Politics Betting Thread

[Chism]

thought this was the punting thread not the conspiracy thread?

This and the next post that is not punting related is getting deleted and the offender is getting a thread ban regardless if you are replying to someone that may have quoted you etc.

Take it to other boards that are discussing the election and it is not like it is not being discussed anywhere!

 

[douglyzia]

I think there might be some value in Trump leaving office before 2020. With what's about to go down with Mueller this week these prices look pretty generous.
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I'd put money on NO if they gave us better odds.

 

[iluvparis]

I was a massive doubter back in 2016 but I think he is a rolled gold good thing this time around - especially if he ends up against Sanders.

$1.70 on Betfair... I am starting to step in.

 

[HeathySure]

I was a massive doubter back in 2016 but I think he is a rolled gold good thing this time around - especially if he ends up against Sanders.

$1.70 on Betfair... I am starting to step in.

this did not age well! hes $2.10 now and blowing like the wind. I hate him with a passion but if he gets out to something ridiculous because of this virus then it might be worth a bet. Election is a Lonnnnnnnnnnnnnng way away

 

[iluvparis]

this did not age well! hes $2.10 now and blowing like the wind. I hate him with a passion but if he gets out to something ridiculous because of this virus then it might be worth a bet. Election is a Lonnnnnnnnnnnnnng way away

Yeah i am just chipping away with a small amount each week - if he doesn't start fave on the day it probably means we are all dead anyway.

 

[NonPhixion]

I like Donald. He would be getting my vote if I was an American citizen. Hell of a lot better than this Scomo clown

 

[NYRB]

I like Donald. He would be getting my vote if I was an American citizen. Hell of a lot better than this Scomo clown

Think the US candidates Biden or Trump would make a good president. ScoMo not on their level.

 

[NYRB]

I really like Biden to win the 2020 Presidential campaign. As we speak now, Biden and Trump are neck and neck for the Presidential campaign, $2.24 each way on the Smarkets Betting Exchange.

 

[maskmcgee]

Politics is a gold mine.

I'd like to know the IQ of whoever assembled this market:



That's right, Trump to get 390 electoral votes or more is the favorite here. To do that Trump would need to win a 15% nominal nationwide popular vote margin.

In the absolute best possible Republican ever against the worst imaginable Democrat race I could get a Republican to exactly 390 electoral votes.

According to BetEasy, this is the most likely outcome.

As for the least likely outcome, $26, I can get Trump to 153 incredibly easily, without giving up Texas, and under 150 with some help from McMullin

You tell me, which one is more likely to happen?

Back to reality, Right now I'd have the race about here

You could get 2.40 on the Democrats a few weeks ago, which was always laughable given Trump's narrow path. Still like Biden to win $2.20.



This is the favorite for VP? After she almost ended his campaign by calling him a racist and listing his racist policies on the debate stage last year? Not a chance in hell Biden would select her. Take the equivalent $1.42 No option and buy a new car.

Trump to be the Republican nominee $1.10 is a certainty.

 

[anabac]

I thought the general rule was in times of uncertainty the people generally stick with the government that is in power. I certainly don't believe there is enough value to back either side in this election with the current global situation but my money would be on Donny

 

[iluvparis]

I thought the general rule was in times of uncertainty the people generally stick with the government that is in power. I certainly don't believe there is enough value to back either side in this election with the current global situation but my money would be on Donny

That is true unless the government being seen as contributing too/heightening the uncertainty. I think if the virus only lasts into-mid summer Donny should be able to weasel his way out of it and cruise to victory.

 

[54Dogs]

Trump has made some sensible comments in the last few days, which creates greater uncertainty

 

[IKnowtheDog]

Trump has made some sensible comments in the last few days, which creates greater uncertainty

You’re a funny guy 54

 

[Oraaaaazio]

Donny will get Covid-19 from shaking too many hands & his odds will sky rocket. Only a matter of time.

 

[mattwa]

Due to the impending arrests of the Clintons (Weiner laptop) and the taking down of the Global Pedophile and Child Trafficking ring (epstein, weinstein + more to come) I think Trump is a moral to get in. If you need more info look for the Q

 

[NYRB]

Does Trumps impeachment come into play? and the relation to the Ukraine case

 

[burge13]

Biden has dementia and can barely finish the sentence hes started. If he wins America are more lost than I thought. He clearly isnt fit for office.

 

[IKnowtheDog]

Biden has dementia and can barely finish the sentence hes started. If he wins America are more lost than I thought. He clearly isnt fit for office.

To be fair you could say the same about 45

 

[iluvparis]

Does Trumps impeachment come into play? and the relation to the Ukraine case

Nah seemed a complete wet blanket the public gave zero fks about

 

[maskmcgee]

Does Trumps impeachment come into play?

The result of it was him going from more than 10% behind Biden in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan to leading in every poll, and taking the lead nationally. That's when the Democrats went out o $2.40+. A very predictable outcome, in fact predicted exactly that would happen years ago.

 

[mattwa]

Does Trumps impeachment come into play? and the relation to the Ukraine case

He wasn't impeached? Pelosi never lodged the papers cause it was a load of crap. Ukraine was Biden with Hunter Biden Jo's crack head son being on the books of a big Ukrainian company

 

[54Dogs]

All the impeachment facade did was galvanise the Trump following

 

[Procrastinator35]

All the impeachment facade did was galvanise the Trump following

That's what it was intended for.

 

[HeathySure]

He wasn't impeached? Pelosi never lodged the papers cause it was a load of crap. Ukraine was Biden with Hunter Biden Jo's crack head son being on the books of a big Ukrainian company

he was impeached

 

[NYRB]

Trump signed a deal in the Senate, passing with a majority of 90 votes to 8. Free virus testing will be available to anyone, employees with companies with less than 500 people will be entitled to paid sickm, family and medical leave.

I think this Coronavirus could derail Trump. NPR reported that they knew there was a virus way back in January , yet delayed it not to derail Trumps presidential campaign. Ohio Senator Sherrod Brown

 

[NYRB]

Donald Trump with a speech tonight from the White House.

Under 8 Minutes= $3.95
8:00-12:29 minutes= $3.85
12:30-16:59 minutes=$3.85
17 minutes or over= $2.82

Length of Trump speech: Length of Trump speech will be measured from the moment Donald Trump starts speaking until either a second speaker starts speaking from the podium or Trump opens the floor to journalists' questions (whichever is earliest). If Donald Trump does not appear at the press conference, this market will be void.