Preview Rd 14 - Carlton v GWS Sat June 19 7.25pm @ Giants Stadium

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esoteric

All Australian
Sep 11, 2008
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Carlton



Form line:

Carlton is coming off the bye (more on that below), after a worse-than-expected 4-8 start to season 2021. That said, Collingwood was the only game dropped which shouldn't have been. The Giants ran Richmond to four points before an impressive win over West Coast and a loss to the Dogs. They are approaching the first of what they hope will be two wins against ourselves and Hawthorn, which would see them at 6-1-6 and poised for a run at the eight. They've been solid but not brilliant. Today's draw against North was a bad slip up, and opens the door for a number of their rivals (maybe even us?).

The bye:
In the last nine years our overall win percentage is 32.7% (63-1-130). Coming off the bye we are 44.4% (four wins out of nine matches - all four wins by under a goal).

H2H:

We've played them 10 times overall. We won the first two convincingly, when they were still in nappies. A solitary win since then, and that by a point. Before the shortened COVID game last year (9 point loss after we kicked only one goal after half time), they pantsed us by around 100 points in the previous two encounters.

Styles In Summary

Giants tend to muscle their way to their wins of late, led by Mummy in the ruck. They have not been rock solid in front of goal, but have generated enough chances to get them over the line in their wins.

Blues tend to find various ways to lose by just under four goals. Common factors are heroic efforts by the back six, breaking even at least in the midfield, missing easy shots at goal and going to sleep for 15 minutes at some point each game.

How to stop/beat the Giants:

Frankly it's hard to see a way. If we play them every week for the next ten weeks, they win nine of them. Our best bet is to cross our fingers and hope that this is the other one.

Their midfield bats deeper than ours, and is not short on talent and class (Kelly, Taranto, Whitfield, Ward, DeBoer, Hopper, Green). I'm guessing that De Boer will go to Walsh - it will be interesting to see how our man goes. After getting destroyed by Heeney and Ryan in our last two games, we face the prospect of not one but two dangerous small forwards (Greene, Bobby Hill). Weitering and Jones should be able to beat their two KPF's though (Finlayson, Perryman). At the other end Harry will have an edge (over who? suspect they will double team him all day) and will be hard to stop, but (a) we need to give him enough looks at it, and (b) his conversion needs to improve.
Perhaps if their defence is too Harry-focussed then Betts, Owies, Fisher and Silvagni can do some damage. That quartet will likely need to kick five or six between them if we are any chance.

We certainly won't win if it's a shoot out. To have a chance we need to slow it down, tackle, contest, scrap, tackle, take our chances, tackle, defend well, and tackle.


Ins/Outs: IMVHO

Blues: Out - Murphy (sub), Cottrell, Newnes, Setterfield, Curnow. In - Plowman, Parks, Kennedy, Kemp, Samo (Plowman and Parks to take their small forwards, Stocker, Samo, Kennedy and Kemp to be thrown into our midfield rotations).

Giants: TBC

Prediction:

Logic and form would say we lose this by three our four goals, again. Or maybe we turn the corner and lose by 70+.

But in an alternative universe we turn a different corner and break the cycle. The 'other' Carlton, that one we all know is lurking just under the surface, the one that plays with confidence, dash, flair and composure when necessary, the one that is capable of multiple wins in a row, like freshwater pearls shining on a string in the sunshine... that one shows up.

Blues by 25.
 
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Arr0w

Brownlow Medallist
Nov 13, 2015
29,923
81,095
In Transit
AFL Club
Carlton
Pick the best side available, based on player output and team first ethos

Slow the the gamestyle down when needed, play a more appropriate player/+1 defensively

Balance our inside 50's with first point of call being lowering our eyes to a leading target before bombing it long

Drag the game back to being a more contested affair, which suits our list
 

SurreyBlue

Norm Smith Medallist
May 1, 2002
9,459
12,200
AFL Club
Carlton
Simple - line in the sand drawn over the break.
The coach has 10 weeks to show us he can get the players to play at the required level and attitude. IMO - must also put away his obsession and stubbornness with his favourites and promote VFL performances and give players busting a gut a decent run. No seconded chances form here.
The assistant coaches have 10 weeks to show us they have the smarts with structures and setups.
The players have 10 weeks to show us they can perform at the levels required over this period of time and can execute the required plans.
The leaders must show us they want to lead this group with every act off and on the ground.
This club is at a crucial fork in the road and it all starts this week, else.......

My team would be:
Newman Jones Plowman
Williams Weitering Saad
Docherty Cripps O’Brien
Martin Casboult Fisher
JSoS McKay Betts
TDK Curnow Walsh
Owies Dow Stocker SpS
Murphy / Setterfield
 
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The Fantom

Team Captain
Jun 27, 2018
482
1,878
AFL Club
Carlton
Simple - line in the sand drawn over the break.
The coach has 10 weeks to show us he can get the players to play at the required level and attitude. IMO - must also put away his obsession and stubbornness with his favourites and promote VFL performances and give players busting a gut a decent run. No seconded chances form here.
The assistant coaches have 10 weeks to show us they have the smarts with structures and setups.
The players have 10 weeks to show us they can perform at the levels required over this period of time and can execute the required plans.
The leaders must show us they want to lead this group with every act off and on the ground.
This club is at a crucial fork in the road and it all starts this week, else.......

My team would be:
Newman Jones Plowman
Williams Weitering Saad
Docherty Cripps O’Brien
Martin Casboult Fisher
JSoS McKay Betts
TDK Curnow Walsh
Owies Dow Stocker SpS
Murphy / Setterfield
I like that team, happy to give O’Brien an extended run to see what his got. Cottrell doesn’t offer much. Wouldn’t mind seeing Honey in too if he’s fit.

But do you think they’ll go with TDK V Mumford? Mummy will physically monster him.
 

SurreyBlue

Norm Smith Medallist
May 1, 2002
9,459
12,200
AFL Club
Carlton
I like that team, happy to give O’Brien an extended run to see what his got. Cottrell doesn’t offer much. Wouldn’t mind seeing Honey in too if he’s fit.

But do you think they’ll go with TDK V Mumford? Mummy will physically monster him.
I’m not confident the MC would do any of that.:D
I agree we need to protect TDK but we also need to play Casboult, as currently he is a genuine KP support to Harry.
 

AB_Blue

Brownlow Medallist
Jun 26, 2011
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"South of the border"
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Other Teams
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Has anything been said re Newman’s injury ?

Plowman is a definite, id throw the challenge to SPS and drop Murphy to fit him into the side.

Pitto for Levi would give us better structure but going up against mummy would be a big ask for TKD


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 

CJMB

Premiership Player
Aug 30, 2017
4,529
14,867
Melbourne
AFL Club
Carlton
Hopefully Teague is taking notes from the GWS North game now. NM currently leading 72-57 with about 4.4 mins left in the 3rd.

It won’t happen, but I’d like the outs to include Murphy, Curnow, Cottrell and Newman (who may need more than a week off after that?).

Plow a definite in. Others could be Fogarty, Kemp, SPS, O’Brien, Williamson, Ramsay, Durdin.

Ideally I’d like to see Stocker play some inside mid, and when he’s back let him play hbf not an isolated, unsupported and deep lockdown role ffs…
 

Gointocarlton

Senior List
Feb 16, 2013
256
718
AFL Club
Carlton
I like that team, happy to give O’Brien an extended run to see what his got. Cottrell doesn’t offer much. Wouldn’t mind seeing Honey in too if he’s fit.

But do you think they’ll go with TDK V Mumford? Mummy will physically monster him.
We dont draw lines in the sand, we cower in the corner and fade into oblivion.
 

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Jimmae

Brownlow Medallist
Nov 4, 2003
16,814
26,277
Earth, near Carlton.
AFL Club
Carlton
Other Teams
Tennessee Titans, Tottenham Hotspur
OUT: Pittonet, Newman, Cottrell, Newnes
IN: Fogarty, Plowman, O'Brien

FB:
Docherty Jones Plowman
HB:
Saad Weitering Williams
C: Walsh E.Curnow O'Brien
HF:
Martin JSOS Fisher
FF: Owies McKay Betts

R: TDK Cripps Setterfield

Int: Dow, Murphy, Stocker, Fogarty

Sub: Pittonet

Use Cripps around the ground as a relief ruck, and Jones at centre bounces if needed, Pittonet on standby. Throw an extra runner at it.

Plowman is a straight swap for Newman, Stocker goes into the inside midfield rotation, with Walsh and O'Brien taking over Cottrell's defensive duties and adding more bite to the wing role than he, Setterfield, or Docherty.

Easier to play tempo football when you have the speed and endurance to cover ground on every line, as well as the foot skills to generate uncontested marks and marks on the lead.
 

Jimmae

Brownlow Medallist
Nov 4, 2003
16,814
26,277
Earth, near Carlton.
AFL Club
Carlton
Other Teams
Tennessee Titans, Tottenham Hotspur
Might as well play Kemp and Charlie now, our young supporters are finding other things to do
Kemp and Charlie aren't ready. Kemp will be ready first, but where do you play him? CHF seems like a sound spot, but he's not been training there.
 
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