Analysis Player Effectiveness Going Inside 50 (Updated to Round 5)

[Munnez]

Great work digging up these stats.

Hunters stats are just as bad as Wallis’s and Wallis is usually under pressure with his disposal playing in the midfield.

Hunter on the other hand out on the wings usually has time and space and still makes a poor decision by foot or just bombs in high looping kicks which is dumb football.

Choosing the wrong option into F50 is also a problem we have that doesn’t show up on stats but I guess that’s a matter of opinion but gee I get pissed when we just bomb it long instead of lowering the eyes or kicking to space.

There's a novel option make it a pressured foot race inside the F50 instead of an opposition intercept mark if there is nothing to go to directly.
How many times do you see defenders leak goals in that situation if we get numbers forward and no clear possession

 

[bontshow]

Based on this where should McLean play?

 

[Munnez]

pretty easy to identify why we get scored easy on the rebound.
we are far too slow across the park. for-mid-def

we struggle to close down counter attacks. teams run off our players far too easy

We commit hard forward but then butcher the connecting kick forward, which leaves us chasing backsides and that never ends well

 

[Munnez]

Just confirmed that our current mix is a bit out of wack. A couple of hard in and unders players with poors skills Dunkley and Wallis. Dunkley I would throw back to defence to play the Dale Morris role and Wallis goes forward as a high pressure forward. Then we have Hunter an outside player with the same poor skills.

Time to bring in some good ball users from Footscray.

Lipinski and Lynch would fit the bill.
Interesting to see if Lippi gets a go this week

 

[Munnez]

Based on this where should McLean play?

High Half Forward with some minutes in the guts. Can be a good connector to the deep forwards can also kick some himself

 

[Johnny_Dogg4]

We commit hard forward but then butcher the connecting kick forward, which leaves us chasing backsides and that never ends well

i agree with that also. player positions are suspect
but if you closely watch us, when we are chasing we cannot gain ground on opposition. in contrast when we are running with ball in hand, we get closed down far too easily which results in panicked kicks under pressure. (Separation)

ive watched every team this year, and we are the slowest team in the comp. it hurts us both offensively and defensively.
another thing that hurts us is that we dont have any zibby players apart from daniel who are good in traffic i50.

 

[Munnez]

Could definitely do with some more zippy players to put on that inferred pressure that creates turnovers.
Like Cyril used to do in the Hawks team when they were up and about.
Is Cavarra a quick player?Hoping he can add some bite to our F50

 

[Yojimbo]

I doubt the intended (or even an acceptable) consequence of packing our defence with smalls with good disposal and foregoing a second ruck for an extra runner is a forward line that resembles a clogged toilet. There’s not much difference between movement and retention in the way I think you’re using the concepts though so it seems we’re agreeing furiously there, however I cant agree that it’s working as intended.

From a sparkly hidden forest to a clogged toilet, story of my life really. I hope you watched the Collingwood game
last night because there was a clear directive relating to their ball movement and behold a game over at three
quarter time containing multiple avenues to goal and angles of attack, I loved it and hope we can replicate it, but
it is hard to when you are on the backfoot constantly. A two page Stats thread, I am emotional thank you Waldo.

 

[WallyStringhaus]

Based on this where should McLean play?

Wing.

 

[Next Waiting]

Whilst watching the replays of games I like to take notes and collate some statistics that you don't find in your normal AFL sites. I thought I would share this one with you all as it is one of the key indicators of what is holding us back from being an elite team this season.

Footy really is a numbers and probability game. If you control the Contest and Clearance the more chance you have of sending the ball closer to your goals and further away from your opponents. The more possession you create and retain, the greater the chance of getting the ball Inside 50. The more Inside 50's you generate the more chances you have of Marking the ball Inside 50, which in-turn gives you the most reliable (usually!) chance of scoring a goal.

For a young side we are tipping the probability scales in our favour for most of these KPI's;

Contested Possession Differential: +19 (Ranked 6th)
Clearance Differential: +28 (1st)
Possessions: 1569 (3rd)
Inside 50's: 252 (1st), Differential +56 (1st)
Marks Inside 50: 51 (3rd)

What we are not seeing is a dominance on the scoreboard that reflects the dominance we are seeing around the ground.

I though I would look at each Forward 50 entry and find out which players were responsible for creating better scoring opportunities. The results are tabled below.

I have measured how many of each players kicks into the Forward 50 can be classified as effective and not effective.

What constitutes an effective kick inside 50;
*A kick that a WB player Marks Inside 50
*A kick that forces the opposition to give away a free to the marking WB player
*A kick that hits a leading player but the uncontested mark is dropped
*A kick that is a Goal from outside 50

View attachment 656248

Below is the table flipped with ineffective kicks highlighted.

What constitutes an ineffective kick:
*A kick that is directly marked by an opposition player
*A kick that goes out of bounds on the full causing a turnover
*A kick that does not favour either side

View attachment 656254

I'll allow you all to draw your own conclusions.

I'll endeavour to keep the table updated for those that are interested.

If find the second table QI. And within that table, the context in which the names of Macrae, Daniel and Dunkley appear. They are players who have gone I50 10 times or more and at least 25% (1/4) of those entries have been turned over directly to the opposition enabling what can be potentially a very damaging rebound.

Even Wallis and Hunter, for all their faults, only do this 11% of the time.

Libba and McLean present as the ones least likely to expose us on the rebound through errant kicking.

 

[Mattie2016]

Whilst watching the replays of games I like to take notes and collate some statistics that you don't find in your normal AFL sites. I thought I would share this one with you all as it is one of the key indicators of what is holding us back from being an elite team this season.

Footy really is a numbers and probability game. If you control the Contest and Clearance the more chance you have of sending the ball closer to your goals and further away from your opponents. The more possession you create and retain, the greater the chance of getting the ball Inside 50. The more Inside 50's you generate the more chances you have of Marking the ball Inside 50, which in-turn gives you the most reliable (usually!) chance of scoring a goal.

For a young side we are tipping the probability scales in our favour for most of these KPI's;

Contested Possession Differential: +19 (Ranked 6th)
Clearance Differential: +28 (1st)
Possessions: 1569 (3rd)
Inside 50's: 252 (1st), Differential +56 (1st)
Marks Inside 50: 51 (3rd)

What we are not seeing is a dominance on the scoreboard that reflects the dominance we are seeing around the ground.

I though I would look at each Forward 50 entry and find out which players were responsible for creating better scoring opportunities. The results are tabled below.

I have measured how many of each players kicks into the Forward 50 can be classified as effective and not effective.

What constitutes an effective kick inside 50;
*A kick that a WB player Marks Inside 50
*A kick that forces the opposition to give away a free to the marking WB player
*A kick that hits a leading player but the uncontested mark is dropped
*A kick that is a Goal from outside 50

View attachment 656248

Below is the table flipped with ineffective kicks highlighted.

What constitutes an ineffective kick:
*A kick that is directly marked by an opposition player
*A kick that goes out of bounds on the full causing a turnover
*A kick that does not favour either side

View attachment 656254

I'll allow you all to draw your own conclusions.

I'll endeavour to keep the table updated for those that are interested.

Best post. Thank you.

 

[WallyStringhaus]

Round 5 Update:



Aside from the debutants, Crozier was the most efficient this week with four effective kicks from five Inside 50's.

 

[Braybrook Son]

Bont and Crozier have been our most important players so far this year.

 

[TimlinOfficial]

Great thread. Motivated me to have a quick look at the numbers around the comp. Classic Dogs so far: