Obama v McCain -- Closest to the Pin

[Palmer Stoat]

Both parties have nominees. For the Republicans, it's Old Man McCain. For the Democrats, it's Barack Obama. You've seen them strutting their stuff on the big stage the last few months (though, in truth, it's more of doddery shuffle in McCain's case). You've witnessed the performance of their parties -- Bush and the Republicans are as popular as a carbuncle on your gearstick, while the Democrats are more popular (because at least they're not fricking Republicans).

So who's gonna win? By how much? Who are gonna be the VP selections? And what's gonna be the biggest surprise of the campaign? Let's see who can get closest to the pin.

I'll get the ball rolling...

VP Choices
Obama - Schweitzer
McCain - Pawlenty

With Edwards ruling himself out and Warner seemingly committed to the Virginia senate seat, I'm tipping Obama will select Brian Schweitzer, current Governor of Montana. After flirting with the idea of Alaska Governor Sarah Palin, McCain will select Tim Pawlenty as his running mate. Pawlenty is young and is the Republican Governor of a competitive state (Minnesota).

General Election Winner
Obama

Margin [Total Electoral College votes: 538. Needed to win: 270]
I'm probably wildly optimistic, but despite what current polling says, I think Obama wins this election BIG.

Obama 328
McCain 210

To calculate all the permutations and produce your own map, follow this link. [Thanks to DaveW who pointed me in this site's direction.]

I think Obama will retain all the states Kerry won in 04 -- getting over the line in close Kerry states such as Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania -- and will add key states such as Virginia, Colorado, Missouri, Iowa, and Indiana.

Biggest Surprise of the Campaign
Obama gets within five points in Texas.

Biggest Issue of the Campaign?
Will it be Iraq? Iran? McCain's continuing difficulty in distinguishing between Shia and Sunni? The economy? Global Warming? Hagee and Wright? Carbon dating revealing that McCain is older than Mt Rushmore? Electoral fraud? Media bias? Health care? Something else?

My guess: Economy (it trumps everything, even war)

 

[camsmith]

lol nice balanced view of things there.

Could you be saying you think McCain is old? Have you forgotten about the great man, Ronnie Reagan who was about as old as him when elected and re-elected and who turned out to be one of the best modern presidents the US has had.

I might give that map a go in a few days. The polls from here on in will be interesting. Will those Clinton supporters vote for McCain or was that just pre-nomination spin. Who knows.

I think the economy will be a huge factor, therefore McCain obviously needs to choose his VP wisely (ie: someone smart on the economy like uh, I dont know, Romney). But McCain will continue to get national security involved and perhaps do a better job than Hillary '3 am phone call' Clinton did. If Iraq continues to get better as it should, McCain will continually make Obama seem weak on national security etc..

Not sure who will win. I still dont know if conservative US can elect someone as leftist as Obama.

The biggest non-surprise will be the democrats playing the race card.

Predictions to come soon (although given my Aus election predictions, I wouldn't take much notice )

 

[Bomber32]

VP Choices
Barack Obama - Hillary Clinton
John McCain - Mark Sanford

General Election Winner
Obama

Margin
I do believe that it will be a comfortable win to Barack Obama.

Obama - 301
McCain - 237

Barack Obama should be able to retain all of the states won by the Democrats in 2004. I have tipped him to win Colorado, Iowa, Virginia and Ohio. The Republicans have never won the White House without carrying Ohio and I'm certain Obama will take it with Hillary Clinton on the ticket.

Biggest Surprise of the Campaign
Obama nearly upsets McCain in North Carolina.

Biggest Issue of the Campaign
It's the economy, stupid.

 

[DaveW]

VP Choices

Barack Obama - Jack Reed*
John McCain - Tim Pawlenty

* don't mind me: I change my mind every day about who Obama's running mate should be.

General Election Winner

Barack Obama. With an outright majority of the popular vote.

Electoral College

Obama 298 (183 + 115)
McCain 240 (189 + 51)

Obama wins all the Kerry states plus OH, CO, NM, NV. I'm not locking this in as a prediction - that will surely change as election day gets nearer - it's just roughly how I see things as they currently stand. Obama seems to be going alright in Ohio. Michigan is a worry - but I think his numbers will improve there. Nevada is perhaps my most optimistic pick, but Obama seems to do OK with western whites, so he can surely take a state that's been very close in recent elections.

On a national scale, this election is the Democrats for the taking. And whilst I believe McCain is one Republican who can run away from his party label, there's a limited extent to which he can get away with it.

The lighter colours are the states "in play". I sorta expect to be moving MN and OR into the "safe" column as the campaign progresses.

Biggest Surprise of the Campaign

I dunno. That's why it'll be a surprise.

Biggest Issue of the Campaign?

Iraq.

As Jimmy Carter said, "I don't think Bush has taken any step - in going into Iraq or staying there or increasing the number of our troops - where McCain didn't say he should have done more."

The contrast between the two candidates' positions on the war could not be starker.

 

[JW Frogen]

Too early to say, you have to get past the conventions (Nixon looked impossible before the 1968 Dem convention disaster) and into the debates.

With the huge improvements in Iraq I actually think it will be a lesser issue than most on this board, (though I suspect the insurgents, wanting and Obama Presidency and pullout will attempt a late summer huge-random killing spree, as they did in an attempt to discredit the Iraqi elections, now to discredit McCain. Whether they can or not is another issue. The success of the surge has in a away got McCain the Republican nomination, but in many respects neutralised Iraq as THE issue, so takes his big win off the table, unless he can put it back on the table by mantra politics.)

I think the economy and Bush fatigue will be the big issues.

And that will play to Obama.

Almost any Dem should win big this year; Mac has a huge up-hill battle.

He needs to pin Obama down on details during the debates and hope that Obama’s wife goes off on some crazy white hating hip hop rant.

 

[JW Frogen]

As Jimmy Carter said, "I don't think Bush has taken any step - in going into Iraq or staying there or increasing the number of our troops - where McCain didn't say he should have done more."

The contrast between the two candidates' positions on the war could not be starker.

Obama needs to stay as far away as he can from Jimmy Carter. Get out a restraining order if need be.

This plays right into the Republican line of attack that this inexperienced Obama-phenomena will be a global diaster for US foriegn policy interests.

As Carter's Presidency was.

The last thing Obama needs is this to even look like a smugen of Carter vs Reagan.

 

[KissStephanie]

I think Obama will retain all the states Kerry won in 04 -- getting over the line in close Kerry states such as Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania -- and will add key states such as Virginia, Colorado, Missouri, Iowa, and Indiana.

I have not even met a single Obama supporter here in the US that expects Obama to win all of the states that Kerry won in 2004, not without Clinton on the ticket anyway.

VP Choices
Barack Obama - Hillary Clinton
John McCain - Mark Sanford

To have any chance of winning the election, Obama must do this, and surely he will because I can only imagine the outcry if it was reversed and Obama was not offered to be her running mate after finishing such an incredibly close second. In fact, I couldn't imagine any candidate finishing so close behind the winner, and not being offered running-mate...

Obama's No Brainer; Make Hillary Vice President

CNN: Many of Clinton's 18 Million Voters are Hesitant to Back Obama

Madame Vice President; Hillary Clinton

Wall Street Journal: Clinton's Out But VP Speculation Continues

 

[waspy]

I have not even met a single Obama supporter here in the US that expects Obama to win all of the states that Kerry won in 2004, not without Clinton on the ticket anyway.

The close Kerry states at the moment are PA, MI, MN and NH. Obama leads by a decent margin in both PA and MN. He is only barely trailing in MI despite not really campaigning there at all. The next poll from there should be very interesting, considering the RBC decision and Hillary's withdrawal. The national swing since then has been about 6 points Obama's way, so a trend similar to that would see Obama ahead in MI. NH would be the only worry, but that's anther one that could show a lead after recent events. All the other Kerry states are reasonably safe and should be fine with or without Hillary.

Obama is also leading (or will be likely to be leading in the next poll) in OH, CO, NM, NV, IA and MO. Winning even just a couple of these states plus the Kerry states is enough to win the election.

Hillary may indeed be the best choice for VP, but if Obama picks someone else then he can still win all the Kerry states and enough Bush states to take the election. My personal opinion is that he would be best choosing someone else, maybe Schweitzer or Sebelius.

 

[Mr Q]

I have not even met a single Obama supporter here in the US that expects Obama to win all of the states that Kerry won in 2004, not without Clinton on the ticket anyway.

Well if you talk to them anything like you've spoken to a lot of people here, I'm surprised any of them would be saying anything much nicer to you than "ha ha", so I don't really think you'd have that much of a picture.

 

[jimmy.h]

VP Choices
Obama - Kaine
McCain - Pawlenty

General Election Winner
Obama

Electoral College

Obama 297
McCain 241

Obama to pick up Virginia, Colorado, Iowa and Ohio Edit On second thoughts a Dem win will probably include Missouri (so goes the nation and all that).
McCain to pick up New Hampshire

Biggest Surprise of the Campaign

The result in Florida isn't considered important. (not a surprise as much as a change)

Biggest Issue of the Campaign?

Economy

 

[jimmy.h]

I have not even met a single Obama supporter here in the US

You could probably have ended the post right there.

 

[Freo Big Fella]

Why is everyone giving Colorado to the Dems? Especially when the GOP have finally managed to dig up a credible Western moderate?

Not disputing, just curious.

 

[jimmy.h]

lol nice balanced view of things there.

Could you be saying you think McCain is old? Have you forgotten about the great man, Ronnie Reagan who was about as old as him when elected and re-elected and who turned out to be one of the best modern presidents the US has had.

I might give that map a go in a few days. The polls from here on in will be interesting. Will those Clinton supporters vote for McCain or was that just pre-nomination spin. Who knows.

I think the economy will be a huge factor, therefore McCain obviously needs to choose his VP wisely (ie: someone smart on the economy like uh, I dont know, Romney). But McCain will continue to get national security involved and perhaps do a better job than Hillary '3 am phone call' Clinton did. If Iraq continues to get better as it should, McCain will continually make Obama seem weak on national security etc..

Not sure who will win. I still dont know if conservative US can elect someone as leftist as Obama.

The biggest non-surprise will be the democrats playing the race card.

Predictions to come soon (although given my Aus election predictions, I wouldn't take much notice )

Meanwhile, in the real world ...

 

[jimmy.h]

Why is everyone giving Colorado to the Dems? Especially when the GOP have finally managed to dig up a credible Western moderate?

Not disputing, just curious.

Well they elected a Democrat Govenor in 06 by a big margin (a conservative on though), saw the democrats gain a House seat in 06 and a senate seat in 04. Both houses of their State Assesmbly have democrat majorities.

Obama's polling well there ATM which is a good sign given a South-Westerner is running against him.

The convention is in Denver which should be huge and attracted a fair bit of support from locals

 

[waspy]

Why is everyone giving Colorado to the Dems? Especially when the GOP have finally managed to dig up a credible Western moderate?

Not disputing, just curious.

Obama's been leading the polls there by around 5 points on average in the last couple of months. The next poll should show a unity bounce of maybe another 2-3 points. The convention in Denver wil have an all star lineup of speakers so unless it's a complete mess in terms of security or protests...it should provide another boost to the polls there. All other things being equal, it should be a 80% win chance for the Dems in November.

In terms of demographics, its fairly decent for the Democrats. Youngish population, a fair few hispanics, reasonably highly educated, fairly wealthy. Not many AA's, but that doesn't seem to matter in Oregon or Washington.

 

[fairdinkum]

I thought that the Dems were thought of as the 'blue team', and the Republicans the 'red team', so to speak?

 

[JW Frogen]

Why is everyone giving Colorado to the Dems? Especially when the GOP have finally managed to dig up a credible Western moderate?

Not disputing, just curious.

I was born in Colorado.

I think everyone is assuming the thin air and lack of oxygen is a Democratic advantage.

Thank God I got out quick.

 

[DaveW]

I thought that the Dems were thought of as the 'blue team', and the Republicans the 'red team', so to speak?

Yes. It's contrary to convention in its choice of colours.

http://uselectionatlas.org/note.html

A note about Red and Blue

Note, this site uses Blue for Republicans and Red for Democrats. I know that most media outlets have adopted the opposite color key in recent years. However, due to the sheer volume of maps on this site, changing them to match the media's recent color choices requires a significant investment in time. The colors are only a key to the candidates that win each state, county or municipality... there is no significance in the color representation for a given party.​

But of course it is in step with the rest of the world, which typically uses red for the political left, blue for the right.

 

[jo172]

Both parties have nominees. For the Republicans, it's Old Man McCain. For the Democrats, it's Barack Obama. You've seen them strutting their stuff on the big stage the last few months (though, in truth, it's more of doddery shuffle in McCain's case). You've witnessed the performance of their parties -- Bush and the Republicans are as popular as a carbuncle on your gearstick, while the Democrats are more popular (because at least they're not fricking Republicans).

So who's gonna win? By how much? Who are gonna be the VP selections? And what's gonna be the biggest surprise of the campaign? Let's see who can get closest to the pin.

I'll get the ball rolling...

VP Choices
Obama - Schweitzer
McCain - Pawlenty

With Edwards ruling himself out and Warner seemingly committed to the Virginia senate seat, I'm tipping Obama will select Brian Schweitzer, current Governor of Montana. After flirting with the idea of Alaska Governor Sarah Palin, McCain will select Tim Pawlenty as his running mate. Pawlenty is young and is the Republican Governor of a competitive state (Minnesota).

General Election Winner
Obama

Margin [Total Electoral College votes: 538. Needed to win: 270]
I'm probably wildly optimistic, but despite what current polling says, I think Obama wins this election BIG.

Obama 328
McCain 210

To calculate all the permutations and produce your own map, follow this link. [Thanks to DaveW who pointed me in this site's direction.]

I think Obama will retain all the states Kerry won in 04 -- getting over the line in close Kerry states such as Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania -- and will add key states such as Virginia, Colorado, Missouri, Iowa, and Indiana.

Biggest Surprise of the Campaign
Obama gets within five points in Texas.

Biggest Issue of the Campaign?
Will it be Iraq? Iran? McCain's continuing difficulty in distinguishing between Shia and Sunni? The economy? Global Warming? Hagee and Wright? Carbon dating revealing that McCain is older than Mt Rushmore? Electoral fraud? Media bias? Health care? Something else?

My guess: Economy (it trumps everything, even war)

My bad, didn't realise they had the colours backwards !

 

[jo172]

VP Choices
Obama - Bayh
McCain - Crist

Obama will choose a solid Clintonite who can attempt to boost numbers in unusually competitive states such as Indianna, Kansas etc. Also has executive experience. McCain will chose a younger, browner Republican Governor of a state he'll need to carry

General Election Winner
Obama

Margin [Total Electoral College votes: 538. Needed to win: 270]
Obama wins in a tight, close race with the electoral map looking quite different.

Obama 276
McCain 262

I think it will be quite an unusual map with record black turnout putting states like the Carolinas in the Obama column with alot of the traditional battlegrounds such as Pennyslyvania and Florida falling strongly in the McCain column due to admiration for his maverick status.

Biggest Surprise of the Campaign?
Hilary to unnoficially reject VP offer.

Biggest Issue of the Campaign?
Judicial appointments, morals, abortion, gay marriage. It will be fought on Republican terms. Also experience.

 

[Palmer Stoat]

Ok, I may have missed a massive piss take here but Hawaii Red and Alaska Blue?

The Red = Republican and Blue = Democrat convention is only a fairly recent one. The site with the electoral calculator has the colours reversed. So in the map Hawaii is Dem and Alaska is Republican.

EDIT: Didn't see DaveW's answer.

 

[DaveW]

I notice wikipedia has just recently gone and changed all their old maps.

Where previously it was Republican=navy blue, Democrats=red up until about the 1980s or 1990s, now it's Republican=red, Democrats=royal blue for all elections.

 

[Diesel_2000]

I think the number of battleground states in this year's election have been enourmously understated (ie. Green Depicting those states that are in play):

Reasons for the Larger Battleground Map

Wisconsin (10) - I'm tipping Obama to finish strongly in this state and win it 56-44. Has been included as a battleground by many pollsters, but any campaigning here by Republicans may be simply a diversion tactic. I'm tipping the Obama campaign will be well aware of the Republican's strategy, but will easily match it by pouring large resources into Wisconsin.

Montana (3) - Clinton carried this state back in 1992, and with an abundance of resources Obama could possibly flip this one to a Blue State. With a popular Democratic Governor and two Democratic Senators, there is strong local support for Obama. If there is a massive national swing on for Obama, this Western state could be a casualty for the Republicans.

Mississippi (6) - With a population that is 38% African-American, a strong voter turnout for the Democrats could put this state in Obama's column. Obama needs only to bring some of the white vote across to his side, a task John Kerry was unable to pull off in 2004. I'm tipping that there will be large field operation here to bring young people and minorities to the polls. This factor, along with the swinging Independents voters puts this state in play for Obama.

Arkansas (6) - This state remains loyal to the Clintons and had would have been one of the first states to be placed in Hillary's column (had she been the nominee). Polls show that Obama is currently trailing McCain by a large margin, but with Clinton on the ticket this state could be brought back to the Democrats. If Obama can bring Hillary onto the tickets and have her campaign strongly in Arkansas, then this state could be his (the consequence of this tactic is the possibility of not winning other states such as Virginia without Kaine or Webb on the ticket).

I will post further reasons why other states are in play soon.

 

[Mr Q]

(ie. Green Depicting those states that are in play):

Nah, don't think that many are in play. If they are, the Dems will win easily.

Of the lot you've got, I'd dispute Louisiana, Mississippi, Georgia and both Carolinas, Arkansas (with Obama standing), Montana, Indiana and North Dakota as being really "in play" unless the Dems are going to win huge. Maybe NC, but that's about it of that lot. And I think the Dems will be fairly safe in Wisconsin.

 

[jimmy.h]

I think the number of battleground states in this year's election have been enourmously understated (ie. Green Depicting those states that are in play):

I think there are a few in play but many (Nevada, New Mexico, New Hampshire, Montanna) aren't that important.

I don't think any of the South is really in play except Virgina. If a 'favourite son' so so speak were on the ticket maybe one other.

Ohio, Penn, Michigan, Virginia should be the key battles.