Does the AFL have a blowout problem?

[TwoDivisions]

Reward excellence?

Sure. What could go wrong allowing the back to back premiers to rebuild their midfield with 3 x top 5 picks while they play off in three grand finals in a row.

The AFL set up the draft to get clubs rising and falling in cycles.

So your suggestion we should flip the draft? Premiers get pick 1 as a reward for excellence?

Sure. Great suggestion. Really well thought through.

Can't wait for the next great suggestion.

Poor performing clubs have no incentive to improve and clubs further down the pyramid have no incentive to be better than the poor performers above them.

Why develop young talent when they'll just move on to a cellar dwelling club. Why enter the draft when you'll just end up playing for a team that's not incentivised to win?

It makes no sense. Clubs should NOT be protected from their own incompetence and the game would improve OUT OF SIGHT if those clubs went down where they belong.

 

[Obeanie1]

Poor performing clubs have no incentive to improve and clubs further down the pyramid have no incentive to be better than the poor performers above them.

Why develop young talent when they'll just move on to a cellar dwelling club. Why enter the draft when you'll just end up playing for a team that's not incentivised to win?

It makes no sense. Clubs should NOT be protected from their own incompetence and the game would improve OUT OF SIGHT if those clubs went down where they belong.

Ok. That explains alot.

About you.

One of the most ridiculously dumb posts I've read in a very long time.

Your happy with back to back premiers being allowed to jump the que year in year out and rebuild with elite talent every year based on their post code. Nothing more.

And the teams struggling to rebuild through the draft watch the elite talent again being snapped up by clubs playing finals and winning flags.

And you wonder why the comp is lopsided.

Ok.

 

[TwoDivisions]

Reward excellence?

Sure. What could go wrong allowing the back to back premiers to rebuild their midfield with 3 x top 5 picks while they play off in three grand finals in a row.

The AFL set up the draft to get clubs rising and falling in cycles.

So your suggestion we should flip the draft? Premiers get pick 1 as a reward for excellence?

Sure. Great suggestion. Really well thought through.

Can't wait for the next great suggestion.

Scrap the draft entirely and have an Academy system where clubs are directly responsible for youth development. Split the AFL into two divisions of ten clubs, home and away regular season matches with promotion and relegation in play.

Top five in div one play in the finals. Tenth club automatically relegated. 6th-9th playoff for the remaining relegation spot.

Div 2 champions automatically promoted. 2nd-5th play off for the remaining promotion spot. 6th-9th relegation play off, losers progress. Tenth and playoff losers enter seeded into an end of season playoff carnival with the state finalists for the two promotion spots in div 2 next season.

Every game has something riding on it. The two divisions will be MUCH more evenly matched and nobody has to relocate across country to a club they have no interest in UNLESS THEY WANT TO.

But if you want to keep propping up badly run clubs (I'm looking at you, Carlton) then sure. Maintain this mediocre status quo and see what happens.

 

[TwoDivisions]

Ok. That explains alot.

About you.

One of the most ridiculously dumb posts I've read in a very long time.

Your happy with back to back premiers being allowed to jump the que year in year out and rebuild with elite talent every year based on their post code. Nothing more.

And the teams struggling to rebuild through the draft watch the elite talent again being snapped up by clubs playing finals and winning flags.

And you wonder why the comp is lopsided.

Ok.

I'm happy for any club with the expertise and compentancy to win any number of premierships IN A FAIR FIGHT.

The problem with the way the game is run at the moment is this: If your club has no chance of finishing in the top four by round six, you are doing your club a disservice by winning any more games. Tank it from there and tank heavily and you'll get the chocolates.

 

[TwoDivisions]

Ok. That explains alot.

About you.

One of the most ridiculously dumb posts I've read in a very long time.

Your happy with back to back premiers being allowed to jump the que year in year out and rebuild with elite talent every year based on their post code. Nothing more.

And the teams struggling to rebuild through the draft watch the elite talent again being snapped up by clubs playing finals and winning flags.

And you wonder why the comp is lopsided.

Ok.

THE COMP IS LOPSIDED BECAUSE TOO MANY TEAMS WITH GREAT LISTS ARE PLAYING TOO MANY TEAMS WITH CRAP LISTS!


The AFL protects incompetance and punishes excellence AND THAT'S JUST A FACT.

 

[TwoDivisions]

Ok. That explains alot.

About you.

One of the most ridiculously dumb posts I've read in a very long time.

Your happy with back to back premiers being allowed to jump the que year in year out and rebuild with elite talent every year based on their post code. Nothing more.

And the teams struggling to rebuild through the draft watch the elite talent again being snapped up by clubs playing finals and winning flags.

And you wonder why the comp is lopsided.

Ok.

One more common sense reform for you to consider.

Members own their clubs.

This will ensure that club CEOs are answerable to their fans instead of a faceless board that keep voting for their seven figure renumberation packages. More members, more financial clout. Billionaires and garbos get one vote each.

For my next trick...

 

[Purple Suit]

Scrap the draft entirely and have an Academy system where clubs are directly responsible for youth development. Split the AFL into two divisions of ten clubs, home and away regular season matches with promotion and relegation in play.

Top five in div one play in the finals. Tenth club automatically relegated. 6th-9th playoff for the remaining relegation spot.

Div 2 champions automatically promoted. 2nd-5th play off for the remaining promotion spot. 6th-9th relegation play off, losers progress. Tenth and playoff losers enter seeded into an end of season playoff carnival with the state finalists for the two promotion spots in div 2 next season.

Every game has something riding on it. The two divisions will be MUCH more evenly matched and nobody has to relocate across country to a club they have no interest in UNLESS THEY WANT TO.

But if you want to keep propping up badly run clubs (I'm looking at you, Carlton) then sure. Maintain this mediocre status quo and see what happens.

But your system would have moved Carlton/Saints into divy 1 and relegated the Swans and Dogs. So they have a wasted year with not much hope.

It’s based of the EPL where there are blowouts all the time. The bottom 5 teams suck, the top 5 teams are massively in front of the rest. It doesn’t solve anything.

 

[Obeanie1]

THE COMP IS LOPSIDED BECAUSE TOO MANY TEAMS WITH GREAT LISTS ARE PLAYING TOO MANY TEAMS WITH CRAP LISTS!


The AFL protects incompetance and punishes excellence AND THAT'S JUST A FACT.

A fact?

The AFL is punishing the excellence of the Lions by allowing them to land 3 x top 5 picks while playing in 3 grand finals in a row?

Explain how that works?

It doesn't. It's a flawed policy that has contributed to this lop sided competition.

The strong clubs just get stronger landing elite talent jumping the que and attracting free agents. The bottom clubs getting zero assistance sift through what's left and decent players aren't interested until improvement starts.

That is what has happened and is happening.

And if a struggling club who gets no assistance stuffs up a couple of draft picks selecting from the " left overs" you think that's all on them?

Maybe if they had access to the best players they would........you know......improve and become more competitive?

Pretty simple concept.

 

[TwoDivisions]

But your system would have moved Carlton/Saints into divy 1 and relegated the Swans and Dogs. So they have a wasted year with not much hope.

It’s based of the EPL where there are blowouts all the time. The bottom 5 teams suck, the top 5 teams are massively in front of the rest. It doesn’t solve anything.

This is just factually incorrect.

First let's define what consitutes a blowout. I propose two data points for both codes.

Intermediate blowout (soccer - 3 goals, AFL 45 points)
Full blowout (Soccer 4+, AFL 60+ points)

Obviously, these comparisons don't tell the full story, particularly with soccer as the low scoring nature of the game means that a team can overcome a three goal deficit in the space of ten minutes (or less) and draws are a factor, but for this purpose we'll mark those differences as caveats and move on. It should also be noted that more goals are scored in the second half of soccer matches as defenders legs grow tired and fresh legs from subs come into play.

In the Premier League last season, only six Premier League games in the 2025/26 season were won by a margin of four or more goals. This remarkably low figure indicates a highly competitive season, representing one of the lowest frequencies of such high-margin wins in the last 10 years at 1.5%

The number of intermediate blowout games was 77, representing 20.2% of all results. Combined percentage comes to 21.7%

In the AFL, there were 52 full blowouts, representing 24% of all results. Intermediate blowouts totalled 35, representing 16.2% of results. Combined percentage comes to a staggering 40.2% of all games, many of which were effectively over by half-time!

As for the Premier League's allegedly crap bottom five (an arbitrary line in the sand but let's examine it in the full glare of examination), 16th placed side Wolverhampton Wanderers finished with 12 wins and 6 draws out of a 38 game season. 17th placed BIG SIX club, Tottenham Hotspur, finished with 11 wins and 5 draws (also won the Europa League, go Ange!). In 18th place and first relegation spot, Leicester City (a Premier League winning club just ten years earlier!) finished with six wins and 7 draws, which, no question, was a poor return BUT they were fighting for their top division lives until it was mathematically impossible to breach the gap to safety.

Just this week, bottom side Southampton, relegated in disgrace with just 2 wins and 6 draws last season, took on Premier League leaders Arsenal in the FA Cup quarter final, ran their **** off and ran out deserved winners 2-1.

I know, I know, comparing oranges and apples here, but my point still stands. Splitting the league into two divisions will result in fewer blowouts as more evenly matched lists play each other, every club (regardless of current league position) has something to play for all the way through the season and (by ditching the draft for an academy system) clubs will rise and fall by the quality of youngsters they're investing training in and the seniors they're trading.

 

[BigVic]

Grand Finals are usually blowouts and this year is too sadly. Geelong, Sydney and Hawthorn has been in most grand finals in the last 21 years and 2026 will be no exception

Carlton and North haven't made a GF this century

 

[Cmarsh]

This is just factually incorrect.

First let's define what consitutes a blowout. I propose two data points for both codes.

Intermediate blowout (soccer - 3 goals, AFL 45 points)
Full blowout (Soccer 4+, AFL 60+ points)

Obviously, these comparisons don't tell the full story, particularly with soccer as the low scoring nature of the game means that a team can overcome a three goal deficit in the space of ten minutes (or less) and draws are a factor, but for this purpose we'll mark those differences as caveats and move on. It should also be noted that more goals are scored in the second half of soccer matches as defenders legs grow tired and fresh legs from subs come into play.

In the Premier League last season, only six Premier League games in the 2025/26 season were won by a margin of four or more goals. This remarkably low figure indicates a highly competitive season, representing one of the lowest frequencies of such high-margin wins in the last 10 years at 1.5%

The number of intermediate blowout games was 77, representing 20.2% of all results. Combined percentage comes to 21.7%

In the AFL, there were 52 full blowouts, representing 24% of all results. Intermediate blowouts totalled 35, representing 16.2% of results. Combined percentage comes to a staggering 40.2% of all games, many of which were effectively over by half-time!

As for the Premier League's allegedly crap bottom five (an arbitrary line in the sand but let's examine it in the full glare of examination), 16th placed side Wolverhampton Wanderers finished with 12 wins and 6 draws out of a 38 game season. 17th placed BIG SIX club, Tottenham Hotspur, finished with 11 wins and 5 draws (also won the Europa League, go Ange!). In 18th place and first relegation spot, Leicester City (a Premier League winning club just ten years earlier!) finished with six wins and 7 draws, which, no question, was a poor return BUT they were fighting for their top division lives until it was mathematically impossible to breach the gap to safety.

Just this week, bottom side Southampton, relegated in disgrace with just 2 wins and 6 draws last season, took on Premier League leaders Arsenal in the FA Cup quarter final, ran their **** off and ran out deserved winners 2-1.

I know, I know, comparing oranges and apples here, but my point still stands. Splitting the league into two divisions will result in fewer blowouts as more evenly matched lists play each other, every club (regardless of current league position) has something to play for all the way through the season and (by ditching the draft for an academy system) clubs will rise and fall by the quality of youngsters they're investing training in and the seniors they're trading.

Not sure how you determined that 60 points (10 goals) in AFL is the equivalent of 4 goals in soccer.

 

[TwoDivisions]

Not sure how you determined that 60 points (10 goals) in AFL is the equivalent of 4 goals in soccer.

Obviously, all definitions have assumptions knitted into them. Ultimately, these are arbitrary lines but a quick rule of thumb might be when the line has been crossed with less than half the game time remaining and the likelihood of overcoming that deficit nears zero...

Fair enough?

 

[Purple Suit]

This is just factually incorrect.

First let's define what consitutes a blowout. I propose two data points for both codes.

Intermediate blowout (soccer - 3 goals, AFL 45 points)
Full blowout (Soccer 4+, AFL 60+ points)

Obviously, these comparisons don't tell the full story, particularly with soccer as the low scoring nature of the game means that a team can overcome a three goal deficit in the space of ten minutes (or less) and draws are a factor, but for this purpose we'll mark those differences as caveats and move on. It should also be noted that more goals are scored in the second half of soccer matches as defenders legs grow tired and fresh legs from subs come into play.

In the Premier League last season, only six Premier League games in the 2025/26 season were won by a margin of four or more goals. This remarkably low figure indicates a highly competitive season, representing one of the lowest frequencies of such high-margin wins in the last 10 years at 1.5%

The number of intermediate blowout games was 77, representing 20.2% of all results. Combined percentage comes to 21.7%

In the AFL, there were 52 full blowouts, representing 24% of all results. Intermediate blowouts totalled 35, representing 16.2% of results. Combined percentage comes to a staggering 40.2% of all games, many of which were effectively over by half-time!

As for the Premier League's allegedly crap bottom five (an arbitrary line in the sand but let's examine it in the full glare of examination), 16th placed side Wolverhampton Wanderers finished with 12 wins and 6 draws out of a 38 game season. 17th placed BIG SIX club, Tottenham Hotspur, finished with 11 wins and 5 draws (also won the Europa League, go Ange!). In 18th place and first relegation spot, Leicester City (a Premier League winning club just ten years earlier!) finished with six wins and 7 draws, which, no question, was a poor return BUT they were fighting for their top division lives until it was mathematically impossible to breach the gap to safety.

Just this week, bottom side Southampton, relegated in disgrace with just 2 wins and 6 draws last season, took on Premier League leaders Arsenal in the FA Cup quarter final, ran their **** off and ran out deserved winners 2-1.

I know, I know, comparing oranges and apples here, but my point still stands. Splitting the league into two divisions will result in fewer blowouts as more evenly matched lists play each other, every club (regardless of current league position) has something to play for all the way through the season and (by ditching the draft for an academy system) clubs will rise and fall by the quality of youngsters they're investing training in and the seniors they're trading.

Have a look at percentages on the premier league table of goals for and against, the bottom teams are getting pumped more than our AFL sides since it’s a 20 team comp. Arsenal have a % of 277 at the top.

 

[TwoDivisions]

Grand Finals are usually blowouts and this year is too sadly. Geelong, Sydney and Hawthorn has been in most grand finals in the last 21 years and 2026 will be no exception

Carlton and North haven't made a GF this century

Sydney get ludicrous advantages in the draft and Hawthorn and Geelong possess heritage and a winning culture. Dropping the draft in favour of an academy system will remove Sydney's unfair advantage and reward clubs with heritage that invest in their juniors and current squads.

A two division system will reduce the incidence of blowouts and give every club something to play for come season's end.

Problem solved, for my next trick...

 

[TwoDivisions]

Have a look at percentages on the premier league table of goals for and against, the bottom teams are getting pumped more than our AFL sides since it’s a 20 team comp. Arsenal have a % of 277 at the top.

Irrelevant. You're cherry picking your datapoints to support your narrative

 

[timokane]

All one sided game thus far for 2026.
Games are boring now.
Apart from hawk and cats rest are a bore.
Hardly ever thrillers.
Lost alot of those close ones.

 

[TwoDivisions]

All one sided game thus far for 2026.
Games are boring now.
Apart from hawk and cats rest are a bore.
Hardly ever thrillers.
Lost alot of those close ones.

Tell that to the 60k West Coast Eagles fans who turn up every fortnight to watch the Beagles get thumped

It doesn't have to be this way. Two Divisions, Academy Youth system, promotion and relegation, every game MATTERS