Game Day Hawthorn v Bulldogs, 7.50pm @ MCG

[The Kipster]

mcevoy cegs fitz all ave under 1mark inside 50 all yr..

I call BS..........

 

[Syphoncom]

Hawthorn v Western Bulldogs

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To quote a certain McGuire, “what a big week it's been in football”. Although Geelong and Hawthorn's respective ladder placement ensured four weeks of Melbourne football, few expected an all-Victorian header in the first semi-final of week 2. A massive upset travelling over West, the Western Bulldogs more than took the challenge to the heavily favoured Eagles side. Their incredible win and the Hawks agonisingly close defeat sets the stage for a brilliant Friday night at the 'G.

When & Where?

Semi Final 1, 7:50 PM FRIDAY, SEPTEMBER 16, 2016 at the MCG

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Following their 'away' game against Geelong last Friday night, it's déjà vu for Hawthorn, taking on the Bulldogs at the home of AFL. Unlike the situation last week, the Bulldogs really do suffer a minor disadvantage, playing the majority of their games at Etihad. With their poor form on the road – especially interstate – I was eager to point this out against the Eagles last week. To say it didn't matter would be understatement.

Statistically the Hawks have the edge, yet with five grand final appearances in the previous eight years, it isn't personal. On current form the Bulldogs have the ability to challenge the Hawks, and Friday night we see which team gets the opportunity to travel north, to take on GWS on their home turf.

How will it happen?

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In shades of last week, the Friday night encounter is an interesting match-up. A rematch of the game that saw Bob Murphy sidelined for the year with an ACL, their only clash this year saw a 3 point victory for the Hawks. Since that round 3 encounter, both teams have enjoyed successful seasons.

Like Geelong before them, the Bulldogs primary focus is manic pressure. Coach Luke Beveridge emphasised its importance in September, "finals are normally won with the intensity, the grunt, the appetite for the contest and the courage side of it”. After their win against the Eagles, few would deny the hard working Dogs personify the sentiment. They will tackle hard, force a tight contest and attempt to coerce Hawthorn into error. Yet like Geelong last week, the Bulldogs will know contested possession alone isn't enough against this team.

Well documented, Hawthorn's dominance despite being consistently beaten in contested football seems an anomaly. Trailing 118 to 170 against the Cats, statistically this sounds the death knell for most teams. However in typical Hawks fashion, their control of the ball when they do have it allows for efficiency moving forward. Nearly fifty more marks and nine inside-50's illustrates their game plan perfectly.

Hawthorn will lose possession in close without panic; their ability to set-up behind the ball and counter-attack is legendary. While the Dogs were able to get over the back of West Coast last week, the Hawthorn defenders won't make that mistake. Often sacrificing numbers around the ball, where the Bulldogs get loose on the break, expect tougher entries into the forward-50 this time.

Whilst it was the Hawthorn mid-fielders who shouldered the heaviest load last week, the Dogs don't possess a duo as dangerous as the Cats. Rather it is their quick movement forward that will pressure the defenders more this week than any other. This week, Hawthorn look to Birchall, Gibson and Duryea to keep the kennel quiet.

Knowing the Hawthorn midfield stars will always be a challenge, for the Bulldogs it is a reversal. Daniel, Dalhaus, and Boyd will need to be at their best to ensure they're a chance to cause yet another big upset.

What will happen?

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As of writing, the odds are:

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The punters have paid attention to the drubbing the Bulldogs gave the Eagles last week, bringing their head-to-head price down to around $2.50. Coming off a trip to the other side of the country, such a short price seems unreasonable, in fact giving Hawthorn seemingly 'long' odds in their position.

Last time they met:

This time they meet:​

Almost everyone got it wrong last week; the Bulldogs are a September threat. Whether it was the travel west, the injury cloud they were under, or the question over their readiness in finals, there were reasons left, right and centre as to why they would stumble. They didn't.

Indeed the manner in which they dominated a difficult first-up final made for fantastic viewing. Still every year, under the current finals format, a winner plays a loser in week 2 of the final series. Perhaps an underdog with a fairytale victory, or a stumbling Grand Final favourite, sentimental favouritism seems to override a year's worth of work. Concessions must be made – this year has been the closest in recent memory – yet still there is a difference between the up and coming Bulldogs and perennial stalwarts Hawthorn.

For many reasons neutral fans would like to see another upset; a Bulldogs triumph would guarantee a Grand Final birth for at least one team not seen this century. And though it would be one for the heart, the head must choose Hawthorn. Beaten by just two points by arguably the best team this year, they couldn't have come closer to securing a sixth consecutive preliminary final.

Only five times in sixteen years has a team been eliminated from the finals in straight sets. Three times in the previous two years, it has become almost common and may well happen again this year. Unfortunately for Dogs fans, it's more likely Adelaide that will manage it.

The Bullies won't go down easily, but there's still fight in the brown and gold dog on their way to immortality.

Hawthorn by 27 points.

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Another write-up this week, maybe I'll fair better having tipped you boys! . Good luck tonight guys.

 

[Thaihawk]

I just got this image of Fitzpatrick tunnel balling Caleb Daniel through the big sticks

Did you get this idea from Rushed Behind, as when I read it, I felt sure he would have been the poster. Sorry Denwoir.

 

[Chubberson]

I fear for those of you getting your hopes up about how much of an impact Hartung will make tonight.

You dont want to look like a chicken on the big stage and id say he'll be under instruction to just back back himself in and run like a man posessed. He can do it.

 

[TazHawk15]

Another long Friday coming up

You are not wrong.

I am hiding in a dark corner at work hoping like hell no one sees me, and its not even 1 o'clock yet.

 

[Gralin]

I call BS..........

If the comment was meant to be average marks inside 50 then it looks like this

BB 22 games 20 marks average of 0.9 marks inside 50 per game
Cegs 19 games 14 marks average of 0.73 marks inside 50 per game
Fitz 2 games 2 marks average of 1 mark inside 50 per game

So technically incorrect as Fizt is averaging 1 mark inside 50 per game

 

[badgrill]

This is definitely a game that could be a shootout (a bit like the Crows v Doggies in last years Elimination Final) with quick free flowing footy.

That said, the Dogs have definitely tightened up their defensive side and it could be an arm wrestle with periods of the game breaking open - a bit like last week against the Cats. If this happens we need to take advantage and convert wherever we can. They are quick - no doubt about that and if we turn it over they will burn us. Their ball use is much better than the Cats as well.

I agree with some others here that the 'G will slow them down a bit with the wide flanks (but only just). For the first time ever I am putting my neck out - Hawks by 17 pts.

Liking your Avatar very much

 

[mikeder]

Need to make Suckling and Johannisen accountable in the forward line.

If Suckers keeps up his usual form of kicking/passing to the opposition that will be good enough for us.

 

[maddog37]

If Suckers keeps up his usual form of kicking/passing to the opposition that will be good enough for us.

He is fun to watch. Strange player.

 

[Hawker1167]

wow just looked at the Hawthorn site and look whose back

 

[RIOLINWITPUNCHS]

I'm tipping Rioli to go bananas tonight.

Despite kicking 2 goals last week i felt he didn't influence the game as much as he usually would from 9 disposals.

Solemlnly has 2 quiet games in a row.

 

[RIOLINWITPUNCHS]

wow just looked at the Hawthorn site and look whose back

View attachment 289185

Decent stuff up that.

 

[Hawker1167]

Decent stuff up that.

ahhhh he looks better in the Brown and Gold

 

[Qlder_19]

Decent stuff up that.

I get a swisse ad on either side , ??? or blank

 

[RIOLINWITPUNCHS]

ahhhh he looks better in the Brown and Gold

Without doubt.

I still have the school of thought he choose the Swans over the Giants to get away with the blood rule more

 

[CD Xbow]

Decent stuff up that.

the graphic could be coming out of your browsers cache. Every time some post one of these background graphics with the budster, I jump over and have a look, and I don't see it.

 

[RIOLINWITPUNCHS]

the graphic could be coming out of your browsers cache. Every time some post one of these background graphics with the budster, I jump over and have a look, and I don't see it.

I was just viewing the screenshot from hawker1167.

P.S. No idea what a browsers cache is. Is it like an A hole for computers?

 

[Pigdog]

One interesting stat is that the doggies have increased there scoring goals average in the past 3-4 games to 13-15 goals per game. We have also been averaging 13 -15 goals per game.

Throughout the season the doggies have only kicked over 100 points once whereas we have done it 6 times.

The doggies usually score 8-10 per game,

I think the key to winning this game is to restrict the doggies to kick around 8-9 goals, we should have enough fire power to kick more than 10 goals and win this game.

Go hawks,

Did you make this stuff up?

Whilst we aren't a high scoring team we have kicked 100+ points 6 times this year and 90-99 on 5 occassions... You guys have kicked 100+ 8 times.

Our average score is 86, so we usually score 12-13 goals per game.

 

[CD Xbow]

I was just viewing the screenshot from hawker1167.

P.S. No idea what a browsers cache is. Is it like an A hole for computers?

Depends, things go in and out repeatedly, and some are larger than others. Does that fit?

 

[Hawker1167]

the graphic could be coming out of your browsers cache. Every time some post one of these background graphics with the budster, I jump over and have a look, and I don't see it.

wow you lost me - but just checked again and all back to normal - thought i had gone back in time

anyway mind back on the job " Go Hawks" i cannot believe how slow the arvo is going

 

[threesixpio]

H2f was heeney2franklin before he jumped ship

O'Rourke awakens is to blame for JOR after the return of the Jedi disaster

SLB used to be bradhill4eva I s**t you not

Oi!

 

[threesixpio]

Well if he doesn't 'awake' soon, he may be looking for another change soon. Having said that, I have a feeling 2017 could be his year, and become a part of the best midields in the comp.

And I will claim credit too

 

[Jones Boy]

Liking your Avatar very much

Hodgey showing us the direction to the promised land! Cheers

 

[PhatBoy]

I'll probably get told to f*** off or something for posting this here but anyway.

Regarding tonight, there is no doubt that I desperately want the Dogs to win. I hate the Hawks, I want their season to end, and I want their Era to end.

However.

Probably only at the end of last Friday night I came to the sickening realization that I have an incredible amount of respect for them. What they've achieved has been miraculous.

When we won our 3rd flag I thought I would have to wait decades maybe to see a team at a similar level. I respectfully still consider the cats of 07-11 as the best football outfit I've seen but they never managed what your blokes did in terms of achievement.

If, and it is still a big if, you lose tonight, and IF this does somehow finally bring your run to an end, then kudos to the team and it's fans. It has been a mighty effort and by going as close as you did last Friday, it highlighted again that if you do miss out on 4 in a row, it won't be through lack of effort.

Be proud. (As if you f***ers aren't already)

 

[OhhhhhCyril]

I'am gonna have my own March to the G .... Like I do every week