Other Gambling Discussion

[TheGreatBarryB]

Re: Danielz punting himself to glory

Marshawn Lynch will run for 100+ this week, especially as Zach Thomas is out again.

Agree with most of Danielz tips, especially these ones :

Indy -3.5 , even H2H @ $1.50 if you don't like the spread. Indy on the rebound, Castillo and possible Jammer out of Chargers D. Indy are a monty this week.

Buffalo H2H @ $1.70 although -3 @ $2.15 is very tempting.

Atl +3.5 and Atl -Car U36. Strong D's, crap QB's

Detroit deserve to be favourite against the Cards and the Cards have cost me a few times this season in failing to cover the spread. I'll take Lions +1.5

Cinci +3.5 - I know i shouldn't touch Cinci with a barge pole but that Ravens O can make even the Cinci D look good. Plus with all the inj concerns on the Ravens D, i reckon Palmer can go 300+

Dallas H2H @ $1.80
Saints -10.5 @ $2 - Brees nearly 800 yds last 2 games. Can't see Rams stopping them. Over 46 pts on this game looks good as well.

 

[fuey]

Re: Danielz punting himself to glory

Don't be fooled by the Packers run D either. They are good but not great. The pass happy Packers are putting points on the board early and forcing teams away from their running game. The Vikings did put 150yds on the ground against them last time and that was with AP having only 12 carries.

Not 100% correct there JD.

25-94 Phi, 13-13 at 3/4 time
15-90 NYG, 14-13
27-74 SD, 17-21
21-155 Minn, 13-9
31-78 Chi, 20-17
26-88 Wash, 17-14
21-81 Den, 13-10
22-61 KC, 13-7

(The numbers on the left are rush attempts and yards by all RBs in that game).

120-104, which means the average score in GB games at 3/4 time is 15-13. Team don't exactly abandon the run with that scoreline. Only one would've been the Giants, and I think the run/pass ratio Vs. GB is about 25/31, which isn't exactly an astounding number.

Yes, we've been ahead in all but two games, but we've also been behind in the 4th quarter a few times.

And we've stuffed some good backs too. Westbrook, Tomlinson, Portis and Johnson. Allowing only 3.7ypc.

True, Peterson schooled us last time out, but this weeks team is the first to have first-hand experience playing against him. They'll be ready for him this time. And lets be honest, we WILL stack the line. They have nothing outside Woodson and Harris can't handle by themselves.

I say he has 20 carries, 80 yards. Wouldn't be surprised if they get him heavily involved in the passing game also, get him out in the flat and let him do the rest. They know we'll pack it in tight, so it's the obvious thing to do. Though Childress and co. isn't exactly the brightest coach/es going around.

Wouldn't mind seeing AP/Nicky B go mano a mano, all day long either.

 

[JeffDunne]

Re: Danielz punting himself to glory

Thanks for that fuey . . . I knew I should have checked the stats.

If your D can hold him to 80 yards I'll be impressed.

 

[fuey]

Re: Danielz punting himself to glory

Thanks for that fuey . . . I knew I should have checked the stats.

If your D can hold him to 80 yards I'll be impressed.

Sorry, dude...

I figure you're usually right most of the time, so calling you out once shouldn't hurt your rep too much

But, yeah, it's a bit of a misconception about us, the offense is far from dominant due to the lack of running game, but it does enough to score points when we need to.

 

[danielz_23]

Re: Danielz punting himself to glory

Thanks to Curtis, Philadelphia (at half time) and Tennessee I've had no success this week.

 

[danielz_23]

NFL Playoff Betting Odds

Good time of year to have a dabble at some of the end results in the playoffs now the competitors are known, although obviously the odds are no longer as juicy.

On Betfair :

New York Giants 18/1 - to win NFC
Washington 21/1 - to win NFC

SuperBowl winner...

New England 1.89/1
Indianapolis 7.20/1

Which I don't mind because I give Indianapolis every chance. $20 on New England, $10 on Indianapolis will give you a $7.80 return on NE as cover but $42 return on Indianapolis.

I honestly see this as only a two horse race.

 

[arakaan]

Re: NFL Playoff Betting Odds

the $20 on NE is a waste of time.
The difference between losing $10 and losing $2.20 if NE win is not a good reason to increase your potential loss exposure by 200% and reduce your potential win by 50%.

 

[SNIPER_]

Re: NFL Playoff Betting Odds

I threw $1000 on the Patriots @ 7/1 to win it all the day they traded for Randy Moss..

 

[Wizard]

Re: NFL Playoff Betting Odds

I threw $1000 on the Patriots @ 7/1 to win it all the day they traded for Randy Moss..

Your full of sh*t to.

 

[danielz_23]

Re: NFL Playoff Betting Odds

thats great... good luck with that but it isn't over the line so I wouldn't go throwing it around and jinxing yourself. I just don't understand these people who think they are over the line. Every game is going to be so competitive and 16-0 stands for nothing now... its just a couple of lines in the record books.

They got the same as Indianapolis, Dallas and Green Bay. A first round by and HF advantage... at least for the second round.

 

[camsmith]

Re: NFL Playoff Betting Odds

I wouldn't even touch the AFC. Go for an NFC team because on superbowl day ANYTHING can happen.

I'd have $10 on Washington and $20 on GB.

 

[Woodson]

Re: NFL Playoff Betting Odds

thats great... good luck with that but it isn't over the line so I wouldn't go throwing it around and jinxing yourself. I just don't understand these people who think they are over the line. Every game is going to be so competitive and 16-0 stands for nothing now... its just a couple of lines in the record books.

They got the same as Indianapolis, Dallas and Green Bay. A first round by and HF advantage... at least for the second round.

Well said Danielz. And let's not get me started on how helpful HOME FIELD advantage was during the PLAY-OFFS with AFC teams in recent seasons.. notably 2005.

Only takes a few BIG PLAYS to turn a game on it's HEAD. Whether any team is capable to overcome those plays that swings the momentum against them, stay unfazed will surely benefit. O-Lines can dictate so much until something unbecoming occurs. That's the beauty of the play-offs, every year we see something different where a player that isn't a marquee type, RISES to the challenge and makes a name for himself. On the flipside, the trusty types fall in a HOLE.

 

[fuey]

Re: NFL Playoff Betting Odds

Just a little stat...

The last time two #1 seeds both got to the Superbowl?

1993.

There's going to be an "upset" somewhere...

 

[SNIPER_]

Re: NFL Playoff Betting Odds

Your full of sh*t to.

You wish mate... I got the slip right in my top drawer in my desk..

 

[CONS_SS]

Re: NFL Playoff Betting Odds

You wish mate... I got the slip right in my top drawer in my desk..

scan it and post it on here!

btw, good idea putting it in your drawer....a couple of years ago I had a ticket that I accidently left in direct sunlight and when I came back the bloody thing had faded....lucky it wasn't a winning ticket. Those dodgy ****ers, what will they think of next, disappearing ink?! Of course these days I use an internet account....

 

[Galactic]

Re: NFL Playoff Betting Odds

Just a little stat...

The last time two #1 seeds both got to the Superbowl?

1993.

There's going to be an "upset" somewhere...

I say it's going to be Dallas that looses it in their first game sorry dal fans, although I prob should not be, you beat my team like a rented mule daily...verbally that is..hehe

as for betting online...ah yeah I live in the land of the "free" not really that free and easy

 

[Woodson]

Re: NFL Playoff Betting Odds

As of today, the prices for the SB XLII Winner as follows:

New England $1.60
Indianapolis $6.00
Dallas $6.50
Green Bay $12.00
Jacksonville $17.00
San Diego $17.00
Pittsburgh $34.00
Seattle $34.00
Tampa Bay $51.00
NY Giants $67.00
Washington $81.00
Tennessee $101.00

**************************************
WildCard Play-offs Prices

Washington $2.63 H2h
Seattle $1.49 H2h (-3.5 / 40.5)

Jacksonville $1.74 H2h (-2.5 / 38.5)
Pittsburgh $2.10

NY Giants $2.15 H2h
Tampa Bay $1.71 H2h (-2.5 / 39.5)

Tennessee $4.45 H2h
San Diego $1.21 H2h (-9.0 / 39.5)

All spreads (means favourite has to cover points) & total game points pay $1.91.

Good Luck Punting.

****************************************************

 

[Wizard]

Re: NFL Playoff Betting Odds

Washington $2.63 H2h
Seattle $1.49 H2h (-3.5 / 40.5) Under 40.5

NY Giants $2.15 H2h
Tampa Bay $1.71 H2h (-2.5 / 39.5)


****************************************************

They are the two quality lines IMO.

 

[Woodson]

Re: NFL Playoff Betting Odds

SUPER BOWL odds after Divisional Play-offs

New England $1.35
Green Bay $5.00
San Diego $15.00
NY Giants $17.00


New England $1.10 (better than Bank Interest!!)
San Diego $7.00 (excellent odds for two horse race)

Green Bay $1.30 ($100 bet pays back the AE tipping comp cost + interest)
NY Giants $3.55 (Only two seasons ago another team won 3 on the road)


SanDiego/NE Unders / Overs 47.5pts 1.90
NYG/GB Unders/Overs 41.5 1.90

Game Line Spread

Patriots -14.0 $1.91
Packers -7.0 $1.91

 

[Woodson]

Re: NFL Playoff Betting Odds

**BUMP**

Thought I'd bump this thread for good measure. G-Men were 67-1 on the eve of the play-offs with VIC TAB.

WHAT A BOLTER!!! (bloody ironic ain't it???)

 

[Dagless]

Re: NFL Playoff Betting Odds

I threw $1000 on the Patriots @ 7/1 to win it all the day they traded for Randy Moss..

If true... OUCH.... That the end of your football betting Snipe

 

[Dagless]

Re: NFL Playoff Betting Odds

**BUMP**

Thought I'd bump this thread for good measure. G-Men were 67-1 on the eve of the play-offs with VIC TAB.

WHAT A BOLTER!!! (bloody ironic ain't it???)

And goddamn i hate being a pessimistic better... I never bet on playoffs (Normally odds too low for realistic paybacks) but goddamn... Oh well, I made my money on the last regular game of the Giants year...

 

[montybrasco]

Re: NFL Playoff Betting Odds

Never be a pessimistic bettor, you’ll always be second-guessing yourself. Betting on the finals and play-offs is one of the best times as it’s like a whole new short season, which is like kind of playing with a short deck: there’s only so many cards that can come up.

First rule of gambling: never gamble
Second rule: always off-lay (Dr. Turf)
Third rule: never back bad teams (Jon Anderson, Melb. Herald Sun)
Fourth rule: use your head not your heart.


I was keen for the Bucs, Cowboys, Packers, and Pats to beat the now-White Whale known as the Giants. But in losing in those four games I applied rule 2, starting the play-offs by taking the Giants @ $18 to win the NFC Championship and subsequent Super Bowl off-lays @ $16 and $18(parlays with other sports events). Guaranteed a profit by taking the Giants @ $5.35 when the books opened after they beat the Packers. With the game up for grabs early in the last quarter, off-laid all possible winnings on Pats earlier bets to brake even if then Pats won.

End result: $419 profit. Giants won; I won. Sweet! The bookies don’t gamble, why should we.

If Sniper26 did have a substantial pre-season bet (gamble), he surely would have off-laid in the play-offs to guarantee a decent profit; or, he’s an example of why the bookies make a lot of money. Gambling!

 

[Dagless]

Re: NFL Playoff Betting Odds

I am pessimistic when it comes to betting on my own team... I know emotion will almost always get involved in the playoffs... lol should have let them take over for my Giants...

 

[montybrasco]

Re: NFL Playoff Betting Odds

Oops, I forgot to mention the loose change off-lay bets on the Giants parlays through January to set up future betting strategies. I did indeed share in a Giants victory.

Giants / Hawthorn flag - $20 for return of $965
Giants / Collingwood flag - $15 for return of $962
Giants / St. Kilda flag - $8 for return of $692
Giants / Boston Celtics NBA champs - $7 for return of $160

Sweet! Only eat tasty humble pie...