Preview Round 4, 2019: St Kilda v Hawthorn, 14 April 2019, 3.20pm at Marvel Stadium

[HODGEYROAD]

Can Sunday just come already ? sick of waiting all weekend for our games.

 

[Hawk_francais]

Clarko said JOM right to go.

Clarko would lie to you on your deathbed if he thought it would give an advantage to Hawthorn

 

[Luv_our_club]

Our 2019 fixture fills me with terror when i read it. If we can't come out 3-1 against Crows, WB, North, Stk, it will be a hard journey back.

Lose to the Saints... the goals of our season change for mine.

 

[Dave Id]

Sunday Too Far Away.

Followed by the sequel ..... Monday %$@&*#!

 

[Harper_Hawk]

O'Meara will play. Clarkson messing with Richardson. Like he did at the airport interviewed about Adelaide's midfield. Same tactic different angle.

Question for this game is. Can St Kilda out speed us for the whole game sending large numbers around the ball and spread quickly as the Doggies did.
They did this to us last year when they almost beat us.
What kind of team are we?... fast, tall quick on the outside...I'm yet to work this team out..but I've never really been able to understand Clarkson's game style!

 

[Hawk Hawkins]

The AFL is actually providing more and more useful advanced stats on its website these days. Have a look at Stats Pro. Really useful stuff!



I mean, I can't really provide stats if you shift the goal posts like that. The AFL website has him listed as a key forward because he's 197cm tall, the fact that opposition teams may not play a tall on him doesn't change the fact that he's a key forward based on his size and the position we name him.

Shifting the goal posts will no doubt have a big impact on his scoring ability.

 

[Bugs1977]

Hopefully he gets up, although I'd rather him miss against St Kilda than Geelong.

He won’t miss either

 

[Carl Spackler]

I find it hard to believe that JOM getting named is largely met with distrust and Nash continues to be the topic of the day. Someone needs to roll out the Thorazine.

 

[Milkshaker]

I actually think Nash is one of the first matchups opposition coaches have to consider, not due to his output right now but because of his athletic traits. It's extremely difficult to determine a suitable defender when your 197cm 93kg forward likely runs faster than your smaller defenders, and can crunch them into the dirt. However, at this stage of his development his inaccuracy and lack of aerial presence means that these ~188cm generalist defenders can cover him fairly easily. Hopefully, Nash's natural development soon means they won't be able to do that (he's only 20 and learning in the crucible of the seniors).

I dont. Can't mark. No real risk in front of the sticks. New to the game. Does not get much of it. I think its why random players sometimes get off the chain sgainst us. You plan how to exploit them but get bitten on the ass ocassionaly when they have a day out.

 

[KermitJagger]

Of course it's a reasonable opinion.

We've been over this in another thread and it's not true. There are replacements in the wings and Lewis is indeed one of them. Nash is for all intents and purposes playing a role not unlike Puopolo, Wingard and Breust. A small crumbing forward who applies pressure. Let's not forget that Rough and Gunston are also adept ground level players. Yet he doesn't trouble the scoreboard often and isn't laying too many tackles. We don't necessarily need Nash to play the role he's playing because we have that player type in abundance. But he is being given the opportunity to so good on him. However, we could bring in Lewis and give him the opportunities Nash has had and he could also provide a potential marking target to go along with.... McEvoy, Breust and Poppy ?? ... (an area we're thin in essentially). If he marks it we get a more reliable shot for goal. If he doesn't well we still have exactly the same situation we're in now with Nash playing i.e. the ball hitting ground and a great swag of crumber/tackling small forwards who all do what Nash does... but better at most of it except perhaps closing speed.

So yeah you can disagree and that's fine, and I like your opinion too for the most part, but to suggest the alternative opinion is an unreasonable one is....... well wrong.

No it's not wrong to suggest it's unreasonable. Reasonable means to be fair and sensible, rational. Reasonable is not making or expanding on assumptions that have no rational or statistical backing. There is nothing at all rational about suggesting we replace a player with someone who:

1. Plays a different role
2. Is like cramming a square peg into a round hole from a game plan perspective
3. Is less game ready
4. Is not demonstrably a better option to the incumbent player regardless of the above points

Lewis has hardly been named in the extended squad for crying out loud. Obviously he's not a suitable replacement for Nash in the eyes of the club.

Not to say I don't think he should get a run in the seniors, he should and I hope that he does. I just would think that the club might rather he gets that run in the seniors without playing alongside both Ceglar and McEvoy.

I've outlined in great detail why Nash is playing, what our game plan is and given statistical analysis to back it up. Continuing to say that we need someone different in because "we might take more marks" and Wingard and Breust can stop being attacking to pick up the slack defensively is the definition of unreasonable.

Like you said, we have discussed it before, but I thought I made it extremely clear at that point that our forward set up at the moment is a way to protect and mitigate weaknesses we currently have in the midfield.

North showed on the weekend that if you have a weak midfield and your players cannot shut down defensive rebound, marking players are almost not worth having on the field. Even Ben Brown, when his opportunities were limited by a good defense, became an absolute liability on the field.

Anyway, this whole conversation is a riveting way for me to use some analytics and feel like the degree in data science was worth it, but it's beginning to get a bit repetitive so I'm done with it now.

 

[badgrill]

Nice article on Scrimmers

https://m.hawthornfc.com.au/news/2019-04-12/scrimshaw-its-really-special

 

[lethalselbow]

Because I am not blinded by those that wear brown and gold and happy to express what I feel are "not up to AFL standard" performances of players, that makes me excessively stubborn and pugnacious? wowee... What a load of dribble. If Nash was playing for Essendon and putting up these numbers, everyone here would be looking to exploit the obvious weakness he would present. Make no mistake, no-one in this league gives 2 rats about Nash when doing any form of preparation when playing against us, if you think otherwise you're dreaming.

Thanks for that, coach.

 

[OnceKicked50]

The Nash questioning/bashing is idiotic. He is 20 years of age, learning the game, and one of the most intriguing players on our list. We are highly unlikely to be contending for a flag this year, so it's important we invest AFL, AFL, games into blokes like Nash so that with Mitchell and some smart free agency recruiting we are in a position to contend in 2020 with blokes like Nash 20 plus games into their career.

There is too many short sighted posters in this forum. Roughy kicked 18 goals in his first 36 games for * sake.

 

[Dave Id]

I find it hard to believe that JOM getting named is largely met with distrust and Nash continues to be the topic of the day. Someone needs to roll out the Thorazine.

Chris Hemsworth now has his own fanzine?

 

[tige19]

So you made that up then? Right. Carry on.

You have me in stitches, are you deadset? You’re one of the best

 

[tige19]

Thanks for that, coach.

 

[Nick the Pig]

I'm warming to Nash. Watching live, his speed allows him to close down space so quickly and at the moment is one of those guys whose value is greater than the stat sheet suggests. He has heart and isn't afraid to put his body in a contest. I also get the impression he is highly coachable and will follow the team rules to the letter.

By replacing Nash with a Lewis (or Shoey) type player we are changing up the total dynamic of the forward line. I'm not sure by losing the extra pressure forward in Nash we have a net gain in the addition of the extra marking forward in Lewis as I don't believe Lewis can play in a forward line along side Roughie while we also play the resting ruck. If Lewis replaces either Roughie or Ceglar then structurally no problem, but at this stage he is well behind those two and just has to bide his time.

Chad, Rough, Gunston and Big Boy / Cegs should all be able to take a mark up forward and I feel this is structurally enough to keep a Nash playing his forward pressure role. We are a very good forward pressure team right now and Nash is part of that. He obviously has limitations but so would either a Moore or Hanrahan who would seem the closest like for like replacements.

 

[MinerBoy]

No it's not wrong to suggest it's unreasonable. Reasonable means to be fair and sensible, rational. Reasonable is not making or expanding on assumptions that have no rational or statistical backing. There is nothing at all rational about suggesting we replace a player with someone who:

1. Plays a different role
2. Is like cramming a square peg into a round hole from a game plan perspective
3. Is less game ready
4. Is not demonstrably a better option to the incumbent player regardless of the above points

Lewis has hardly been named in the extended squad for crying out loud. Obviously he's not a suitable replacement for Nash in the eyes of the club.

Not to say I don't think he should get a run in the seniors, he should and I hope that he does. I just would think that the club might rather he gets that run in the seniors without playing alongside both Ceglar and McEvoy.

I've outlined in great detail why Nash is playing, what our game plan is and given statistical analysis to back it up. Continuing to say that we need someone different in because "we might take more marks" and Wingard and Breust can stop being attacking to pick up the slack defensively is the definition of unreasonable.

Like you said, we have discussed it before, but I thought I made it extremely clear at that point that our forward set up at the moment is a way to protect and mitigate weaknesses we currently have in the midfield.

North showed on the weekend that if you have a weak midfield and your players cannot shut down defensive rebound, marking players are almost not worth having on the field. Even Ben Brown, when his opportunities were limited by a good defense, became an absolute liability on the field.

Anyway, this whole conversation is a riveting way for me to use some analytics and feel like the degree in data science was worth it, but it's beginning to get a bit repetitive so I'm done with it now.

Ok mate you’re a brain and the only bloke here with a university degree.

All this post tells me is you’re intolerant and have ignored everything that’s been said. Maybe you are a brain.... that’s never actually played the game. Looks like you’ve played it on a computer sim though.


On iPhone using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[MinerBoy]

The Nash questioning/bashing is idiotic. He is 20 years of age, learning the game, and one of the most intriguing players on our list. We are highly unlikely to be contending for a flag this year, so it's important we invest AFL, AFL, games into blokes like Nash so that with Mitchell and some smart free agency recruiting we are in a position to contend in 2020 with blokes like Nash 20 plus games into their career.

There is too many short sighted posters in this forum. Roughy kicked 18 goals in his first 36 games for **** sake.

Which was a fantastic effort with all that time in the backline


On iPhone using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[Brant]

Which was a fantastic effort with all that time in the backline


On iPhone using BigFooty.com mobile app

Roughy to CHB?

 

[burnside5]

Which was a fantastic effort with all that time in the backline


On iPhone using BigFooty.com mobile app

A pretty good source of mine said Jon Patton was going through goal kicking and various runs with Hawks fitness staff the other week at Waverley. Has anyone else heard this? He swears it's true but if so could be a good pick up perhaps.

If only we had good medicos like other clubs to get blokes up and going again...

 

[tige19]

A pretty good source of mine said Jon Patton was going through goal kicking and various runs with Hawks fitness staff the other week at Waverley. Has anyone else heard this? He swears it's true but if so could be a good pick up perhaps.

If only we had good medicos like other clubs to get blokes up and going again...

I think that’s highly illegal, the AFL have anti-tampering rules don’t they? If we were to do that with Patton, it surely wouldn’t be at Waverley!

 

[HODGEYROAD]

A pretty good source of mine said Jon Patton was going through goal kicking and various runs with Hawks fitness staff the other week at Waverley. Has anyone else heard this? He swears it's true but if so could be a good pick up perhaps.

If only we had good medicos like other clubs to get blokes up and going again...

I'm sworn to secrecy. I've made a few blunders in the last couple of months in regards to intel, I've said more than I should have.

 

[HODGEYROAD]

Jack Steven is a big miss for the saints on the weekend, he has the ability to run wild against us , I for one am very glad he won't be taking the field come Sunday.

 

[MinerBoy]

3.20 Sunday is a bloody long time to wait every weekend...……… at least next we play on... Monday.