Preview Rnd 23 - Carlton v Sydney Saturday 26th August 4.35PM @ SCG - Team post #143

[HBF]

I reckon Marchbank needs to play if fit. Swans have 3 talls plus Rohan, so we'll need some coverage down there.

Jones to Buddy
Weitering to Reid
Marchbank to Tippett
Plowman to Rohan

 

[HARKER]

The best full back in the league vs the best forward.

Who wouldn't want to see that?

 

[Neku]

We can only hope, doesn't seem too likely though.

Changes:

Out: Smedts (concussion/omitted), JSOS (injured)
In: Armfield (deserves a send off), Cuningham

If Armfield doesn't play, I think either Mckay or Jaksch should come in.

 

[HARKER]

Sorry, but no to Armfield. He didn't even play last week nor does he deserve to this week.

I'm surprised but happy for Weitering to have played on, when we could have easily take him out for the year.
Don't think anyone is going to be pulled out now, because of an injury they've carried and played through.

Don't think that someone coming back from an injury will be played now. Not Marchbank nor McKay. There's little point.

 

[StandByyourMan]

Sorry, but no to Armfield. He didn't even play last week nor does he deserve to this week.

I'm surprised but happy for Weitering to have played on, when we could have easily take him out for the year.
Don't think anyone is going to be pulled out now, because of an injury they've carried and played through.

Don't think that someone coming back from an injury will be played now. Not Marchbank nor McKay. There's little point.

Just re Weitering - did you hear Bolton talk about the dangers self fulfilling prophecy of resting young'ns? He is obviously of the view that there is a strong argument for teaching players to endure through physical adversity. Bolts gives a bit away in some cryptic one liners..

 

[HARKER]

Just re Weitering - did you hear Bolton talk about the dangers self fulfilling prophecy of resting young'ns? He is obviously of the view that there is a strong argument for teaching players to endure through physical adversity. Bolts gives a bit away in some cryptic one liners..

Well spotted.

He does it in just the right way.

 

[branedotorg]

The best full back in the league vs the best forward.

Who wouldn't want to see that?

weits on reid?

 

[Azul]

weits on reid?

Grundy on Curnow

 

[ESKIE]

We've got nothing to lose here, our last hoorah throw everything at them...

Will they be after a percentage boost to finish 5th or cruise to a comfortable win and stay 6th (Richmond should account for Saints )...

 

[F_therest]

We've got nothing to lose here, our last hoorah throw everything at them...

Will they be after a percentage boost to finish 5th or cruise to a comfortable win and stay 6th (Richmond should account for Saints )...

Cruise? No chance.

They will go all out to try to secure 4th. Richmond beating Saints is definitely not a given...Saints smashed them earlier this year and will be up for the game to give Riewoldt a winning ending.

 

[ESKIE]

Or would they prefer a home final, 4th will take them back to Adelaide?

 

[Beast__Mode]

Or would they prefer a home final, 4th will take them back to Adelaide?

100% guarantee they'll want the double chance.

 

[Mr_Plow]

We finished last year with 1568 for and 1978 against, 79.3%.
We're currently at 1537 for and 1900 against, 80.9%.

We'll very likely eclipse last year's points for, and probably just concede a few more points (maybe not).

This is while getting 15+ games into SPS, Curnow, Weitering, Marchbank, Fisher, Silvagni, Williamson, 10 games into Pickett and 8 games into Cuningham and Macreadie.

Progress.

 

[TeeJay Blue]

Sorry, but no to Armfield. He didn't even play last week nor does he deserve to this week.

That would be because he was the emergency. There's always gonna be one emergency to not play any match when no late change takes place.

You should know that by now with all that experience. Shame on you Harks.

 

[Drexl 31]

Don't discount us for this game. Sydney will be playing with a fear of losing. We will be playing with nearly no pressure. It will be a lot closer than most think.

 

[Kismet]

Sydney are obvious favourites, but if we bring a similar intensity as the Dawks game, we're a good chance.

Key will, again, be the midfield. If Charlie can turn it on again (with a Rising Star winning display), the Swannypoos might have a few problems.

 

[HARKER]

That would be because he was the emergency. There's always gonna be one emergency to not play any match when no late change takes place.

You should know that by now with all that experience. Shame on you Harks.

I know. Just suggesting that the held over emergency rarely gets the call up the week after.

 

[Abyss]

I reckon Marchbank needs to play if fit. Swans have 3 talls plus Rohan, so we'll need some coverage down there.

Jones to Buddy
Weitering to Reid
Marchbank to Tippett
Plowman to Rohan

I like the thought behind that. I could see
Jones though, matched to tangle up with tippett. Hes got the jump and body pressure. I think Franklin is too rangy, who is quickest out of weits and marchy over 500m? Weits could probably use the lesson for his back and potential forward role in the future. Franklin continually moves and has bursts to the footy that wouldnt suit Jonesy. I think he is a fast twitch guy. The lactate loads generated by the sprint types generate more power but have longer recovery and higher overall lactate (very basic description).
I think Pickett may be the same. You can get a bit more endurance into these types but you can blunt the speed if overdone.
Weits looks as though he can run all day, best in straighter lines.
No pressure on the blues this weekend. I hope the chosen squad enjoys their last match of 2017.
They showed me enough this year, I think they targetted the hawks, bolts made strategic moves for the win. Some early big scalps have shown a couple of things this season. A. Ability to overcome some very solid opponents...gws, hawks, swans as described by a few other posters
B. win a game we target. Ability carlton has not had for years.

 

[Cowboyblues]

Unfortunately we won't get the chocolates this week. Sydney are humming now and need to lock away the 4 points and half% to give them any chance of top 4. They will also be looking to hit finals hard. Our boys have been great but this will be a little beyond them this year. ( I'd love to be wrong).
Out Smedts (sos)
In Cuners ( jacksch)

 

[ESKIE]

Don't discount us for this game. Sydney will be playing with a fear of losing. We will be playing with nearly no pressure. It will be a lot closer than most think.

Yes

 

[Cripps 'n' Blue Bloods]

I can see both sides. No doubt Swans would prefer top 4 and a second chance, but they might also take us for granted and rest a couple players before finals. They have form in that department, but the extra week off might change that strategy. They'll consider themselves a better side than the one that lost to us earlier in the year and might get ahead of themselves a bit.
Having said that, I'm expecting to lose and just want us to put up a fight for as long as we can and not get blown out.

 

[Windhover]

OUT - Billie Smedts

IN - David Cuningham

FB - Lachie Plowman, Liam Jones, Ciaran Byrne
HB - Jacob Weitering, Sam Docherty, Kade Simpson
C - Zac Fisher, Samo Petrevski-Seton, Blaine Boekhorst
HF - Jed Lamb, Charlie Curnow, David Cuningham
FF - Matthew Wright, Levi Casboult, Dale Thomas
R - Matthew Kreuzer, Bryce Gibbs, Marc Murphy
I - Jack Silvagni, Sam Kerridge, Jarrod Pickett, Tom Williamson

E - Macreadie (if SOJ is injured)

Sydney's game plan is based around winning the ball in heavily contested areas and arm-wrestling their opponent into submission. They do this with Kennedy, Parker, Jack, Hannebery, Hewett, Lloyd, Z Jones, McVeigh and Heeney. Those 8 had almost 200 of Sydney's 359 disposals with the other 14 players sharing 165 disposals.

If they can win the ball out of the middle easily early they can score heavily, as they did against the Crows kicking the first 4 goals. Kreuzer will have his hands full contesting against Sinclair/Tippett and our midfield is decidedly thinner with Murphy, Gibbs, Kerridge, SPS, Fisher and Cuningham which suggests that Docherty, Daisy and Wright will have to spend some period in the middle and running with the Swans ball handlers.

The Sydney defence plays as a unit and the most important component of that unit is Rampe. He has played every game since round 9. Before then Syd famously lost their first 6 and then won against the Lions and North. McVeigh coming in after their loss to us in rnd 6 also helped. McVeigh may not be wanted at Sydney after this year but I note on GPS tracking he and Kennedy ran further than anyone else in the game against Adelaide (15 km).

I would play SOJ on Rampe if he is fit and force Rampe down the ground and out of the way of Caz and CC. SOJ has been played on the HBF in previous games to develop his defensive skills and he should aim to be completely negating on Rampe. Rampe will of course peel off SOJ to assist down back and that is when SOJ's skill at finding space unmarked on the forward line needs to shine. If there isn't the space to run into he needs to find himself very tightly in Rampe's way. Also, his team-mates need to be alert to the opportunity and not just bomb it long to Caz and Grundy/Rampe which will then see the ball going back the other way.

Against Hawthorn BB employed a very obvious but underutilised defensive structure which involved cutting off their short passing possession game by having one defender about 20m from the player on the mark down the line and one defender about the same distance but 45 degrees in-board. This cut off any risk-free short pass forwards and meant either a long kick down the line to an even contest or a kick backwards. When the ball was kicked backwards we then simply advanced the defensive structure further forward and forced the Hawks to kick long down the line from deeper in defence. By and large the Hawks were too disciplined to kick the ball long into the middle and risk a turn-over goal.

I doubt this defensive structure will work against the Swans because in the main they are happy to win the ball in close contests and try and run the ball out from the pack either long to someone loose or to another contested position closer to their goals. Hawthorn beat the Swans both times by lots of short passing, uncontested football (that we didn't permit). This can be seen in the stats. Both HvS games were low scoring which implies slow ball movement. In game 1 hawks had 79 more kicks and 65 more marks (but fewer contested marks). In game 2 hawks had 52 more kicks and 46 more marks (and interestingly 16 more contested marks, so the hawks knew when to kick it to a contest they could trust). Sydney also had a "bad" day with Kennedy having only 14 possessions and Newman (who?) being their leading possession winner.

IMO we will want to play with an extra player back and allow Syd to have an extra player on the ball. In the event we win the ball we need to kick back to our extra player and, unless there is an obvious target forward, we then need to slowly bring the ball forward by uncontested passing from side to side until we find a player loose to attack through. Syd close down space very quickly when they are on so much hard wide often unrewarded running will be required (SOJ, BB, CC, DC looking at you) to break up the defensive pressure.

In the event Syd win the ball they will use their extra at the contest to over-lap run the ball down the ground. To prevent this our midfielders will have to run hard back and put as much pressure as possible on the ball-carrier. Giving up a few professional free kicks with deliberate holds etc should also be considered to stop the Swans run and give us a chance to reset in defence.

The Beast should have no difficulty with Buddy in the air as he is not a good contested mark and should match Buddy for pace. Should be a great contest. I am happy for Plowman to man Reid (who is very strong in the air) and Weitering the resting ruck. JW runs a long way in matches and should use this to try and blow up his "resting" opponent and give us short pass marking options up the ground.

If the Sydney mids are on it is going to be very hard for us to get enough ball to be competitive. The Swans will not be frightened to play the Crows first week of the finals (having beaten them away last week), unlike Port and Richmond. So we should expect a determined Swans really wanting to beat us by as much as possible to gain the percentage on Port they need (and look at Port and Richmond not taking their games too seriously). Knowing the Swans want to beat us badly means that the longer we can frustrate them from scoring the more impatient they may become and the more possible is it for us to hurt them on the rebound if they over-reach.

 

[ShanDog]

I'd be stoked if we can pinch this one and end on 7 wins. Watch the media suddenly shift to saying "The Blues have backed up their 2016 season and taken steps forward in development" if we do. Like that seventh win makes all the difference.

 

[Bluez Rule]

Hopefully Swans will play nice considering the 'favour' we did for them by smashing them around in our last meeting. Poked the bear, got them angry and they've barely missed a trick since. Next thing they're top 4 contention.

 

[ESKIE]

Need to get in their faces...

We have nothing to lose