List Mgmt. Graeme Wrights Recruiting (Analysing HFC recruiting from 2011-present)

[Sixpence]

What does Ben Stratton have to do with this thread?

Good question, why are you asking?

 

[Roger Rogerson]

Finn's dominant displays in the "TAC Cup" were largely due to:

1. Him being more physically developed than most other players
2. His elite hands and ability to move through stoppage

But those performances were full of flaws. Half the time it was a little cringey.

He doesn't have elite run or speed. Not by AFL standards. He is capable in those areas, like Liam Shiels, like Kennedy.

There were reasons why he drifted to pick 30, which was the earliest I would have picked him. I predicted he would go around there.

People shouldn't get me wrong. Finn could blossom and turn out to be a gun. Or he could apply his inside weapons and become a reliable B+ mid. Or he could just fizzle, because of his limitations, against bigger bodies.

My point is that Finn comes into the AFL as an average player for a mid picked in the draft: he doesn't come in as a "potential star".

I would rather he exceed expectations than fail to live up to media hype.

The draft camp results are not the same as game day demonstrations.

I get what you are saying. From what i have seen he isnt a star and the hype which was generated by his draft camp results really didnt translate into anything come draft day - he was bid on around pick 30 which confirms his market value - certainly no-one bid on him early like Green or Liam Henry as a 'must-have' from the 1st round. The hawks had him as a 2nd rounder.

i agree that the draft camp results dont really show through in the way he plays but it is nice to know that he has those athletic qualities underlying his game as it provides confidence that there is a strong base to build his AFL game around. That is really all we can take away from the draft camp results that he is less of a risk in terms of being able to keep up at AFL level rather than taking a kid who might be a better footballer but has big queries over speed and/or endurance which mean he is up against ever making it.

His game is a bit unassuming so i see him as a link in the chain rather than a playmaker. Hence running to the right spots and skills are the key for him. His possession numbers suggest he is ok at winning the ball (is a level back from the top midfielders in the draft) and he isnt a standout kicking-wise. I am hoping he spends time in the middle to carry the load to free up JOM and other class mids to spend more time forward but i suspect he will spend the majority of the year at VFL level learning the caper.

i do think that he has been overhyped a bit in here due to the draft camp results so i think your post appropriately tempers expectations. I am more bullish than you are on his prospects - i feel like you may have possibly overstated your concerns? - as i think he will be a nice player in time but dont expect he will be "plug n play" at AFL level like quite a few around here.

 

[Luv_our_club]

I get what you are saying. From what i have seen he isnt a star and the hype which was generated by his draft camp results really didnt translate into anything come draft day - he was bid on around pick 30 which confirms his market value - certainly no-one bid on him early like Green or Liam Henry as a 'must-have' from the 1st round. The hawks had him as a 2nd rounder.

i agree that the draft camp results dont really show through in the way he plays but it is nice to know that he has those athletic qualities underlying his game as it provides confidence that there is a strong base to build his AFL game around. That is really all we can take away from the draft camp results that he is less of a risk in terms of being able to keep up at AFL level rather than taking a kid who might be a better footballer but has big queries over speed and/or endurance which mean he is up against ever making it.

His game is a bit unassuming so i see him as a link in the chain rather than a playmaker. Hence running to the right spots and skills are the key for him. His possession numbers suggest he is ok at winning the ball (is a level back from the top midfielders in the draft) and he isnt a standout kicking-wise. I am hoping he spends time in the middle to carry the load to free up JOM and other class mids to spend more time forward but i suspect he will spend the majority of the year at VFL level learning the caper.

i do think that he has been overhyped a bit in here due to the draft camp results so i think your post appropriately tempers expectations. I am more bullish than you are on his prospects - i feel like you may have possibly overstated your concerns? - as i think he will be a nice player in time but dont expect he will be "plug n play" at AFL level like quite a few around here.

Cheers RR!

We saw the same thing.

The media and some others say Will is "Kennedy with speed"... which is not what i saw. Josh Kennedy is a freak... it would be a dream if Will can come close to him.

What you say about the draft camp results is so concise and couldn't be explained better.

Re me overstating my concerns? I will say that I expect Will to remain in the system long enough to play AFL games as he has an edge on most VFL talent. And I wouldn't put a ceiling on what he could become... he could become a top player at our club.

 

[Kenyan]

Sounds like Finn has the physical attributes. Give him 2/3 years with Sam Mitchell and there could be a lot of upside.

 

[Luv_our_club]

Sounds like Finn has the physical attributes. Give him 2/3 years with Sam Mitchell and there could be a lot of upside.

That sounds realistic to me. Hopefully there is a lot of upside. He is not fully formed or a dominating player right now based on juniors. But he has AFL level abilities.

Josh Kennedy was similar when he entered the professional system.

 

[MasterSamurai]

Would love for Finn to be similar to Jordan Lewis !! Big heavy inside mid who can take overhead marks, kick goals and transform into a excellent inside/outside mid with smarts and cool under pressure. That would do me.

 

[TheFourPillars]

Would love for Finn to be similar to Jordan Lewis !! Big heavy inside mid who can take overhead marks, kick goals and transform into a excellent inside/outside mid with smarts and cool under pressure. That would do me.

Jordan lewis was one of our better disposers. He was a star. Finn is a different type of player. He will find his own path

 

[KermitJagger]

I get what you are saying. From what i have seen he isnt a star and the hype which was generated by his draft camp results really didnt translate into anything come draft day - he was bid on around pick 30 which confirms his market value - certainly no-one bid on him early like Green or Liam Henry as a 'must-have' from the 1st round. The hawks had him as a 2nd rounder.

i agree that the draft camp results dont really show through in the way he plays but it is nice to know that he has those athletic qualities underlying his game as it provides confidence that there is a strong base to build his AFL game around. That is really all we can take away from the draft camp results that he is less of a risk in terms of being able to keep up at AFL level rather than taking a kid who might be a better footballer but has big queries over speed and/or endurance which mean he is up against ever making it.

His game is a bit unassuming so i see him as a link in the chain rather than a playmaker. Hence running to the right spots and skills are the key for him. His possession numbers suggest he is ok at winning the ball (is a level back from the top midfielders in the draft) and he isnt a standout kicking-wise. I am hoping he spends time in the middle to carry the load to free up JOM and other class mids to spend more time forward but i suspect he will spend the majority of the year at VFL level learning the caper.

i do think that he has been overhyped a bit in here due to the draft camp results so i think your post appropriately tempers expectations. I am more bullish than you are on his prospects - i feel like you may have possibly overstated your concerns? - as i think he will be a nice player in time but dont expect he will be "plug n play" at AFL level like quite a few around here.

The only real difference between Finn and Green that I saw is Green's accumulation and natural footy sense is better, though athletically (not necessarily endurance wise as Green's repeat effort is quite strong) Finn seems to be a level above. I watched a fair bit of both, though not as much of Green given the difficulty of watching the academy kids. It's not so much the stuff that Finn has done this year that makes him a good pick-up, it's his overall development over the course of the season which took him from being a potential rookie pick to a guy that was early second round material.

He definitely put all his wares on display.

 

[The Chad and I]

Cheers RR!

We saw the same thing.

The media and some others say Will is "Kennedy with speed"... which is not what i saw. Josh Kennedy is a freak... it would be a dream if Will can come close to him.

Kennedy was an average kick, poor runner, had terrible endurance and was a hesitant decision maker when he left Hawthorn.

It does seem to me that Maguinness is similar regarding his physical attributes and movement - but he is much further along the curve regarding physical preparation and application to training. We should be enthusiastic about him as a prospect.

 

[Davo-27]

Kennedy was an average kick, poor runner, had terrible endurance and was a hesitant decision maker when he left Hawthorn.

It does seem to me that Maguinness is similar regarding his physical attributes and movement - but he is much further along the curve regarding physical preparation and application to training. We should be enthusiastic about him as a prospect.

Kennedy was a good up and coming kid who was showing star potential, the fact people could not see that is frustrating to me, at the end the rumour is we chose Shiels who was "2 years younger" ahead of a player who asked for more opportunity off of a really good 2009 season where he had come in for a player who was injured and was really good for us, i guess asking/demanding for more opportunity when clubs come sniffing and offering big money is a bad thing? anyway it was the first mistake Clarko and his admin had made up until that point, but it all worked out because they made a lot of good decisions before/after that, so alls good, from what i saw Kennedy didnt improve that much at Sydney, he was just given opportunity, opportunity we didnt want to give him, same as Tom Mitchell, he isnt any better with us, he just got more opportunity and that netted him a Brownlow, they have very similar stories.

i was just thinking that the reason Clarko is one of the best coaches is that he generally makes good decisions, he is able to teach his players and gets along with everyone but also gets passionate about stamping out poor performances or attitudes, whenever i see Clarko get upset in the coaches box i know we will probably win, its when he is emotionless we generally lose.

with Clarko i have had a few criticisms over the years, showing favour to guys like Ellis/Shoey/TOB has been frustrating, i think the favouratism is based on high pick and recruiter information from SA or something, but whatever the source i think they need to detach too much reliability on this (Day and Morris indicate they have not), also recruiting players like Vickery/Mohr/Minchington/Hartley ect is frustrating to me, i know they play a role and that is to absorb salary cap space for the short term and provide instant options, but cloggers frustrate me and the possibility Kosi gets stuck behind Hartley is a real worry, only because Clarko loves experience over talent generally.

 

[KermitJagger]

Kennedy was a good up and coming kid who was showing star potential, the fact people could not see that is frustrating to me, at the end the rumour is we chose Shiels who was "2 years younger" ahead of a player who asked for more opportunity off of a really good 2009 season where he had come in for a player who was injured and was really good for us, i guess asking/demanding for more opportunity when clubs come sniffing and offering big money is a bad thing? anyway it was the first mistake Clarko and his admin had made up until that point, but it all worked out because they made a lot of good decisions before/after that, so alls good, from what i saw Kennedy didnt improve that much at Sydney, he was just given opportunity, opportunity we didnt want to give him, same as Tom Mitchell, he isnt any better with us, he just got more opportunity and that netted him a Brownlow, they have very similar stories.

i was just thinking that the reason Clarko is one of the best coaches is that he generally makes good decisions, he is able to teach his players and gets along with everyone but also gets passionate about stamping out poor performances or attitudes, whenever i see Clarko get upset in the coaches box i know we will probably win, its when he is emotionless we generally lose.

with Clarko i have had a few criticisms over the years, showing favour to guys like Ellis/Shoey/TOB has been frustrating, i think the favouratism is based on high pick and recruiter information from SA or something, but whatever the source i think they need to detach too much reliability on this (Day and Morris indicate they have not), also recruiting players like Vickery/Mohr/Minchington/Hartley ect is frustrating to me, i know they play a role and that is to absorb salary cap space for the short term and provide instant options, but cloggers frustrate me and the possibility Kosi gets stuck behind Hartley is a real worry, only because Clarko loves experience over talent generally.

The general story is that we wanted to keep Kennedy, but Sydney came offering more money and more opportunity that we couldn't quite match. Knowing that Sewell was ahead of him and still mid 20s, and that Shiels was younger and showing promise, meant that we let him go. Ultimately it wasn't our decision to get rid of him, he wanted to go and Sydney wanted him so we let him go.

Kennedy definitely had less exposed form with us than Titch did with Sydney.

 

[Worpedo_Magic69]

Kennedy was offered a one year deal, he chose to walk. The Hawks didn’t push him out the door. The Hawks said earn your spot and contract.

 

[tige19]

Would love for Finn to be similar to Jordan Lewis !! Big heavy inside mid who can take overhead marks, kick goals and transform into a excellent inside/outside mid with smarts and cool under pressure. That would do me.

Jordan had noodle arms

 

[The Chad and I]

Kennedy was a good up and coming kid who was showing star potential, the fact people could not see that is frustrating to me, at the end the rumour is we chose Shiels who was "2 years younger" ahead of a player who asked for more opportunity off of a really good 2009 season where he had come in for a player who was injured and was really good for us, i guess asking/demanding for more opportunity when clubs come sniffing and offering big money is a bad thing? anyway it was the first mistake Clarko and his admin had made up until that point, but it all worked out because they made a lot of good decisions before/after that, so alls good, from what i saw Kennedy didnt improve that much at Sydney, he was just given opportunity, opportunity we didnt want to give him, same as Tom Mitchell, he isnt any better with us, he just got more opportunity and that netted him a Brownlow, they have very similar stories.

Apparently he was given a massive talking to at Sydney and only then did he increase his training work rate and intensity.
You will see that it took until his third season at Sydney to really breakout into elite form.
- https://www.footywire.com/afl/footy/pc-sydney-swans--josh-p--kennedy

We made the right list management decision and so did he for his career.
People want a strong list & depth - and to never ever lose a player chasing more opportunity.
Can't please everybody it seems - not even with 3 premierships in a row.
Apparently there were things we should have done better!

 

[HODGEYROAD]

I don't think that Kennedy and Mitchell are that comparable, when each player left their respective clubs Kennedy had shown nowhere near the level Mitchell had shown in 2016, although I think Mitchell was 23 and Kennedy only 21 which does make a difference.

 

[Davo-27]

Apparently he was given a massive talking to at Sydney and only then did he increase his training work rate and intensity.
You will see that it took until his third season at Sydney to really breakout into elite form.
- https://www.footywire.com/afl/footy/pc-sydney-swans--josh-p--kennedy

We made the right list management decision and so did he for his career.
People want a strong list & depth - and to never ever lose a player chasing more opportunity.
Can't please everybody it seems - not even with 3 premierships in a row.
Apparently there were things we should have done better!

i was going to add the 3 premiership to the post so you couldnt use that cheap point, yes we succeeded because the club made many great decisions, but this was not one of them, this was a mistake, but in the greater scheme of things it didnt cost us much, a good player isnt worth premierships, but to think our club doesnt make mistakes and that if we make enough wont hurt us is delusional, calling them out for mistakes will hopefully lower the amount they make and therefore lead to more success hopefully, also to keep complacency at bay, i see keeping them honest as more valuable than cheerleading tbh, but different strokes for different folks.

all i remember is in 2009 i was a fan of Josh Kennedy i personally thought he was tracking to be a very good player, so when we traded him i was disappointed, if you cant except it was a mistake then fine, but from my pov it was AND he came from the most influential family from the family club and that doubly hurt, then he went on to play amazing footy for over a decade at a rival so triply devestating for us, then helping Sydney win 2012 which wouldnt have happened without him quadruple upsetting.

 

[The Chad and I]

i was going to add the 3 premiership to the post so you couldnt use that cheap point, yes we succeeded because the club made many great decisions, but this was not one of them, this was a mistake, but in the greater scheme of things it didnt cost us much, a good player isnt worth premierships, but to think our club doesnt make mistakes and that if we make enough wont hurt us is delusional, calling them out for mistakes will hopefully lower the amount they make and therefore lead to more success hopefully, also to keep complacency at bay, i see keeping them honest as more valuable than cheerleading tbh, but different strokes for different folks.

all i remember is in 2009 i was a fan of Josh Kennedy i personally thought he was tracking to be a very good player, so when we traded him i was disappointed, if you cant except it was a mistake then fine, but from my pov it was AND he came from the most influential family from the family club and that doubly hurt, then he went on to play amazing footy for over a decade at a rival so triply devestating for us, then helping Sydney win 2012 which wouldnt have happened without him quadruple upsetting.

The mistake wasn't letting Kennedy go, it was trading him for a packet a chips.
Should have been a pick nearer 20 for him & McGlynn.

 

[KermitJagger]

i was going to add the 3 premiership to the post so you couldnt use that cheap point, yes we succeeded because the club made many great decisions, but this was not one of them, this was a mistake, but in the greater scheme of things it didnt cost us much, a good player isnt worth premierships, but to think our club doesnt make mistakes and that if we make enough wont hurt us is delusional, calling them out for mistakes will hopefully lower the amount they make and therefore lead to more success hopefully, also to keep complacency at bay, i see keeping them honest as more valuable than cheerleading tbh, but different strokes for different folks.

all i remember is in 2009 i was a fan of Josh Kennedy i personally thought he was tracking to be a very good player, so when we traded him i was disappointed, if you cant except it was a mistake then fine, but from my pov it was AND he came from the most influential family from the family club and that doubly hurt, then he went on to play amazing footy for over a decade at a rival so triply devestating for us, then helping Sydney win 2012 which wouldnt have happened without him quadruple upsetting.

It's not as cut and dry as it being a mistake. Keeping Kennedy would have a flow on effect that we can't possibly be sure of, there's no guarantee that keeping him would have been good for us.

One of the picks we got in return for him drafted us Stratton, for example. If we had accepted his demands would we have been able to position for Gibson and Burgoyne like we did? He was asking a fair bit and Sydney gave him a fair chunk of change.

 

[tige19]

Always wished he would come back home... Despite what people say, he could have very well been the difference in us going on a 4peat or not, who knows? He is still bloody elite today, but he was sublime from 2012-2017, only barely tapering off now.

 

[Easy Slips Catch]

2012 was his break out season. Who would have missed out Sewell? Sammy? Lewis?

 

[Mississippi]

i was going to add the 3 premiership to the post so you couldnt use that cheap point, yes we succeeded because the club made many great decisions, but this was not one of them, this was a mistake, but in the greater scheme of things it didnt cost us much, a good player isnt worth premierships, but to think our club doesnt make mistakes and that if we make enough wont hurt us is delusional, calling them out for mistakes will hopefully lower the amount they make and therefore lead to more success hopefully, also to keep complacency at bay, i see keeping them honest as more valuable than cheerleading tbh, but different strokes for different folks.

all i remember is in 2009 i was a fan of Josh Kennedy i personally thought he was tracking to be a very good player, so when we traded him i was disappointed, if you cant except it was a mistake then fine, but from my pov it was AND he came from the most influential family from the family club and that doubly hurt, then he went on to play amazing footy for over a decade at a rival so triply devestating for us, then helping Sydney win 2012 which wouldnt have happened without him quadruple upsetting.

Spot on - it was a mistake to let Kennedy go, but that’s said with the benefit of hindsight.

Hindsight’s a wonderful thing.
With the benefit of hindsight there’s absolutely no way in the world the Hawk braintrust would have let Kennedy go. In fact he’d probably be our caplain now.

And in hindsight we‘d never have drafted Dowler or Thorp.
Imagine who we’d have taken with those picks - with hindsight.

But as much as I hated seeing the 3rd generation Kennedy go, I’m happy to compromise with the 3-peat.

 

[Dewnior]

And in hindsight we‘d never have drafted Dowler or Thorp.
Imagine who we’d have taken with those picks - with hindsight.

Clark & Reiwoldt?

 

[Mississippi]

Clark & Reiwoldt?

Instead of Dowler - Ryder, Hurn, Shaun Higgins
Instead of Thorp - Jack Riewoldt, or (I hate to say it) Selwood, taken with the pick after Dowler

 

[Dewnior]

Instead of Dowler - Ryder, Hurn, Shaun Higgins
Instead of Thorp - Jack Riewoldt, or (I hate to say it) Selwood, taken with the pick after Dowler

I only looked at the talls that went after our pick given that's what we went for. It was well known the club would not have taken Ryder as they didn't think Buddy and Ryder would work in the forward line.

 

[Furn2]

Kennedy was still a could go either way prospect when he left, hence the 1 year deal. Although most hawks fans were pretty bullish on him. Tom was already A-grade and has now gone past anything JK has done.