Racing February Daily Punt - The Messiah Returns (Winx not Palcatino)

[iluvparis]

Who did it beat again? I know it was a bunch of sandown mugs that haven't won a good race in decades, but just need reminding.

FP Tb BM Horsewt Jockey (bp)TrainerSP
1st 7 0.1LBEAUTIFUL ROMANCE57 GLYN SCHOFIELD (5)SAEED BIN SUROOR4-1
2nd 3 0.1LALMOONQITH59 DAMIEN OLIVER (4)D & B HAYES & T DABERNIG9-2
3rd 2 0.3LBIG ORANGE59 DAMIAN LANE (2)M L W BELL9-2
4th 8 4.3LSO SI BON50.5 CRAIG WILLIAMS (8)ROBBIE LAING5-1
5th 1 4.5LWHO SHOT THEBARMAN59 HUGH BOWMAN (1)CHRIS WALLER11-4
6th 6 7.5LTRANSFER ALLOWANCE59 CHRIS SYMONS (3)PETER ROCHE150-1
7th 4 27LSECRET NUMBER59 STEPHEN BASTER (6)SAEED BIN SUROOR7-1
8th 5 57LTRISTRAM'S SUN59 KERRIN MCEVOY (7)ROBBIE LAING100-1

Remember this when everyone tips you Secret Number for the Melbourne Cup for the third straight year in 2017

Such a lolworthy race - So Si Bon $6

 

[Duritz]

That's actually the only time Palentino has been first home against rivals he'll face in the Futurity.

BHB has beaten him thrice (twice in G1s over this exact distance), Rokki beat him home in the Cantala, and FnR beat him home first up last spring.

Where do you reckon Palcatino will finish on Sat?

 

[iluvparis]

Where do you reckon Palcatino will finish on Sat?

Good question - just perusing the field he'd almost be my Exacta horse but would be worried that at least one of TML, Tosen, Ecuador, or Rokki could beat him. So I'll say third

 

[Duritz]

Good question - just perusing the field he'd almost be my Exacta horse but would be worried that at least one of TML, Tosen, Ecuador, or Rokki could beat him. So I'll say third

Attention one out for first?

#oakdoorform

 

[Gavin Excell]

Good question - just perusing the field he'd almost be my Exacta horse but would be worried that at least one of TML, Tosen, Ecuador, or Rokki could beat him. So I'll say third

Though your thoughts are somewhat biased by your deep admiration for japanese superstar Tosen Stardom

 

[Watts4Dinner]

Though your thoughts are somewhat biased by your deep admiration for japanese superstar Tosen Stardom

TBF he just needs a decent run at it this prep. Saturday probably isn't his day but he's clearly a high class horse that hasn't been able to get any consistent racing since arriving.

 

[iluvparis]

TBF he just needs a decent run at it this prep. Saturday probably isn't his day but he's clearly a high class horse that hasn't been able to get any consistent racing since arriving.

May have been a high class horse in the past - has been anything but since Autumn 2015 - going on two years now he has basically been spanked any time he has seen black type company.

 

[Jugada]

May have been a high class horse in the past - has been anything but since Autumn 2015 - going on two years now he has basically been spanked any time he has seen black type company.

Hardly. Getting beat 3L by Maurice and A Shine Hikari is nothing to be embarrassed about. He hasn't been able to get on the track enough lately to know one way or the other

 

[iluvparis]

Hardly. Getting beat 3L by Maurice and A Shine Hikari is nothing to be embarrassed about. He hasn't been able to get on the track enough lately to know one way or the other

Yes he has - ASH produced a couple of freak runs but has been found out as an absolute fraud. Since the 2015 Championswamps Tosen Starcat has had 6 starts in Black Type company and hasn't placed. I'd rate your argument if he was finshing 2nd or 3rd behind them but he is finishing behind a boatload of other runners.

I guess his half a length defeat of the The Cleaner last spring was pretty good form in hindsight

 

[Jugada]

Yes he has - ASH produced a couple of freak runs but has been found out as an absolute fraud. Since the 2015 Championswamps Tosen Starcat has had 6 starts in Black Type company and hasn't placed. I'd rate your argument if he was finshing 2nd or 3rd behind them but he is finishing behind a boatload of other runners.

I guess his half a length defeat of the The Cleaner last spring was pretty good form in hindsight

Pretty sure he has had 7 starts and won a Listed race in between. Also that win by A Shin Hikari was during those half a dozen runs when he was going like a bomb.

He was finishing 3 lengths behind horses like Maurice, ASH and Isla Bonita that's elite form over there. I dont know what you think he was capable of before he came to Aus the first time but he was in no better form then

 

[iluvparis]

Pretty sure he has had 7 starts and won a Listed race in between. Also that win by A Shin Hikari was during those half a dozen runs when he was going like a bomb.

He was finishing 3 lengths behind horses like Maurice, ASH and Isla Bonita that's elite form over there. I dont know what you think he was capable of before he came to Aus the first time but he was in no better form then

If it was so elite why did he subsequently go nowhere near winning when dropping back in Grade in Japan - nor when running against Aussie superstars like Set Square and Real Love.

We had this debate in the Spring - people HUGELY over rate results getting well held/well beaten by good horses. Plenty of rubbish horses finished within 3 lengths of Black Caviar over there careers.

Feel free to back him on some mythical formline you have drawn through ASH and Maurice. I won't be.

 

[Jugada]

Was clearly the run of the race in the Dato too, sever underrating going on

 

[iluvparis]

Was clearly the run of the race in the Dato too, sever underrating going on

Not it wasn't The United States was a better run of the defeated and let's not forget Awesome Rock bolted in by 3 before running a huge race in the Cox Plate and winning the Emirates.

The winner was the run of the race.

While I may be slightly underrating his Dato run you are hugely OVERRATING his very ordinary Japanese form since the 2015 Championswamps.

 

[Jugada]

If it was so elite why did he subsequently go nowhere near winning when dropping back in Grade in Japan - nor when running against Aussie superstars like Set Square and Real Love.

We had this debate in the Spring - people HUGELY over rate results getting well held/well beaten by good horses. Plenty of rubbish horses finished within 3 lengths of Black Caviar over there careers.

Feel free to back him on some mythical formline you have drawn through ASH and Maurice. I won't be.

He did when he dropped back in grade after the ASH run and like i said with even luck he wins the Dato here.

Im not saying he is some superstar but you acting like he was a gun who fell off a cliff after the 2015 Autumn is ridiculous. He won a weak G3 in Japan after getting stomped by panels against better horses before coming here the first time and he more than measured up. His form is no worse now than it was when he came here last time and in fact he was finishing closer to better horses

 

[iluvparis]

He did when he dropped back in grade after the ASH run and like i said with even luck he wins the Dato here.

Im not saying he is some superstar but you acting like he was a gun who fell off a cliff after the 2015 Autumn is ridiculous. He won a weak G3 in Japan after getting stomped by panels against better horses before coming here the first time and he more than measured up. His form is no worse now than it was when he came here last time and in fact he was finishing closer to better horses

He also dropped back in grade after the Maurice run and was spanked....twice

ASH went on to be an absolute fraud subsequently.

He is CLEARLY going worse than when he came for that 2015 autumn (having won his last start) and has CLEARLY fallen off a cliff. You are being completely blinded by yellow fever (understandable I admit).

If he was a European horse people would be giving him none.

The only thing he has going for him is a Weir milkshake.

 

[Jugada]

He also dropped back in grade after the Maurice run and was spanked....twice

ASH went on to be an absolute fraud subsequently.

He is CLEARLY going worse than when he came for that 2015 autumn (having won his last start) and has CLEARLY fallen off a cliff. You are being completely blinded by yellow fever (understandable I admit).

If he was a European horse people would be giving him none.

The only thing he has going for him is a Weir milkshake.

Wipe that s**t off your mouth mate it's distracting

If you're only going to focus on the losses then what's the point? Sure he put in a couple of average runs but he also got towelled up in 4 races in a row before he won that G3 and came here the first time. My point is he was never a star there is only a marginal difference between his form now and then. But he measured up then and i expect him to measure up now unless he has lost a leg since the Dato

ASH went on to demolish them in HK. You are taking the piss if you think you can dismiss all of his wins just because he isn't going as well now

 

[iluvparis]

Looking at his form SINCE Autumn 2015 you are kidding yourself if you think it hasn't been disappointing. He has measured up in ONE race since and half a race if you think beating the cleaner 0.5 length last spring is good form.

As I said - feel free to back him in whatever you like. I won't be.

He is a HUGELY overrated conveyance based on one season when Aussies suddenly got a massive hard on for Japanese horses that still exists to this present day. He couldn't even beat Catributor in that Autumn and was spanked in the QE!

 

[FallingLiefs]

Isla Bonita hasn't really turned it on since his 3yo season, managed to place in a couple weak g1's for their standards, around horses like staphanos.
Maurice is an odd one, i'm convinced he didn't really bring his best outside a few of his dominant early miles and then needed 2000m to be devastating.
ASH started 50:1 for that HK run so i'm not sure that form of his quantifies as super strong from pre-HK/france.
Satono Aladdin beat him home in that mile too, that's a fair indicator of weakness there.
the only strong form line is real impact who looked twice as good over here compared to over there, even if the form is good he and TTW that year showed it's whoever acclimatizes.

i'd have huge questions on that g1 japanese race he run 3.5L off them in.

as for this week, he's too consistently average on the runs i have seen and can quantify to expect him to beat BHB who i will say again is the most consistent horse in australia. i just can't have him magically improving to beat him over 1400 which again is not his best distance. he might come good however it's unlikely to be this week so. at the moment all his runs indicate he's a strong G2 horse who could improve over further or with more consistency so i don't understand the tip for him first up in this field over 1400. to me it just sounds like people trying to get bart beat.

 

[Jugada]

No chance he is winning tomorrow but is a legitimate top 3 horse for the Australian Cup i think

 

[FallingLiefs]

well then we shouldn't have to worry about his japanese form once we get to the aus cup if that's the case.

 

[Jugada]

Piss off I don't want any of you johnny come lately's jumping on after he puts in a couple of nice lead up runs

 

[Duritz]

Such anger ITT.

 

[The Dawes]

Fell Swoop should be very hard to beat tomorrow, looks primed to breakthrough at Group 1 level - also my old mate Flamberge should run well as long as he handles the quick back up.

Not so keen on the Extreme Choice at the price.

 

[Jugada]

Oakleigh Plate looks a complete crapshoot so will probably just have a quaddie ticket with a few runners at 20-1+ for entertainment value. Of the ones in the market Sheidel looks the clear best of them

 

[iluvparis]

No chance he is winning tomorrow but is a legitimate top 3 horse for the Australian Cup i think

Given I have him as a top 5 chance tomorrow I don't disagree - but that's because outside the top 2 or 3 (which doesn't include him) its a complete lottery. Jameka and Awesome Rock will murder him.