Judd vs. Swan

[carntheroos4eva]

Swan. So consistent

beat me to it ballanFYNE.
Exactly right.

Judd's leadership skills are awesome but his skills aren't as good as when he was playing for West Coast.

So for me it would be Swan without a doubt.

 

[ballanFYNE]

what can i say..............Im more quick than Swanny consistent.

 

[Peck]

Swan is a freak in terms of his ability to get the ball. He uses it alright too, certainly not as good as Judd or Abblett, but pretty well.

That said, I'd take Judd every day of the week, can tear a game apart with 10 possesions, something just Swan can't do for mine.

Its the ability to pick up a ball in traffic then suddenly be 3 metres clear of the pack. There are very, very few players that can do this, and I don't think Swan is one of them.

 

[pieman123]

Swan is a freak in terms of his ability to get the ball. He uses it alright too, certainly not as good as Judd or Abblett, but pretty well.

That said, I'd take Judd every day of the week, can tear a game apart with 10 possesions, something just Swan can't do for mine.

Its the ability to pick up a ball in traffic then suddenly be 3 metres clear of the pack. There are very, very few players that can do this, and I don't think Swan is one of them.

yes judd does do that too bad when he kicks it he turns it over and swans kicking >>>> judds kicking

 

[danielnajdek]

I find it very difficult to rate someone who gets cheap possessions deep in the back line. Sure it may be hard running, or lack of defensive pressure from the opposition, but i just dont like it.

I look at it this way as well.

I'd pay money to go and watch Judd, i wouldn't for Swan.

Clearly have NFI about football. You can have Judd all he does is consistently turn the ball over. Good at getting it but does nothing with it. Couldn't kick that goal to get your team over the line but hey he tried his guts out that's all that matters.

 

[shaunxx]

Swan is a freak in terms of his ability to get the ball. He uses it alright too, certainly not as good as Judd or Abblett, but pretty well.

That said, I'd take Judd every day of the week, can tear a game apart with 10 possesions, something just Swan can't do for mine.

Its the ability to pick up a ball in traffic then suddenly be 3 metres clear of the pack. There are very, very few players that can do this, and I don't think Swan is one of them.

This statement is not true at all. This season Swan has had a disposal efficiency of 71.49% from 740 disposals while Judd has a disposal efficiency of 68.46% from 539 disposals. Abletts is only just above Swans on 73.38% from 680 disposals.

And just on the point of Swan getting cheap kicks in the defensive 50, this is also false. Swan has had 112 inside 50's this year to Judds 110. Which proves he can also run hard forward and drive the ball forward.

 

[blues4flag]

This statement is not true at all. This season Swan has had a disposal efficiency of 71.49% from 740 disposals while Judd has a disposal efficiency of 68.46% from 539 disposals. Abletts is only just above Swans on 73.38% from 680 disposals.

Disposal efficiency is a horrid stat.

 

[Pie 4 Life]

Swan is a freak in terms of his ability to get the ball. He uses it alright too, certainly not as good as Judd or Abblett, but pretty well.

That said, I'd take Judd every day of the week, can tear a game apart with 10 possesions, something just Swan can't do for mine.

Its the ability to pick up a ball in traffic then suddenly be 3 metres clear of the pack. There are very, very few players that can do this, and I don't think Swan is one of them.

Come again? That is one of Swan's strengths? Being able to get lost in traffic and use his short bursts of speed to get away from opponents.

 

[danielnajdek]

Disposal efficiency is a horrid stat.

How come you didn't quote the other part of his post??

Might be because it doesn't back up your argument.

 

[blues4flag]

How come you didn't quote the other part of his post??

Might be because it doesn't back up your argument.

What argument?

If you read the thread you'll notice I believe that Swan has been the season's best player. All I'm arguing is that DE is a shit stat, which it is.

 

[The Panther]

All I'm arguing is that DE is a shit stat, which it is.

Why is it a shit stat?

If you're judging the effectiveness of a midfielder, these stats give the best guide.

DE.
Scoring involvements.
Metres gained.
Rebounds defensive 50.
Entries forward 50.

 

[danielnajdek]

How about the I50 stat??

 

[blues4flag]

Why is it a shit stat?

If you're judging the effectiveness of a midfielder, these stats give the best guide.

DE.
Scoring involvements.
Metres gained.
Rebounds defensive 50.
Entries forward 50.

Are you serious?

It doesn't differentiate between a chip kick in defence and a handball in congestion. There's a reason why Blake, Gilham, Lonergan, Rutten and Grima are top 5 for the stat (of those who've played more than a few games). Has nothing to do with good disposal.

Using Judd and Swan as an example, 45% of Judd's disposals are contested, compared to 33% of Swan's. So much contested ball is always going to negatively impact his DE%.

 

[The Panther]

Are you serious?

Yes, I am serious.

You're only stating it as a "shit" stat given it suits your arguement.

It doesn't differentiate between a chip kick in defence and a handball in congestion.

If you were comparing 2 inside midfielders, your point about a handball in congestion, would have some relevance. In this case, zero relevance.

There's a reason why Blake, Gilham, Lonergan, Rutten and Grima are top 5 for the stat (of those who've played more than a few games). Has nothing to do with good disposal.

You'll need to source that one first.

You've raised 1 ruckman & 4 defenders. Irrelevant dribble.

We are comparing midfielders here.

Using Judd and Swan as an example, 45% of Judd's disposals are contested, compared to 33% of Swan's. So much contested ball is always going to negatively impact his DE%.

Again, irrelevance.

Swan plays an inside & outside game & is used to perfection regarding how much congested ball he gets.

Matty Pridis is an elite clearance player, easily, in the top 3 in the AFL. Even when he is in space, his DE is appalling.

If you look at the 5 stats I raised, it's pretty obvious who is the better & more damaging player. It's ok though, Judd was a great player around 05/06, you can blask in the glory of that over the preseason you are now enjoying.

 

[blues4flag]

Rebound 50s more important in judging a midfielder than clearances?

Funny that you claim I'm twisting facts to suit my argument when it's clear that you're doing just that. I've been arguing the point for years and most posters would agree with me. A post I made last year:

Defenders' higher efficiency is mostly due to the fact that they get the ball in space or from a mark, whereas midfielders get it in congestion.

Daniel Cross has one of the highest %DE (83%) of all mids. Yet he's regarded as a very average kick? It's high because his kick to handball ratio is something like 1:2.5. Of his 512 touches, he's only put it inside 50 on 30 occassions.

Midfielders use the ball differently depending on their ability. Those with poor disposal often dish it off by hand (less likely to be ineffective) or take a safer option - they play within their limitations. Classier/smarter midfielders tend to be more creative with the footy, attempting riskier passes because they're more likely to pull them off and generally kicking it more.

Of course, some midfielders handball a lot because they're on the bottom of the pack.

Selwood's kick:handball ratio is 1:1.25
Ablett's is 1:1.6
Judd's is 1:0.94

Judd has put it inside 50 129 times this season, for 24 goal assists.
Ablett has 67 I50's for 14 goal assists.
Selwood 75 I50's for 13 goal assists.

One thing that's evident with Judd is that he's probably the most direct player in the competition - every time he gets the ball he looks for the long option. It hurts his %DE but his goal assists show just how valuable that can be.

Ablett seems to play it safer than Selwood, based on the stats. Definitely prefers to handball it rather than kick. Neither are anywhere near as direct as Judd.

41% of Judd's touches are contested
35% of Selwood's are contested and likewise for Ablett

That's a very high number for all three players, which undoubtedly affects their %DE.

Their %DE according to Champion's Data is:
Ablett: 75.5%
Selwood: 74.4%
Judd: 71%

None of them are poor kicks though I don't think Selwood is as creative by foot as Ablett or Judd.

However, there's just too many variables that can affect %DE from player to player (even in the same position) that aren't accounted for, making it at best a very rough indication.

Taking DE at face value, Cross is a better user of the footy than Pendlebury. Yet Bulldogs supporters will admit Cross is a poor user while Collingwood supporters will claim Pendlebury as brilliant with the ball in hand.

Shit stat, period. I prefer to use my eyes when judging disposal, not a stat which doesn't take into account context.

Note I'm not making a judgement call on Swan or Judd's disposals. Has absolutely nothing to do with bias one way or the other. Just stating my opinion on the matter.

 

[pieman123]

Rebound 50s more important in judging a midfielder than clearances?

Funny that you claim I'm twisting facts to suit my argument when it's clear that you're doing just that. I've been arguing the point for years and most posters would agree with me. A post I made last year:



Taking DE at face value, Cross is a better user of the footy than Pendlebury. Yet Bulldogs supporters will admit Cross is a poor user while Collingwood supporters will claim Pendlebury as brilliant with the ball in hand.

Shit stat, period. I prefer to use my eyes when judging disposal, not a stat which doesn't take into account context.

Note I'm not making a judgement call on Swan or Judd's disposals. Has absolutely nothing to do with bias one way or the other. Just stating my opinion on the matter.

Cross's DE is higher than Pendlebury's because he handballs more, Pendles kicking efficiency would be higher

 

[blues4flag]

Cross's DE is higher than Pendlebury's because he handballs more, Pendles kicking efficiency would be higher

Exactly. However you'd only get that from watching them play. DE gives no context, hence on it's own it is borderline useless.

 

[sexyresults]

Why can't some collingwood supporters accept that people are picking Judd?

 

[Azzurri Blues]

If they played in the same team Judd would be swan's captain and leader.

Judd would get tagged and swan wouldnt.

Judd a better role model and a better ambassador for the environment.

If you had a son you would want him to turn out like Judd not like that feral bogan.

 

[ThePuppetMaster]

.................... Judd, not this season obviously as Swan has torn it up and deserved his accolades, but he gets a lot of uncontested ball, therefore his disposal efficiency is bound to higher, people who disregard that fact are simply blind in their bias... collingwood fans, Judd has a lot more impact on the game than swan.... Swan is just a very clever accumulator of the ball, with an absolutely supreme fitness base

 

[danielnajdek]

We'll see how good Swan is next week

 

[Dangas]

exactly