True, but we never had that many to begin with. Even going back to 1999 we've only had 4 picks in total from within the top 10 (Corey, Bartel, Mackie, and Tenace). It was a point of pride for plenty of Geelong fans that unlikely especially Carlton, St.Kilda, and Hawthorn we built a great team without very early or priority picks. Not one.
And while we definitely didn't drop that badly at any point (haven't finished bottom 4 since 1986), he still managed to find Kelly, Chapman, Ling, Enright, Johnson etc. from way outside the perceived early pick range. It seems that plenty on here don't seem to think that's even possible now. At the same club, with the same recruiter.
Agree completely on development too. Vital.
Certainly .. its a blend of early and not early picks... too many of either seems to distort a list. Corey, Bartel, Mackie, Tenace and Selwood are far from the sole reason we were flag winners, and some may say that picking top 10 kids that requires less of peopel like SW than the later picks. Its rare that names come from no where to be in the top10 now, most phantomes get close to the mark... but without those players I doubt we can build a flags side from scratch. Historically there may be examples but ist very rare. Most , if not all premierships sides have players they have drafted from within the top 10. I cant think of when the last flags side did not have someone like that .
That we also had such good Father Sons results , that at least one of the drafts was perhaps the best draft of all time, that not all clubs were as well focused and informed ..probably distorted how well we did. In 2001 we were actually disadvantaged by priority picks... the Bartel pick should have been earlier. So sometimes fate plays a part.
So does that mean we should not go for kids.. no. I, similar to you, believe we can draft and find players .. and with time and a little luck we can players from picks within the top 40-60 kids. Just how good they will be is hard to gauge. Most will have flaw that was the cause of their dropping. Sav for example... I just do not think we can have a side built from them. In the end I think you probably lack class
Just who we miss out on for Cameron for example is hard to say... who would have we picked if we had those picks..again hard to say but again they would not have been top ten. Most likely we get one or two kids the quality of Guthrie or Parfitt. Not obviously AA but players that might just be in our best 5-10 in five years time.