- Jun 22, 2008
- 24,580
- 21,276
- AFL Club
- Geelong
I'll start by saying that I've already purchased tickets in the MS raffle here in WA and have previously purchased tickets in similar raffles in Victoria.
The one in Victoria had 80,000 tickets and 4,000 prize draws from memory. Their big claim was that you had a 1 in 20 chance of winning a prize. (may have been 2,000 prizes and 1 in 40 chance) If you happened to win a prize, your number went back into the draw, hence people winning multiple prizes.
If there are 80,000 tickets and even if you win something and your number goes back in, surely you only have a 1 in 80,000 chance for each and every seperate prize draw.
I've just purchased tickets for the MS one over here. There are 62,000 for sale and 2,481 prize draws. Apart from the difference in total number of tickets, the other difference is that unless you win an early bird prize, once you are drawn out and win something, your number does not go back into the draw for the remaining prize draws.
From their website FAQs.
How do you know there is a 1 in 25 chance to win a prize?
The MS Society has received independent confirmation from Data Analysis Australia that with 62,000 tickets and 2,481 prizes in total, there is a 1 in 25 chance of winning a prize - assuming all tickets are sold. If the MS Mega Home Lottery does not sell all 62,000 tickets then your odds of winning a prize improve.
Note: Each ticket purchased prior to the Early Bird ticket sales close is eligible for the Early Bird Prize Draw and to win one of the other 2,480 prize draws. Tickets purchased after Early Bird ticket sales close are eligible to win one of the other 2,480 prizes on offer.
Do the above claims pan out? I'm sure there is a statistically minded person on here that can confirm or otherwise.
To me if there are 62,000 tickets you are a 62,000 to 1 chance of having your number come up each time (slightly less as they proceed through the draws) by the end I would have thought that you are no better than a 59,519 to 1 chance of winning.
What am I missing? I was going to start this thread a few years ago after seeing the claims made by the hospital one that runs in Victoria but thought that I might get attacked for questioning a charitible raffle.
The one in Victoria had 80,000 tickets and 4,000 prize draws from memory. Their big claim was that you had a 1 in 20 chance of winning a prize. (may have been 2,000 prizes and 1 in 40 chance) If you happened to win a prize, your number went back into the draw, hence people winning multiple prizes.
If there are 80,000 tickets and even if you win something and your number goes back in, surely you only have a 1 in 80,000 chance for each and every seperate prize draw.
I've just purchased tickets for the MS one over here. There are 62,000 for sale and 2,481 prize draws. Apart from the difference in total number of tickets, the other difference is that unless you win an early bird prize, once you are drawn out and win something, your number does not go back into the draw for the remaining prize draws.
From their website FAQs.
How do you know there is a 1 in 25 chance to win a prize?
The MS Society has received independent confirmation from Data Analysis Australia that with 62,000 tickets and 2,481 prizes in total, there is a 1 in 25 chance of winning a prize - assuming all tickets are sold. If the MS Mega Home Lottery does not sell all 62,000 tickets then your odds of winning a prize improve.
Note: Each ticket purchased prior to the Early Bird ticket sales close is eligible for the Early Bird Prize Draw and to win one of the other 2,480 prize draws. Tickets purchased after Early Bird ticket sales close are eligible to win one of the other 2,480 prizes on offer.
Do the above claims pan out? I'm sure there is a statistically minded person on here that can confirm or otherwise.
To me if there are 62,000 tickets you are a 62,000 to 1 chance of having your number come up each time (slightly less as they proceed through the draws) by the end I would have thought that you are no better than a 59,519 to 1 chance of winning.
What am I missing? I was going to start this thread a few years ago after seeing the claims made by the hospital one that runs in Victoria but thought that I might get attacked for questioning a charitible raffle.
fair enough.
