Is the top 4 set?

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Tom14

Norm Smith Medallist
Oct 13, 2015
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Probably narrows to the current top 7 (8+ wins) with Tigers maybe an outside chance. Out of top 7 teams playing each other, Saints (7/11 with 2 interstate + 1 in Geelong) and Lions (6/11 with 3 interstate) stand out as having really tough runs home - I'd expect both to slide.

Dees have probably the next toughest with 5/10 remaining against the top 7 (2 interstate + 1 in Geelong) but I'd still expect them to hold first.

Cats have by far the easiest run home (no remaining interstate matches against top 7 teams and 3/10), so expecting them to solidify top 4 and come home strong.

I'd go:
1. Demons (17 wins)
2. Cats (16 wins)
3. Dockers (15 wins)
4. Lions (15 wins)

then

5. Swans (15 wins)
6. Blues (15 wins)
7. Tigers (14 wins)
8. Saints (14 wins)

Realise this was written pre-last night but I'd be surprised if Brisbane finished on 15 wins. 9 games left, 5 at home with 10 wins banked - 4 home wins and 2 away wins gets to 16 pretty comfortably. We've lost once at the gabba in the home and away season in the last 30+ games and I don't see that changing.
 
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Freomaniac

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May 3, 2007
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Gotta say it's great to have Frematle, St. Kilda & Carlton at 3, 4 & 5 on the ladder respectively at the mid-point of the season. Not just because my team is doing well at the moment, but good to see teams doing well that have all been trash for the last decade (Freo slightly less - around 7 years).

Even Melbourne & Brisbane who have been up for a few years, had also been rubbish for the preceding 15 years. Good to see a bit of success spread around, after the Hawthorn-Geelong-Sydney domination from 2005-2015.
Well it shows you how crazy the AFL system is.

I have said this. It's going to be common that teams will spend 5 or 6 in a row not making finals.

Looking at some teams.

Melbourne spent 2007-17 not playing finals.

Brisbane spent 2010-18 not playing finals.

Carlton spent 2014-21 not playing finals.

Saints spent 2011-18 not playing finals.

Freo spent 2016-21 not playing finals.

Melbourne, Brisbane, Carlton, saints and Freo are all in the top 8 or top 6.

Again..... Crazy stuff.
 

Freomaniac

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The Bulldogs and Tigers are 2 wins shy of Freo (3rd), Saints (4th) and Blues (5th)
If they go 9-2 over the second half of the season and the others go 7-4, then they'll be in the top four
They might even go 8-3 and the others 6-5

Like I said in my previous post, I don't understand why people get a hard-on for "locking in" the top 4 & top 8 after only 50% of the season has been completed. Why rule out the possibilities? What is there to be gained by doing that?

In 2018, Hawthorn was in 10th place after Round 11 and ended up finishing in 4th place. They weren't even a very good team. They got bundled out in straight sets. Yet they were still able to leapfrog 6 teams and improve from 10th to 4th in the run home.


Rd 11, 2018
1... WCE.. 10-1... 133.5%
2... Rich.... 9-2... 140.5%
3... Melb... 8-3.... 140.9%
4... Syd.... 8-3.... 118.6%
5... Geel... 7-4.... 128.6%
6... N.M.... 7-4.... 125.1%
7... Coll ....7-4.... 115.7%
8... Port.... 6-4
9... Adel.... 6-5
10. Haw.... 6-5.... 104.8%
11. GWS... 5-5-1

Rd 23, 2018
1... Rich... 18-4
2... WCE.. 16-6
3... Coll... 15-7
4... Haw... 15-7
5... Melb.. 14-8
6... Syd... 14-8
7... GWS.. 13-8-1
8... Geel... 13-9
9... N.M... 12-10
10. Port... 12-10
12. Adel... 12-10
Bloody hell that 2018 ladder is mental.

Hawks grinded out a top 4 spot. Your missing out that Essendon got 11 on 12 wins too.

But yeah crows went from top and grand final with 15 wins and a draw in 2017. Then they got 12th with 12 wins.

Ladder wise it was a massive drop. But 3 wins shouldn't be a massive difference.

There has been sides that have got 12-14 wins and finals after getting 9-10 wins in the previous year
 

Freomaniac

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Not a chance - just your innate Demons pessimism shining through there. You'll romp home Top 4 and 90% likely finish Top 2. The losses come at the perfect time, if that's possible. You'll take care of the Pies next weekend on Queens B'day before a chance for a little re-set for after the bye.

Sydney and Freo were both excellent but clearly playing well beyond themselves. I recognise this phenomenon well, as the Tigers opponents have regularly treated their matchup with us as a H&A "final" over the last 5 years. Similarly, it was usually non-Vic clubs, namely the two Adelaide teams, that tended to turn up against us, amongst others. Looks fantastic on the day/night, but not sustainable.

As for the Bulldogs beating you atm? Not a hope in hell - their forward line is almost totally dysfunctional and your rebounding defence would dine out on their turnovers.

Keep the faith Dees man.
I agree with your view on Freo.

The Dockers have been playing beyond the call of duty.

I won't be upset if they miss out on top 4 this season. Not many Freo fans predicted that.

Hell start of the season, most of the Dockers fans would of been happy getting 7th or 8th, possibly a home final with 6th.

I would be happy if Freo get 5th or 6th and get a home final win
 

Phipppppa

Club Legend
Jan 8, 2022
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Well it shows you how crazy the AFL system is.

I have said this. It's going to be common that teams will spend 5 or 6 in a row not making finals.

Looking at some teams.

Melbourne spent 2007-17 not playing finals.

Brisbane spent 2010-18 not playing finals.

Carlton spent 2014-21 not playing finals.

Saints spent 2011-18 not playing finals.

Freo spent 2016-21 not playing finals.

Melbourne, Brisbane, Carlton, saints and Freo are all in the top 8 or top 6.

Again..... Crazy stuff.

And then there’s us.
 

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Cobbler

Norm Smith Medallist
Jul 7, 2014
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I agree with your view on Freo.

The Dockers have been playing beyond the call of duty.

I won't be upset if they miss out on top 4 this season. Not many Freo fans predicted that.

Hell start of the season, most of the Dockers fans would of been happy getting 7th or 8th, possibly a home final with 6th.

I would be happy if Freo get 5th or 6th and get a home final win

Why would you be happy with that considering our position now?

That’s like saying ‘I’ll be happy if we finish off the season worse then how we started’

Grow a pair and aim for top 4.
 

Freomaniac

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Why would you be happy with that considering our position now?

That’s like saying ‘I’ll be happy if we finish off the season worse then how we started’

Grow a pair and aim for top 4.
Just a bit nervous. I would hate to finish top 4 and go out on straight sets like we did in 2014.

I won't be upset getting 5th or 6th and get a home finals win
 

bungalow_bill

Norm Smith Medallist
Dec 11, 2010
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The salt is delicious.

You can really..

Taste_the_Salt_by_Daryl_Braithwaite.jpg
 

chunkylover53

Norm Smith Medallist
Aug 13, 2008
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Classic 50/50 game imo, we are favourites at 1.86 atm

I think that's accurate. Our midfield is stronger, but it's kinda wasted with our ruck stocks at the moment. De Koning & Silvagni hardly give us first use - as it showed on the weekend when Essendon smashed us in the clearances.

Richmond will narrowly win imo.
 

Falcon3518

Club Legend
Mar 13, 2022
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Anybody else reckon the Dees will finish 3rd or 4th and play Freo or Lions away? If this happens I can see them losing the QF and maybe go out in straight sets which would be a laugh. They have the hardest run home, I think it’s like 7 top 8 sides left to play or something.
 

Sky

Prince Pretty
Feb 14, 2021
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Anybody else reckon the Dees will finish 3rd or 4th and play Freo or Lions away? If this happens I can see them losing the QF and maybe go out in straight sets which would be a laugh. They have the hardest run home, I think it’s like 7 top 8 sides left to play or something.
I’m more curious if you can kick out someone like St Kilda
 

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