Preview Round 4, 'The Harley Reid Cup'- Geelong vs Hawthorn, Monday 10 Apr @ 3:20pm MCG

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Come Monday 10 April we'll be looking for our first win in 199 days when we face a traditional rival in Hawthorn in our now traditional timeslot of 3:20pm on Easter Monday

For the best part of a decade this clash was between sides battling it out at the pointy end of the ladder, but this week has a slightly different feel to things as we head into round 4 with just a solidarity win between these two teams and them sitting at 17th & 18th on the ladder - but if history tells us anything, when these two teams face off on Easter Monday that ladder positions mean nothing and that it'll be 120 minutes of two teams taking it right up to each other

We're currently sitting at 0 - 3 in our premiership defence and will be wanting to turn things around sooner than later, and start to show the cohesion we saw from the playing group last year. So while it's easy to fall into the trap of wanting to throw out the baby with the bath water & start from scratch, it's doubtful that's what we'll see based on how the coaching group has gone about things over the past decade

Scott has hinted at the return of Duncan after a calf injury/issue over summer delayed the start to his season, while JK returned via the weekend after recovering from a concussion sustained in our preseason clash with Brisbane. And it could be a timely return for JK after SDK was subbed out against the Suns after his own head knock

Though we do have a few others who don't look quite right themselves with the likes of Tommy Hawkins, Stengle & Close all down on their output from the 2022 season, but after a 100 point thrashing in the VFL it raises questions if we have the players in waiting who are putting the pressure on the senior guys to perform, and are ready to step up & play on the MCG on Monday


So it's our traditional Easter Monday clash against our traditional rival in Hawthorn, but with both teams finding themselves in unfamiliar positions on the ladder - changes are bound to be announced, but just what will that be and how will our club respond to finding themselves in the unfamiliar positron of 0 - 3
 

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A month ago, I thought this would be a smashing, now I'm not sure we can win it. Hawks supposedly have the worst midfield in the AFL, yet they'll probably run circles around ours.

Hope I'm wrong, but lose this and pack up for the year as we're cooked.
 
Hawthorn will be trying to run us off our feet.

Based on what I’ve seen of our fitness over the first three weeks, they’re every chance of succeeding 😬

Duncan will be a huge inclusion and means C Guthrie will go back to a pure mid role. Hawks seem to use Maginness to tag, so it’s likely Guth will have plenty of attention.

I hope to see Parfitt in for Bruhn and Rohan play a full game. Stanley in for Ceglar is non-negotiable.

Win this one and the WCE game seems likely and we will look to square the ledger in the GF rematch at home.

Lose this one and I dunno…
 
10 goal loss to Essendon, 12 goal loss to Sydney. The only side they beat has won 4 games since covid lockdowns stopped being a thing
I’m referring to our last game and their last game.

Bring what we dished up against the Suns and we lose.
That form isn’t beating anyone.
 
Geelong Football Club next Monday:


Ralph Wiggum Danger GIF
 

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Head on chopping block time.

If we were in a transition/rebuild phase then there isnt much to say, play the kids, bring in more of them in fact, rotate the older guys to keep some of them fresh for later in the season and see which way the wind blows. Maybe we make finals, maybe we dont. If we do make finals then we make up the numbers but it'll be great experience for the kids at this early stage of their careers. If that is how this season ends up i can understand that, so long as we make the most of it.

But if, like me, you believe the issues are down to fitness and game plan, and that if we get both right then we can still challenge this year, then the discussion becomes a lot more complicated.

Fitness obviously is what it is, i have trust that the club will get that right/is getting that right.

As for tactical: Last year we got a lot out of our ruck set up, Stanley has never set the world on fire, but the way we used him around the ground created a lot of headaches for the opposition. Pushing him down back created the extra man and enabled our dangerous players like Stewart, 2E and Smith to push further up the ground. And with the option of Blicavs to pinch hit in the ruck and Hawkins doing it up forward, our ruck combination, while not individually great, as a unit became world beaters. I wonder if the addition of Sav into this mix has (or is having) the potential to do more harm than good.

Sav isnt a dangerous player in his own right, he is slow and lacks clean disposal, his body work is poor but he can jump to spoil/mark. As an addition to the team he brings little, and compromises our leg speed in transition. While he is there, using the ruckman as the spare man in defence potentially tips the scales too far into the slow bracket, meaning we can be easily exposed as oppositions transition off half back. And if we dont use Stanley in that role then he has little else to do and becomes a liability in other areas of the ground that the opposition can and have exploited. And while playing the likes of 2E, Smith, and Stewart further up the ground for longer periods of the game may sound good in theory, in practice none of these players give us enough around the contest to justify playing them in a more midfield focused role. 2E especially has been played out of the middle more so far this season, for little gain.

The issue is how do we balance all of SDK/Hawkins/Cameron/Stanley/Sav/Blicavs in the same team. In my view, the addition of Sav makes us top heavy, for little practical gain.

Therefore, Sav should be dropped for a midfielder (Parfitt is the obvious choice here as the next one up).

Pushing 2E, Stewart and Smith further behind the ball gives us valuable experience and composure in an area of the ground we are being exposed in regularly. And returns Stanley and Blicavs back to the role they did so well last year, there is no reason why that cant be succesful again.

The next question is can you play all of Zuthrie, Duncan, Bowes, 2E and MOC? My answer is no, and with Duncan to come in the obvious answer is to drop MOC and make that switch. I have Bowes ahead of him anyway as a better player in that sweeping half back/wing role.

Zuthrie makes way for Kolo, as with Duncan and Bowes in the team i just dont see a role for Zuthrie.

Given all that word salad, my changes for Hawthorn assuming fitness:

Sav out Parfitt IN
MOC out Duncan IN
Zuthrie out Kolo IN
 
Head on chopping block time.

If we were in a transition/rebuild phase then there isnt much to say, play the kids, bring in more of them in fact, rotate the older guys to keep some of them fresh for later in the season and see which way the wind blows. Maybe we make finals, maybe we dont. If we do make finals then we make up the numbers but it'll be great experience for the kids at this early stage of their careers. If that is how this season ends up i can understand that, so long as we make the most of it.

But if, like me, you believe the issues are down to fitness and game plan, and that if we get both right then we can still challenge this year, then the discussion becomes a lot more complicated.

Fitness obviously is what it is, i have trust that the club will get that right/is getting that right.

As for tactical: Last year we got a lot out of our ruck set up, Stanley has never set the world on fire, but the way we used him around the ground created a lot of headaches for the opposition. Pushing him down back created the extra man and enabled our dangerous players like Stewart, 2E and Smith to push further up the ground. And with the option of Blicavs to pinch hit in the ruck and Hawkins doing it up forward, our ruck combination, while not individually great, as a unit became world beaters. I wonder if the addition of Sav into this mix has (or is having) the potential to do more harm than good.

Sav isnt a dangerous player in his own right, he is slow and lacks clean disposal, his body work is poor but he can jump to spoil/mark. As an addition to the team he brings little, and compromises our leg speed in transition. While he is there, using the ruckman as the spare man in defence potentially tips the scales too far into the slow bracket, meaning we can be easily exposed as oppositions transition off half back. And if we dont use Stanley in that role then he has little else to do and becomes a liability in other areas of the ground that the opposition can and have exploited. And while playing the likes of 2E, Smith, and Stewart further up the ground for longer periods of the game may sound good in theory, in practice none of these players give us enough around the contest to justify playing them in a more midfield focused role. 2E especially has been played out of the middle more so far this season, for little gain.

The issue is how do we balance all of SDK/Hawkins/Cameron/Stanley/Sav/Blicavs in the same team. In my view, the addition of Sav makes us top heavy, for little practical gain.

Therefore, Sav should be dropped for a midfielder (Parfitt is the obvious choice here as the next one up).

Pushing 2E, Stewart and Smith further behind the ball gives us valuable experience and composure in an area of the ground we are being exposed in regularly. And returns Stanley and Blicavs back to the role they did so well last year, there is no reason why that cant be succesful again.

The next question is can you play all of Zuthrie, Duncan, Bowes, 2E and MOC? My answer is no, and with Duncan to come in the obvious answer is to drop MOC and make that switch. I have Bowes ahead of him anyway as a better player in that sweeping half back/wing role.

Zuthrie makes way for Kolo, as with Duncan and Bowes in the team i just dont see a role for Zuthrie.

Given all that word salad, my changes for Hawthorn assuming fitness:

Sav out Parfitt IN
MOC out Duncan IN
Zuthrie out Kolo IN
So with SDK and Sav out our tallest defender would be 193 and he is coming back from injury lay-off.

Zuth and MOC were in the best handful of players last week.
 
Obviously 2 changes will be Stanley for Ceglar and Kolodjashnij for DeKonning ( concussion)

Chris Scott said Duncan will be in, but Duncan has always seem to play well coming back from Injury... I would replace him with Tuhoy as his been very poor

I would also like Close have a run in the VFL and give Dempsey a chance

Bruhn is another one that hasn't done much, and I'd like to swap him with either Simpson or Parfitt..

So if I made the call it be..
Out - DeKonning inj, Ceglar, Tuhoy, Close, Bruhn Omitted
In - Kolodjashnij, Stanley, Dempsey, Duncan, Simpson/Parfitt


But I think they will go with
Out - Ceglar, DeKonning, Bruhn
In - Stanley, Kolodjashnij, Duncan
 
So with SDK and Sav out our tallest defender would be 193 and he is coming back from injury lay-off.

Assuming SDK plays, as i havent heard anything official from the club that he will miss, if not then Sav stays in for SDK, but that is temporary.

Zuth and MOC were in the best handful of players last week.

Zuth and MOC were no better or worse than roughly 20 other players out there on Sunday. In that they were all s**t. Cameron and Stewart were the only players that could walk off that field having done their job well. My issue is structurally they do not fit with the team as it will evolve in 2023.
 
Assuming SDK plays, as i havent heard anything official from the club that he will miss, if not then Sav stays in for SDK, but that is temporary.

7 News reported tonight that SDK will miss with concussion protocols but has pulled up well.

Bartel was also quoted saying we should rest Hawk for a fortnight and bring him in for the R6 Swans game.
 
So with SDK and Sav out our tallest defender would be 193 and he is coming back from injury lay-off.

Zuth and MOC were in the best handful of players last week.
If we go with the same forward line as last week, we only have a resting ruck neither of which are that mobile then Fergus Greene is our 2nd tallest at 187

You can go short this week
 
It’s sad how I’m not confident about this game.

A month ago I would’ve said 100+ Point win to us, now I’m thinking we won’t get it done.
 
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