Preview Round 21: Western Bulldogs vs Essendon, Docklands, Sunday 8/08/2021 @ 3:20 PM

Do we break the curse?


  • Total voters
    39
  • Poll closed .

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eth-dog

Premium Platinum
Jan 11, 2007
100,056
56,621
Melbourne
AFL Club
Essendon
Other Teams
Coburg Lions, All Boston sides
Observations

Western Bulldogs: The Dogs lead from start to finish against a hapless Adelaide, kicking away to a 49 point win for the Dogs. Caleb Daniel was very effective as a half back with 32 disposals, whilst Jason Johannisen, Josh Bruce and Jamarra Ugle-Hagan all had two goals for the Dogs in what could be described as a comfortable win.

Essendon: Essendon had another thriller against Sydney, this edition being a 7 point loss in a very exciting game of football. Zach Merrett was awesome through the midfield, having 35 disposals and kicking 2 goals, the clear best on for the Dons. Kyle Langford had a successful return for the Dons, kicking 3 goals, splitting his time between forward and wing.


Head to Head (last 5)

Western Bulldogs 5-0 Essendon


Form Guide

Western Bulldogs: 4W 1L
Essendon: 2W 3L


Sportsbet odds

Western Bulldogs: $
Essendon: $
Line: .5 ($1.90)


Possible sides

Western Bulldogs vs Essendon

FB: Tom Cutler - Brandon Zerk-Thatcher - Dyson Heppell

FF: Jason Johannisen - Josh Bruce - Jamarra Ugle-Hagan
HB: Jordan Ridley - James Stewart - Nick Hind
HF: Mitchell Hannan - Aaron Naughton - Cody Weightman
MF: Sam Durham - Dylan Shiel - Nik Cox
MF: Lachie Hunter - Tom Liberatore - Anthony Scott
HF: Will Snelling - Aaron Francis - Archie Perkins
HB: Caleb Daniel - Josh Schache - Bailey Dale
FF: Peter Wright - Cale Hooker - Anthony McDonald-Tipungwuti
FB: Easton Wood - Zaine Cordy - Bailey Williams
OB: Sam Draper - Zachary Merrett - Darcy Parish
OB: Tim English - Marcus Bontempelli - Jackson Macrae
IC: Mason Redman - Kyle Langford - Dylan Clarke - Jake Stringer
IC: Josh Dunkley - Riley Garcia - Bailey Smith - Roarke Smith
IS: Matthew Guelfi
IS: Patrick Lipinski

Western Bulldogs in: N/A; Out: N/A

Essendon in: Cale Hooker, Matthew Guelfi, Brandon Zerk-Thatcher; Out: Devon Smith (omitted), Jayden Laverde (shoulder), Brayden Ham (medical sub)



Western Bulldogs defence vs Essendon forward line

Essendon have dropped from the third most efficient forward line in the league this season to fourth, kicking a goal 24.11% of the time it enters their forward 50. Western Bulldogs are reliant on stopping th ball up the ground, conceding a goal 21.26% of the time it enters their defensive 50, 7th in the AFL. No Alex Keath means that Josh Schache will probably go to Essendon big guy Cale Hooker, who's coming off a rest, the big man's form dipping since the bye, same with Anthony McDonald-Tipungwuti, most likely to get attention from underrated medium Bailey Williams who has been one of the Dogs mainstays. Zaine Cordy on Peter Wright will be an interesting head to head as well, Wright averaging 1.5 goals/game since moving back forward, and will have a significant height advantage against Cordy.


Midfield/rucks battle

The depth the Western Bulldogs have through the inside is actually insane, the Dogs being 8th for contested possession difference and 2nd for clearance difference, whereas Essendon are 13th for both. The Dogs have the favourite for the Brownlow in Marcus Bontempelli as their main inside mid, but also have guys like Jackson Macrae, Josh Dunkley, Tom Liberatore and Bailey Smith rotating through there, all five being excellent clearance players. Essendon, on the other hand are overly reliant on Darcy Parish, Dylan Shiel and Jake Stringer as clearance winners for them, the lack of depth a clear concern for the Dons. On the outside, Essendon will be looking to mid season draftee Sam Durham and Kyle Langford to be outlets from defence, whilst Lachie Hunter will be the main outside player for the Dogs, the skillful left footer having a quietly great season yet again. Rucks wise, Sam Draper's significant girth and talent at a stoppage should see Essendon slightly advantaged that way, whilst Tim English will be looking to work him over, Draper's tank being nowhere near that of the Bulldogs ruck.


Western Bulldogs forward line vs Essendon defence

The Dogs have kicked a goal 24.48% of the time it enters their forward line, overtaking the Eagles for the first time this season as the most efficient in the AFL. Essendon have struggled defensively this season, conceding a goal 24.63% of the time it enters their defensive 50, 16th in the AFL. Simply put, The Dogs tall trio of Aaron Naughton, Josh Bruce and Jamarra Ugle-Hagan will prove difficult for James Stewart, Brandon Zerk-Thatcher and Tom Cutler, with Jayden Laverde missing making it very tough on the undersized defence, whilst Rising Star candidate Cody Weightman will have a tricky match up from Nick Hind, the former Saint has been a revelation for the mid table Bombers off half back.


X-Factor Player

Bailey Dale has been one of the best half backs so far this season and is well on his way to getting into the All Australian side for the first time.


Key stat

Western Bulldogs: Goals per inside 50. They simply have to put the score on the board against the Dons given they have a dominant midfield.

Essendon: Clearance Difference. Probably get smashed in this area but that's why it's vital, need to stop the Bulldogs midfield if they're any chance


Tip

This could be ugly. We're cooked, they're peaking at the right time. Bulldogs by 37
 
Last edited:

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MightyDon

Club Legend
Jun 18, 2011
1,931
2,425
AFL Club
Essendon
Give Clarke some mid/Centre bounce mins but only when stringers forward. Tough clearance player who tackles extremely well. Think we need to play a 2nd ruckman, Draper can rest forward with 2MP, when Draper is off the field and 2MP is rucking we’re back to Walla the CHF
 

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Mikevk123

Club Legend
Jun 25, 2019
1,750
1,580
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Essendon
In- Zerk-Thatcher, Hooker, Guelfi, Ham
Out- Perkins(rest), Cox(rest), Laverde(Inj), Langford(Inj)

B Hind Zerk-Thatcher Redman
HB Heppell Francis Ridley
C Guelfi Merrett Durham
HF Stringer Stewart Snelling
F Tipungwutti Hooker Smith
FOLL: Draper Shiel Parish
INTER: Wright, Ham, Clarke, Cutler
Sub: Waterman
 

TheGreatBarryB

Brownlow Medallist
Mar 20, 2007
29,199
30,124
Melbourne
AFL Club
Essendon
Other Teams
Texans, Astros, Leeds
In- Zerk-Thatcher, Hooker, Guelfi, Ham
Out- Perkins(rest), Cox(rest), Laverde(Inj), Langford(Inj)

B Hind Zerk-Thatcher Redman
HB Heppell Francis Ridley
C Guelfi Merrett Durham
HF Stringer Stewart Snelling
F Tipungwutti Hooker Smith
FOLL: Draper Shiel Parish
INTER: Wright, Ham, Clarke, Cutler
Sub: Waterman
What’s wrong with Langford?
 

Bombers36

Club Legend
Jul 15, 2008
2,966
1,183
Essendon
AFL Club
Essendon
Pray for a miracle and that we don’t lose all our percentage so we are still some chance to play finals. Something definitely not right with Tippa and hasn’t been for a while now. Is Caldwell ready? If not give Hird a taste of senior footy

OUT: Laverde, Cox, Tippa
IN: Zerk, Guelfi, Caldwell/Hird


Zerk Stewart Heppell
Redman Ridley Hind
Shiel Clarke Guelfi
Perkins Langford Snelling
Francis 2MP Stringer

Draper Parish Merrett

Bench: Cutler Smith Durham Caldwell/Hird



On iPhone using BigFooty.com mobile app
 

carloss

Club Legend
Sep 4, 2007
2,718
2,589
around
AFL Club
Essendon
Other Teams
Sheffield Wednesday
Tippa looks injured. I thought we learned last year, playing injured players doesn't work?

OUT: Laverde, Tippa
IN: Zerk, Guelfi
 
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