Preview Rd 8 Geelong v Melbourne Sat May 4th 730pm @ MCG

[iameviljez]

Melbourne’s mids aside from Gawn who is absolutely smashing it are not in the best of form at the moment so we just need to nullify max as best we can

I would bring in Conway and play Stanley as sub
Dees the only team you would contemplate such an approach but Gawn is a unique player

I believe we could cover all positions should we get an injury

Tell Conway go hard and then swap to Stanley for the second half unless Conway going ok then swap at 3/4 time

And what if Cam Guthrie goes down in the first ten minutes?

 

[fpm84]

Scott Gullan / Jon Ralph on Fox Footy now:

• coaches split on Stanley v Conway this week, Scott likely to stick with Stanley
• Rohan likely to return as sub
• Parfitt wants to stay, negotiating exclusively with us
• Stengle and Kolo to start contract talks soon

 

[Vdubs]

Scott Gullan / Jon Ralph on Fox Footy now:

• coaches split on Stanley v Conway this week, Scott likely to stick with Stanley
• Rohan likely to return as sub
• Parfitt wants to stay, negotiating exclusively with us
• Stengle and Kolo to start contract talks soon

Great summary of that conversation.

 

[stac]

And what if Cam Guthrie goes down in the first ten minutes?

he missed the first 6 games
And we did ok

We have quite a few that can go through the middle

Put Stanley to chf and add Jez to the mid mix

If Gawn goes nuts we will struggle

 

[iameviljez]

Put Stanley to chf and add Jez to the mid mix

So... basically move out our biggest weapon? For a guy who has lost his marking mitts since 2022?

Playing Stanley and Conway together is, IMO, a recipe for a bad time - either you're a rotation down, or you are playing someone badly out of position.

 

[Strange Cat]

And what if Cam Guthrie goes down in the first ten minutes?

Can’t plan for everything

 

[Vdubs]

he missed the first 6 games
And we did ok

We have quite a few that can go through the middle

Put Stanley to chf and add Jez to the mid mix

If Gawn goes nuts we will struggle

Petracca, Viney and Oliver will run rampant this week- well rested, hungry and keen to show their dominance.
Second week malaise for CGuthrie, no Danger, deficient rucks cf Gawn.
May to run off old man Hawkins...

Despite all that, we can still win this game

 

[iameviljez]

Can’t plan for everything

The point wasn't Cam Guthrie per se, it's just that a substitute needs to be chosen on the basis of players getting injured. That is the major value of a substitute.

 

[CHAWKTS]

The way we are playing at the moment, the mcg suits us better than KP. The wider wings give us way more space to exploit the opposition off d50 turnovers.

I am far more concerned about playing a good team at KP (ie. gws in 4 weeks) than I am about playing a decent Melbourne team at the mcg.

We might lose on Saturday if we just have an off night, but it won’t be because of the mcg home ground factor.

I was thinking the same re MCG…

When I watched the replay I was struck by how many running options we had going forward. Nearly every transition we had Dempsey, Close, Miers running in a pack. More often than not they didn’t get the ball but if anyone got shut down (ie. against better defence) they had an option. We then had Jezza, 2E and even Stanly (!!) running into F50 from weak side often.

The wider wings definitely helps our style I think which is to aggressively go forward - the width given more space for options

 

[Vdubs]

The point wasn't Cam Guthrie per se, it's just that a substitute needs to be chosen on the basis of players getting injured. That is the major value of a substitute.

basically should have a couple of great runners, an offensive gun, a defensive gun, and a tall enough to play ruck, ie 5 subs

 

[CHAWKTS]

Holmes and Duncan to half back, with Miers/Cameron/Dempsey pushing up deep as pseudo wingmen (even Close and Stengle have rolled the dice on this move more often) has been a masterclass in coaching to our personnel and their strengths.

Cameron has played dumb and said Scott just lets him do what he wants and it's all a bit random with players running on improv. Maybe there's a degree of truth in that but I think there was an element of masking tactics too.

I reckon that is a good take - no doubt in my mind that there is as much tactics as there is “free wheeling”. I think what we are finding is that a forward (miers or Jezza) is coming up to be a “midfielder” after the bounce. They go to the contest. And a wing (Blitz or Dempsey or 2E) or MF (Danger) pushes forward. It makes match ups nightmare

I have never seen Blitz going forward as much, and Jezza roaming much more - not by accident

 

[CHAWKTS]

And what if Cam Guthrie goes down in the first ten minutes?

Jinx Jinx Double Jinx!

 

[winty]

Trend of cats having insulting odds continue:

Cats currently $1.81 (started at $1.85)
Dees $2.04

We should be $1.40-$1.50

Pretty sure Melbourne started the week slight favourites - either that or I was reading it wrong (which isn't out of the realms of possibility).

 

[moond0g]

They aren’t set by the money, they are set to encourage as much betting action as possible.

Betting on Geelong is boring, so they are jacking the odds to encourage more action.

Agencies lose more money when favourites win. So the idea that they’re artificially inflating our (the favourites) odds just to promote more betting seems a bit strange

 

[cats_09]

he missed the first 6 games
And we did ok

We have quite a few that can go through the middle

Put Stanley to chf and add Jez to the mid mix

If Gawn goes nuts we will struggle

Genuine question - why would we play Stanley at CHF?


There’s been the odd team that’s used a ruckman as the sub, but not sure it’s paid off all too often for teams taking the chance - picking a ruck for the sub just seems to be asking for trouble

 

[Johanpetro]

Pretty sure Melbourne started the week slight favourites - either that or I was reading it wrong (which isn't out of the realms of possibility).

We were $2 underdogs before the Carlton game. Came into slight favs after it

 

[stac]

Genuine question - why would we play Stanley at CHF?


There’s been the odd team that’s used a ruckman as the sub, but not sure it’s paid off all too often for teams taking the chance - picking a ruck for the sub just seems to be asking for trouble

I am not advocating playing Stanley at CHF but was just using it as an example of positional possibilities should we use him as Sub

My thoughts are that Melb could win if max plays well but can’t win if he is not as effective

If we play Melb with one ruck and he gets injured (Ie Brisbane against us) we will get belted

I feel we could cover other players getting injured but not Ruck

 

[Hinkley29]

Agencies lose more money when favourites win. So the idea that they’re artificially inflating our (the favourites) odds just to promote more betting seems a bit strange

No they don’t lose money when favourites win.

The bookies will set the odds to try and encourage as much action (on both teams) as possible. For a team like Geelong who the betting public are sick of, they need to inflate the odds to encourage more people to bet on them.

If the bookies find themselves over exposed to either result they will lay off their potential losses with other books. They will rarely be exposed to a losing position of any magnitude.

Because of the small premium built into both sides of the bet, and their ability to lay their losses off, the bookies sole goal is to increase betting turnover. They clip the ticket on every bet.

 

[BORIS332]

he missed the first 6 games
And we did ok

We have quite a few that can go through the middle

Put Stanley to chf and add Jez to the mid mix

If Gawn goes nuts we will struggle

 

[BORIS332]

Petracca, Viney and Oliver will run rampant this week- well rested, hungry and keen to show their dominance.
Second week malaise for CGuthrie, no Danger, deficient rucks cf Gawn.
May to run off old man Hawkins...

Despite all that, we can still win this game

Agree. Getting comprehensively beaten in the midfield for the first seven rounds hasn't hurt our W-L record. So long as we keep getting quick entries into our forward line we'll be hard to beat.

 

[#6 Thorp #7 Selwood LOL]

No they don’t lose money when favourites win.

The bookies will set the odds to try and encourage as much action (on both teams) as possible. For a team like Geelong who the betting public are sick of, they need to inflate the odds to encourage more people to bet on them.

If the bookies find themselves over exposed to either result they will lay off their potential losses with other books. They will rarely be exposed to a losing position of any magnitude.

Because of the small premium built into both sides of the bet, and their ability to lay their losses off, the bookies sole goal is to increase betting turnover. They clip the ticket on every bet.

The house always wins.

 

[BlakeyNoFlakey]

In: Stewart, Conway, Rohan (sub)
Out: Stanley, Dangerfield, Dempsey or OConnor (rest)

I say put Toby in and play him for a block of 5 games now to see how he goes. Put him in against Gawn for a learning experience. Atkins, who was the sub last week, takes Danger's spot in the team.

 

[Lana]

I reckon that is a good take - no doubt in my mind that there is as much tactics as there is “free wheeling”. I think what we are finding is that a forward (miers or Jezza) is coming up to be a “midfielder” after the bounce. They go to the contest. And a wing (Blitz or Dempsey or 2E) or MF (Danger) pushes forward. It makes match ups nightmare

I have never seen Blitz going forward as much, and Jezza roaming much more - not by accident

First time I've noticed Blicavs start in the forward line during a centre bounce. Spent large portions of the 2nd quarter as a forward. With Hawkins not being a threat, they pushed Danger (who also started forward until late in the quarter) and Blicavs forward to provide a greater aerial presence.

 

[Goggin Our Best]

Agree. Getting comprehensively beaten in the midfield for the first seven rounds hasn't hurt our W-L record. So long as we keep getting quick entries into our forward line we'll be hard to beat.

Its amazing what Geel have done re the bolded , mind you it does help having J Cameron at CHF

But go back 4-5-6 years and how Carlton played on the weekend with all those extra inside 50s but they didnt look like scoring - and that was Geelongs problem back then - makiing hard work of scoring goals - or scoring them by accident . I can remember that elim final against Melb in 2018 , Geel could have had 5-6 goals on the board in the 1st qtr and ended up having none ( even Ablett kicked it straight to the opposition twice ) watching Geel trying to score back then was a nightmare , and Melb would waltz the ball down the other end and score the easiest of goals , exactly what Geel did to Carlton time and time again from limited opportunities/inside 50s

 

[Footy Smarts]

View attachment 1975549

Felt genuinely sorry for Rhys that night. I thought it was arguably his best game for the club. In the period they were on each other Rhys arguably won the battle. But I reckon Gawn kicked 4 of his goals when he wasn't opposed to Stanley and people look at the stats and assume Gawn killed him.