How do Collingwood keep doing it?

[PerthBoy86]

I know this has been asked a million times, but would be interesting to get into a bit more detail of the how. Like, they've come back from a decent so many times in the past 12 plus months it's definitely no coincidence. Much has been said about how McRae has instilled positivity, their fitness etc, but I think it has to do with energy management, as they always have that one final burst in the last and dominate teams. So I think while other teams are going at 100% the first 3 quarters they're at 80-90%...and then 110% in the last. Which is partly why they fall behind in the first place. I am convinced McRae and the other coaching staff almost prefer to be behind, having that psychological edge now lol.

Like its unprecedented for a team to come back from like 20+ that many times. To the point where if they're 20-30 down at 3qt you expect them to win.

 

[g_TRAIN]

Don't know but they have done it enough to prove its no fluke

 

[PenfoldsFan]

Happening far too frequently not to be a tactic.

It appears to me as though they're happy to be around 5 goals down around 3/4 time and force the opposition to try and defend their lead rather than play the style thats put them 5 goals up and the oppo accommodate them.
Once they get that initial run on, the trend they've created in doing so increases the anxiety in the oppo players and they begin fumbling which brings about turnover and the pressure just builds.

Teams need to do what we did against the Saints last week, stay a goal and a bit infront and keep both sides on edge.

 

[piesaregreat]

As a fan its stressful but great
Not convinced it will be effective in finals
Although Hawthorn, under Clarkson,used to practice how to win close games in finals and they did extremely well

 

[StonesThrow]

Happening far too frequently not to be a tactic.

It appears to me as though they're happy to be around 5 goals down around 3/4 time and force the opposition to try and defend their lead rather than play the style thats put them 5 goals up and the oppo accommodate them.
Once they get that initial run on, the trend they've created in doing so increases the anxiety in the oppo players and they begin fumbling which brings about turnover and the pressure just builds.

Teams need to do what we did against the Saints last week, stay a goal and a bit infront and keep both sides on edge.

You really think they plan do be substantially down at 3qtr time?

 

[Corn Cobbers]

Happening far too frequently not to be a tactic.

It appears to me as though they're happy to be around 5 goals down around 3/4 time and force the opposition to try and defend their lead rather than play the style thats put them 5 goals up and the oppo accommodate them.
Once they get that initial run on, the trend they've created in doing so increases the anxiety in the oppo players and they begin fumbling which brings about turnover and the pressure just builds.

Teams need to do what we did against the Saints last week, stay a goal and a bit infront and keep both sides on edge.

Bizarre tactic!

I think they just won a few close ones mid last year and it snowballed from there. The players are super confident they can execute in the last quarter, while the opposition crap themselves because they know what's coming.

It won't last forever and as we saw last year it wasn't effective in the finals.

 

[Jimmy Yamazaki]

They up the pressure levels, most games they've come back in they have had elite or near elite pressure levels for just the 4th qtr. Most teams have dropped their pressure rating at this point since they can't sustain it for an entire game but Pies switch theirs on.

It's probably why they fall so far behind in the first place, because they aren't apply as much pressure in the early parts of the game when the opposition is and wait for them to tire and go hard then.

 

[Franc de Borges]

They keep their composure under pressure because they have the confidence - backed up by results - that their system will win out. They repeatedly get confirmation that this confidence is justified. Their game plan also allows them the freedom to throw caution to the wind.

The element of luck is in not being put away by the opposition when the game could easily be broken open. It's happened several times now and I very much doubt that 'falling behind and hoping they miss' is part of the game plan. It's a phenomena that I can't see working in finals.

 

[My Tilly]

I think it all stems from the 2018-2019 seasons.
So incredibly close in both years and while they had poorer years when covid 19 took over the globe, you can see it has created a steely resolve.
Replacing Buckley was the final piece of the puzzle as he could only take them so far.

I wonder if they still have the same drive to keep this going if they win the flag this year.
Some clubs come agonizingly close, finish second and then drift away into obscurity.

 

[#23 Hill]

Rope a dope.

 

[btdg]

I think there are two elements.

The first is 4th quarter comebacks. They seem to have adopted a style that is 'Richmond 2017, but only in the 4th quarter'. It allows them to keep energy in reserve and play that scrambling, tough to deal with pressure when the other team is tired. This explains the comebacks.

Winning close games is a different matter. I think this is mostly luck. A few shots here, misses there, and that 11-3 record or whatever gets closer to 7-7. Last year vs Essendon Harry Jones could have ice the game from 20m out directly in front. Jack Silvagni

1

Jack Silvagni

Age

26

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194cm

Wt

92kg

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Fwd

Career

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Last 5

D

11.0

3star

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7.1

3star

HB

3.8

3star

M

3.8

4star

T

2.9

4star

G

0.7

4star

D

5.3

1star

K

4.0

1star

HB

1.3

1star

M

1.7

2star

T

0.7

1star

G

0.7

4star

D

9.2

3star

K

6.2

3star

HB

3.0

3star

M

3.4

4star

T

2.8

5star

G

0.8

4star

had a snap for Carlton that missed. Even round 23, Charlie Curnow

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Charlie Curnow

Age

27

Ht

194cm

Wt

94kg

Pos.

Fwd

Career

Season

Last 5

D

13.3

3star

K

9.7

4star

HB

3.6

3star

M

5.3

5star

T

2.2

4star

G

1.3

5star

No current season stats available

D

10.8

3star

K

6.4

3star

HB

4.4

4star

M

3.2

4star

T

1.6

4star

G

0.8

4star

missed a sitter that also probably iced the game. I think we will see this normalise over time.

But... put the first aspect together with the second and it starts to become a pretty imposing record. In my view, its the start of the last quarter that is the issue, not the end - that seems to be where it is in other team's heads. Essendon just straight up panicked and looked shellshocked 2 minutes in and it was a foregone conclusion from there.

I still have my doubts about how sustainably you can play with a strategy that also boils down to 'concede a 4 goal deficit then come back'. Seems more likely to work in Melbourne, in regular season, against crappy teams and less effective at the pointy end, as exhibited last year in finals. How scared are Melbourne going to be? Or Geelong? Or Brisbane? I guess that is the million dollar question we wait all year to see

 

[Bianconeri]

I still have my doubts about how sustainably you can play with a strategy that also boils down to 'concede a 4 goal deficit then come back'. Seems more likely to work in Melbourne, in regular season, against crappy teams and less effective at the pointy end, as exhibited last year in finals. How scared are Melbourne going to be? Or Geelong? Or Brisbane? I guess that is the million dollar question we wait all year to see

As we saw at the start of season with a healthy side we’re quite capable of dominating teams in the first three quarters. Once our rucks come back the close game will be less.

 

[Milanista28]

Their opposition pay them too much respect and believe the hype and play very safe and defensive. Adelaide went wide every time they could to defend but all it did was give Collingwood an even chance to win the ball back. I think you need to attack them just as hard to break through.

 

[btdg]

As we saw at the start of season with a healthy side we’re quite capable of dominating teams in the first three quarters. Once our rucks come back the close game will be less.

That's certainly the upside position for Collingwood. You appear to be generally better across the field this year than last. Even better than miraculous comebacks and last minute wins would be starting ahead and powering clear in the final quarter.

That said, the start of the season went:

• Win against Geelong after trailing at 3/4 time
• Demolition of Port
• Steady win against Richmond, who haven't won a game since copping a few injuries in rounds 2/3
• Loss to Brisbane
• Win against St Kilda after being roughly even at 3/4 time
• Win against Essendon after being 4 goals behind at 3/4 time
• Win against Adelaide after being 3 goals behind at 3/4 time

It's only really the Port game where you have dominated teams early. St Kilda is probably the model you want against good teams (narrow lead at 3/4 time that gets stretched in the last quarter to a comfortable win).

I'd also not count on the cavalry arriving. I reckon a pretty good predictor for how many injuries you'll have in a month's time is how many you have now. Players come back, others get injured, and around we go in circles. (I say that as a Carlton support who has seen about 7 straight seasons dissolve in a pool of injuries, and spent a lot of time playing the 'just wait until X comes back...' game)

 

[PieLebo87]

I wonder if they still have the same drive to keep this going if they win the flag this year.
Some clubs come agonizingly close, finish second and then drift away into obscurity.

In answer to your question - extremely unlikely. The style of play relies on players performing a role, and exerting unbelievable effort to deliver on a result. Once they’ve reached the pinnacle and won a flag, it’s only natural for some complacency to creep in. This is compounded by the likely vacuum in leadership which has driven this culture.

If Collingwood was able to win a flag this year, it’ll take Fly a new game plan and the evolution of the next tier, around Nick Daicos, to find a new winning formula. If Fly somehow manages to pull off multiple flags over a course of years, he’ll go down as an absolute legend to have pulled it off as it would’ve effectively been via two different styles of lists/game plans.

 

[Lsta062]

McRae coached Richmond’s VFL side from 2016-2020. Actually, forget about 2020 because that was the COVID year. 2016-2019. We were pretty bad in close games from 2016-2018 just like our senior side, but then something changed in our VFL Premiership year in 2019. We went 6-0 in games decided by 12 points or less and 10-0 in games decided by 17 points or less. This included the QF against Essendon VFL by 2 points and then the GF against Williamstown by 3 points.

Seems like McRae found a way to instil belief in his side during close games and took it with him to Collingwood. He clearly didn’t let us in on whatever he found that season though lol. Point is, McRae has done this before. I recognised this style of his the moment Collingwood started doing this in 2022.

 

[PieLebo87]

That's certainly the upside position for Collingwood. You appear to be generally better across the field this year than last. Even better than miraculous comebacks and last minute wins would be starting ahead and powering clear in the final quarter.

That said, the start of the season went:

• Win against Geelong after trailing at 3/4 time
• Demolition of Port
• Steady win against Richmond, who haven't won a game since copping a few injuries in rounds 2/3
• Loss to Brisbane
• Win against St Kilda after being roughly even at 3/4 time
• Win against Essendon after being 4 goals behind at 3/4 time
• Win against Adelaide after being 3 goals behind at 3/4 time

It's only really the Port game where you have dominated teams early. St Kilda is probably the model you want against good teams (narrow lead at 3/4 time that gets stretched in the last quarter to a comfortable win).

I disagree. I definitely don’t want the Port type of victories this early in the season. I’m extremely content with where Collingwood is at right now. Churning out Ws and propelling themselves into a position to challenge for top 4 at the right stage of the season. Winning pretty or ugly is irrelevant right now. Carlton last year is a prime example of having a spectacular start and it just going pear shaped at the wrong time.

I'd also not count on the cavalry arriving. I reckon a pretty good predictor for how many injuries you'll have in a month's time is how many you have now. Players come back, others get injured, and around we go in circles. (I say that as a Carlton support who has seen about 7 straight seasons dissolve in a pool of injuries, and spent a lot of time playing the 'just wait until X comes back...' game)

It’s not so much the cavalry Collingwood is waiting on, it’s the reinforcements for particular roles/positions.

We need reinforcements for -

Ruck: Cameron, Cox, Begg
KPD: Howe, Frampton (needed in ruck), Dean

Last week we had Murphy out too, which left Moore as the only recognised KPD, this contributed towards effectively 8 of Essendon’s 11 goals coming from KPFs/Rucks/188cm+ players.

It’s not about Murphy or Howe, it’s about having a player to perform the role of KPD.

Similarly for the ruck - we just need a body that can stand up and provide more competition against the opposition ruckmen.

I think the Pies are tracking quite well for where they’re currently at on the ladder despite their form/performance.

 

[Bianconeri]

That's certainly the upside position for Collingwood. You appear to be generally better across the field this year than last. Even better than miraculous comebacks and last minute wins would be starting ahead and powering clear in the final quarter.

That said, the start of the season went:

• Win against Geelong after trailing at 3/4 time
• Demolition of Port
• Steady win against Richmond, who haven't won a game since copping a few injuries in rounds 2/3
• Loss to Brisbane
• Win against St Kilda after being roughly even at 3/4 time
• Win against Essendon after being 4 goals behind at 3/4 time
• Win against Adelaide after being 3 goals behind at 3/4 time

It's only really the Port game where you have dominated teams early. St Kilda is probably the model you want against good teams (narrow lead at 3/4 time that gets stretched in the last quarter to a comfortable win).

I'd also not count on the cavalry arriving. I reckon a pretty good predictor for how many injuries you'll have in a month's time is how many you have now. Players come back, others get injured, and around we go in circles. (I say that as a Carlton support who has seen about 7 straight seasons dissolve in a pool of injuries, and spent a lot of time playing the 'just wait until X comes back...' game)

Geelong we were only 1 goal down at 3 quarter time and blew them away in the last as opposed to 4 and winning close. Port we dominated and Richmond was a steady win but we were infront most of the game comfortably.

Since then we haven’t had a proper ruckman. We’ll get more injuries but as long as they’re not kpp they’re coverable.

 

[Drought Break]

As many posters said last year it’s all down to luck winning all those close games.

This luck according to BF experts was not supposed to continue this year and the pies would not make the 8

Quite extraordinary that this luck is continuing

 

[HavUEvaSeenTheRain]

As many posters said last year it’s all down to luck winning all those close games.

This luck according to BF experts was not supposed to continue this year and the pies would not make the 8

Quite extraordinary that this luck is continuing

There’s always an element of luck in close games. An umpire or opposition player making a single mistake can change the result and that’s out of Collingwood control. Collingwood are obviously mentally stronger then the vast majority of sides though, while other sides panic they flourish

 

[Fadge]

As many posters said last year it’s all down to luck winning all those close games.

This luck according to BF experts was not supposed to continue this year and the pies would not make the 8

Quite extraordinary that this luck is continuing

It wasn't just the BF experts predicting our demise, I lost count of the number of articles in the media predicting the same thing.

The same 'experts' who had Richmond third favourites for the flag, but are now saying Hardwick should call it a day and it was a mistake bringing in Taranto and Hopper...

 

[Bungeye]

These 4th quarter comebacks have been happening for a while now. You can trace it back to the Preliminary final against GWS in 2019. Even in Buckleys final year, they had multiple 4th quarter comebacks that ultimately fell short. They're now winning these games-- That's the big difference!

So credit must also go to the players.

 

[VinnieB]

That's certainly the upside position for Collingwood. You appear to be generally better across the field this year than last. Even better than miraculous comebacks and last minute wins would be starting ahead and powering clear in the final quarter.

That said, the start of the season went:

• Win against Geelong after trailing at 3/4 time
• Demolition of Port
• Steady win against Richmond, who haven't won a game since copping a few injuries in rounds 2/3
• Loss to Brisbane
• Win against St Kilda after being roughly even at 3/4 time
• Win against Essendon after being 4 goals behind at 3/4 time
• Win against Adelaide after being 3 goals behind at 3/4 time

It's only really the Port game where you have dominated teams early. St Kilda is probably the model you want against good teams (narrow lead at 3/4 time that gets stretched in the last quarter to a comfortable win).

I'd also not count on the cavalry arriving. I reckon a pretty good predictor for how many injuries you'll have in a month's time is how many you have now. Players come back, others get injured, and around we go in circles. (I say that as a Carlton support who has seen about 7 straight seasons dissolve in a pool of injuries, and spent a lot of time playing the 'just wait until X comes back...' game)

We have had long term injuries in some very important player positions (ruck) to fill (Cameron and Cox), and then guys like Howe and Lipinski. I think non-Collingwood people don’t realise how great Lipinski was for us last season.

In addition to those above, we have had guys like Murphy, Adams, Pendlebury, JDG, McStay all missing various games over the past few weeks.

We just seem to have more depth and kids who have been able to come in and continue.

As tot he comebacks? Well, when you do it often enough, you have confidence you can always win it. Being 28 points down against Essendon in the last, when Frampton kicked the 1st goal, Moore came streaming down from the backline with the guys all fired up. They just think they can win. And they play such an attacking, hunting style that puts a lot of pressure on the opposition and helps them to score quickly.

Also, maybe a special mention to the conditioning team.

 

[Warhorse]

League best fitness. Was really only Geelong that was able to put them to the sword in close games

 

[HairyO]

Fitness, and confidence in knowing if they keep pushing the other team will s**t the bed. There is simply no way they should have won the games they have won, had their opponents not started making mistakes.