Is the top 4 set?

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Blue1980

Brownlow Medallist
Jun 9, 2011
16,256
19,195
Melbourne
AFL Club
Carlton
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Dees look vulnerable. Finally playing some quality teams and getting shown up. Could slide to fifth. Their extremely healthy list is keeping them up.

I still struggle to see them winning less than 16, and with a good percentage should be enough for top 4.

Most likely they still win 17-18.
 

RUNVS

Hall of Famer
Feb 28, 2007
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I think Melbourne are very safe in the top 4 and Brisbane are reasonably safe too but 3rd and 4th are very much up for grabs at this stage. There are 5 teams who could all realistically think they are within a shot of getting those spots on the ladder.
 

danster168

Premiership Player
Apr 29, 2016
3,391
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I think Melbourne are very safe in the top 4 and Brisbane are reasonably safe too but 3rd and 4th are very much up for grabs at this stage. There are 5 teams who could all realistically think they are within a shot of getting those spots on the ladder.
Nah we won't make top 4. We've got Coll, Carlton, Brisbane (x2), Geelong (GMHBA) and Frem (WA). That's 8 losses for the year. Not to mention the dogs who would beat us at the moment.
 

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GhostofJimJess

Brownlow Medallist
Jan 14, 2002
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Nah we won't make top 4. We've got Coll, Carlton, Brisbane (x2), Geelong (GMHBA) and Frem (WA). That's 8 losses for the year. Not to mention the dogs who would beat us at the moment.
Not a chance - just your innate Demons pessimism shining through there. You'll romp home Top 4 and 90% likely finish Top 2. The losses come at the perfect time, if that's possible. You'll take care of the Pies next weekend on Queens B'day before a chance for a little re-set for after the bye.

Sydney and Freo were both excellent but clearly playing well beyond themselves. I recognise this phenomenon well, as the Tigers opponents have regularly treated their matchup with us as a H&A "final" over the last 5 years. Similarly, it was usually non-Vic clubs, namely the two Adelaide teams, that tended to turn up against us, amongst others. Looks fantastic on the day/night, but not sustainable.

As for the Bulldogs beating you atm? Not a hope in hell - their forward line is almost totally dysfunctional and your rebounding defence would dine out on their turnovers.

Keep the faith Dees man.
 

Macca180

Senior List
Oct 5, 2021
233
276
Gold Coast
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Brisbane Lions
Nah we won't make top 4. We've got Coll, Carlton, Brisbane (x2), Geelong (GMHBA) and Frem (WA). That's 8 losses for the year. Not to mention the dogs who would beat us at the moment.

lol... be a disaster if dees don't make top 4... should still finish top
 

Schauermann

Norm Smith Medallist
Jun 27, 2011
6,633
4,128
Hamburg
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Fremantle
Had a look at our remaining drawn and I am not confident at all.

So @topic: No, I don't think so. Probably between the current top 6 or 7.
 

catman2006

Norm Smith Medallist
Feb 15, 2006
5,237
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Far from set, the top 4 only Melb will be guaranteed, Lions have had a very soft draw, and the next 4 weeks will see where they are at with games against top 8 opposition, when you look it's from 2nd to 6th who are in the mix and we can break that down further as some have softer draw than others.
 

Falcon3518

Club Legend
Mar 13, 2022
1,438
834
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1. Melbourne
2. Brisbane
3. Fremantle
4. Richmond/Sydney

If we beat cats and Carlton this is correct. Imo Dees finishing minor premiers is not guaranteed anymore. They have lost both times against flag contenders this year which I called because they had an easy draw barely beating bottom 6 sides and you all gave me s**t lol.
 

Phipppppa

Club Legend
Jan 8, 2022
1,536
1,519
Geelong
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Geelong
If we beat cats and Carlton this is correct. Imo Dees finishing minor premiers is not guaranteed anymore. They have lost both times against flag contenders this year which I called because they had an easy draw barely beating bottom 6 sides and you all gave me s**t lol.

I think you’ll beat us if you catch us on a bad night, the blues is 50/50. Dees should still finish on top.
 

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RUNVS

Hall of Famer
Feb 28, 2007
45,574
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Melbourne will be just fine when May comes back. They are extremely reliant on him just like Carlton are with Weitering.
These clubs might lose some games in the near future but will bounce back hard on their return.

How far off is May from coming back again?
 

JimmyMann

Goal Kicking Coach
Nov 19, 2017
246
601
Melbourne
AFL Club
St Kilda
Probably narrows to the current top 7 (8+ wins) with Tigers maybe an outside chance. Out of top 7 teams playing each other, Saints (7/11 with 2 interstate + 1 in Geelong) and Lions (6/11 with 3 interstate) stand out as having really tough runs home - I'd expect both to slide.

Dees have probably the next toughest with 5/10 remaining against the top 7 (2 interstate + 1 in Geelong) but I'd still expect them to hold first.

Cats have by far the easiest run home (no remaining interstate matches against top 7 teams and 3/10), so expecting them to solidify top 4 and come home strong.

I'd go:
1. Demons (17 wins)
2. Cats (16 wins)
3. Dockers (15 wins)
4. Lions (15 wins)

then

5. Swans (15 wins)
6. Blues (15 wins)
7. Tigers (14 wins)
8. Saints (14 wins)
 

SM

Bigfooty Legend
Aug 3, 2008
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North Shore
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Not a chance - just your innate Demons pessimism shining through there. You'll romp home Top 4 and 90% likely finish Top 2. The losses come at the perfect time, if that's possible. You'll take care of the Pies next weekend on Queens B'day before a chance for a little re-set for after the bye.

Sydney and Freo were both excellent but clearly playing well beyond themselves. I recognise this phenomenon well, as the Tigers opponents have regularly treated their matchup with us as a H&A "final" over the last 5 years. Similarly, it was usually non-Vic clubs, namely the two Adelaide teams, that tended to turn up against us, amongst others. Looks fantastic on the day/night, but not sustainable.

As for the Bulldogs beating you atm? Not a hope in hell - their forward line is almost totally dysfunctional and your rebounding defence would dine out on their turnovers.

Keep the faith Dees man.
We weren't playing "beyond ourselves". How insulting.
 

banzai

Premiership Player
Oct 14, 2003
4,229
4,089
AFL Club
Richmond
Brisbane are still well placed but they are going to have to be very good to hold onto a top 4 spot with a tough run home.
 

GhostofJimJess

Brownlow Medallist
Jan 14, 2002
10,699
9,266
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AFL Club
Richmond
We weren't playing "beyond ourselves". How insulting.
Well, my point was that your best has been very good, but before last night you've only really managed your best in 2 or 3 games. Last night the Swans were superb.
 

XhazzafootyX

Club Legend
May 24, 2011
2,774
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St Kilda
Dees, Fremantle, blues and cats are the best 4 sides at the moment. If brisbane make top4 it’ll be straight sets again.
 

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