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Play Nice Scott Morrison 2.0 - How Long? Part 8 - Lose Unit. Game Over, Bulldozer. Cont in Part 9

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May 13, 2008
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Part 5 is here:

Part 6 is here:

Part 7 is here:

Part 9 is here:
 
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Looking at the Russian military's approach, I'm not sure that the Ukrainian government will be in a position to mount a full-scale war for very long - maybe not even a fortnight.

The war proper will likely be over in a fortnight, thus not allowing ScoMo enough time to properly work on and execute his 'statesman' schtick (though I don't think Australians trust him enough to buy it) and Australians will only be distintly aware of any insurgency, if at all. They WILL be aware of a spike in oil prices though!

Yeah. I thought the Ukrainians would put up a bigger fight, or Russia's incursion would have been more limited to a gradual build up of conflict in the east.

It looks as if Russian Airborne troops have already captured an airport just outside of Kiev. Give it a day or two and they'll be able to build up enough forces to occupy the Capital and force the current government out. This could be over in an incredibly short amount of time, then Putin stops and sues for peace (unlikely to militarily occupy a nation of 44 million people), and then becomes weeks of uneasy truces and negotiations, and it gradually drops off Australian news's interest. Then back to election game normal.
 

Back in 2013, we had a car industry. But the Coalition hate unionised workplaces so they told them to piss off. They pretended it was about subsidies but that is obviously not the case as they find plenty to subsidise the fossil fuel, agriculture and armaments industries.
 

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It's more that the war will erase people's memories of the pandemic pretty quick. The negativity of the bushfires was erased very soon after Covid started, and Morrison rode the popularity in a "time of crisis". Then as time dragged on people realised he was all piss and wind. Now he'll ride a popularity wave due to "standing up to the bully Putin", but it will only last a few months or so while the crisis goes on. Problem for the ALP is he will be calling the election in the next few months.
Nah. People aren’t going to forget his terrible handling of the bushfires AND COVID, just because there’s a conflict in the Ukraine.

He might still win, but it won’t be because of this.
 
The Pandemic brought two years of lockdowns and travel bans. Mass disruption. With a war in the Ukraine there won't be any noticeable difference to the lives of Australians despite a temporary spike in fuel prices.

They may fall in behind a clown screaming "war, war, war" if they get caught in the propaganda, but they're not going to suffer the consequences.

Just look at that press conference just completed. Morrison is "Standing up to Russian leaders, generals and mercenaries". it will make zero difference to Russia's actions, but it makes him look strong when the last few weeks has been full of stories about how weak a leader he is and how his own party hates him. From today on he's a "strong leader" leading a "strong unified team" standing up to Putin.
Nah. People have had a gutfull of his piss and wind. You don’t suddenly become a strong decisive leader because of events on the other side of the world that you have no control over.
 
Commentators on ABC News now while saying they're not sure how it will play out it feels as if a "9/11" moment in the upcoming election has occurred, ie a fundamental shift in the narrative of the campaign is going to take place. And made reference to how the Howard government's expected loss in 2001 was turned around due to it
Well all I can say is you can only conclude they’re too young to remember 9/11. Nothing whatsoever of 9/11 about this.
 
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Commentators on ABC News now while saying they're not sure how it will play out it feels as if a "9/11" moment in the upcoming election has occurred, ie a fundamental shift in the narrative of the campaign is going to take place. And made reference to how the Howard government's expected loss in 2001 was turned around due to it
Unlike 9/11 there's not wall to wall coverage of it.

The news services last night covered it for 5 minutes and went onto other news.

You may find it it drags on it will be bumped down the run sheet.
I wouldn't be surprised it does once the initial fighting dies down.
 
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Unlike 9/11 there's not wall to wall coverage of it.

The news services last night covered it for 5 minutes and went onto other news.

You may find it it drags on it will be bumped down the run sheet.
I wouldn't be surprised it does once the initial fighting dies down.
It will just fizz out

With NATO and the USA not committing ground forces the front door was opened for Russia

In short the West don't give a fork about the Ukraine, they are just using it to get to Putin
 

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But won't the Saudi's step up and pump more oil?

Easy money for them


Saudi Arabia is signaling it isn’t willing to pump more oil and won’t push for changes to an agreement with Russia and other producers that has kept a lid on oil production levels.

This has Washington concerned as gasoline prices rise and tensions with Russia over Ukraine fuel market uncertainty.

The Biden administration dispatched Brett McGurk, the National Security Council’s Middle East coordinator, and the State Department’s energy envoy, Amos Hochstein, to Riyadh on Wednesday to talk about a range of issues — chief among them the ongoing war in Yemen and global energy supplies.

Asked by reporters in Washington whether the U.S. officials were also urging Saudi Arabia to pump more crude to alleviate high oil prices, White House press secretary Jen Psaki said she did not have more details on the meeting.

A White House official said the two U.S. officials had not asked the Saudis to increase oil production at their meetings in Riyadh. The person insisted on anonymity to discuss the meetings and said the conversation involved regional issues and energy security impacts on the global economy.

Two Saudi officials told The Associated Press the Saudi energy minister informed the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, or OPEC, of the kingdom’s commitment to the group’s current roadmap of cautious monthly increases.

They spoke anonymously because they were not authorized to brief journalists.

King Salman also said as much in a call last week with President Joe Biden.

According to a Saudi readout of the call, the king highlighted the “the importance of maintaining the agreement” that is in place between OPEC, the oil cartel led by Saudi, and Russia.
 

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Saudi Arabia is signaling it isn’t willing to pump more oil and won’t push for changes to an agreement with Russia and other producers that has kept a lid on oil production levels.

This has Washington concerned as gasoline prices rise and tensions with Russia over Ukraine fuel market uncertainty.

The Biden administration dispatched Brett McGurk, the National Security Council’s Middle East coordinator, and the State Department’s energy envoy, Amos Hochstein, to Riyadh on Wednesday to talk about a range of issues — chief among them the ongoing war in Yemen and global energy supplies.

Asked by reporters in Washington whether the U.S. officials were also urging Saudi Arabia to pump more crude to alleviate high oil prices, White House press secretary Jen Psaki said she did not have more details on the meeting.

A White House official said the two U.S. officials had not asked the Saudis to increase oil production at their meetings in Riyadh. The person insisted on anonymity to discuss the meetings and said the conversation involved regional issues and energy security impacts on the global economy.

Two Saudi officials told The Associated Press the Saudi energy minister informed the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, or OPEC, of the kingdom’s commitment to the group’s current roadmap of cautious monthly increases.

They spoke anonymously because they were not authorized to brief journalists.

King Salman also said as much in a call last week with President Joe Biden.

According to a Saudi readout of the call, the king highlighted the “the importance of maintaining the agreement” that is in place between OPEC, the oil cartel led by Saudi, and Russia.
Well let's see which is more important to them, an agreement with Russia or Cash

I'm betting on Cash
 
I agree with this.

As well, my recollection is that the big swing back to the Coalition happened before 9/11 and was related to Tampa.

It was kind of a 1,2 punch. I started to pick up on the zeitgeist after Tampa but the morning of 9/11 I actually said out loud to a friend - you know this means Howard will be re-elected?

I’m not sure this works for Morrison though. He has nothing of Howard’s charisma. I think enough people have seen through the marketing charade & realize he stands for nothing.


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Well let's see which is more important to them, an agreement with Russia or Cash

I'm betting on Cash

they actually earn more money with tight supply. its against their interests financially to open the tap


also the saudis are facing the issues of falling oil reserves, and falls in govt incomes (hence they have actually started bringing in some taxes)

in the past they juiced supply and lost $$$ to appease their military supplier in the USA. this need is a lot less now (because 9/11 and Yemen has shown the Saudis that they can do whatever the **** they want, and the USA wont do shit)
 
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