the winner of that game was going to win the flag.

I still remember that game.

Geelong won that game 11.12.78 to Magpies 10.12.72.

Quater time score cats 1.3.9 to magpies 3.5.23

Half time score was Cats 4.7.31. to magpies 4.8.32.

3 quater time score was cats 7.10.52 to magpies 8.11.59.

I remember seeing that score at 3 quarter time. I thought magpies were gonna kick away and win that game.



Yeah it was low scoring. I was suprised the amount of Behinds kicked. I expected one of those 2 sides that night to kick 14 or 15 goals with the amount of scoring shots both sides had and win by 4 or 5 goals.

 

[Freomaniac]

Geelong also dropped straight out after a flag. Collingwood hasn’t yet had the chance to return to finals in the 2nd year after

Again.... I think Geelongs 2023 season was an aberration.

Cats won the flag in 2022.

Geelong finished 12th in 2023. 10 wins , 12 losses and a draw. They lost a few close games by 12 points or less.

2023 was a tight season. 3 wins and a draw seperated 5th placed Carlton and 14th placed dockers.

in 2024, cats finished 3rd on 15 wins and 8 losses.

4 wins seperated 3rd placed cats and 14th placed demons on 11 wins.

 

[black is White]

Again.... I think Geelongs 2023 season was an aberration.

Cats won the flag in 2022.

Geelong finished 12th in 2023. 10 wins , 12 losses and a draw. They lost a few close games by 12 points or less.

2023 was a tight season. 3 wins and a draw seperated 5th placed Carlton and 14th placed dockers.

in 2024, cats finished 3rd on 15 wins and 8 losses.

4 wins seperated 3rd placed cats and 14th placed demons on 11 wins.

Yeah I'm not aware of a season that's been so close. Teams have definitely caught up to each other and there's fine margins in it now with the best sides able to produce slightly higher quality in patches compared to the team's just behind them. The best teams need a good run and for a lot of things to go their way. Long gone are the days a great Geelong or Hawks side can stroll into finals without any real concerns which we have seen in the recent past. That is a big postive for our game but what will be the most interesting thing is if that means we get more results like the 2016 Bulldogs or will we still have a relatively consistent top 4 with one of them teams winning the big dance.

 

[Freomaniac]

No kidding.

I missed you mate

 

[The Nostradamus]

It does for us apparently 6 years bottom 2

 

[Freomaniac]

It generally seems like it roughly takes 7-8 years to complete a rebuild from start to premiership.

I base that off of:

Melbourne - Rebuild began with the Roos appointment at the end of 2013, won the premiership in the eighth season.

Richmond - Rebuild began roughly end of 2009 with Hardwick’s appointment, won the premiership in the eight season.

West Coast - Rebuild began after the 2008 season, played in a GF in the 7th season, won the premiership in the 10th.

Bulldogs - Rebuild began at the end of 2014, won a premiership in 2016 history suggests they weren’t ready to consistently contend at that point. Returned to GF in 2021, the seventh season.

Adelaide - Rebuild began after 2010 (McLeod, Goodwin, Edwards, Burton, Hentschel retiring), played GF in 2017, the 7th season.

Obviously it all depends on what assets you had to begin with, but 7-8 years seems to be the rough average. Which makes sense because if you hit the pointy end of the draft for 3 years at the start of your rebuild then those players are in their mid 20s and in their prime.

Of clubs that have had repeated top four finishes in that time (I’ve left Geelong out as they’re somewhat of an anomaly the way they’ve elected to continually “reload” with older talent) it seems teams tend to spend on average 4-5 years at the top once they get there.

Richmond: 4 seasons (2017-2020)
GWS: 3 out of 4 seasons (2016-2019)
West Coast: 2 out of 4 seasons (2015-2018)
Hawthorn: 5 seasons (2011-2015)
Sydney: 4 out of 5 seasons (2012-2016)

So it seems that teams who are able to stay at the top can generally do so for 4-5 years.

Now all this assumes that you are a well run club who nails your rebuild and maintains the list well once you get to the top, but to me if the ratio is 7-8 years of building to spend 4-5 years at the very top that’s about right IMO.

Obviously I know there are countless examples of clubs who’s rebuilds stall and they have to start again, and clubs who get to the top for a year but can’t maintain it but frankly that’s a good thing. It should be incredibly difficult to win AFL flags and consistently play prelim finals, and therefore there should be lots of failures.

And if you look at North Melbourne and their 1996 squad.... Wayne Carey, John Longmire and Mick Martyn all had their debut games around 1988 or 1989 as 18 year Olds.

West coast eagles had a bunch of 19 to 21 year olds in 1987 , they became 25 to 27 year Olds 6 years later in 1992

 

[Freomaniac]

Freo haven’t made finals yet.

They made finals In 2022

 

[Freomaniac]

2018 - 2022 has been a hard road but many crows fans like myself in 2019 set ourselves for a period of time at the bottom with the rewards to be worth it in the mid 2020s.

That the team appears on the rise in 2023 makes it even sweeter.

Fair enough

 

[Shooter#17]

Depends if you have farms to give players and their families under the table

 

[btdg]

This team should highlight more than anything that the league has got its player movement and list management system wrong.

Go back to the mid 2000s and there was no free agency, and pretty restricted movement of players (trade only). We also had priority picks which had a big impact.

Consider: a footy team needs roughly 30 competent players (23 plus reserves).

Back in 2005 (the last year of the old priority pick rules), the team that finished last got picks 1, 4, 20 and 36, lost no players, and added two mature veterans via a cheap trade and the pre-season draft (which was the only way for out-of-contract players to move). The team that won the premiership got picks 19, 35 and 51. They lost three players to other teams, and added one mature replacement (which cost 19 and 35) and one fringe prospect via PSD, while drafting with picks 51, 54 and 59

16th = two solid role players, picks 1, 4, 20, 36
1st = lost (net) one player, picks 51, 54, 59
You can make a case that 16th made up FIVE players worth of gap on the premier in that draft... By 2009 the team that had finished last had jumped to 7th, while 1st had fallen to 12th

Now have a look at 2024. Suddenly we have academies, free agency, players just walking and demanding trades, trading future picks, etc. There's also 18 teams so even the second, third and fourth picks that the bottom team gets are pushed back. What was the 2024 outcome?

18th = lost FOUR best 22 players to other clubs, shuffled picks around, drafted with 1, 7, 12, 14, 21, 23, 36
1st = lost one fringe player, added a fringe player via PSD, drafted with 5, 25, 42


What is the net result? 18th had a huge haul of draft picks, but even if you are generous and consider anything in the top 30 a 'good enough to play' candidate, they are only up TWO players on their 2025 list (ie: replace Bolton, Graham, Rioli, Baker with, say, 7, 12, 14, 21)
Meanwhile, the premiers, also added picks 5 and 25 and are thus up TWO players on their list.

In 2024, you can make the case that Richmond made up no ground at all on Brisbane - they certainly got further away from 2025-2028, and the ability of Brisbane to add TWO academy prospects in the top 25 of the draft, and slot them into a premiershi plist, is just concerning. The crazy thing is that if you just look at pre-trade draft picks, Brisbane had TWO
picks before Richmond had their second natural pick. Richmond had to sell the farm to have any chance of making up ground via the draft, but were also completely unable to add aynthign via free agency...

This has swung way too far imo - and it is a big reason why teams like Geelong, Sydney, Collingwood are able to stay up year after year. You have to really mess up to fall from the top, and you have to really nail it to get off the bottom.

 

[Mr Meow]

Depends if you have farms to give players and their families under the table

Depends if you're a tanking joke of an organisation like Melbourne, with terrible leaders and culture.

 

[BallaratBulldog]

This is one thing I think Bevo and Sam Power

Sam Power

Age

42

Ht

190cm

Wt

82kg

Pos.

Mid

Career

Season

Last 5

D

14.7

4star

K

7.8

3star

HB

6.9

4star

M

4.2

4star

T

2.0

4star

No current season stats available

D

7.8

2star

K

3.8

2star

HB

4.0

3star

M

1.8

2star

T

1.6

4star

get right. Hasn’t been afraid of turning the list over even if he cops it from everyone (why isn’t macrae/daniel playing in most recent times) then suddenly gets players like freijah and davidson into the team and contributing well for the future.

It does allow the Dogs to stay around the mark instead of bottoming outright for years on end. It has resulted in two grand finals with two different teams and usually always in finals.

Granted our drafting appears decent from some average picks which may not always be the case.

 

[Strapping Young Lad]

They made finals In 2022

That’s nice dear.

 

[Soggy2112]

This team should highlight more than anything that the league has got its player movement and list management system wrong.

Go back to the mid 2000s and there was no free agency, and pretty restricted movement of players (trade only). We also had priority picks which had a big impact.

Consider: a footy team needs roughly 30 competent players (23 plus reserves).

Back in 2005 (the last year of the old priority pick rules), the team that finished last got picks 1, 4, 20 and 36, lost no players, and added two mature veterans via a cheap trade and the pre-season draft (which was the only way for out-of-contract players to move). The team that won the premiership got picks 19, 35 and 51. They lost three players to other teams, and added one mature replacement (which cost 19 and 35) and one fringe prospect via PSD, while drafting with picks 51, 54 and 59

16th = two solid role players, picks 1, 4, 20, 36
1st = lost (net) one player, picks 51, 54, 59
You can make a case that 16th made up FIVE players worth of gap on the premier in that draft... By 2009 the team that had finished last had jumped to 7th, while 1st had fallen to 12th

Now have a look at 2024. Suddenly we have academies, free agency, players just walking and demanding trades, trading future picks, etc. There's also 18 teams so even the second, third and fourth picks that the bottom team gets are pushed back. What was the 2024 outcome?

18th = lost FOUR best 22 players to other clubs, shuffled picks around, drafted with 1, 7, 12, 14, 21, 23, 36
1st = lost one fringe player, added a fringe player via PSD, drafted with 5, 25, 42


What is the net result? 18th had a huge haul of draft picks, but even if you are generous and consider anything in the top 30 a 'good enough to play' candidate, they are only up TWO players on their 2025 list (ie: replace Bolton, Graham, Rioli, Baker with, say, 7, 12, 14, 21)
Meanwhile, the premiers, also added picks 5 and 25 and are thus up TWO players on their list.

In 2024, you can make the case that Richmond made up no ground at all on Brisbane - they certainly got further away from 2025-2028, and the ability of Brisbane to add TWO academy prospects in the top 25 of the draft, and slot them into a premiershi plist, is just concerning. The crazy thing is that if you just look at pre-trade draft picks, Brisbane had TWO
picks before Richmond had their second natural pick. Richmond had to sell the farm to have any chance of making up ground via the draft, but were also completely unable to add aynthign via free agency...

This has swung way too far imo - and it is a big reason why teams like Geelong, Sydney, Collingwood are able to stay up year after year. You have to really mess up to fall from the top, and you have to really nail it to get off the bottom.

While the academy weakens the draft and makes it harder for rebuilding clubs, I disagree that free agency and an increase in player movement between clubs makes it more difficult for a rebuilding club.

If you manage your cap effectively, just by having a weaker, younger list, you will be able to keep the majority of your players, and have cap room left over to chase other ones.

It then all becomes about good list management and recruiting. 20 years ago, we would have been less likely to get Dawson or Rankine, however by picking players at the right age and stage of development, we have helped to move our rebuild along.

If I was in charge, I’d be looking at fixing the academy situation, however I would be saying to clubs that increased player movement is an opportunity for rebuilding clubs, not a challenge to overcome.

 

[Shooter#17]

Depends if you're a tanking joke of an organisation like Melbourne, with terrible leaders and culture.

Let's not forgot the pussies being in the wilderness for 50 years before costa and the dodgy land deals started.. #chests

 

[Mr Meow]

Let's not forgot the pussies being in the wilderness for 50 years before costa and the dodgy land deals started.. #chests

10 grand finals to 1 since 1989. How many spoons have Melbourne won in that time?

 

[Shooter#17]

10 grand finals to 1 since 1989. How many spoons have Melbourne won in that time?

Even picking the year to suit your argument and still get it wrong . How many flags from 1964 to 2006 champ?

 

[Mr Meow]

Even picking the year to suit your argument and still get it wrong . How many flags from 1964 to 2006 champ?

Missed the 2000 massacre, my bad. 10-2. Joke club.

 

[Shooter#17]

Missed the 2000 massacre, my bad. 10-2. Joke club.

No surprise your smooth missed the question again. How many flags for the pussies in the 40 years prior to Costa farm gate starting?

 

[Underdog]

While the academy weakens the draft and makes it harder for rebuilding clubs, I disagree that free agency and an increase in player movement between clubs makes it more difficult for a rebuilding club.

Compensation picks from free agency literally dilute the draft hand of rebuilding clubs. In its current form, free agency rewards those involved in the transaction (one with a player and the other with a compensation pick) and punishes every club that isn't involved in the transaction in the form of weakening their draft hand.

You get a few academy players, father sons, and free agents drafted and you end up in a position where the wooden spooner's 2nd pick is at #30 (like West Coast in 2023). It's absolutely farcical and does impact on a teams ability to rebuild.

 

[quotemokc]

Compensation picks from free agency literally dilute the draft hand of rebuilding clubs. In its current form, free agency rewards those involved in the transaction (one with a player and the other with a compensation pick) and punishes every club that isn't involved in the transaction in the form of weakening their draft hand.

You get a few academy players, father sons, and free agents drafted and you end up in a position where the wooden spooner's 2nd pick is at #30 (like West Coast in 2023). It's absolutely farcical and does impact on a teams ability to rebuild.

There should be FA compo to some degree, but if a player has been on a list for 6+ years and had at least 2 contract extensions then that team has gotten enough value out of the player.

FA doesn't work without enough eligible free agents.

 

[Soggy2112]

Compensation picks from free agency literally dilute the draft hand of rebuilding clubs. In its current form, free agency rewards those involved in the transaction (one with a player and the other with a compensation pick) and punishes every club that isn't involved in the transaction in the form of weakening their draft hand.

You get a few academy players, father sons, and free agents drafted and you end up in a position where the wooden spooner's 2nd pick is at #30 (like West Coast in 2023). It's absolutely farcical and does impact on a teams ability to rebuild.

I agree. I would remove free agency compensation for restricted free agents.