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Sydney Swans vs Adelaide Crows
Sydney Cricket Ground, 7:10pm AEST, Saturday 26th July
The Story So Far
The Crows started the season with a narrow loss to the second best team in the comp. Thereafter they made their way to an 8-3 record at the mid point of the season. Only a couple of speed humps there, the most notable of which was our traditional demolition at the hands of West Coast.
Since that time though, it's been a very different story. The Crows lost in a thriller to the high flying Hawks, before progressively disintegrating against Brisbane, Geelong and Collingwood.
To this point we could at least argue that we'd only lost to teams in the top 8 (and our nemesis in West Coast). Things hit a new low in R16 when the Crows fell victim to a Port Adelaide team playing their "Grand Final in July". This loss was to a team who hadn't won in well over a month and who were not even close to making the finals.
Sydney also started the season with a loss, but returned to form with a run of 3 straight wins. They hit a couple of speed bumps in Geelong, North Melbourne & Footscray in consecutive weeks. Since then they've only lost twice, to well credentialed Hawthorn and Collingwood.
Like Adelaide, Sydney have struggled to beat the top teams. Unlike Adelaide, they haven't slipped up against Brisbane or any of the bottom 8 sides.
The History
The Crows have had the wood over the Swans for years. Put simply, they've become our bunnies. Adelaide have won 8 of the last 9 encounters between these two sides, with 4 of those wins coming at the SCG.
Adelaide's only loss in that streak was in Neil Craig's 2nd ever game as coach (while he was still technically in caretaker mode). Even in that game, Adelaide won 3 of 4 quarters - though Sydney put enough hurt on the board in the quarter they won to ensure the result went their way.
However, it's not been a good year for the Crows and their bunnies. Going into the year we had minor bunny holdings on Brisbane & Collingwood, with North & Port dressing up in rabbit suits every time they faced us. Of these, only North's bunny status remains intact. If ever Sydney were to overcome their mental block and defeat us, this would be the time.
The Game Plans
Adelaide & Sydney both have two gameplans - one dour, boring and defensive, the other attractive, high scoring and offensive.
In the past, Sydney have generally reserved their attacking option for two situations - against weaker sides for whom they have little respect and for better sides, in the final term when the dour & boring plan has failed dismally and they found themselves on the scoreboard. Their dour & boring gameplan has generally been used to combat the better sides, in an attempt to shutdown their opponent's ability to score. It's rarely been successful, but that's never stopped them from using it. On the other hand, with the firepower they've had at their disposal, their attractive attacking gameplan is frequently devastatingly effective.
Adelaide started the year using their attacking gameplan, playing on through the corridor and moving the ball quickly into attack. It worked like a dream early in the season, with 100+ point scores kicked in 5 of the first 9 games. Since then they've only managed it once - against Richmond.
Somewhere, somehow, Adelaide lost their way and reverted to the old chip-chip possession game which made them one of the least attractive teams to watch during the injury plagued 2007. Having had relatively few injuries this year, the backsliding can only be put down to a lack of confidence and a lack of decent forwards. The latter problem was compounded when they lost Burton & Porplyzia in the R14 game against Collingwood, thus depriving the Crows of their only two forwards with any X-factor.
On the whole, Sydney have been far more attacking than the Crows this year, scoring 66 more points than the Crows. Underscoring Adelaide's midfield weaknesses, the Crows defence have conceded 158 more points than the Swans this year.
Adelaide's Team
B: Graham Johncock, Ben Rutten, Nathan Bassett
HB: Kris Massie, Nathan Bock, Michael Doughty
C: Brad Symes, Simon Goodwin, Andrew McLeod
HF: Chris Knights, Nick Gill, Nathan van Berlo
F: Tyson Edwards, Kurt Tippett, Bernie Vince
R: Ivan Maric, Scott Thompson, Robert Shirley
Int: Brad Moran, Richard Douglas, Scott Stevens, Bryce Campbell
The only change I see happening is Luke Jericho being omitted after another soft as butter performance in the Showdown. He will be replaced by Nick Gill, who kicked 7 goals in an unusually accurate display of goalkicking prowess for North Adelaide.
Crows fans will be hoping to see Taylor Walker's name appear on the team list, but they are unlikely to receive any joy. Apparently he's not the solution to our forward line woes - which begs two questions: What IS the solution? And do we even know what the question is?
Sydney's Changes
Michael O'Loughlin looks like being a big omission for the Swans, missing with an ankle injury. He's kicked 36 goals this year and leads their goalscoring list by 15. In Hall's absence he's been an ever reliable avenue to goal.
Barry Hall appears set to make his return, having previously been dumped from the team after his second attempt to remove an opponent's head from his shoulders. Big Bad Bustling Barry might have spent most of the year on the sidelines, but he's been a potent force when he has taken to the field - with 17 goals from 7 games, including two bags of 5.
Leo Barry also appears likely to miss out, courtesy of a hamstring complaint. Given the weakness of Adelaide's forward line, I doubt he will even be missed.
Ryan O'Keefe is carrying a knee injury, which required injections last week in order for him to see out the game. Must have been something good in the syringe though, because he picked up a game-high 29 disposals last week.
Adam Goodes also played out the game last week with a groin injury, but it almost certainly won't be enough to make him miss this week. They have some seriously good medicos in the Harbour Town.
The Match Ups
Barry Hall's inclusion is ironically a bonus for Adelaide. Ben Rutten has an outstanding record against him and will once again be tasked with handling one of the game's few remaining gorilla type forwards. Rutten seems to struggle when opposed by a more nimble smaller forward, so the return of Hall will give him someone he is naturally equipped to combat.
In the absence of Mickey O, Ryan O'Keefe is probably their next most dangerous forward. Doughty will probably get the job here, having the engine to go with him as he ventures into the middle of the ground (O'Keefe is also Sydney's 2nd highest possession winner).
Jarrad McVeigh is Sydney's second highest goal scorer, with 21 goals to his name. Massie, Bassett or Johncock will be given this assignment (Massie being my first preference).
Nathan Bock will probably get to run with Henry Playfair. All due respect to Playfair, but this should be a big win to the Crows.
Adam Goodes will face a new opponent. Adelaide used to have Mattner run with him, but now Mattner's on their side. Shirley's our primary stopper, but I'm not sure he'll be able to go with Goodes. Maybe we'll just opt to go head-to-head with him and hope to come out even - this could easily backfire as Goodes can seriously hurt you if allowed to roam free.
Kurt Tippett is Adelaide's only forward of any note, unless Nick Gill makes his return. Tippett would probably be held by Lewis Roberts-Thompson.
Not sure who Nick Gill would attract, in the absence of Leo Barry. Might even be former Crow Martin Mattner.
The Result
The Crows are down on confidence, with a forward line that hasn't kicked more than 11 goals in a game since R11.
Sydney are coming off a hard fought win over Carlton, with 3 wins from their last 5 games. The Swans should be far more confident than the Crows, particularly on their own home ground.
Adelaide's only chance is to turn this game into a low scoring slugfest. If they can do that, then they just might be successful.
On the other hand, there is no reason I can think of why Sydney should dignify the Crows with their dour, boring gameplan. If they have any sense at all, they will attack from beginning to end. If they do this, they will win comfortably.
Swans by 25 points.
Sydney Cricket Ground, 7:10pm AEST, Saturday 26th July
The Story So Far
The Crows started the season with a narrow loss to the second best team in the comp. Thereafter they made their way to an 8-3 record at the mid point of the season. Only a couple of speed humps there, the most notable of which was our traditional demolition at the hands of West Coast.
Since that time though, it's been a very different story. The Crows lost in a thriller to the high flying Hawks, before progressively disintegrating against Brisbane, Geelong and Collingwood.
To this point we could at least argue that we'd only lost to teams in the top 8 (and our nemesis in West Coast). Things hit a new low in R16 when the Crows fell victim to a Port Adelaide team playing their "Grand Final in July". This loss was to a team who hadn't won in well over a month and who were not even close to making the finals.
Sydney also started the season with a loss, but returned to form with a run of 3 straight wins. They hit a couple of speed bumps in Geelong, North Melbourne & Footscray in consecutive weeks. Since then they've only lost twice, to well credentialed Hawthorn and Collingwood.
Like Adelaide, Sydney have struggled to beat the top teams. Unlike Adelaide, they haven't slipped up against Brisbane or any of the bottom 8 sides.
The History
The Crows have had the wood over the Swans for years. Put simply, they've become our bunnies. Adelaide have won 8 of the last 9 encounters between these two sides, with 4 of those wins coming at the SCG.
Adelaide's only loss in that streak was in Neil Craig's 2nd ever game as coach (while he was still technically in caretaker mode). Even in that game, Adelaide won 3 of 4 quarters - though Sydney put enough hurt on the board in the quarter they won to ensure the result went their way.
However, it's not been a good year for the Crows and their bunnies. Going into the year we had minor bunny holdings on Brisbane & Collingwood, with North & Port dressing up in rabbit suits every time they faced us. Of these, only North's bunny status remains intact. If ever Sydney were to overcome their mental block and defeat us, this would be the time.
The Game Plans
Adelaide & Sydney both have two gameplans - one dour, boring and defensive, the other attractive, high scoring and offensive.
In the past, Sydney have generally reserved their attacking option for two situations - against weaker sides for whom they have little respect and for better sides, in the final term when the dour & boring plan has failed dismally and they found themselves on the scoreboard. Their dour & boring gameplan has generally been used to combat the better sides, in an attempt to shutdown their opponent's ability to score. It's rarely been successful, but that's never stopped them from using it. On the other hand, with the firepower they've had at their disposal, their attractive attacking gameplan is frequently devastatingly effective.
Adelaide started the year using their attacking gameplan, playing on through the corridor and moving the ball quickly into attack. It worked like a dream early in the season, with 100+ point scores kicked in 5 of the first 9 games. Since then they've only managed it once - against Richmond.
Somewhere, somehow, Adelaide lost their way and reverted to the old chip-chip possession game which made them one of the least attractive teams to watch during the injury plagued 2007. Having had relatively few injuries this year, the backsliding can only be put down to a lack of confidence and a lack of decent forwards. The latter problem was compounded when they lost Burton & Porplyzia in the R14 game against Collingwood, thus depriving the Crows of their only two forwards with any X-factor.
On the whole, Sydney have been far more attacking than the Crows this year, scoring 66 more points than the Crows. Underscoring Adelaide's midfield weaknesses, the Crows defence have conceded 158 more points than the Swans this year.
Adelaide's Team
B: Graham Johncock, Ben Rutten, Nathan Bassett
HB: Kris Massie, Nathan Bock, Michael Doughty
C: Brad Symes, Simon Goodwin, Andrew McLeod
HF: Chris Knights, Nick Gill, Nathan van Berlo
F: Tyson Edwards, Kurt Tippett, Bernie Vince
R: Ivan Maric, Scott Thompson, Robert Shirley
Int: Brad Moran, Richard Douglas, Scott Stevens, Bryce Campbell
The only change I see happening is Luke Jericho being omitted after another soft as butter performance in the Showdown. He will be replaced by Nick Gill, who kicked 7 goals in an unusually accurate display of goalkicking prowess for North Adelaide.
Crows fans will be hoping to see Taylor Walker's name appear on the team list, but they are unlikely to receive any joy. Apparently he's not the solution to our forward line woes - which begs two questions: What IS the solution? And do we even know what the question is?
Sydney's Changes
Michael O'Loughlin looks like being a big omission for the Swans, missing with an ankle injury. He's kicked 36 goals this year and leads their goalscoring list by 15. In Hall's absence he's been an ever reliable avenue to goal.
Barry Hall appears set to make his return, having previously been dumped from the team after his second attempt to remove an opponent's head from his shoulders. Big Bad Bustling Barry might have spent most of the year on the sidelines, but he's been a potent force when he has taken to the field - with 17 goals from 7 games, including two bags of 5.
Leo Barry also appears likely to miss out, courtesy of a hamstring complaint. Given the weakness of Adelaide's forward line, I doubt he will even be missed.
Ryan O'Keefe is carrying a knee injury, which required injections last week in order for him to see out the game. Must have been something good in the syringe though, because he picked up a game-high 29 disposals last week.
Adam Goodes also played out the game last week with a groin injury, but it almost certainly won't be enough to make him miss this week. They have some seriously good medicos in the Harbour Town.
The Match Ups
Barry Hall's inclusion is ironically a bonus for Adelaide. Ben Rutten has an outstanding record against him and will once again be tasked with handling one of the game's few remaining gorilla type forwards. Rutten seems to struggle when opposed by a more nimble smaller forward, so the return of Hall will give him someone he is naturally equipped to combat.
In the absence of Mickey O, Ryan O'Keefe is probably their next most dangerous forward. Doughty will probably get the job here, having the engine to go with him as he ventures into the middle of the ground (O'Keefe is also Sydney's 2nd highest possession winner).
Jarrad McVeigh is Sydney's second highest goal scorer, with 21 goals to his name. Massie, Bassett or Johncock will be given this assignment (Massie being my first preference).
Nathan Bock will probably get to run with Henry Playfair. All due respect to Playfair, but this should be a big win to the Crows.
Adam Goodes will face a new opponent. Adelaide used to have Mattner run with him, but now Mattner's on their side. Shirley's our primary stopper, but I'm not sure he'll be able to go with Goodes. Maybe we'll just opt to go head-to-head with him and hope to come out even - this could easily backfire as Goodes can seriously hurt you if allowed to roam free.
Kurt Tippett is Adelaide's only forward of any note, unless Nick Gill makes his return. Tippett would probably be held by Lewis Roberts-Thompson.
Not sure who Nick Gill would attract, in the absence of Leo Barry. Might even be former Crow Martin Mattner.
The Result
The Crows are down on confidence, with a forward line that hasn't kicked more than 11 goals in a game since R11.
Sydney are coming off a hard fought win over Carlton, with 3 wins from their last 5 games. The Swans should be far more confident than the Crows, particularly on their own home ground.
Adelaide's only chance is to turn this game into a low scoring slugfest. If they can do that, then they just might be successful.
On the other hand, there is no reason I can think of why Sydney should dignify the Crows with their dour, boring gameplan. If they have any sense at all, they will attack from beginning to end. If they do this, they will win comfortably.
Swans by 25 points.
