Politics Betting Thread

[Chism]

thought this was the punting thread not the conspiracy thread?

This and the next post that is not punting related is getting deleted and the offender is getting a thread ban regardless if you are replying to someone that may have quoted you etc.

Take it to other boards that are discussing the election and it is not like it is not being discussed anywhere!

 

[iluvparis]

Biden the clear winner - in around 10c or so on the exchanges post debate.

Trump started on fire when he could talk over the top of Biden but once the moderator prevented that he struggled big time.

 

[maskmcgee]

Who decides who the winner is for these bets?

The CNN snap poll

Post-debate CNN poll: Six in 10 say Biden won the debate

Six in 10 debate watchers said former Vice President Joe Biden did the best job in Tuesday's debate, and just 28% say President Donald Trump did, according a CNN Poll of debate watchers conducted by SSRS.

edition.cnn.com

Biden 60%, Trump 28%, easy money.

 

[maskmcgee]

Also Biden opening 1.45 for the second debate. Feel free to pile money in.

Things like this is what makes politics so much more profitable than any other market. 99% of the results are certain regardless of how theoretically they could be decided either way.

 

[mouncey2franklin]

Thank you maskmcgee, I got on at $1.50 as mentioned in the AFL thread, easy money. Wish I had put more on it.

Is there a bet limit for this market? Might be time to make back some of the cash I've lost on football this season.

 

[maskmcgee]

Thank you maskmcgee, I got on at $1.50 as mentioned in the AFL thread, easy money. Wish I had put more on it.

Is there a bet limit for this market? Might be time to make back some of the cash I've lost on football this season.

Sportsbet's limit is 10,000$ on politics as I recall.

 

[maskmcgee]

Actually, Sportsbet's maximum payout is $25,000 on 'elections' and $10,000 on 'not mentioned in above Sport related market' events.
It's not really an election but it has '2020 election' in the name of the market.

 

[HeathySure]

Big fat donald has gone to hospital and they have treated him with experimental drugs... those who had a spec bet on Pence might be in for a big payday

 

[maskmcgee]

Well that debate can't possibly go ahead now. What if Biden, Trump, Pence and Harris all die from the virus before election day?

 

[maskmcgee]

Big fat donald has gone to hospital and they have treated him with experimental drugs... those who had a spec bet on Pence might be in for a big payday

Every election related market has been taken down.

 

[HeathySure]

Every election related market has been taken down.

i know.. god knows what the odds are going to be if he recovers when they come back up. This is thrown betting into chaos

 

[WWII]

Well that debate can't possibly go ahead now. What if Biden, Trump, Pence and Harris all die from the virus before election day?

I've only laid Trump, so I'd still be pretty happy tbh

 

[HeathySure]

I dont know if markets are back up but Trump is tanking badly according to fivethirtyeight (its gone from 25 percent chance of Trump winning to 17 percent chance). I think any price over $1.40 Biden winning is good value

2020 Election Forecast

Latest forecast of the 2020 presidential election between President Donald Trump and Joe Biden by Nate Silver’s FiveThirtyEight

projects.fivethirtyeight.com

 

[iluvparis]

I dont know if markets are back up but Trump is tanking badly according to fivethirtyeight (its gone from 25 percent chance of Trump winning to 17 percent chance). I think any price over $1.40 Biden winning is good value

2020 Election Forecast

Latest forecast of the 2020 presidential election between President Donald Trump and Joe Biden by Nate Silver’s FiveThirtyEight

projects.fivethirtyeight.com

He re opened at $1.61 on Betfair yesterday. Now into $1.52

 

[54Dogs]

Getting in to Hillary-esque odds

 

[iluvparis]

Getting in to Hillary-esque odds

Yeah will be interesting to see if the polls close up the same as they did last time.

Decision overnight to delay stimulus until after the election seems utter suicide to me.

 

[maskmcgee]

Democrats to win Maine (statewide), Maine's 1st and 2nd Congressional District Electoral College Votes $2 Biden
Democrats to win Maine (statewide), Republicans to win Maine's 2nd Congressional District Electoral College vote $3.60

Statewide: Biden +14.9%
2nd district: Biden +2.5%

Democrats to win Florida (4% lead), Nevada (6%), and Arizona (4%), Republicans to win Texas (2.5%) $2.63


Democrats to win Pennsylvania and Ohio $2.25
Democrats to win Pennsylvania and Republicans to win Ohio $2.25

Biden has a 7 point lead in Pennsylvania and Ohio is a dead heat so if you've got a big bankroll you can guarantee a win

Some of these markets are laughable though

Republicans to win any of: Delaware, Connecticut, Rhode Island, Massachusetts, Washington DC, Maryland or Vermont
$41.00

Republicans to win Hawaii, Democrats to win Alaksa
$23.00

To win all 538 electoral votes: Biden $67, Trump $151

Odds on any of those could be 250 Billion to one and I wouldn't put a cent on them.

 

[Saint]

Democrats to win Maine (statewide), Maine's 1st and 2nd Congressional District Electoral College Votes $2 Biden
Democrats to win Maine (statewide), Republicans to win Maine's 2nd Congressional District Electoral College vote $3.60

Statewide: Biden +14.9%
2nd district: Biden +2.5%

Democrats to win Florida (4% lead), Nevada (6%), and Arizona (4%), Republicans to win Texas (2.5%) $2.63


Democrats to win Pennsylvania and Ohio $2.25
Democrats to win Pennsylvania and Republicans to win Ohio $2.25

Biden has a 7 point lead in Pennsylvania and Ohio is a dead heat so if you've got a big bankroll you can guarantee a win

Some of these markets are laughable though

Republicans to win any of: Delaware, Connecticut, Rhode Island, Massachusetts, Washington DC, Maryland or Vermont
$41.00

Republicans to win Hawaii, Democrats to win Alaksa
$23.00

To win all 538 electoral votes: Biden $67, Trump $151

Odds on any of those could be 250 Billion to one and I wouldn't put a cent on them.

Betting on the lunatics of Pennsylvania and Ohio is madness. But I suppose it's a two-horse race. I predicted they would go Trump last election, but would never bet on those backwater morons.


I have a theory that Trump is going to resign when/if he loses the election. He absolutely doesn't seem like the kind of person who will go through with a Lame Duck period. He doesn't actually care about Governing and he certainly won't want to stick around after all his GOP congress (who are left) turn on him because he is so toxic to them, none will be able to be seen as on his side, even while he's still in the White House.

Combine that with his support base being unhinged and likely to do stupid stuff. He also doesn't care about those supporters, he thinks they're scum. He won't want to deal with any of that, just like COVID, and he won't have any support in congress either. EVERYONE in Washington, even those most supporting him will abandon him. A handful of the really shameless ones like McConnell will still want him there getting judges appointed, but he'll probably retire before his next election too.

So Trump resigns and moves back to Trump Tower will be out the door by December, Mike Pence gets sworn in as President.

So what I want to know is, does anyone know where I can bet on the next POTUS being Mike Pence? I can only find election result betting.

 

[HeathySure]

Betting on the lunatics of Pennsylvania and Ohio is madness. But I suppose it's a two-horse race. I predicted they would go Trump last election, but would never bet on those backwater morons.


I have a theory that Trump is going to resign when/if he loses the election. He absolutely doesn't seem like the kind of person who will go through with a Lame Duck period. He doesn't actually care about Governing and he certainly won't want to stick around after all his GOP congress (who are left) turn on him because he is so toxic to them, none will be able to be seen as on his side, even while he's still in the White House.

Combine that with his support base being unhinged and likely to do stupid stuff. He also doesn't care about those supporters, he thinks they're scum. H.e won't want to deal with any of that, just like COVID, and he won't have any support in congress either. EVERYONE in Washington, even those most supporting him will abandon him. A handful of the really shameless ones like McConnell will still want him there getting judges appointed, but he'll probably retire before his next election too.

So Trump resigns and moves back to Trump Tower will be out the door by December, Mike Pence gets sworn in as President.

So what I want to know is, does anyone know where I can bet on the next POTUS being Mike Pence? I can only find election result betting.

Betfair . Pence is currently 790 to 1!
And there is $257 million in the pool. Wow!

 

[checkraiseulite]

seems trump is shortening again - was $3.90 a week or two ago - back to $2.48

 

[iluvparis]

Im looking at bets on Biden to win 400+ electoral college votes - if he does win I think it will be an absolute slaughter.

 

[checkraiseulite]

will be very interesting how this pans out.

on a stats/polling basis everything is pointing towards biden and plenty of people on other forums i follow are going all in on him.

will be incredible if trump can defy the polls and coverage (which to an extent may also be helping him amongst undecided) and snatch another term. will be the death knell for polling if he does.

 

[Saint]

Betfair . Pence is currently 790 to 1!
And there is $257 million in the pool. Wow!

Considering Trump is likely still infected with a deadly virus, obese and very unhealthy, plus my theory. I've put $10 on it and got 830-1.

I put $5 on Pelosi at 1000-1 just in case Pence says no for whatever reason.

might help with the Biden payouts I suppose!

 

[tombomb]

These are a few state by state numbers as of October 18 (2016 compared to 2020) from RCP. Trump won all these states in 2016.

All, except NC which is the same, are polling more favourably to Trump than they were at the same time in 2016.

Penn - Clinton +6.8 - Biden +4.4
Wis - Clinton +7 - Biden +6.1
Florida - Clinton +3.8 - Biden +1.4
Mich - Clinton +11.6 - Biden +7.2
NC - Clinton +2.7 - Biden +2.7
Ohio - Clinton +0.2 - Trump +0.5

I dunno how anyone could be confident about any result in this election. The shy Trump voter theory could be complete nonsense or totally decisive.

 

[checkraiseulite]

republicans are $3.45/3.65 on betfair to win michigan.

wisconsin shaping up as very interesting too. dems $1.44 and republicans $3.25/$3.6.

 

[HeathySure]

These are a few state by state numbers as of October 18 (2016 compared to 2020) from RCP. Trump won all these states in 2016.

All, except NC which is the same, are polling more favourably to Trump than they were at the same time in 2016.

Penn - Clinton +6.8 - Biden +4.4
Wis - Clinton +7 - Biden +6.1
Florida - Clinton +3.8 - Biden +1.4
Mich - Clinton +11.6 - Biden +7.2
NC - Clinton +2.7 - Biden +2.7
Ohio - Clinton +0.2 - Trump +0.5

I dunno how anyone could be confident about any result in this election. The shy Trump voter theory could be complete nonsense or totally decisive.

FivethirtyEight are now giving Trump only a 12 percent chance of winning the election after it being 25 percent a couple of weeks ago and this time 4 years ago.
Rick Wilson (ex Republican election strategist) is very conservative in his predictions. He says Trump has to be at least 10 points in front in Florida to win that state but he is becoming increasingly confident Biden will win. Seriously Bidens price is huge overs.