Dogs Owned By Cats Yet Again - 94-66 Loss

[Shacf501]

I haven’t had a chance to watch the game yet but I read the entire game day thread (LOL) and the post mortems as well as one or two media reports on the match. So I’m now a subject matter expert.

I don’t rate us much of a flag chance but still reckon we could win three straight from here and fall over the line for a finals berth. Here’s some of my reasoning:

• Yesterday we lost by 28 points.
• Oliver G’s (greatly appreciated) stats tell us that the expected margin was only 20 points.
• We won two of the four quarters. In fact we won three of the quarters by a net margin of 19 points. It was just one horrendous team-fade of a third quarter that lost us the match.
• We were playing at Kardinia Park where the Cats rarely lose. Most of the comments I read here suggest they are about 3 goals worse at the MCG and at least that much at Marvel.
• So on expected score, if you take out the home ground advantage we pretty much squared it with the flag favourites. Not a bad level to be at and surely no cause for wrist-slitting gloom.
• And that’s before we consider the possibility - however remote and wistful - that we might actually find a way to stop these demonstrably catastrophic run-ons that opposition sides have been getting against us.
• All this was coming off a magnificent effort the previous week to knock of our recent nemesis the Demons. A slight let down was almost inevitable.
• We held two of the league’s power forwards to a total of 4 goals. That’s below their season average and any of us would have taken that if offered it before the first bounce.
• Daniel was clearly rusty and played a poor game.
• Bruce can only improve.
• Naughton had a rare goalless game (only his second for the season).
• Treloar was out but should be back by Rd 22 if not this week.
• Geelong’s run-on coincided with an injury to a dominant Bont - it quelled his influence and his ability to arrest their surge.
• Nobody else except maybe Richards played above their normal level.

Look I know all that may be seen as hopelessly optimistic but you have to admit there is some logic to it.

We are always so fickle as a bunch of supporters. We go from thinking we are world beaters one week to thinking we are total pretenders the next. In reality most of us had written off this game anyway (no matter who we officially tipped) and a 20 point losing margin would have been about right (I tipped -23).

We will go into the next three games as favourites. There’s a reasonable chance we will end up dropping one … but win all 3 and we are playing finals.

Go Dogs!

Agree, but these full quarter fadeouts are consistent and just don't magically fix themselves. I think most people are frustrated because it happened to us in the biggest game of the year last year and has consistently cost us games this year. It's not like a 2 goal or 3 goal turn around its going from competitive to pathetic and disinterested in the space of a half time break. Our leaders and midfield engine consistently show a lack of energy and desire when this is happening and to me that's what is concerning. They obviously feel no pressure on their spots as it is happening time and time again and they continually get a game the following week.

 

[BEaston]

Naughton and Jamarra's forward craft is night and day. I've said it repeatedly, but Naughton lives off his athleticism as a forward. Once that's taken away he doesn't really have any options to impact the game.

After wanting him dropped this week, I thought Williams' game was pretty good. Well done to him.

 

[goodcop badcop]

I think the concussion issues English deals with are underestimated in here. It took him ages to find his form again last time this happened and whether it’s confidence or residual impact there is no way we have the same ruckman we did before his head issues. Hopefully he continues to get back to his best.

Our midfield is basically formed of mid-attack players and we don’t seem to have any mid-defenders. Sam Mitchell gave a fabulous interview on the weekend talking about team balance and he was saying the attacking mids are great but you have to balance the centre with genuine defensive mids (which he classed himself as in his playing career). We are also a bull short - Libba is great but Smith, Bont, Treloar and Macrae are all accumulators or classy finishes and we either don’t use Dunks enough or he is overrated as an extractor. I’d be prioritising a bull mid as an early draft pick in the coming years. If we could get Logue for our first rounder and Liam Jones I’d definately look for a midfield bull for the 2023 draft.

We have West as a bull mid, we just choose not to play him in the midfield. I think that has to change as we need some more physical types running through there.

Bont is very underrated defensively. His pressure acts are good and he's currently top 20 in the AFL for tackles per game.

 

[Libbaaaa]

Is it just me or does big Tim never rest forward anymore? I understand he needs to come off and can't play 100% gametime but it feels like whenever Bruce went in the middle he was always off as opposed to just plunking himself in the goalsquare. I know he has demanded to be the #1 ruck but it is just a killer to them structure.

 

[BulldogMuscle]

I just got back into reception range after not having it since Saturday...

Yikes, not even worth going back to watch this one hey lads? That bad?

 

[Shacf501]

We have West as a bull mid, we just choose not to play him in the midfield. I think that has to change as we need some more physical types running through there.

Bont is very underrated defensively. His pressure acts are good and he's currently top 20 in the AFL for tackles per game.

Exactly, I think he could turn into a jack viney type if given the opportunity. However, I think he has better foot skills and game awareness than viney

 

[TiAn_]

Well, he's been stopped a fair few times this year.
He was stopped by Steven May on one leg in last year's Grand Final.

Personally, I'd rather have consistency as a defender than hot/cold performances as a forward.
Believe it or not, defenders can have the description of "unstoppable" too, just ask Alex Rance, or Jeremy McGovern at his peak.

If your own coach thought this way Noah Balta wouldn’t sniff the forward line.

 

[TiAn_]

Naughton and Jamarra's forward craft is night and day. I've said it repeatedly, but Naughton lives off his athleticism as a forward. Once that's taken away he doesn't really have any options to impact the game.

After wanting him dropped this week, I thought Williams' game was pretty good. Well done to him.

I think part of it is role for Naughton. I don’t have the numbers, but I feel like he took a lot more marks on the lead inside 50 last year. Without peak Bruce defences have closed in on him and he’s getting the best tall defender all game every week, along with other defenders peeling off in front of him. He’s still making a pretty good fist of it as just a 22 year old being the focal point of an attack.

 

[BEaston]

If it was just a case of moving chess pieces around I’d consider the idea of moving Naughton back. But it’s not.

After playing his junior years as a defender and playing a season in that role at the WB, Bevo tapped him on the shoulder and told him he’s a forward. A shock to him at first but a challenge he has taken on and he has learned his new role.

What message are we sending if we say the last four years of development have mostly been wasted … looks like you’re a defender after all?

Unless it comes from Naughton it’s a move that might see him looking for a new home.

Besides I’m yet to be convinced that taking a 50 goal+ forward out of the forward line is going to be a net gain, even if he’s pretty good as a defender.

But his role is replaced by someone else, who we'd assume also kicks goals so it's not exactly losing 50 goals.

Just say we get Lobb in, then he provides his 35 goals. Naughton then replaces one of Cordy/Gardner/Buku/Keath (take your pick) and instead of them costing us 10 goals over the course of a season, Naughton actually saves 10 goals that's means we're a net +5 goals better off. I don't think that is an unrealistic scenario at all.

The last 4 years are not a waste at all, he provided his role forward for the past 4 years as it gave the team the best chance to win. If it's now determined that him playing back gives us the best chance to win then that's the move to make.

Not necessarily advocating for it, but the logic is there IMO. I personally think one of Darcy or Naughton will have to play back next season.

 

[footscray1973]

Is it just me or does big Tim never rest forward anymore? I understand he needs to come off and can't play 100% gametime but it feels like whenever Bruce went in the middle he was always off as opposed to just plunking himself in the goalsquare. I know he has demanded to be the #1 ruck but it is just a killer to them structure.

He did rest forward (even if briefly) v Melbourne. Or at least appeared to, as I noticed at one stage English was between the 50m arc and the goal square while Bruce was on the wing rucking, but that may have been merely English pushing forward to run off Gawn, while Bruce had moved outside 50 to get involved. I'm sure when I picked that up, only one of Naughton or JUH were also on the ground, can't remember which one though.

 

[Norm De Guerre]

I don't think the idea of Naughton back can or should be discounted for the rest of this year. I'm not talking about next year when, who knows, we may have traded for or secured a decent KPF through some means or another, and in all likelihood he's a full time forward again.

But, in the present, whether it's back for some, most or all of the game is up for discussion because, as was clear to all of us ... again ... on Saturday night, we are particularly vulnerable to long runs against us out of the centre square from CBs. Naughton, IMO, represents some chance of getting to and contesting a kick inside our defensive 50 out of one of those CB capitulations. A better chance than both Cordy and Keath under any circumstances I would suggest. Perhaps even our best chance or only chance.

We all hope that those runs don't eventuate, but if they do and the ruck/midfield combo is unable to stop it or pressure a kick I50 enough at source, our next best chance of defending it is Naughton back IMO. I don't think we should deny ourselves the best opportunity (which may only be a 5 to 10% better chance) of defending those runs in the back 6 with the best talent available in order to save or redeem the present opportunity of playing in finals and maybe even winning one or more.

As someone else mentioned, 2 of those CB capitulations in a row should trigger a change up/response to stem the bleeding and this would be mine if all else is failing.

Naughts is not the only part of a possible solution. A physically combative ruckman would help as would a harder and tougher for longer mindset from the majority of midfielders and on-ballers who allow these runs to happen. But we all know that.

Ive got no issue with Naughton going back and playing the firemans role for portions of games. Nor do I have one if he is switched back next year if we can readily fill the giant void that he'd leave in the forward half. Something given his rare skillset will not be easy, hence the probable recruitment of Liam Jones.

The problem as I see it, is that the season cannot be seen in isolation nor can the knock on effects of us playing him in defence all year as the op opined be ignored.

As for the Geelong game. I really doubt swinging him back when the game was quickly spinning out of control in the 3rd would've made one iota of difference. We weren't getting slaughtered by long high balls coming in, but by the rapidity of Geelong attacks and the atrocious fumbling and foot skills of our small defenders and their inability to clear the ball, lay an effective tackle or guard an opponent. Something that contributed greatly to the rapidity of said entries. Then there is the issue of how high our defenders are placed on the field and how that leaves them exposed to the ball going over the back to an unguarded opponent when their skills go awry and they turn the ball over. But thats a discussion for another day...

 

[_Mike_]

I'm supportive of being more open to swing him back if need be during games though. I think its a option that should be utilised a little more to stem the tide (thats if our mids can't do the job)

That's the position of my argument, Ive stated a number of times that I think he'd be a good option to float between CHB and CHF while they're working on a long term solution, not as a permanent fixture on the backline. Im not sold on Jones solving all the problems and if it comes to fruition great, if not we've got another utility tall to to fit in across positions. Square peg round holes.

 

[footscray1973]

As for the Geelong game. I really doubt swinging him back when the game was quickly spinning out of control in the 3rd would've made one iota of difference. We weren't getting slaughtered by long high balls coming in, but by the rapidity of Geelong attacks and the atrocious fumbling and foot skills of our small defenders and their inability to clear the ball, lay an effective tackle or guard an opponent. Something that contributed greatly to the rapidity of said entries. Then there is the issue of how high our defenders are placed on the field and how that leaves them exposed to the ball going over the back to an unguarded opponent when their skills go awry and they turn the ball over. But thats a discussion for another day...

Good point, the critical issue was not Gardner and Cordy, who actually (possibly surprisingly!) largely held Hawkins and Cameron to a combined 4 goals, and not sure Naughton would have improved that situation substantially. It was Daniel, Hannan and their ilk doing their best to put the entire defensive unit under even more pressure by some almost comical skill execution and decision making. And the midfield's inability to prevent their Cats opposites to stroll out of centre clearances.

That's the position of my argument, Ive stated a number of times that I think he'd be a good option to float between CHB and CHF while they're working on a long term solution, not as a permanent fixture on the backline. Im not sold on Jones solving all the problems and if it comes to fruition great, if not we've got another utility tall to to fit in across positions. Square peg round holes.

Don't disagree, assume you mean in place of a KPD, not float back as an extra? But per my point above agreeing with NdG - not sure Naughton taking Hawkins or Cameron on Sat night substantially alters the 3rd quarter debacle.

 

[House_of_Dahl]

I just got back into reception range after not having it since Saturday...

Yikes, not even worth going back to watch this one hey lads? That bad?

Watch the first quarter then turn it off

 

[_Mike_]

Don't disagree, assume you mean in place of a KPD, not float back as an extra? But per my point above agreeing with NdG - not sure Naughton taking Hawkins or Cameron on Sat night substantially alters the 3rd quarter debacle.

That wouldnt have made any difference when the midfield was smashed after 1/2 time

 

[Foxman98]

Well, he's been stopped a fair few times this year.
He was stopped by Steven May on one leg in last year's Grand Final.

Personally, I'd rather have consistency as a defender than hot/cold performances as a forward.
Believe it or not, defenders can have the description of "unstoppable" too, just ask Alex Rance, or Jeremy McGovern at his peak.

Hot and cold forward he's averaging 2.5 goals a game you nuffie

 

[footscray1973]

Hot and cold forward he's averaging 2.5 goals a game you nuffie

2022 stats would indicate more hot than cold , but what would oppo posters know anyway?!

(frees for/against surprised me though, given I agree with many on here he gets hard done by when defenders infringe but there is no free paid)

 

[yebiga]

We have West as a bull mid, we just choose not to play him in the midfield. I think that has to change as we need some more physical types running through there.

Bont is very underrated defensively. His pressure acts are good and he's currently top 20 in the AFL for tackles per game.

CENTRE SQUARE WEAKNESS
B.Smith must not be in the centre bounces - until he learns to apply defensive pressure
2 occasions in the third he let danger and selwood go passed him, when all he had to do was body line the ball
Liber, Bont, Dunkley are fine. Macrae often gets pushed off the ball. Treloar is poor but Smith is the worst.

We can toughen up in this area by using West and McClean in the rotations and keep Smith and Treloar out.
and if we are after a bigger body, I would sooner try Bailey William than either of Smith or Treloar who's strengths are on the outside not in the meat grinder.

 

[Mr. Walker]

After wanting him dropped this week, I thought Williams' game was pretty good. Well done to him.

I sort of agree. I do think his last three games have been better and “pretty good” compared to his earlier performances this year but I think he is well down on last years ( GF excepted) output from him. Not sure if it is confidence or an injury (?) but I hope his trajectory continues.

 

[True Dog]

******* this. I’m bloody sick of seeing him waltz forward for a handball receive. It’s bullshit, yeah it’s cool to see your ruckman streaming towards goal out of the middle every once in a while but * me you’re a ruckman. That’s not your job. Put your bloody body on the line & help out your midfielders defensively. That is your job once the ball hits the deck you’re not a *ing midfielder.

There’s a reason our midfield plays better to a genuine ruckman who brings a defensive influence and allows them the luxury to focus on their own games.

I will *ing die on this hill

This is the one part of Tims game that I worry he'll never overcome. His work around the ground is second to none, his trap work is improving all the time but his ability to throw his weight around and be a physical road block in the middle of the ground just isn't there. I thought Tim and Baz were really poor in that 3rd quarter both defensively and physically.... Lets hope they both turn it around this week

 

[VogonProsthetnic]

This is the one part of Tims game that I worry he'll never overcome. His work around the ground is second to none, his trap work is improving all the time but his ability to throw his weight around and be a physical road block in the middle of the ground just isn't there. I thought Tim and Baz were really poor in that 3rd quarter both defensively and physically.... Lets hope they both turn it around this week

Agree. Play Jordon Sweet ffs. Was so good in the Collingwood and Hawthorn games watching him throw his weight around in the middle.

 

[ossie_21]

This is the one part of Tims game that I worry he'll never overcome. His work around the ground is second to none, his trap work is improving all the time but his ability to throw his weight around and be a physical road block in the middle of the ground just isn't there. I thought Tim and Baz were really poor in that 3rd quarter both defensively and physically.... Lets hope they both turn it around this week

It’s one part of his game I ******* hate. When there is a throw up or boundary throw in, he is too often looking at where the other ruck is and what they are doing. Half the time this means he misses where the ball is anyway, which makes his job obsolete at that point in time.

Agree. Play Jordon Sweet ffs. Was so good in the Collingwood and Hawthorn games watching him throw his weight around in the middle.

Shh, the one ruck cucks will point out he doesn’t do enough else around the ground… I dare anyone to look me in the eye and tell me we are/were better off with McComb in the team instead of Sweet.

 

[VogonProsthetnic]

It’s one part of his game I ******* hate. When there is a throw up or boundary throw in, he is too often looking at where the other ruck is and what they are doing. Half the time this means he misses where the ball is anyway, which makes his job obsolete at that point in time.



Shh, the one ruck cucks will point out he doesn’t do enough else around the ground… I dare anyone to look me in the eye and tell me we are/were better off with McComb in the team instead of Sweet.

Like Will Minson and Jackson Trengove- he doesn’t kick goals from 50 on the run, so no need to pick.

The fact that he is 205cm win taps and beats up on the opposition is beside the point According to Bevo.

 

[doggies ftw]

Like Will Minson and Jackson Trengove- he doesn’t kick goals from 50 on the run, so no need to pick.

The fact that he is 205cm win taps and beats up on the opposition is beside the point According to Bevo.

We’d arguably be better in the midfield and better forward by just playing Sweet first ruck and Timmy forward/ruck, than we would bringing in Lobb.

Plus saves us 500k & a good draft pick, focus all our attention on fixing the back half.

So simple, yet come round 10 next year I can guarantee Lobb will be in the 2s, Naughty will be partnered by Jones up forward, English will be one out in the ruck and Gardner & Buku will be holding down our defence

 

[VogonProsthetnic]

We’d arguably be better in the midfield and better forward by just playing Sweet first ruck and Timmy forward/ruck, than we would bringing in Lobb.

Plus saves us 500k & a good draft pick, focus all our attention on fixing the back half.

So simple, yet come round 10 next year I can guarantee Lobb will be in the 2s, Naughty will be partnered by Jones up forward, English will be one out in the ruck and Gardner & Buku will be holding down our defence

The media salivate over young rucks like Draper, Reeves and De Koning.

Yet Jordon Sweet who is a similar age and seems to perform equally as capable looks like being cut when Lobb comes over.

I’m tipping WCE, Port and the Giants will be asking him the question.