Mega Thread Elimination final opponent discussion

[Footy_Fan2007]

Just thinking about which teams we would want to play in the first week. I'd be stoked playing freo in Melbourne. Prolly uncomfortable playing anyone else. Looking at the fixture, we actually may have to play West Coast in Perth. If North win their last 2 (which they will) and west coast drop 1 game and win 2, and we win our last 2, we may finish 7th and Eagles 6th with North at 5th. All comes Down to %. just interested to get everyone's thoughts?

 

[Senatorguesty]

I'm not so confident that we will finish 5th or 6th now due to the upsets, regardless for us to be able to do ANYTHING in this years finals we need to reduce the amount of travelling we do so I would say I would prefer to play a Melbourne team if we finish 7/8.
Hard to say and with the upsets it really throws up alot of variables, I dare say it will all come down to the last round (we MUST beat Sydney, problem we will be faced with is they MUST win for a top 2 I'm betting).

 

[DanA]

There is nothing we can do to catch Westocast percentage and with the draw ahead it's Geelong and Westcoast that will finish 6th and 7th. We are equal on points

Westcoast play Collingwood & Hawthorn.
Geelong play Bulldogs & Sydney.
North play Freo & GWS

I'm leaning towards:
5th North
6th Geelong
7th Westcoast
8th Carlton

That'd be a good outcome for us with a home final and the only chance of interstate games being Sydney (Not at the SCG) and Adelaide. Neither are too daunting at task if we can produce our best football.

 

[Senatorguesty]

Well I just did the predictor and had us finished 5th (provided be beat the Swans and smash the dogs by 10+ goals) over North with West Coast losing their last 2 games to finish 7th.
Gives me first week of:
Swans v Hawks
Crows v Pies
Cats v Blues
North v Eagles

% will play a huge part and its something thats difficult to do with the predictor.

 

[donbooger]

In order from best case to worst.

Essendon
Freo in VIC
WC in VIC
North
Freo in WA
Carlton
WC in WA

I think Carlton are the other best team outside the four and the only game I would be nervous about. Having to win four finals and starting it with a trip to WA then likely trips to SA or NSW would be the death of us.

 

[you pick one]

Well I just did the predictor and had us finished 5th (provided be beat the Swans and smash the dogs by 10+ goals) over North with West Coast losing their last 2 games to finish 7th.
Gives me first week of:
Swans v Hawks
Crows v Pies
Cats v Blues
North v Eagles

% will play a huge part and its something thats difficult to do with the predictor.

I had a crack at the predictor last week it didn't take % to blow me out of the water this week, only two weeks to go after today to shape the 8 and maybe some surprises still to come.

 

[Isaac Norm Smith]

There is nothing we can do to catch Westocast percentage and with the draw ahead it's Geelong and Westcoast that will finish 6th and 7th. We are equal on points

Westcoast play Collingwood & Hawthorn.
Geelong play Bulldogs & Sydney.
North play Freo & GWS

I'm leaning towards:
5th North
6th Geelong
7th Westcoast
8th Carlton

That'd be a good outcome for us with a home final and the only chance of interstate games being Sydney (Not at the SCG) and Adelaide. Neither are too daunting at task if we can produce our best football.

We won't be equal on points after West Coast beat Port today. We have to rely on Collingwood and Hawks to beat WC the last 2 rounds and we have to win both. It turns out that 5 point loss to West Coast last week could potentially cost us a home final. Not confident the Pies can beat them over there.

 

[Selective Retention]

Pies travel well, Swan will be back, and the big ground will give space for their mids to go forward and kick their goals instead of needing Cloke and Dawes to hit the scoreboard.

 

[MC Extra Dollop]

There is nothing we can do to catch Westocast percentage and with the draw ahead it's Geelong and Westcoast that will finish 6th and 7th. We are equal on points

Westcoast play Collingwood & Hawthorn.
Geelong play Bulldogs & Sydney.
North play Freo & GWS

I'm leaning towards:
5th North
6th Geelong
7th Westcoast
8th Carlton

That'd be a good outcome for us with a home final and the only chance of interstate games being Sydney (Not at the SCG) and Adelaide. Neither are too daunting at task if we can produce our best football.

This is where those games against GWS, Gold Coast, Port Adelaide etc. are costing us. It's unlikely that we'll catch the Eagles on percentage (if they only win two of their last three), but certainly not impossible. We need Port Adelaide to hang around against them and not get absolutely smashed, a narrow victory against Collingwood/Hawthorn and a pretty hefty loss to the other. And we need to belt the Bulldogs (somewhere in the region of three figures).

Say West Coast wins today, 120-85; beats Collingwood, 100-99; and loses to Hawthorn 80-120. That would leave their percentage at 117.348. Then, if we beat the Bulldogs, 160-70 (which we should, let's face it); and Sydney, 120-95. That would leave it as:

Geelong 15-7 119.473%
WCE 15-7 118.92%

North Melbourne is a more difficult proposition. They're about 5-7 goals ahead of us now (depending on aggregates, but a reasonable ballpark) and probably have what would be considered an easier run than us from here. Basically, we have to beat the Bulldogs by more than North beat GWS and beat Sydney by more than they beat Fremantle. The other tough thing about it is they have their 'easy' game after we do, so they're unlikely to ease up against GWS, since we'll probably go ahead of them on percentage next week.

 

[Footy_Fan2007]

This is where those games against GWS, Gold Coast, Port Adelaide etc. are costing us. It's unlikely that we'll catch the Eagles on percentage (if they only win two of their last three), but certainly not impossible. We need Port Adelaide to hang around against them and not get absolutely smashed, a narrow victory against Collingwood/Hawthorn and a pretty hefty loss to the other. And we need to belt the Bulldogs (somewhere in the region of three figures).

Say West Coast wins today, 120-85; beats Collingwood, 100-99; and loses to Hawthorn 80-120. That would leave their percentage at 117.348. Then, if we beat the Bulldogs, 160-70 (which we should, let's face it); and Sydney, 120-95. That would leave it as:

Geelong 15-7 119.473%
WCE 15-7 118.92%

North Melbourne is a more difficult proposition. They're about 5-7 goals ahead of us now (depending on aggregates, but a reasonable ballpark) and probably have what would be considered an easier run than us from here. Basically, we have to beat the Bulldogs by more than North beat GWS and beat Sydney by more than they beat Fremantle. The other tough thing about it is they have their 'easy' game after we do, so they're unlikely to ease up against GWS, since we'll probably go ahead of them on percentage next week.

I'm not sure we will belt the dogs by 100, we havent beaten anyone by over 70 all year. What we need is for the Eagles to drop the Magpies and Hawks games. If they don't, then we are on the way to Perth in week 1 which gives up all hope of back to back.....

 

[Turbocat]

My 8 atm
Syd
Crows
Pies
Hawks
WC
North
Cats
Blues
So with that 8 it seems to change weekly but with this config it falls our way a bit -

Week 1 I have us playing North the first week , probably at the G

Week 2 I have us playing the Pies @ the G

Prelim Week 3 , I have us playing the Hawks at the G

GF , Week 4 , I have us playing the Swans at the G

This is close to the best chance of a team winning from bottom 4 , all the games in Vic. But to win even the 1st week atm would be no gimme , North are playing well , Pies and Hawks are seasoned and by the time we got to a GF , we we would be very bruised but to play Swans at the G , it may just be possible.

But it would take little for it to change. If in w1 , Swans defeat Hawks & Pies defeat Crows then -
then its sets us up to play Crows w2 and Swans w3 , all interstate. Just about cooked then Id say.

 

[Isaac Norm Smith]

I'm not sure we will belt the dogs by 100, we havent beaten anyone by over 70 all year. What we need is for the Eagles to drop the Magpies and Hawks games. If they don't, then we are on the way to Perth in week 1 which gives up all hope of back to back.....

Exactly. Confident the Hawks will beat them in Melb, just need the Pies to roll them next week and we should avoid a WA final. Can't believe we will be madly barracking for the Pies next week. Damn!

 

[MC Extra Dollop]

I'm not sure we will belt the dogs by 100, we havent beaten anyone by over 70 all year. What we need is for the Eagles to drop the Magpies and Hawks games. If they don't, then we are on the way to Perth in week 1 which gives up all hope of back to back.....

As I said, it's unlikely. But with the end of the season in sight and the obvious importance of us winning our remaining games by as much as possible, combined with the Bulldogs having nothing to play for and coming off two days' less break (along with their general shitness anyway), it's not incoceivable. Obviously, the easiest path is if West Coast drops their last two games. But all is not lost for a home final, if they win two of their last three, as long as the margins favour us.

Apart from West Coast (which was a weird game for a multitude of reasons), we've been absolutely belting every other opponent we've had since Essendon, at one stage of proceedings or another. Essendon by 67, Adelaide by 5+ goals at halftime, Hawthorn by 50+ in the second quarter and really St Kilda for the entire game, besides the third quarter, on Friday. Each of those teams has been a finals team, or at least a finals contender, when we've taken the field against them. Something the Bulldogs are nowhere near.

The problem for us has been stringing four quarters together. Now, if we can set ourselves a simple goal of winning every quarter against the Bulldogs (easily our worst opposition since we've started to hit our straps), the chances are we'll be ahead by a significant margin when the final siren sounds. Which is exactly what we need.

But first thing's first...we should be really barracking for Port to try to keep the margin under 45 today, which keeps us right in the mix to overtake the Eagles (unless they beat both Hawthorn and Collingwood).

 

[pinion]

i think whoever finished 8th will be the clearly weak link in the finals. Be it Fremantle, Carlton, Essendon or St Kilda.

 

[Senatorguesty]

Problem we have is its unlikely we will finished 5th unless we can build some % AND win both our last 2 games AND rely on the Eagles to lose to both the pies and hawks. Then we have to worry about north who werent meant to win against the pies.
Its going to be tough.

 

[MC Extra Dollop]

As for the original question, in order of preference I'd say:

• Freo/West Coast in Melbourne
• Melbourne team in Melbourne
• West Coast in Perth

 

[Footy_Fan2007]

But first thing's first...we should be really barracking for Port to try to keep the margin under 45 today, which keeps us right in the mix to overtake the Eagles (unless they beat both Hawthorn and Collingwood).

I really really hope Port actually roll them.

 

[MC Extra Dollop]

I really really hope Port actually roll them.

Of course. But I'd be calling anything under 45 points as a win, pretty much. Unless it's a low-scoring game, 45 points keeps their current percentage roughly the same as what they are on now. And considering their last two opponents, their percentage will drop from there by the end of the season, whether they lose both of the games or not.

 

[muttweed]

I'm not sure we will belt the dogs by 100, we havent beaten anyone by over 70 all year. What we need is for the Eagles to drop the Magpies and Hawks games. If they don't, then we are on the way to Perth in week 1 which gives up all hope of back to back.....

How is all hope lost?

I know finals is a different ball game, but we came within 5 pts (and led most of the game) without half of our midfield!

If any team can stand up for finals it is us. I will never put it past us to win the flag unless we get eliminated.

 

[supahoops]

Sydney.

 

[vinum coupe]

I honestly don't care.
Week 1 will be the easiest week no matter who we play.
Week 2 and 3 on the other hand .............

 

[Vdubs]

My 8 atm
Syd
Crows
Pies
Hawks
WC
North
Cats
Blues
So with that 8 it seems to change weekly but with this config it falls our way a bit -

Week 1 I have us playing North the first week , probably at the G

Week 2 I have us playing the Pies @ the G

Prelim Week 3 , I have us playing the Hawks at the G

GF , Week 4 , I have us playing the Swans at the G

This is close to the best chance of a team winning from bottom 4 , all the games in Vic. But to win even the 1st week atm would be no gimme , North are playing well , Pies and Hawks are seasoned and by the time we got to a GF , we we would be very bruised but to play Swans at the G , it may just be possible.

But it would take little for it to change. If in w1 , Swans defeat Hawks & Pies defeat Crows then -
then its sets us up to play Crows w2 and Swans w3 , all interstate. Just about cooked then Id say.

Hold on.
If we play NM week 1, could be at their home Etihad, and we could easily be caught out. We are good there, they are the best there.

 

[Goggin Our Best]

I honestly don't care.
Week 1 will be the easiest week no matter who we play.
Week 2 and 3 on the other hand .............

I dIsagree totally with that view -i think the 1st week i will be the most nervous

Back in 1995 i had tickets to all the MCG finals that year -take a line through Carlton -they demolished North Melbourne in the PF -annihilated us in the GF -but in their 1st final they played the lowly Brisbane Bears who had won 10 less games -with 6 minutes to go big Merrett got his one and only kick for the game and put the Bears in front -Carlton were nervous as hell-because they were expected to win easily

I think if we win our 1st final -Geelong will have a free run at it -and look out the other teams

 

[Vdubs]

I'll be happy if we finish 6 or 7, meaning we don't have to play Carlton. If we lost to NM , I could live with that. If we won, bonus. If we had to go to Perth, with a fit Hawkins, and all our players back, we should beat WCE. Imagine finishing 5th, and losing to a rampaging Carlton. Repulsive. They are the sort of team that could easily do damage now that Waite, Judd, Casboult, Murphy, Carazzo, Kreuzer are back in form.
Of course, it would be awesome to beat Carlton, but they'd be my least favoured team to play first week, other than the team we don't get to play week 1 = Hawks.
On the other hand, if we were 5th and got to play Freo here, that would be desirable, although I'd be still very worried about 211. If he is fit and dominant, we will be beaten by their mids getting the armchair ride.

 

[SleazySimon]

I must be the most optimistic supporter there is. People are scared of norf, wet coke, and Carltank? Don't know where the lack of confidence in our boys comes from after the success we had. Why can't we all be over confident, cocky flogs like pies and hawks fans are? Surly we've earnt it by now havnt we? At our best we can beat any side any where. Last game in Perth we had half our midfield plus tomahawk missing and got within 5 points. If no one here can draw confidence from then some fans will always be pessamistic.