List Mgmt. Premiership window - list age profile

[Ugene41]

With a premiership now in the bag, and proof that Naicos is a geniune superstar whose game holds up in the big finals, I'm hoping we have the basis to create a geniune Pies dynasty era. A lot is made out about our list profile and how "old" by average age it is and how we might fall off the cliff. I think with the right trades/FA to complement, we can maximise the return we get from having a once in a lifetime Naicos on our list for the next 10+ years.

I've categorised our players by 3 year age cohorts and whether they are top tier (ie previous AA quality, top 5 BnF, Brownlows, Norm Smiths etc) or role players.

Age cohorts as at start of next season

Vintage (33+) - expect 5-10 big games (ideally in finals): Top tier (Pendles, Sidey, Howe), Role players (Cox)

Veterans (30-32) - expect 10-15 big games: Top tier (Crisp, Mitchell, Adams), Role players (Mihocek, Elliott, WHE)

Prime (27-29) - expect 15-20 big games: Top tier (JDG, Moore, Maynard), Role players (McStay, Cameron, Markov, Frampton)

Improving (24-26) - expect 10-15 big games: Top tier (Jaicos, Hill, IQ), Role players (Murphy, Lipinski, Noble, Johnson)

Breakouts (21-23) - expect 5-10 big games: Top tier (Naicos), Role players (McCreery, Ginnivan, Reef, Macrae)

Looking at this, you'd expect we'd still be right in the window for another 1-2 years whilst these age cohorts remain relatively unchanged. By end of 2025 though, as the current Vintage crop retires and our current Prime group becomes veterans (ie JDG, Moore, Maynard), you'd probably expect a drop off.

At that stage it might not be a bad idea to do a mini rebuild in the 2025/26 drafts post North priority pick compromised drafts and just before the Tasmanian team comes in to try find a couple more top tier draft talent to complement Naicos as he moves into his prime years. Similarly, that would be the time to go big on a gun 27 year old free agent to complement the (Jaicos, Hill, IQ) cohort which is weaker than our current Peak group of JDG/Moore/Maynard.

As to what to do right now, given our limited draft capital I'd see whether we can package up picks to try get a higher first round pick to have a better shot at a top tier talent or target more Hill type high upside F2 trades (e.g. Denver Grainger-Barass), or top up with FA veterans for free for the next 1-2 years. The key thing will be really trying to develop the McCreery/Ginnivan/Reef/Macrae/Allan/Ryan and hope a couple can become top tier quality like IQ and Hill have become.

 

[Timmy from Thomastown]

Agree with that….. we have many approaching or passing 30 who are just role players and with careful list management are easily replaceable.

The short term key to our success and transition to a 2024 and beyond list Are our VFL players and how they perform with more opportunities afforded them….. in no particular order, Ryan, Allan, Johnson, McInnes, Kreuger, macrae, Carmichael, Dean and Harrison. Pretty good list there even if half of them succeed.

 

[Cousin of Daicos]

Inevitably when a side wins a flag, talk often moves to talk of back to back and dynasties.

I really hope most Collingwood supporters don't get carried away with that this time around (haven't seen much so far). We were the second oldest team in the comp this year and you only need to look at 2022 Geelong to see how quickly being old can come for you and come hard.

I'm not super confident of going back to back mostly due to quite frankly being unsure of how the club will manage the older segment of the list. I don't think the 26 or so that played the majority of games this year is quite strong enough to go back to back against the sides who will no doubt be stronger next year. GWS in particular, who at this early stage is my tip for next year's flag.

I'm well aware the vast majority here will disagree (probably in a pretty rude and indignant way to boot) but my personal hope is that Wrighty and Fly have the gumption to really manage the older players through and even use them to create the ultimate depth to have a real tilt at it next season.

As an example (again, just a hypothetical example, I don't expect this or anything so don't bite my head off):

- Fly and Wrighty approach Pendles, Steele, Mihocek and Howe and have a frank discussion about the long term future of the club and a roadmap for how to we plan to stay up with blend of youth, trade and senior player management

- They let the boys know that now that they have their premiership glory in their twilight years, they want all 4 to become "on field development coaches" for the VFL squad while their bodies not only remain fresh playing in the VFL, but add their class and experience to the VFL team improving that side's performance also. They basically become the ultimate depth. Imagine Ed Allan having a breakout year, getting injured at some point in the season and your depth to come in is...Scott Pendlebury

10

Scott Pendlebury

Age

36

Ht

191cm

Wt

86kg

Pos.

Mid

Career

Season

Last 5

D

26.5

5star

K

13.2

5star

HB

13.3

5star

M

4.1

4star

T

4.9

5star

CL

4.9

5star

D

25.1

5star

K

12.3

5star

HB

12.9

5star

M

3.4

3star

T

2.3

3star

CL

3.6

4star

D

12.4

4star

K

7.6

3star

HB

4.8

4star

M

5.8

5star

T

2.6

4star

- The successors need to start forcing their way in. Kreuger needs to force out Mihocek, Dean needs to force out Howe, Macrae and Allan need to be forcing out Pendles and Steele, Reef should be forcing out Elliott etc. etc.

Now obviously all of the above depends a lot on the players from underneath actually performing to a level that justifies their inclusion. But I feel like we need to be wary of keeping these players motivated and keeping the side fresh enough, young enough and fast enough to keep up next year. It's also clearly dependent on how the older players actually perform next year. Does the flag energise them? Does father time catch up with them? Who the hell knows.


Many will see this as a "negative" post but that's not the intention. Just trying to keep as level a head as possible in a time when it's very easy to get carried away with how good we are right now. But history is littered with Premiers who got carried away and didn't even make finals the year after, let alone go back to back.

For now, could we package up our first two picks in the draft to a club who needs points to get a little higher?

 

[danielnajdek]

I'm sure we are already planning to build around Nick once the older guys retire. It makes it harder with Tassie coming into the comp though.

 

[Ingy]

Our problem is definitely that four of our best six players in the grand final were 35, 33, 32 and 30.

If we don't prioritise getting some of Ryan, Allan, Macrae, Bianco up to AFL standard through exposure then we will not compete with GWS next finals series.

 

[Ugene41]

I'm sure we are already planning to build around Nick once the older guys retire. It makes it harder with Tassie coming into the comp though.

Yea which is why it might be worth trying to time a mini rebuild in 25/26 before Tassie comes in 2028 and try get at least 2x top 10 picks in over those two years. Potentially even look at trading out one of our better players if they can attract a first round pick in those years and then rebuy back into that age group when we are contending again from 2027 onwards.

 

[Ugene41]

Our problem is definitely that four of our best six players in the grand final were 35, 33, 32 and 30.

If we don't prioritise getting some of Ryan, Allan, Macrae, Bianco up to AFL standard through exposure then we will not compete with GWS next finals series.

I don't think there's a problem with that. The point of having those 35, 33, 32 and 30 year olds is that they can step up in those big games and moments. They weren't the ones doing the heavy lifting during the season which was primarily driven by the 24-30 year old group.

In 2027, you'd hope that a 34 year old Mitchell and 33 year old Crisp, 32 year old JDG would step up in a GF and help us win the game whilst the Daicos boys, IQ, Hill etc does the heavy lifting during the season to get us to that stage.

 

[Ingy]

I don't think there's a problem with that. The point of having those 35, 33, 32 and 30 year olds is that they can step up in those big games and moments. They weren't the ones doing the heavy lifting during the season which was primarily driven by the 24-30 year old group.

In 2027, you'd hope that a 34 year old Mitchell and 33 year old Crisp, 32 year old JDG would step up in a GF and help us win the game whilst the Daicos boys, IQ, Hill etc does the heavy lifting during the season to get us to that stage.

You are asking a lot of a 34 year old Mitchell.

Pendles is the exception, not the rule.

Voss retired at 28.

And even Pendles is going to have to succumb to Father Time eventually. I fear it will be in the next 12 months and he won't have the capacity to step up in the finals, even if he hasn't done the heavy lifting through the season (he won't possibly be able to).

Too many of the players that stood up on GF day were in a bracket where their best game is probably behind them. As is often said, the end comes quickly. It's a problem

 

[Jen2310]

I don't think there's a problem with that. The point of having those 35, 33, 32 and 30 year olds is that they can step up in those big games and moments. They weren't the ones doing the heavy lifting during the season which was primarily driven by the 24-30 year old group.

In 2027, you'd hope that a 34 year old Mitchell and 33 year old Crisp, 32 year old JDG would step up in a GF and help us win the game whilst the Daicos boys, IQ, Hill etc does the heavy lifting during the season to get us to that stage.

Cute you think Mitchell will be around in 2027. Reckon he retires end of his contract in 2025. Kids should be overtaking him in the next 12 months.

Same goes for crisp before the end of his contract.

 

[Ugene41]

You are asking a lot of a 34 year old Mitchell.

Pendles is the exception, not the rule.

Voss retired at 28.

And even Pendles is going to have to succumb to Father Time eventually. I fear it will be in the next 12 months and he won't have the capacity to step up in the finals, even if he hasn't done the heavy lifting through the season (he won't possibly be able to).

Too many of the players that stood up on GF day were in a bracket where their best game is probably behind them. As is often said, the end comes quickly. It's a problem

Michael Voss retired at 31 btw. I think you might be thinking about Brett Voss.

Mitchell is an example. I had another thread which lauded how the new regime has been able to extend the longevity of our veterans. Previously Pies seemed to retire all our players by 30-32. The most successful clubs are able to extract another 2-3 years from their top tier veterans which make a world of difference.

Pendles is a freak of course and he can go till he's 37-38. But I'd like to see other durable top tier veterans like Crisp, Sidebottom, Mitchell etc aim for 34 and continue providing that leadership and standard.

 

[Ingy]

Michael Voss retired at 31 btw. I think you might be thinking about Brett Voss.

Mitchell is an example. I had another thread which lauded how the new regime has been able to extend the longevity of our veterans. Previously Pies seemed to retire all our players by 30-32. The most successful clubs are able to extract another 2-3 years from their top tier veterans which make a world of difference.

Pendles is a freak of course and he can go till he's 37-38. But I'd like to see other durable top tier veterans like Crisp, Sidebottom, Mitchell etc aim for 34 and continue providing that leadership and standard.

I genuinely hope that your projections don't turn out to be wildly optimistic

 

[sr36]

Our problem is definitely that four of our best six players in the grand final were 35, 33, 32 and 30.

If we don't prioritise getting some of Ryan, Allan, Macrae, Bianco up to AFL standard through exposure then we will not compete with GWS next finals series.

A year is a long way out to be calling GWS. They had a good back half of the year. But making a run that late puts you at an advantage as your game plan and strengths and weaknesses haven't been as targetted.

 

[Ugene41]

I genuinely hope that your projections don't turn out to be wildly optimistic

I think there's definitely players that have proven to be more durable who have the ability to do it whilst there's others like Adams/Elliott that have at best 1-2 years left due to mounting soft tissue/historical injuries etc.

Apart from his leg break, Mitchell has consistently played 20+ games each season. Crisp will probably be continuing his consecutive games streak till 300 games! Like Isaac Smith, his running game can easily see him impact till he's 34.

 

[Ingy]

A year is a long way out to be calling GWS. They had a good back half of the year. But making a run that late puts you at an advantage as your game plan and strengths and weaknesses haven't been as targetted.

This was said about us last year mate

 

[AppleMagnets]

TBA on both Howe and Elliott, wouldn’t blame them in the slightest that they hang it up.

Johnson has loads of potential (early Howe?) Adams, Noble, Mcstay and a ton of kids good depth.

Tbh I see this more of Geelong’s last hurrah but happy to be wrong in the future.

We may have enough for another quality player added on. Don’t know anything about Bailey Smith

6

Bailey Smith

Age

23

Ht

185cm

Wt

86kg

Pos.

M/F

Career

Season

Last 5

D

18.3

5star

K

8.5

3star

HB

9.8

5star

M

2.3

2star

T

3.8

5star

CL

2.7

4star

D

19.8

5star

K

9.6

4star

HB

10.2

5star

M

1.8

2star

T

3.2

4star

CL

3.2

4star

D

14.8

4star

K

7.6

3star

HB

7.2

5star

M

2.0

3star

T

3.4

5star

CL

1.6

4star

’s situation but it’s crazy Bevo, and he’s a jet

Get him!

 

[Ugene41]

Cute you think Mitchell will be around in 2027. Reckon he retires end of his contract in 2025. Kids should be overtaking him in the next 12 months.

Same goes for crisp before the end of his contract.

Why can't the kids play with the veterans? How good has it been to have Nick play and learn from Pendles, Josh play on the opposite wing to Sidey?

I want Macrae to get as many games as possible next year but there's no reason he shouldn't learn from Mitchell and there's no way he can overtake and provide the same impact as Mitchell in 12 months time.

We're not going to be as lucky as we have been this year with midfield injuries.

 

[Jen2310]

Why can't the kids play with the veterans? How good has it been to have Nick play and learn from Pendles, Josh play on the opposite wing to Sidey?

I want Macrae to get as many games as possible next year but there's no reason he shouldn't learn from Mitchell and there's no way he can overtake and provide the same impact as Mitchell in 12 months time.

We're not going to be as lucky as we have been this year with midfield injuries.

And they will, in the next 12 months, but there will come a time when the kids will have to learn to survive without training wheels. By Macrae learning from Mitchell, you'll need to have them both out there. Is that possible? Can they play together?

 

[sr36]

This was said about us last year mate

Yeah but so too has flag declarations for many teams who finished a year strongly and appeared on the rise, but didn't back it up.

I rate GWS, just think it's a premature call. I think Brisbane and Carlton have the best lists and Brisbane will improve there list and Carlton came home just as hard as GWS . And I can't see us dropping off. And if Sydney and Port add a ruck and KPD - look out for them. Then there will be a team who noone was expecting - like us last year and GWS this year. It'll be wide open again.

 

[Scritchyscroony]

Cute you think Mitchell will be around in 2027. Reckon he retires end of his contract in 2025. Kids should be overtaking him in the next 12 months.

Same goes for crisp before the end of his contract.

I'd back in Crispy to see out his contract He's a super athlete and a bit of a freak. He has had the least injuries of any player in the comp at his age. His body would be effectively "younger" than a lot of 27 year olds as a result.

 

[Ingy]

I'd back in Crispy to see out his contract He's a super athlete and a bit of a freak. He has had the least injuries of any player in the comp at his age. His body would be effectively "younger" than a lot of 27 year olds as a result.

I'm not ready to give Crispy up to Father Time just yet.

But Pendles, Sidey, Howe and to some extent Mitchell must all hear Time's winged chariot hurrying near

 

[Cousin of Daicos]

Our problem is definitely that four of our best six players in the grand final were 35, 33, 32 and 30.

If we don't prioritise getting some of Ryan, Allan, Macrae, Bianco up to AFL standard through exposure then we will not compete with GWS next finals series.

Yep

GWS are my flag tip for next year. Reckon they'll be unstoppable

We need to get the succession plan going asap for 2024. Kreuger, Allan, Macrae, McInnes and Dean all need to be making their way into the side.

 

[Jen2310]

I'd back in Crispy to see out his contract He's a super athlete and a bit of a freak. He has had the least injuries of any player in the comp at his age. His body would be effectively "younger" than a lot of 27 year olds as a result.

Oh for sure, He'll see out his contract 100% I didnt mean to imply he wouldn't, but we need to see more youth coming through next year and 2025.

 

[Scritchyscroony]

I'm not ready to give Crispy up to Father Time just yet.

But Pendles, Sidey, Howe and to some extent Mitchell must all hear Time's winged chariot hurrying near

We better hope we kill it in free agency through 2024-2026.

 

[WakeUpPies]

It wouldn’t be the worst thing ever to have a couple of eventual down years. No team stays on top for ever and attempts often result in being stuck on the mediocrity treadmill where you’re not good enough to compete and your picks are not good enough to snag low risk elite talents.

We wouldn’t have Pendles if not for that abysmal 2005 season.

 

[Jelly Bean]

It wouldn’t be the worst thing ever to have a couple of eventual down years. No team stays on top for ever and attempts often result in being stuck on the mediocrity treadmill where you’re not good enough to compete and your picks are not good enough to snag low risk elite talents.

We wouldn’t have Pendles if not for that abysmal 2005 season.

We probably would have - it is Thomas that we wouldn't have had. We'd have still had pick 4 in the draft.