Strategy List Management 101

Remove this Banner Ad

Log in to remove this ad.

Episode 4B

Now that we're a bit further into the season, I have reviewed Episode 4 and added some subjective analysis. I approach each year with a 'rule out' rather than 'rule in' approach. IE before the season starts, 18 teams are in the race. Before a ball has even been bounced, some of them can be eliminated because their squads are insufficient. I also enjoy the second half of the year as certain teams become mathematically incapable of winning, and the field narrows considerably. So here's where we're at in 2016.

As mentioned in Episode 4, there are 4 teams for whom a Premiership in 2016 would be unprecedented in the history of the current finals system. These clubs are Carlton, Sydney, Melbourne and St Kilda. They were therefore ruled out before bounce-down of Round 1.

Further notes:
1) No team in the history of the current finals system has won (or even reached the Grand Final) from outside the top 4
2) In the past 5 years (when the league had either 17 or 18 teams), no team has lost more than 6 games and made the top 4
3) In the history of the current finals system, no team has lost more than 9 games and made the top 4

I'm going to take a small amount of creative liberty here. 5 years is a small sample size, however it should logically be more difficult to make the top 4 with 18 teams rather than 16. With the combination of that, and the way the season has looked so far (a few no hopers and a very congested top half of the ladder) I have set a bar of no more than 8 losses to make the top 4. Assuming no draws, this would be a record of 14-8.

Fremantle already have 8 losses. They could be mathematically eliminated as early as next week. Brisbane and the drug cheats have 7 losses each, and are not far behind.

That leaves us with Geelong, Norf, the Bulldogs, GWS, Hawthorn, West Coast, Adelaide, Port Adelaide, the Gold Coast, Richmond and Collingwood.

If I was betting I'd say there were extremely slim odds on Collingwood and the Gold Coast going 11-3 for the rest of the year. The odds of Richmond going 12-2 are even slimmer. In any case I expect in a month or so they'll be mathematically eliminated.

Of the 8 teams remaining, the ones with the best placed lists in terms of age and experience are Norf, Hawthorn, Geelong and West Coast. History tells me to expect at least 2 of them to make the top 4. I also expect at least 1 of GWS, the Bulldogs, Adelaide and Sydney to make the top 4. The way the season is panning out so far, I expect it will be 2. We could even have the unique possibility of 3 younger sides in the top 4, which would be a first in the current finals system.
 
swansfan51 said:
Episode 4B

Now that we're a bit further into the season, I have reviewed Episode 4 and added some subjective analysis. I approach each year with a 'rule out' rather than 'rule in' approach. IE before the season starts, 18 teams are in the race. Before a ball has even been bounced, some of them can be eliminated because their squads are insufficient. I also enjoy the second half of the year as certain teams become mathematically incapable of winning, and the field narrows considerably. So here's where we're at in 2016.

As mentioned in Episode 4, there are 4 teams for whom a Premiership in 2016 would be unprecedented in the history of the current finals system. These clubs are Carlton, Sydney, Melbourne and St Kilda. They were therefore ruled out before bounce-down of Round 1.

Further notes:
1) No team in the history of the current finals system has won (or even reached the Grand Final) from outside the top 4
2) In the past 5 years (when the league had either 17 or 18 teams), no team has lost more than 6 games and made the top 4
3) In the history of the current finals system, no team has lost more than 9 games and made the top 4

I'm going to take a small amount of creative liberty here. 5 years is a small sample size, however it should logically be more difficult to make the top 4 with 18 teams rather than 16. With the combination of that, and the way the season has looked so far (a few no hopers and a very congested top half of the ladder) I have set a bar of no more than 8 losses to make the top 4. Assuming no draws, this would be a record of 14-8.

Fremantle already have 8 losses. They could be mathematically eliminated as early as next week. Brisbane and the drug cheats have 7 losses each, and are not far behind.

That leaves us with Geelong, Norf, the Bulldogs, GWS, Hawthorn, West Coast, Adelaide, Port Adelaide, the Gold Coast, Richmond and Collingwood.

If I was betting I'd say there were extremely slim odds on Collingwood and the Gold Coast going 11-3 for the rest of the year. The odds of Richmond going 12-2 are even slimmer. In any case I expect in a month or so they'll be mathematically eliminated.

Of the 8 teams remaining, the ones with the best placed lists in terms of age and experience are Norf, Hawthorn, Geelong and West Coast. History tells me to expect at least 2 of them to make the top 4. I also expect at least 1 of GWS, the Bulldogs, Adelaide and Sydney to make the top 4. The way the season is panning out so far, I expect it will be 2. We could even have the unique possibility of 3 younger sides in the top 4, which would be a first in the current finals system.
Click to expand...



Any thoughts on how Gws affect this analysis if at all of course. By that I mean yes they are in that younger group you highlight, but they have an unprecedented amount of top 10 picks in that group
 
Swansrule100 said:
Any thoughts on how Gws affect this analysis if at all of course. By that I mean yes they are in that younger group you highlight, but they have an unprecedented amount of top 10 picks in that group
Click to expand...
GWS definitely can win, it isn't unprecedented. They'd be up there with that great Brisbane side of 2001, and Hawthorn 2008 were of similar age/experience. Probability is more on the side of Norf/Hawthorn etc, but they're a shot.
 
Wayne Swan said:
Time to bump this up, it needs to be on the first page once we approach trade time
Click to expand...

One thing that I think is worth discussing is what we do with our first round pick. Given our ladder position we will probably end up with a pick between 15-18 or something in that area. I also think we can all agree KPD is our big concern at the moment, as it was last year. I wonder, should we draft the best available key defender with our first round pick or do what we did with Ted Richards and go to another club and offer our first rounder for one of their key position defenders.
 
RUNVS said:
One thing that I think is worth discussing is what we do with our first round pick. Given our ladder position we will probably end up with a pick between 15-18 or something in that area. I also think we can all agree KPD is our big concern at the moment, as it was last year. I wonder, should we draft the best available key defender with our first round pick or do what we did with Ted Richards and go to another club and offer our first rounder for one of their key position defenders.
Click to expand...
Would depend on what the academy is looking like
 

(Log in to remove this ad.)

MarkP said:
We certainly got best available last year that's for sure. Maybe the real number 1.

Yeh Eddie dwell on that you fat campaigner.
Click to expand...
I really hope he reads this board (even just now and then) ... would be nice for him to know how much we think of him.
 
RUNVS said:
He would cost quite a bit at the trade table, and I can't see Melbourne being interested in our late teens pick first round pick, they would want a high quality player for McDonald.
Click to expand...

Our 1st + 2nd for their 3rd + McDonald seems fair
 
replicant said:
Seems fair to us, but if i was the dees, i'd say GAGF. What do they need pick 18 and 36 for? ;)
Click to expand...

It's all hypothetical...but if he wants out and is uncontracted then they don't have much bargaining power. Also they've screwed us with Mills + Heeney in the last couple of years so no need for us to be generous.
 
1990Swan said:
It's all hypothetical...but if he wants out and is uncontracted then they don't have much bargaining power. Also they've screwed us with Mills + Heeney in the last couple of years so no need for us to be generous.
Click to expand...

Thats not how trading works and they didnt screw us. It made no difference where Heeney was bid on as we were always taking him with our first pick. Mills was worth pick 3 every day of the week, don't blame them at all for bidding on him.

If we somehow managed to get Tom, i think we'd have to find a way to give melbourne either 2 first rounders, or a top 10 pick. Probably with some steak knives thrown in
 
You must log in or register to reply here.

Similar threads

rustycrate
Analysis Rusty's 2024 Player List and Stats
2
Replies
39
Views
2K
rustycrate
rustycrate
rustycrate
List Mgmt. Sydney Swans List - One look and you see lots - Delve - The List evolves too
2 3 4 5
Replies
105
Views
6K
Callipygian
Callipygian
Heeney2Franklin
Autopsy Back on the winners list Swans by 53 against the Dogs.
8 9 10 11 12
Replies
294
Views
9K
caesar88
caesar88
Callipygian
List Mgmt. AFLW 2023 list + Draft & Trade Hypotheticals
2 3
Replies
58
Views
3K
SwansProudly
SwansProudly
SwansProudly
Injury 2023 AFLW Injury list
2
Replies
25
Views
2K
Callipygian
Callipygian

Remove this Banner Ad

Back
Top