Ladder / Finals Predictor

[1eyed_pie]

Hi Guys, First post here

Had a look at the ladder / finals predictor. I know it all depends on other games outcomes but by my predictions if we win the games we should win and the favorites get up in other games we will still need to win the......

St Kilda & Geelong games to finish 2nd

Win one of the St Kilda or Geelong games to finish 3rd

If Hawks roll us in round 22 and we lose both of the above games we could finish 5th


Win one of St Kilda / G’Long / Hwks game and finish 3rd



Have a go yourself and see what out comes you come up with.



The other thing it helps with is to determine which team to barrack for in other games which will benefit us finishing top 4.


Rnd 15 Lions to roll Saints at the Gabba would be good for us Go Lions
Tigers to roll Freo at Etihad Highly unlikely although the tigers are in good form!

Rnd 17 Would be in our best interest for Bulldogs to roll Freo

Rnd 18 would help our cause if Kangas rolled Bulldogs Go Roos

Rnd 19 We need to barrack for the Roos again if they failed the previous week

Rnd 20 Swans to get up over freo highly unlikely though

Rnd 21 Swans to get up over Bulldogs at SCG

If we were to lose to St Kilda and won all the rest of our games and Freo won the rest of theirs we would still finish 4th and face Geelong in the first final.

If we were only to lose Geelong game and win all rest and Freo wins remainder of their games we would finish 3rd and face Freo 2nd in Perth!

Not a good scenario.

The St Kilda game takes on monumental proportions on our path to the Grand final if we were to make it that far. Because that would allow us to drop a game against a Carl/Rich/Ess and it wouldn't matter in the wash up.

There also could be a scenario that the Hawks game in rnd 22 would be a dead rubber meaning finishing 2nd or 3rd and playing st kilda regardless.

Anyway I think the St Kilda game is the most important game of the H&A as far as the Pies are concerned.

It could mean we enter rnd 22 without pressure of falling out of top 4 and can assault the hawks on the eve of the finals and go in to the finals with confidence and momentum!




http://www.afl.com.au/bailey ladder predictor/tabid/13046/default.aspx


_________________
Never disperse your focus unless absolutely necessary. Face one adversary at a time!


BARRACK HARD!

 

[TradeDraft]

 

[StillWaiting5689]

I'll assume this is all done with the saints winning all their games and Geelong winning all theirs, this is unlikely to happen. The predictor is hard to do this far out from the end because you find yourself tipping as if the game were to played tomorrow but form fluctuates to much in this amount of time.

 

[mattys123]

That ladder predictor is so hard to do.

After all, who here or anywhere has tipped 8 winners each week, or even got close to that.

I think I have got 8 twice so far this year, so if you want to make a fair representation of what the ladder may look like, you would have to pick 2-3 "smokies" a week to get up, and you simply can not see which 2-3 would get up each week.

The way I look at it (purely from a Collingwood prespective) is our destiny is in our hands.

If we want to finish 2nd or 3rd (Stkilda vs Collingwood first final) we have to win at least 7 of the last 10 matches, and most probably 8.

 

[AsianWithAFro]

I honestly wish we could finish 2nd and have Freo finish 3rd

 

[Optimax]

Just keep winning

 

[Quicky]

Welcome aboard mate, great first post

I think as hard as it is to crystal ball the season keeping it simple like you've done is probably the best way to go about.

Agree with you that the Saints game becomes really important. Not only because they are fighting for the same spot on the ladder but because we really need to prove ourselves against them.

 

[DJ Black @ White Blood]

Ive done this ladder predictor every night for the last few weeks. Problem is the pies allways end up 2nd on ladder end of round 22 regardless of who i have winning or losing. It stumped me and i couldnt work it out, then i realised what i was doing. You see i couldnt tip the pies to lose. I think i had them losing to the cats or saints once but then winning everything else. The thing is i had the saints and freo losing at least 2 or 3 games sort of shock losses. I did try with the pies losing heaps of games and was happy to see we still just got into the 8.

 

[PieLebo87]

I dunno what I did, but worst case scenario (in my books) is we might have a battle for a top 4 spot with the Hawks at Round 22. Winner gets a double chance, loser will be licking their wounds.

 

[Boris the Contradiction]

Didn't bother with the finals predictor, just find that I'm too biased
Home and Away finishes like this guys, mark it down.

1-Geelong (on 19 wins)
2-Collingwood
3-St Kilda
4-Fremantle
5-Bulldogs
6-Hawthorn
7-Carlton
8-Sydney (on 10 wins)

9-Melbourne (on 9 wins)
10-Brisbane
11-North Melbourne
12-Adelaide
13-Essendon
14-Richmond
15-Port Adelaide
16-West Coast (on 5 wins)

 

[Mickaman]

Its hard enough getting it right a few rounds out let alone with 10 rounds remaining. We will have to get our mojo back if we want to be top 4. There are a few teams that are showing more than us to be a top 4 team at the moment.

 

[Tarkyn_24]

Cats 20-0-2 151.2%
Saints 18-0-4 138.8%
Magpies 16-1-5 131.2%
Dockers 15-0-7 117.1%
Bulldogs 14-0-8 123.8%
Blues 13-0-9 111.2%
Hawks 12-0-10 105.7%
Swans 11-0-11 108.9%
Demons 10-1-11 93.7%
Kangaroos 9-0-13 74.2%
Bombers 8-0-14 90.2%
Tigers 7-0-15 79.8%
Power 7-0-15 78.5%
Lions 6-0-16 84.5%
Eagles 5-0-17 76.0%
Crows 4-0-18 75.6%​

Was what I roughly ended up with.

EDIT: FWIW, my start of season predictions were as follows;

1. Geelong (Roughly 18 wins) - I can't see them being dislodged from the top of the ladder, but I do feel they will start to falter. Just how good Selwood really is should be marked by how he copes as aging veterans around him start to tire, and he takes on a larger burden. Range: 1st-5th

2. St Kilda (Roughly 18 wins) - Besides a few slip-ups late in the season, they had a very impressive season. I can't see them replicating their awesome streak of last season, and a few losses during the trade and draft periods will hurt. It seems to me they're looking to recruit for the VFL side more than he AFL, because IMO Peake and Hooper are useless. Range: 1st-4th

3. Collingwood (Roughly 16 wins) - A very difficult draw is the only thing that could stop them pressing for a top two finish. They've addressed perceived deficiencies in recruiting Ball as an inside mid and Jolly as a hitout machine. They desperately need Cloke, Anthony and Rusling to stand up, but Macaffer can play tall and will provide a lot more consistency to the forward line and Fraser will more than likely releive pressure on Cloke.Range: 2nd-6th

4. Sydney (Roughly 14 wins) - Call me crazy, but I actually think Sydney have one of the better best 22's going around. Depth may be an issue, though, because beyond about player 26 it looks pretty bleak to me. Kirk, O'Keefe and Goodes, while aging, will be very servicable, and Bradshaw, providing he stays injury free, will ease the pressure on White.Range: 4th-10th

5. Hawthorn (Roughly 14 wins) - They probably have the best forward set-up in the competition, but I think they were relatively inefficient in addressing their inadequacies in the draft and trade weeks. I believe Sewell, Hodge and Mitchell all firing and servicing Franklin, Roughead and Rioli is a very imposing combination. I'm still not sold on their defense or the rolling zone as teams (all but Collingwood it seems) are starting to defeat the technique. Willow will be missed.Range:2nd-12th

6 Western Bulldogs (Roughly 14 wins) - I see less upside to the Bulldogs this season than what I did last season. Smiley, Acker and Eagle will all be a year older, and I think the younger players in Harbrow, Hill and Picken will come under greater scrutiny as they really develop. Sometimes this can bring out the major flaws in a player (ie Jason Cloke post-2002). I still don't rate Cooney, though Griffen I expect to have a standout year.Range: 3rd-8th

7. Brisbane (Roughly 12 wins) - There's a lot of upside to their midfield. Black might be getting older but he seems to have a Rovert Harvey-like quality in that he just doesn't tire, and is the epitome of consistency. Rischitelli has something to prove, as does Clarke and Maguire, and Fevola will have to be on his best behaviour up north. I think the signing of Fevola will really stretch defences, and will probably see Brown in a position to really exploit teams, especially if they persist with Brennan and Mitch Clark up forward too - I just don't see any defence that could quell all four.Range: 6th-10th

8. Adelaide (Roughly 10 wins) - I don't see all that much upside to Adelaide to be honest. Sellar, Walker and Tippett will all develop, but I just don't really understand the hype around the squad at all. They seem to monster minnows, but aren't all that great against better sides. A conservative eighth for mine.Range:5th-12th

9. Essendon (Roughly 10 wins) - I don't know what to think of Essendon to be brutally honest. I do know that a club that persists with Neagle at full forward will never be a premiership contender. They'll probably look to further develop Hurley, Hooker, Gumbleton et al. and will be on the brink of the eight without ever actually looking like they'll make it.Range: 8th-12th

10. Carlton (Roughly 10 wins) - Another team that is hard to pin down, but I think a major forward deficiency will see them struggle to contend with stronger units in the competition. The backline still looks pretty ordinary too. The midfield ensemble has been bolstered, and Kreuzer and Hampson in the ruck will definitely improve the team. I just don't see where the goals come from, unless Fisher thrives without traffic being directed through Fev. Range: 9th-11th

11. West Coast (Roughly 10 wins) - I think West Coast will really develop as a strength at home, much the same way as they did in 2002. They're still three years away from seriously challenging, perhaps even more, but I think that the best 22 of West Coast has a lot of potential. Naitanui will improve, Cox and Kerr return and Masten and Ebert will be looking to have an impact. Darren Glass will have to have a consistent, injury-free campaign, however, if the Eagles are to make the finals - he is easily the most important player in the make-up of the team. Range: 9th-13th

12. Melbourne (Roughly 6 wins) - Between the top eleven sides in the competition, and the bottom five I feel there is a massive gap that wn't be bridged. However, of the bottom five, I think Melbourne possibly has the most upside. They'll be looking to develop their younger guys through the VFL and will struggle early in the year, but as these younger blokes become more prevalent in AFL ranks, they'll start to be a more competitive team. Brad Miller and Jared Rivers must stand up if the Demons are to achieve beyond my prediction. Range: 12th-16th

13. Fremantle (Roughly 5 wins) - I hang shit on Fremantle all the time, which sort of paints how dire the outlook is for the bottom three teams in the competition. In seriousness, it will again be Paclixh, Sandilands and Tarrant that save the day for the Dockers... I still don't rate Hill after a full year of football, but Palmer, Mayne and Ibbotson should all continue their development and become very servicable players in 2010. Range: 12th - 14th

14. Richmond (Roughly 3 wins) - There's not really much that can be said of Richmond. Of all the teams in the competition, I think the outlook is only more bleak for Port Adelaide. Cotchin will be a real talent, and getting Mitch Farmer at the expense of Jay Schulz was a masterstroke, but while players like Jake King continue to get senior gigs for the Tigers, I just don't feel they can move forward as a club. I was surprised at Polak's delisting... Hardwick has some work to do. Nahas will provide the upside in a bleak, lean year, Range: 13th-15th

15. North Melbourne (Roughly 3 wins) - I think it'll be another lean year for the Kangaroos, though I think it will ultimately bear some very good fruition in a couple of years. They'll play a lot of inexperienced players and really have a focus on development under Scott. Harvey will have to have a tremendous year to see the club win more than five games. It shouldn't be down to one player, but I feel it will be him, Petrie and Harding that will be the "match-winners". Range: 14th-16th

16. Port Adelaide (Roughly 3 wins) - To be perfectly blunt, I think Port have a dismal list, and that their approach to trade week, losing Burgoyne and landing Nash and Schulz, was very much ineffective. I don't see any upside whatsoever to the squad, so it's hard to even pretend to give them a positive critique. Goodbye Choco.Range: 14th-16th

 

[1eyed_pie]

As I have stated earlier

This weeks game I feel is the most important H&A in regards if we want to finish top two!

By using the ladder predictor I have us finishing top two if we were to win this week and lose one other to say Cats or Hawks.......but if we lose this week and win every other game we will finish 3rd!

Interesting isn't it.........It all hinges for us atleast on this week where we finish providing we win the matches we SHOULD win.


2nd or 3rd we will still play Stkilda first week in the finals.

Unless we don't lose another match and finish 1st and take on freo at the G

My final prediction is....

1. Cats
2. Pies
3. StK
4. Freo
5. Dogs
6. Hawks
7. Blues
8. Swans

9. Rich


http://www.afl.com.au/bailey%20ladder%20predictor/tabid/13046/default.aspx

If we want us to have a real red hot go at winning a flag........winning the remaining H&A games would give us a good chance to finnish 1st and will put us in the box seat for GLORY!


premierships won from ladder position after rnd 22

1st. 18 Premierships

2nd. 13 Premierships

3rd. 7 Premierships

4th. 1 Premierships

5th. 1 Premierships

_________________
Never disperse your focus unless absolutely necessary. Face one adversary at a time!


BARRACK HARD!

 

[daics_35]

I have us playing the saints first week and losing to them then playing the Hawks. I am scared from the Hawks i hope they suffer a few more injuries and miss out on the 8.

 

[Pies_10]

My Ladder Predictor was
1. Geelong 76pts
2. Collingwood 70pts
3. St Kilda 68pts
4. Fremantle 60pts

5. Bulldogs 56pts
6. Hawthorn 52pts
7. Carlton 44pts
8. Sydney 40pts

 

[Bay Pie]

I think the Dogs may get 4th (very good percentage) and the Hawks (looked pretty good albeit Geelong were undermanned) will get into 5th. I see Freo sliding to 6th.

 

[Mickaman]

I think the Dogs may get 4th (very good percentage) and the Hawks (looked pretty good albeit Geelong were undermanned) will get into 5th. I see Freo sliding to 6th.

I also think that Freo will drop they will be in 5th in 2 weeks time after the dogs take care of them at the dome.

I have:

Cats 76
Saints 72
Pies 62
Dogs 56
Dockers 56
Hawks 56
North 44
Carlton 40

If this happens will come down to percentage for 4th. I have us losing to Saints Cats & Hawks which will be an issue if we lose all 3 of them (I think we will win one of these 3 but not against the hawks as round 22 will make no difference win or lose we will end up 2nd or 3rd and play saints first week.)

They would probably be the 3 teams we would have to play in this setup we would have to get over the Hawks in the second week if we lost to the saints. I have Sydney dropping out North coming in and Carlton to get in on 10 wins. It is always crazy predicting this far out from the end of the season as anything could happen.

 

[Old Spice]

Ladder:

Cats
Saints
Pies
Freo
Dogs
Hawks
Carlton
Sydney

Still top 3 even if we lose 3 of the next 7.

Finals:

Cats D Freo
Pies D Saints
Dogs KO Sydney
Hawks KO Carlton

Freo KO Dogs
Saints KO Hawks

Pies KO Freo
Cats KO St Kilda

Pies KO Cats

 

[Pie eyed]

My Ladder Predictor was
1. Geelong 76pts
2. Collingwood 70pts
3. St Kilda 68pts
4. Fremantle 60pts

5. Bulldogs 56pts
6. Hawthorn 52pts
7. Carlton 44pts
8. Sydney 40pts

Ditto.

 

[Cousin of Daicos]

I had us winning all games bar the Geelong, St.Kilda and Hawthorn ones. Which is what you'd THINK would happen.

That would put us third on my predictor.

Either way, we're playing Geelong or St.Kilda first.

ugh. I'm really over being there to make up the numbers.

 

[daics_35]

I had us winning all games bar the Geelong, St.Kilda and Hawthorn ones. Which is what you'd THINK would happen.

That would put us third on my predictor.

Either way, we're playing Geelong or St.Kilda first.

ugh. I'm really over being there to make up the numbers.

Yer true, i think our season will end pretty similar to last season.

 

[pauly_moss]

defeatest all of you magpies for top spot and to go on and win the flag. I truely believe we are the best side in the comp now and will finish either 1st or 2nd lose maybe one more game for the year against either cats or saints but will smash the hawks