Port Adelaide. The real deal or pretenders?

[Mr Meow]

Port will be fine and this is a crazy bump by a Crows supporter after 1 loss to a form side after going 13 in a row, but this talk about Port being heavily depleted is annoying.
They're in 2nd place. They should be able to handle a few outs, but it also ignores the players missing for Carlton.
Pittonet - our number 1 ruck
Williams
Kennedy
Young - was our number 2 defender last year
And solid role players in Durdin, Fisher and Owies, while also losing McKay in the first quarter and not having a tactical sub for late in the game.

Port should make some noise in finals and are probably one of three, maybe four genuine contenders.

Maybe you're right. Of the 7 changes, 3 were omissions. 7 in any case is just a big red flag when it comes to maintaining cohesion. Sides without great depth will still struggle without their main lockdown defender, a key forward (Dixon still does a lot of dirty work), bull midfielder and preferred forward goal sneak.

Without looking too deep into it, they've won a few close ones and not had many injuries this season so it doesn't take too much to tip the balance.

 

[Crusty Demon]

We lose one player and the difference is enormous (Lewis 6 or 7 weeks at the start of the year, Sicily the last month). To lose as many as Port did all at once would take some time to adjust to.

Next week is the game which tells us where the top 2 are at.

Yes and no. I think the only chance of Port winning the flag this year is if the Lions somehow make it through. I can't see Port beating Pies, Cats or Dees at the G on GF day.

 

[Mr Meow]

We lose one player and the difference is enormous (Lewis 6 or 7 weeks at the start of the year, Sicily the last month). To lose as many as Port did all at once would take some time to adjust to.

Next week is the game which tells us where the top 2 are at.

Exactly.

Geelong struggle with the simple removal of a very old, banged up Dangerfield and fellow veteran Duncan. We've gone 8-1-1 with them both in the side and 1-6 if one or both was missing. As soon as those two are back in - Atkins, Blicavs and Holmes find their mojo again. Pretty similar to our forward line looking a bit flat before Stengle and Rohan returned, or the defence before De Koning and Henry were back there.

Obviously you need to have a good side to be a contender. But beyond that injuries and the timing of those injuries play a huge role. Geelong had a blessed run last year and it showed come finals time.

 

[TheKanga]

Think they will get found out in the finals.

 

[Crusty Demon]

Exactly.

Geelong struggle with the simple removal of a very old, banged up Dangerfield and fellow veteran Duncan. We've gone 8-1-1 with them both in the side and 1-6 if one or both was missing. As soon as those two are back in - Atkins, Blicavs and Holmes find their mojo again. Pretty similar to our forward line looking a bit flat before Stengle and Rohan returned, or the defence before De Koning and Henry were back there.

Obviously you need to have a good side to be a contender. But beyond that injuries and the timing of those injuries play a huge role. Geelong had a blessed run last year and it showed come finals time.

Cats have to find a way into the Top 4. How many sides have won it from outside the 4? One? Two maybe? Not saying they can't do it, but it becomes a monumental task from outside the top 4. 3 of the 4 top 4 sides are vulnerable though. So who knows. Cats timing their run pretty well, but might just pull up short of top 4

 

[GhostofJimJess]

2 loses have come against other top 4 teams, 1 of them at the G

Pies cake walking the premiership is far from a certainty

I hope you're right - Port are very watchable when they're on their game.

But the Pies have been playing finals footy all season. Big crowds, win at all costs mentality in every game, and probably best of all their matches are getting umpired in that "they've put the whistles away" manner nearly every week.

I would be astounded if Collingwood didn't win it this year. I haven't seen a bigger certainty since Essendon in 2000.

 

[RAPPA]

They just need to do enough to maintain 2nd spot. I feel as if the Lions have a tougher run home than the Dees so Port could prob afford to drop another 2 games and still hold onto 2nd spot.

 

[Mr Meow]

Cats have to find a way into the Top 4. How many sides have won it from outside the 4? One? Two maybe? Not saying they can't do it, but it becomes a monumental task from outside the top 4. 3 of the 4 top 4 sides are vulnerable though. So who knows. Cats timing their run pretty well, but might just pull up short of top 4

In the current format, since the pre-finals bye was introduced in 2016 there's only been one premier from outside the top 4, but two others that made it to the grand final. In each case the sides had less pedigree than this Geelong side, unless you count the '21 Bulldogs because a handful of them played in the '16 premiership.

Over that time period a premier has only finished 5th-8th the following year once - West Coast in 2019. They only made it to the semis. So we don't exactly have a lot of data on this scenario.

 

[Taper]

I hope you're right - Port are very watchable when they're on their game.

But the Pies have been playing finals footy all season. Big crowds, win at all costs mentality in every game, and probably best of all their matches are getting umpired in that "they've put the whistles away" manner nearly every week.

I would be astounded if Collingwood didn't win it this year. I haven't seen a bigger certainty since Essendon in 2000.

Collingwood in 2011 were a far better team and they didn't win the flag.

 

[Kobe Gryant]

Collingwood in 2011 were a far better team and they didn't win the flag.

It's BigFooty. As good as the Pies are, people calling them outlandish favourites are just trying to put all the pressure on them so they can troll Collingwood supporters all off-season if they fail.

We saw similar with Geelong last year. Each team's supporter base is a better gauge on the where they think they are.

 

[Taper]

It's BigFooty. As good as the Pies are, people calling them outlandish favourites are just trying to put all the pressure on them so they can troll Collingwood supporters all off-season if they fail.

We saw similar with Geelong last year. Each team's supporter base is a better gauge on the where they think they are.

I've seen lots of people saying Collingwood won't win the flag because they're finals chokers. People said the same thing about us last year.
We were finals chokers until we weren't.
If Collingwood fall short this year it won't be because of Colliwobbles.

 

[Crusty Demon]

It's BigFooty. As good as the Pies are, people calling them outlandish favourites are just trying to put all the pressure on them so they can troll Collingwood supporters all off-season if they fail.

We saw similar with Geelong last year. Each team's supporter base is a better gauge on the where they think they are.

I can't remember a season where there is literally one team so far and above every other. I don't care if you think it's BigFooty heaping pressure on them, they should be winning the 2023 flag and it would be a wasted season if they don't.

 

[HairyO]

I hope you're right - Port are very watchable when they're on their game.

But the Pies have been playing finals footy all season. Big crowds, win at all costs mentality in every game, and probably best of all their matches are getting umpired in that "they've put the whistles away" manner nearly every week.

I would be astounded if Collingwood didn't win it this year. I haven't seen a bigger certainty since Essendon in 2000.

2001 was a certainty for the Bombers too.
2008 for the Cats.

 

[GhostofJimJess]

2001 was a certainty for the Bombers too.
2008 for the Cats.

And 2018 for the Tigers too ... I get your point. Stuff happens, and Collingwood won't be immune. But on the balance of probabilities, I'm convinced they'll be unbeaten in the finals series.

 

[Rich01]

Collingwood in 2011 were a far better team and they didn't win the flag.

Yep, much better side relative to the rest of the comp.

This year the crop of sides 5-12 are more even but flakey. And the contenders to Collingwood in spots 2-4 all have massive question marks on them.

Collingwood should just blow them all away, but a contender could come in and steal a flag this year and I wouldn’t be surprised.

It makes for an interesting finals series but I don’t think the quality of the comp is there this year.

 

[Kobe Gryant]

I can't remember a season where there is literally one team so far and above every other. I don't care if you think it's BigFooty heaping pressure on them, they should be winning the 2023 flag and it would be a wasted season if they don't.

It'll be a wasted season no doubt, but we're not witnessing something unforeseen here.

Richmond 2018 and Geelong 2022 were both further ahead of the chasing pack, people have got unbelievably short memories on here. Collingwood 2010-11 and Geelong 2008 if you want to go back further.

Collingwood are the best team in it, no doubt...and all things being equal they should win the flag, but better sides than them have lost it from here.

 

[ibd77]

Not a contender anymore. Good luck Dee's, Cats, Lions & Doggies.

Sent from my SM-G781B using Tapatalk

 

[Schulzenfest]

Not a contender anymore. Good luck Dee's, Cats, Lions & Doggies.

Sent from my SM-G781B using Tapatalk

We're better than all of those teams. Especially the wildly overrated Cats.

Unfortunately being better than those teams isn't enough to win us a flag, so the OP's question still stands.

 

[Blue1980]

Collingwood in 2011 were a far better team and they didn't win the flag.

Geelong 2008, st kilda 2009.

 

[Blue1980]

I've seen lots of people saying Collingwood won't win the flag because they're finals chokers. People said the same thing about us last year.
We were finals chokers until we weren't.
If Collingwood fall short this year it won't be because of Colliwobbles.

It’s always said. Richmond were finals chokers until they weren’t.

Way back in 95 it was said we would choke cos of 93 and 94.

 

[Blue1980]

I can't remember a season where there is literally one team so far and above every other. I don't care if you think it's BigFooty heaping pressure on them, they should be winning the 2023 flag and it would be a wasted season if they don't.

Geelong 2008, only lost 1 game before the GF all year, and lost the GF.

They were generally obliterating sides too, much more dominant than pies.

Pies probably better in close games than any side I’ve ever seen though.

 

[My Tilly]

We're better than all of those teams. Especially the wildly overrated Cats.

Unfortunately being better than those teams isn't enough to win us a flag, so the OP's question still stands.

Won the flag last year so you expect us to be underrated?

I think reality is setting in for Port.
Falling back to the pack.
Next week will be a rippa. The showdown always delivers.

 

[YeoShuey]

Imagine wanting the Cats to win. Yuck.

 

[PizzaPie]

Port Adelaide might be 2nd on the ladder and undefeated vs. 3rd and 4th, but last night's match showed just how far off the top side Port Adelaide is. If all it takes for the top of the ladder side to beat Port Adelaide is to be losing by less than a goal with a few minutes to go, marking a ball that was 1cm away from being out of bounds on the full, kicking a goal from 50 out on the boundary line in the wet, then defending a lead with a bit of umpiring luck thrown in, they are pretenders.

 

[Papa G]

Port are pretenders. Direct reflection of their loser coach.

A non Vic team has to be atleast a 5 goal better team to win the Grand Final. And Port certainly aren't that. Won't even make the GF.