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Analysis Rolling All-Australian team for 2021

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B: Lever May Rich
HB: Ridley Moore Hurn
C: Macrae Boak Walsh
HF: Martin Walker Heeney
F: Fantasia Bruce McKay
OB: Gawn Oliver Bontompelli
I/C: Gulden Jiath Mills Kelly (Tim)

Interesting start to the year. I don't feel like any of the big guns have come out firing in the first few rounds other then maybe Dusty. Expect to see a fair few changes to this team over the next few weeks.
Lever shouldn't be in the team
 
fb: Jordan Ridley (Ess) - Steven May (Melb) - Shannon Hurn (WCE).
hb: Changkuoth Jiath (Haw) - Darcy Moore (Coll) - Daniel Rich (Bris).
c: Sam Walsh (Carl) - Travis Boak (PA) - Andrew Brayshaw (Fre).
hf: Dustin Martin (Rich) - Taylor Walker (Adel) - Isaac Heeney (Syd).
ff: Anthony McDonald-Tipungwuti (Ess) - Harry McKay (Carl) - Kysaiah Pickett (Melb).
foll: Max Gawn (Melb) - Jack Macrae (WB) - Clayton Oliver (Melb).
interchange: Nic Naitanui (WCE) - Callum Mills (Syd) - Marcus Bontempelli (WB) - Tom McCartin (Syd).

next bunch (in no particular order).: Tom Papley (Syd), Josh Dunkley (WB), Josh Bruce (WB), Errol Gulden (Syd), Tim Kelly (WCE), Jayden Short (Rich), Jake Lever (Melb), Rory Sloane (Adel), Brodie Grundy (Coll), Jack Bowes (GC), Orazio Fantasia (PA), Jason Castagna (Rich), Tom Mitchell (Haw).

flipping hard work. There's no real wingers dominating but Walsh and Brayshaw have been starting mids with the most uncontested ball use here, so I feel I have to give them the spots. Not expecting this to stay either, waiting for Gaff to warm up. Yes there's a few guys I haven't included who are a bit better but this is a wing spot so I don't want to put Dunkley there, I'll leave that to Bevo.

Yes no Josh Bruce but I can't see him actually staying in. McKay's been a lot more consistent and I'd probably take him over Juicy, even before the 7.4 vs Freo, McKay was genuinely very good vs Moore in a shoot-out, even with Moore taking the points.

Moore by the way is as close to Alex Rance as we've gotten for a few years with his ability to have 4 or 5 kicked on him, yet still be able to have massive impact. Easy pick at CHB.

Jiath incredibly unique skillset that makes him so hard to ignore, has every athletic ability (leap, pace, agility, endurance) and the footballing is pretty solid as well. Really excited for him.

Two rucks because they're both amazing. NN just misses the #1 ruck spot but cannot leave him out.

Kozzie and Tippa have been better than Raz IMO, more tackling, x-factor, goal sense. Ground ball gets are the kicker for me with these spots. Papley very stiff.
 
Naitanui is a more influential player in ruck contests, which should by definition be the #1 criteria.

The ruck is still a genuine 1 on 1 contest. Dominating there should count for more than finding it around the ground.
Unfortunately for NN the ruck role isn't confined to just pure ruck work. Hence why people rate Grundy so highly too, the work around the ground counts when you have someone skilled at that size.

From a ruck and stoppage perspective they're ridiculously even with NN having the edge in clearances and hitouts to advantage, while Gawn wins more hitouts by volume and percentage.

1617765012124.png

And when you start to look at total ground impact Gawn really does have the edge in disposals, marking and scoring. Not that what NN can always be quantified (as he has a huge impact on games) but to suggest that 1v1 rucking is the main criteria is a bit of a stretch. If that's the case, Gawn should've been the AA starter for last year with his totals.

1617765211900.png

1617765265138.png

1617765291984.png
 

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fb: Jordan Ridley (Ess) - Steven May (Melb) - Shannon Hurn (WCE).
hb: Changkuoth Jiath (Haw) - Darcy Moore (Coll) - Daniel Rich (Bris).
c: Sam Walsh (Carl) - Travis Boak (PA) - Andrew Brayshaw (Fre).
hf: Dustin Martin (Rich) - Taylor Walker (Adel) - Isaac Heeney (Syd).
ff: Anthony McDonald-Tipungwuti (Ess) - Harry McKay (Carl) - Kysaiah Pickett (Melb).
foll: Max Gawn (Melb) - Jack Macrae (WB) - Clayton Oliver (Melb).
interchange: Nic Naitanui (WCE) - Callum Mills (Syd) - Marcus Bontempelli (WB) - Tom McCartin (Syd).

next bunch (in no particular order).: Tom Papley (Syd), Josh Dunkley (WB), Josh Bruce (WB), Errol Gulden (Syd), Tim Kelly (WCE), Jayden Short (Rich), Jake Lever (Melb), Rory Sloane (Adel), Brodie Grundy (Coll), Jack Bowes (GC), Orazio Fantasia (PA), Jason Castagna (Rich), Tom Mitchell (Haw).

f*n hard work. There's no real wingers dominating but Walsh and Brayshaw have been starting mids with the most uncontested ball use here, so I feel I have to give them the spots. Not expecting this to stay either, waiting for Gaff to warm up. Yes there's a few guys I haven't included who are a bit better but this is a wing spot so I don't want to put Dunkley there, I'll leave that to Bevo.

Yes no Josh Bruce but I can't see him actually staying in. McKay's been a lot more consistent and I'd probably take him over Juicy, even before the 7.4 vs Freo, McKay was genuinely very good vs Moore in a shoot-out, even with Moore taking the points.

Moore by the way is as close to Alex Rance as we've gotten for a few years with his ability to have 4 or 5 kicked on him, yet still be able to have massive impact. Easy pick at CHB.

Jiath incredibly unique skillset that makes him so hard to ignore, has every athletic ability (leap, pace, agility, endurance) and the footballing is pretty solid as well. Really excited for him.

Two rucks because they're both amazing. NN just misses the #1 ruck spot but cannot leave him out.

Kozzie and Tippa have been better than Raz IMO, more tackling, x-factor, goal sense. Ground ball gets are the kicker for me with these spots. Papley very stiff.

lost me when you neglected the first non-kpp defender who should be picked, then ignored him in your next bunch of names.

jiath over Houston? **** me.
 
I didn't say it was. I said it should be the #1 criteria.

I ignored the rest of your post after reading this false premise.

Fair - you did say main.

Naitanui is a more influential player in ruck contests, which should by definition be the #1 criteria.

The ruck is still a genuine 1 on 1 contest. Dominating there should count for more than finding it around the ground.

Speaking of false...
 
Guess you've got no argument. Fair enough. Thanks for coming.

What a roundabout way to get back here...
 
Unfortunately for NN the ruck role isn't confined to just pure ruck work. Hence why people rate Grundy so highly too, the work around the ground counts when you have someone skilled at that size.

From a ruck and stoppage perspective they're ridiculously even with NN having the edge in clearances and hitouts to advantage, while Gawn wins more hitouts by volume and percentage.

View attachment 1096097

And when you start to look at total ground impact Gawn really does have the edge in disposals, marking and scoring. Not that what NN can always be quantified (as he has a huge impact on games) but to suggest that 1v1 rucking is the main criteria is a bit of a stretch. If that's the case, Gawn should've been the AA starter for last year with his totals.

View attachment 1096102

View attachment 1096105

View attachment 1096106

From the Mongrel Punt regarding stats like the above



SILVER SERVICE

There will be some that look at this game, or read about it in the newspaper. They’ll peruse the stats section and see that Nic Naitanui had 11 touches of the footy and 28 hit outs. They may be tempted to dismiss his game as nothing special.

Guys, those people are called idiots.

They’re the people who throw numbers at you to prove a point and haven’t even watched a game. They subscribe to the bible of Champion Data and deserve your ridicule (did you know that former Champion Data honcho, Glenn Luff is the list manager at North Melbourne… hahaha).

The ruck work of Nic Naitanui at points of this game was as good as you’ll ever see. Whilst his game around the ground was not at the level of, say, his amazing last quarter against St Kilda last season, the service he gave to Luke Shuey, Tim Kelly, Dom Sheed and Andrew Gaff was absolutely first class. No other ruck in the game does that – not Brodie Grundy, not Max Gawn… none.

As I watch games, I take a few notes to feed this review and on six occasions I wrote a variation of the following bullet point.

– Nic Nat to Gaff/Sheed/Shuey/TK… perfect

It just kept happening, and it wasn’t as though Naitanui was up against some scrub second-tier ruck – Scott Lycett is a bull of a man, and he more than held his own at stoppages around the ground. It’s just that when Naitanui was allowed to run and jump at the footy, the result was a fait accompli.

So, if you run into someone tomorrow who tells you that Shuey was great (he was), Kelly was good (he was), Redden flies under the radar (he does) and Gaff shut some people up (he did) but says that Nic Nat didn’t do much, you have my permission to find a glove and slap them right in the face with it. They are impostor football fans that would not know a good ruckman if he jumped up and kneed them in the throat.
 

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From the Mongrel Punt regarding stats like the above



SILVER SERVICE

There will be some that look at this game, or read about it in the newspaper. They’ll peruse the stats section and see that Nic Naitanui had 11 touches of the footy and 28 hit outs. They may be tempted to dismiss his game as nothing special.

Guys, those people are called idiots.

They’re the people who throw numbers at you to prove a point and haven’t even watched a game. They subscribe to the bible of Champion Data and deserve your ridicule (did you know that former Champion Data honcho, Glenn Luff is the list manager at North Melbourne… hahaha).

The ruck work of Nic Naitanui at points of this game was as good as you’ll ever see. Whilst his game around the ground was not at the level of, say, his amazing last quarter against St Kilda last season, the service he gave to Luke Shuey, Tim Kelly, Dom Sheed and Andrew Gaff was absolutely first class. No other ruck in the game does that – not Brodie Grundy, not Max Gawn… none.

As I watch games, I take a few notes to feed this review and on six occasions I wrote a variation of the following bullet point.

– Nic Nat to Gaff/Sheed/Shuey/TK… perfect

It just kept happening, and it wasn’t as though Naitanui was up against some scrub second-tier ruck – Scott Lycett is a bull of a man, and he more than held his own at stoppages around the ground. It’s just that when Naitanui was allowed to run and jump at the footy, the result was a fait accompli.

So, if you run into someone tomorrow who tells you that Shuey was great (he was), Kelly was good (he was), Redden flies under the radar (he does) and Gaff shut some people up (he did) but says that Nic Nat didn’t do much, you have my permission to find a glove and slap them right in the face with it. They are impostor football fans that would not know a good ruckman if he jumped up and kneed them in the throat.

I'll direct you to a sentence in my post you quoted...

" Not that what NN can always be quantified (as he has a huge impact on games)"
 
I'll direct you to a sentence in my post you quoted...

" Not that what NN can always be quantified (as he has a huge impact on games)"
I will direct you to "They’re the people who throw numbers at you to prove a point" which appears to be the premise of your post
 
I will direct you to "They’re the people who throw numbers at you to prove a point" which appears to be the premise of your post
Simply helps back up an argument. An argument without any data is really just a belief. Didn't want it to appear like I was cherry picking stats that favoured Gawn.
 
Port fan getting mad that someone didn't include a Port player?

What a shock...

guy who makes a bad list excluding obvious all-Aus picks on football forum draws criticism.
Hardly shocking.

Did you have anything constructive to add cause your comment has been done before. Like a lot.

including jiath and ignoring Houston was always going to draw criticism from someone.
 
lost me when you neglected the first non-kpp defender who should be picked, then ignored him in your next bunch of names.

jiath over Houston? fu** me.

Jiath has coaches votes in all three games. One of only four players to do that.
 

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lost me when you neglected the first non-kpp defender who should be picked, then ignored him in your next bunch of names.

jiath over Houston? fu** me.
knew i’d forgotten someone.
houston probably takes McCartin’s bench spot on first edit.
i would juuust take jiath over houston on the basis of his first three weeks for the on-field back flank spot.
 
I didn't say it was. I said it should be the #1 criteria.

I ignored the rest of your post after reading this false premise.
This again from you sweet Jesus. You spent all last year saying Kennedy would be put in the all Australian over Dixon because Kennedy had kicked more goals throughout the majority of the year and “that’s the only criteria that matters” no other stats mattered apparently. What happened? Who made AA in the end?
 
This again from you sweet Jesus. You spent all last year saying Kennedy would be put in the all Australian over Dixon because Kennedy had kicked more goals throughout the majority of the year and “that’s the only criteria that matters” no other stats mattered apparently. What happened? Who made AA in the end?
Actually, I said the key forward with the most goals should be picked. At the time, Kennedy had kicked more goals. By season's end, that was no longer the case.

Ultimately, Hawkins kicked the most goals and was therefore a deserving selection at FF. The Coleman Medallist got picked, as happens 9 times out of 10.

I've made the same case this year.

So what's your argument exactly?

I said the player who kicks the most goals should get picked and that's what happened? Yeah, devastating.

You'll also note that with regard to the ruck, I said performances in the ruck should be the #1 criteria. I didn't say the only criteria. Is that controversial? The AA ruckman should be judged first and foremost on their performance in the ruck. Do you disagree? Clearly the AA selectors agreed at the end of 2020, as evidenced by Naitanui's selection, with Gawn on the bench.

Try again.
 
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Analysis Rolling All-Australian team for 2021

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