Preview Round 4: Sydney vs Essendon, SCG, Thursday 08/04/2021 @ 7:20 AEST

Who will have the higher score by full time?


  • Total voters
    55
  • Poll closed .

Remove this Banner Ad

Status
Not open for further replies.

eth-dog

Premium Platinum
Jan 11, 2007
94,456
50,471
Melbourne
AFL Club
Essendon
Other Teams
Coburg Lions, All Boston sides
Observations

Sydney: The Swans completely shellshocked the reigning premiers in Richmond, an 8 goal second quarter broke it open and they held on after that to record a massive 45 point win. Callum Mills has been impressive since moving into the midfield, collecting 31 disposals this week whilst Tom Papley was unstoppable up forward with 4 goals.

Essendon: Had a huge win against St. Kilda, kicking 6 goals in the first, second and last quarters to put up a 75 point win. Darcy Parish had the best game of his career, collecting 34 disposals, 10 clearances and 9 marks. Cale Hooker and Jake Stringer were dominant up front with 5 and 4 goals respectively.


Head to Head (last 5)

Sydney 2-3 Essendon


Form Guide

Sydney: 2-0
Essendon: 0-2


Sportsbet odds

Sydney: $1.26
Essendon: $3.90
Line: 23.5 ($1.90)


Possible sides

Sydney vs Essendon

FB: Jayden Laverde - Brandon Zerk-Thatcher - Nick Hind

FF: Sam Reid - Logan McDonald - Tom Papley
HB: Jordan Ridley - Aaron Francis - Dyson Heppell
HF: Isaac Heeney - Lance Franklin - Errol Gulden
MF: Nikolas Cox - Andrew McGrath - Zachary Merrett
MF: Justin McInerney - Luke Parker - Nick Blakey
HF: Will Snelling - Harrison Jones - Alec Waterman
HB: Jake Lloyd - Dane Rampe - Braeden Campbell
FF: Jake Stringer - Cale Hooker - Anthony McDonald-Tipungwutii
FB: Harry Cunningham - Tom McCartin - Jordan Dawson
OB: Peter Wright - Darcy Parish - Kyle Langford
OB: Tom Hickey - Callum Mills - Oliver Florent
IC: Matthew Guelfi - Archie Perkins - Devon Smith - Brayden Ham
IC: Chad Warner - George Hewett - Josh Kennedy - Sam Wicks
IS: Tom Cutler
IS: Will Hayward

Essendon in: Dyson Heppell; out: Mason Redman (hamstring)
Sydney in: Lance Franklin, Will Hayward (sub); Out: Hayden McLean (omit), Jack Bell (sub)


Sydney defence vs Essendon forward line

Essendon's forward line has had two good games so far, averaging a goal 27.7% of the time it's entered their forward 50 so far. Sydney hae done pretty well so far, conceding a goal 22.1% of the time it enters their defensive 50. Essendon brought Jake Stringer back into their side last week, which will be important for someone like Harrison Jones, as it'll take someone like Dane Rampe to cover the powerful medium forward. Cale Hooker will be up against young Tom McCartin, who has been a revelation since moving into defence, finding his niche back there as opposed to playing forward. The interesting one will be how Harry Cunningham deals with Anthony McDonald-Tipungwuti, who has started the year in fine form so far.


Midfield/rucks battle

Both teams have struggled to win clearances so far this year, the Swans ranked 13th in clearance difference, the Bombers 15th. However Sydney are 4th in contested possession difference to Essendon's 16th, showing that they're stronger at winning disputed ball around the ground. Given the injuries to Essendon through the middle it isn't a surprise, the Dons really only having two of their first choice inside group in Andrew McGrath and Darcy Parish, and they'll need support from the likes of outside midfielder Kyle Langford, second gamer Archie Perkins and Jack of All Trades Matt Guelfi, which isn't the strongest inside group on paper, whilst Sydney have close to their best grouping with Luke Parker, Oliver Florent, Callum Mills, George Hewett and Josh Kennedy all running through there. On the outside the Dons will be hoping to get a better match up with someone like Zach Merrett adding plenty of class, alongside young players Nikolas Cox and Brayden Ham, opposed to the likes of Justin McInerney and Nick Blakey. Rucks wise, expect Sydney's big man Tom Hickey to have an advantage over forward/ruck Peter Wright.


Essendon defence vs Sydney forward line

Sydney started the year with a bang up front, kicking a goal 29.7% of the time it enters forward 50 so far. Essendon's defence has been very leaky at the start of this year, conceding a goal 24.4% of the time it enters their defensive 50. Most of the attention will be on champion forward Lance Franklin, who coincidentally has a fantastic record against Essendon, likely to be manned up by Aaron Francis, which isn't really ideal but the Dons don't have much choice. Last year's pick 4 Logan McDonald will probably go against Brandon Zerk-Thatcher, whilst star small forward Tom Papley will go head to head with Nick Hind, who has been the #1 small defender for the Dons to go along with his run and dash.


X-Factor Player

Errol Gulden is a young gun who has burst onto the scene as a forward who can rotate onto a wing. His speed and skills will be vital for the Swans over the journey, expect him to light up the SCG this week and many times after that.


Key stat

Sydney: Clearance difference. Control the middle and Essendon won't get enough scoring opportunities to win the game.

Essendon: Forward conversion. Essendon can win this game, despite all the predictions, but they need to capitalise against an undersized Sydney defence.


Tip

Sydney are looking a very strong outfit, should get over the line here. Swans by 17
 

Log in to remove this ad.

JayJ20

Brownlow Medallist
Aug 28, 2016
14,426
20,421
AFL Club
Essendon
As good as that win was, we have to keep going.

St Kilda were rubbish all over the ground. Zero pressure on us all game. Sydney will be much tougher.

Changes:

Out: Redman
In: Heppell
 

Yoda_

Hall of Famer
May 6, 2007
30,564
15,480
South East Suburbs
AFL Club
Essendon
Other Teams
Tottenham Hotspurs, Melbourne Vixen
As good as that win was, we have to keep going.

St Kilda were rubbish all over the ground. Zero pressure on us all game. Sydney will be much tougher.

Changes:

Out: Redman
In: Heppell
That’s something people should realise about the Saints game. They had 32 recognised tackles for the game.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 

(Log in to remove this ad.)

blitzer

Norm Smith Medallist
Aug 27, 2006
6,931
7,705
House
AFL Club
Essendon
Redman for Heppell is obvious. The big choice for mine is
a) Do we need a ruckman?
b) If a) is yes then do we drop a tall forward as playing Hooker, Wright, Jones and Stringer seems a bit over the top?

Seeing that its a 5 day break I'm going to suggest something that will be highly (un)popular.
Rest Hooker who copped a big corkie and may struggle to get up and bring in either Phillips or Nick Bryan.
 

Cup_o_Jobe

Team Captain
Aug 9, 2017
333
401
AFL Club
Essendon
Other Teams
Tottenham Hotspur
I like the idea of blooding Bryan sooner or later during this Draper-less run, and if Hooker does need a rest it is an obvious swap, but if Hooker pulls up OK I'd leave it as is and maybe give Bryan a nice easy start to the career on Anzac Day. Get him to tag Grundy. Good learnings. [/Whoosh]

Otherwise the Hepp/Redman swap may be all that we need. Will want to ensure those who took knocks in the game (Hind/Francis/Hooker) all pull up OK and that String-dog is ready to back-it-up.

Would love to see them swap someone else in to 23rd man, I get nervous every-time someone looks injured primarily at the thought of Cutler coming onto the field and Egging it up.
 

maskmcgee

Premiership Player
Feb 25, 2017
3,285
3,296
The Windy Apple
AFL Club
Essendon
St Kilda were a bunch of witches hats, yet they still scored 70 points and had the same number of inside 50's. They played worse than North Melbourne did in the first half against the Dogs, and while we don't have the same calibur of players, we really should of been able to win that by 100+. How many wins like yesterday's have we had in the last 10 years where we showed up the nexrt week and played the same way? And the week after that? We might be good for a few games, but just wait until we play a team when we're favourites, watch us get carved up with no effort whatsoever. We won't win this week, but all I care about is we bring the same level of effort, pressure, basic skills, and do it for the whole game. If we're still doing that consistantly by say, round 10, and we're dropping anyone who dosen't play that way, I'll get excited. We come out and play like Richmond did on Saturday, then last week will all have been a waste.
 

JayJ20

Brownlow Medallist
Aug 28, 2016
14,426
20,421
AFL Club
Essendon
St Kilda were a bunch of witches hats, yet they still scored 70 points and had the same number of inside 50's. They played worse than North Melbourne did in the first half against the Dogs, and while we don't have the same calibur of players, we really should of been able to win that by 100+. How many wins like yesterday's have we had in the last 10 years where we showed up the nexrt week and played the same way? And the week after that? We might be good for a few games, but just wait until we play a team when we're favourites, watch us get carved up with no effort whatsoever. We won't win this week, but all I care about is we bring the same level of effort, pressure, basic skills, and do it for the whole game. If we're still doing that consistantly by say, round 10, and we're dropping anyone who dosen't play that way, I'll get excited. We come out and play like Richmond did on Saturday, then last week will all have been a waste.
Do you even see the side we're putting out? It's almost a given that we don't play as well as yesterday because we're a young and inexperienced side. Young sides tend to be wildly inconsistent.

I'm hoping for another 4 quarter effort, but a flying Sydney in Sydney off a 5-day break is going to be tough.
 

BomberTime

Club Legend
Feb 11, 2010
2,498
1,663
AFL Club
Essendon
Other Teams
Manchester City San Antonio Spurs
With a 5 day break, I would not be surprised if Heppell doesn’t get up for this game as well.
Cutler probably gets a full game for Redman.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.

Remove this Banner Ad