Preview Round 4: Essendon vs GWS Giants, Docklands, Sunday 9th April @ 2.10pm

[Bombers36]

Heppell and Jones should have been dropped last week - covering the ground is one thing - executing on skill entirely another and both (especially Heppell) made several costly mistakes against the Saints at critical times..Davey injured?

OUT: Jones, Heppell, Davey, Massimo
IN: Voss, Zerk, Hobbs, Hind

Ridley Zerk Kelly
Redman Lav McGrath
Shiel Setterfield Martin
Perkins Langford Caldwell
Stringer Voss Menzie

Draper Parish Merrett

Bench: Durham Hobbs Hind Weideman
SUB: Guelfi


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[VelvetSledge]

OUT: Heppell, Jones
IN: Voss, BZT

Want Hobbs in but don't know who comes out for him. Midfield has been pretty decent

 

[jdstorm]

Didn’t mind Jones thought he worked hard and did some good things

FB Ridley, Baldwin, McGrath

Let’s stop with Ridley being accountable and stop with Kelly being someone who has to use the football. Reward effort at VFL level

HB Redman, Laverde Hobbs

Hobbs in at halfback because none of Hind/Mass/Kelly have made that spot their own. Hobbs is too good for VFL and playing here will develop him as a more versatile player.

C Durham, Merrett, Sheil

Sheil has been good as a wing this season. I’ve been impressed (and not really been a fan previously

HF Caldwell, Jones, Davey

Mobile HF line. All looked pretty good when the team had momentum

FF Menzie, Langford, Perkins

Going for a faster mobile forward line seemed to work vs playing slow talls who couldn’t contested mark.

OB Draper, Parish, Setterfield


Bench: Kelly, Martin, Guelfi, Wiederman as backup ruck.

Sub: Stringer

 

[eth-dog]

Didn’t mind Jones thought he worked hard and did some good things

FB Ridley, Baldwin, McGrath

Let’s stop with Ridley being accountable and stop with Kelly being someone who has to use the football. Reward effort at VFL level

HB Redman, Laverde Hobbs

Hobbs in at halfback because none of Hind/Mass/Kelly have made that spot their own. Hobbs is too good for VFL and playing here will develop him as a more versatile player.

C Durham, Merrett, Sheil

Sheil has been good as a wing this season. I’ve been impressed (and not really been a fan previously

HF Caldwell, Jones, Davey

Mobile HF line. All looked pretty good when the team had momentum

FF Menzie, Langford, Perkins

Going for a faster mobile forward line seemed to work vs playing slow talls who couldn’t contested mark.

OB Draper, Parish, Setterfield


Bench: Kelly, Martin, Guelfi, Wiederman as backup ruck.

Sub: Stringer

Massimo was probably a top 5 player last night and you want to drop him?

 

[Bombers36]

Massimo was probably a top 5 player last night and you want to drop him?

Top 5 - comon eth...Massimo got a few kicks and picks up uncontested possessions but is pretty poor defensively.

 

[eth-dog]

Top 5 - comon eth...Massimo got a few kicks and picks up uncontested possessions but is pretty poor defensively.

His kicking was that good. I agree that he has his defensive troubles but really only Kelly, Shiel, Martin and Caldwell were as good or better.

 

[Howard Moon]

Top 5 - comon eth...Massimo got a few kicks and picks up uncontested possessions but is pretty poor defensively.

Then don't play him as a defender, his leg is too good slicing up the twos, one of the only guys who can constantly pick the difficult passes, along with Martin

 

[eth-dog]

Out: Heppell, Jones
In: Zerk-Thatcher, Voss

McGrath - Zerk-Thatcher - Kelly
Redman - Laverde - Ridley
Martin - Caldwell - Durham
Perkins - Weideman - D'Ambrosio
Menzie - Voss - Stringer
Draper - Shiel - Merrett
Hind - Langford - Parish - Setterfield
Davey

Give Alwyn a mini rest 4 weeks in and use him to impact. Massimo is an elite kick and we should use that as close to goal as possible.

 

[jdstorm]

Massimo was probably a top 5 player last night and you want to drop him?

Kicked well, but otherwise was a one way player. Ideally I’d drop McGrath but that’s not happening.

 

[Bjchan13]

Its time Hep. Go and help develop the kids in the VFL please

 

[ghostdog]

Heppell and Jones should have been dropped last week - covering the ground is one thing - executing on skill entirely another and both (especially Heppell) made several costly mistakes against the Saints at critical times..Davey injured?

OUT: Jones, Heppell, Davey, Massimo
IN: Voss, Zerk, Hobbs, Hind

Ridley Zerk Kelly
Redman Lav McGrath
Shiel Setterfield Martin
Perkins Langford Caldwell
Stringer Voss Menzie

Draper Parish Merrett

Bench: Durham Hobbs Hind Weideman
SUB: Guelfi


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I really think with Mass and McGrath we've got similar types of rebound happening - by foot with a limited burst of speed. Hind in gives us speed to run and carry and break lines. Redman had a mare but won't be dropped on one game. McGrath can blanket an opponent defensively although he didn't focus on that as strongly last night. I'm confident he will. He's putting his defensive game back together.

Davey had blood in his mouth. I think he was taken off as a precaution but I think we're just looking at a split lip so I think he'll be back. Weideman needs to start hitting some packs and bringing the ball to ground though. Wilkie's intercepting was so frustrating, though I haven't watched again so not sure if Weide was being blocked. If Voss kicks on today, I wouldn't expect Jones to be selected next week.

The VFL side needs Heppell's experience.

Edit: Zerk in. I vote yes.

 

[IggypopsTshirt]

McGrath - Zerk-Thatcher - Kelly
Redman - Laverde - Ridley
Martin - Caldwell - Durham
Perkins - Philips - D'Ambrosio
Menzie - Jones - Voss
Draper - Shiel - Merrett
Hobbs - Langford - Parish - Setterfield
Davey

Weideman and Jones cannot play in the same side. Persist with Jones.
Heppell is cooked.
Hobbs just has to be in.
Draper needs Philips as does our tall forward setup.

 

[ghostdog]

Didn’t mind Jones thought he worked hard and did some good things

FB Ridley, Baldwin, McGrath

Let’s stop with Ridley being accountable and stop with Kelly being someone who has to use the football. Reward effort at VFL level

HB Redman, Laverde Hobbs

Hobbs in at halfback because none of Hind/Mass/Kelly have made that spot their own. Hobbs is too good for VFL and playing here will develop him as a more versatile player.

C Durham, Merrett, Sheil

Sheil has been good as a wing this season. I’ve been impressed (and not really been a fan previously

HF Caldwell, Jones, Davey

Mobile HF line. All looked pretty good when the team had momentum

FF Menzie, Langford, Perkins

Going for a faster mobile forward line seemed to work vs playing slow talls who couldn’t contested mark.

OB Draper, Parish, Setterfield


Bench: Kelly, Martin, Guelfi, Wiederman as backup ruck.

Sub: Stringer

Wow. Kelly was our best against St Kilda and stood up time and time again.

 

[naraku]

In: BZT, Hobbs
Out: Heppell, Jones.

If Davey doesn't come up or is rested, Voss to replace him.


B:Ridley-BZT-Kelly
HB:McGrath Laverde-Redman
C:Martin-Caldwell-Durham
HF: Perkins-Langford-Davey
F:Stringer-Weidemann-Shiel
R: Draper-Setterfield-Merrett
IC: Parish-DAmbro-Hobbs-Menzie

 

[TheGreatBarryB]

Phillips has to come in. Probably for Weideman. Hopefully BZT comes back and Langford replaces Jones

 

[jdstorm]

Wow. Kelly was our best against St Kilda and stood up time and time again.

He was in the right spot because that’s the position he was playing. Constantly used the ball poorly or saw his delayed decision making lead to long kicks down the line against a set defence.

Classic good stats bad team game.

 

[naraku]

It's not impossible to be 3-1 after the first month.

 

[ghostdog]

He was in the right spot because that’s the position he was playing. Constantly used the ball poorly or saw his delayed decision making lead to long kicks down the line against a set defence.

Classic good stats bad team game.

86% DE says he frequently used the ball well. 5th best user in the team last night. Looks more like a classic good stats, ill-informed post to me.

 

[JT_the_Man]

In - BZT, Voss
Out - Heppell, Jones

Harry needs confidence and Voss is kicking bags for fun. Deserves an opportunity.

Wouldn’t mind trying to squeeze Flip in as well but I’m not sure who makes way.

 

[jdstorm]

86% DE says he frequently used the ball well. 5th best user in the team last night. Looks more like a classic good stats, ill-informed post to me.

Does it? 86%DE says he used the ball safely. I wouldn’t say that’s the same as using the ball well.

Kicking the ball over 40M to a contest is considered an effective disposal. I wouldn’t personally call it it a good one in the context of Essendons talls.

Especially if that kick came after waiting until the opposition could reset their defence.

 

[TheGrizz]

Massimo was probably a top 5 player last night and you want to drop him?

He can't be a top 5 player last night when he was the liability he was in defence.

Ball use was fantastic, but his 1v1 stuff was the stuff of nightmares.

 

[ghostdog]

Does it? 86%DE says he used the ball safely. I wouldn’t say that’s the same as using the ball well.

Kicking the ball over 40M to a contest is considered an effective disposal. I wouldn’t personally call it it a good one in the context of Essendons talls.

Especially if that kick came after waiting until the opposition could reset their defence.

I've never seen that stipulated anywhere. Is that your criteria for an effective disposal?

If you're a defender and you're not turning the ball over in your D50, I'd say that's using the ball well.

His DE was 86%. 86% of the time he didn't turn the ball over. That's a win.

 

[citizen-erased]

Out: hepp, lav, weid, stringer, davey (rest time)
In: baldwin, zerk, flip, hobbs, voss

Ridley - zerk - kelly
Redman - baldwin - mcgrath
Martin - setterfield - durham
Langford - jones - caldwell
Menzie - flip - perkins
Draper - merrett - Shiel
Parish - massimo - hind - hobbs
Voss

This is my day after, wont happen wish

 

[Lore]

I've never seen that stipulated anywhere. Is that your criteria for an effective disposal?

If you're a defender and you're not turning the ball over in your D50, I'd say that's using the ball well.

His DE was 86%. 86% of the time he didn't turn the ball over. That's a win.

The 40m+ thing is a thing. Has to go to a teammate or more than 40m regardless of whether it goes to anyone to count as effective.

The problem imo is that we have a really simplistic stat that frames effective or not effective as a binary. Whereas in reality there are degrees of effectiveness, kicking to a teammate who takes a mark, kicking to general advantage of a teammate who has to beat a man and run onto it, kicking to a 2v1 contest or kicking out into space 60m away and between three opponents are very different things.

And they are also going to be weighted differently depending on your game plan, where running onto it and getting away may be more useful if your teammate is a pacey winger in a high-pressure game plan versus taking a mark on the wing to give time for the structures to move in a precision kicking game style.

Champion Data has way more stats than we are able to access, we plebs can't even pay for them, lucky to get an AFL record or an article in the age that might cherry pick a couple (like origins of scoring chains and stuff). The clubs can get them but only if they pay, despite it being their own data. One of the big upsides with Brad Scott is he had access to the whole lot at AFL house and knows what he's looking at with all of that stuff.

 

[jdstorm]

I've never seen that stipulated anywhere. Is that your criteria for an effective disposal?

If you're a defender and you're not turning the ball over in your D50, I'd say that's using the ball well.

His DE was 86%. 86% of the time he didn't turn the ball over. That's a win.

That criteria is what champion data uses to determine an effective disposal for SuperCoach

Personally I don’t think not turning the ball over is a good way to measure a players impact. Especially when it’s defenders kicking backwards/moving laterally.

Correlation isn’t causation. Ie a good user will have high disposal efficiency, but high disposal efficiency doesn’t necessarily mean it was used well.

I’m more interested in Disposals to advantage (not tracked on AFL.com.au),
If a players kicking efficiency is better or worse than expected for those same types of kicks, (not tracked), expected points from a particular position on the field. Ect. (Not tracked that I could find)