Stopping the Tigers 2020

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Jez1974

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Oct 8, 2019
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The argument that I was making was more related to a three-peat. If Richmond wins in 2020, then I still think that we can contend in 2021, but I think that it would be a little tough with a core group of players at the listed ages above. I personally think the Premiership sweet spot is when your core players are at the 24-29 range as a group.

We may not have a problem in a year like 2024-2025 when our current youth would have matured, but I think the 2021-2023 years are not looking like Premiership years for us even if we end up contending. I don’t know if we will replace them in time as they drop in output/retire and it wouldn’t be easy beating teams who’d have their core group of players at or building to their prime like a Carlton, Brisbane, Melbourne or Bulldogs type.

It’s like comparing Hawthorn of 2013-2015 against the 2013-2015 team of Richmond in the years of 2017 and 2018. Hawthorn finished top 4 in 2018 and were contenders, but they obviously couldn’t go with a Richmond team who had a core hitting their prime. The Geelong team of 2007-2011 were fantastic, but couldn’t really go with the younger Hawthorn team in 2013-2015 (although Hawthorn weren’t really that young in 2015). That’s how I would see the 2021 team of Richmond in their current trajectory.

Geelong have transitioned right, but they have been unable to bring in enough talent/class to win a Premiership since 2011 even if it is only slightly.

My point is that I expect some of our core players that are 30 and over to reduce in output by 2021 and I don’t think we’ll replace the gap they leave quick enough unless we do a couple of huge trades in the post-2020 off-season. Even then, we’re probably still up against it when it comes to doing a three-peat should we win this season unfortunately.
Too many players 30 or thereabouts! Agreed
 

Tiger Toffee

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Jack Riewoldt and Shane Edwards would be 33 as well. We have an older core than Brisbane and Bulldogs. Once players hit their 30s, the decline can come rapidly.

Look at how old the ages of these players are at the end of this year:

Dustin Martin - 29
David Astbury - 29
Nathan Broad - 27
Josh Caddy - 28
Trent Cotchin - 30
Shane Edwards - 32
Dylan Grimes - 29
Tom Lynch - 28
Bachar Houli - 32
Kane Lambert - 29
Marlion Pickett - 29
Dion Prestia - 28
Jack Riewoldt - 32

There are a lot of core players on this list. They are all 30 years old and older by the end of 2021 with the exception of Broad. If you don’t think that this is a list of core players that are ageing, then I don’t know what else to say.

The only core players that aren’t on here are Castagna, Rioli, Stack, Nankervis, Vlastuin and possibly McIntosh.

It might be comparative to teams like Geelong, West Coast and Collingwood, but they may not be our competition in 2021. It may be a younger core like Brisbane, Melbourne or Bulldogs, which is why I think there is only a slim chance of us doing a three-peat. If we wanted to do one, we should have won in 2018 IMO.

We should worry about the B2B first though. That’s hard enough as it is. If and when we do, then we’ll get a clearer picture of where these players are at.
End of September 2021 is only next year, they are not going to rapidly age and fall in a heap in 20 months, hawks had six players aged 31+ in their 2015 flag and I repeat Houli will be the only player aged 33 by end of September 2021 if he plays on off course.

Yes they are getting older but at least we are cashing in while they are and while we are I couldn't give two hoots how old we are which by the way is the 10th oldest in the comp.
 

Lsta062

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End of September 2021 is only next year, they are not going to rapidly age and fall in a heap in 20 months, hawks had six players aged 31+ in their 2015 flag and I repeat Houli will be the only player aged 33 by end of September 2021 if he plays on off course.

Yes they are getting older but at least we are cashing in while they are and while we are I couldn't give two hoots how old we are which by the way is the 10th oldest in the comp.
It’s not the average age of the list that’s old. It’s the average age of our core that is heading there.

I hope it doesn’t happen to us, but the decline can come very rapidly with players over 30. Then there are players like Ablett who stay strong after hitting 30. I guess we just have to wait and see.
 

juss

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Jack Riewoldt and Shane Edwards would be 33 as well. We have an older core than Brisbane and Bulldogs. Once players hit their 30s, the decline can come rapidly.

Look at how old the ages of these players are at the end of this year:

Dustin Martin - 29
David Astbury - 29
Nathan Broad - 27
Josh Caddy - 28
Trent Cotchin - 30
Shane Edwards - 32
Dylan Grimes - 29
Tom Lynch - 28
Bachar Houli - 32
Kane Lambert - 29
Marlion Pickett - 29
Dion Prestia - 28
Jack Riewoldt - 32

There are a lot of core players on this list. They are all 30 years old and older by the end of 2021 with the exception of Broad. If you don’t think that this is a list of core players that are ageing, then I don’t know what else to say.

The only core players that aren’t on here are Castagna, Rioli, Stack, Nankervis, Vlastuin and possibly McIntosh.

It might be comparative to teams like Geelong, West Coast and Collingwood, but they may not be our competition in 2021. It may be a younger core like Brisbane, Melbourne or Bulldogs, which is why I think there is only a slim chance of us doing a three-peat. If we wanted to do one, we should have won in 2018 IMO.

We should worry about the B2B first though. That’s hard enough as it is. If and when we do, then we’ll get a clearer picture of where these players are at.
This is the reason I believe we have 2 more years to try and win another flag with this group (and its a lot harder in 2021 than this year based on those ages).

The end of 2021 is clearly the most concerning transition, because yes by the end our core will be an old side, no mistaking it. Injuries, retirements, age decline, loss of speed/power, these things will all start to bring us down over the next 2 years, but we probably have 1 more year (2020) before it has a noticable effect.
2021 is then the "maybe" year to challenge again and then at the end of 2021? Well the era is over and its time to rebuild/rejuvinate.

Ive held that view for quite a while.
 

Tiger Toffee

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It’s not the average age of the list that’s old. It’s the average age of our core that is heading there.

I hope it doesn’t happen to us, but the decline can come very rapidly with players over 30. Then there are players like Ablett who stay strong after hitting 30. I guess we just have to wait and see.
We are cashing in so there is nothing to be concerned about, it would be worse if you were falling at the last or second last hurdle with an older core like pies and cats, we are not just the older core, our kids won the VFL flag and we have mid twenties players who will be more than ready to take over from the older core. Future is fine so just enjoy the now. Go back at look at the first half of 2019 when our kids were required to hold the fort while our older core were injured, AFL side got to 7-3 and the VFL side was 7-0 and then when the older core move on we will cash to bring in other core experienced players.
 

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VicBased

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The energy and effort it takes to play Richmonds brand of football will overtake them this year. They will run out of legs as they are older and flushed with a G.F win. Back to the pack this year, even with their easy fixture, probably 5-6th at the end of the season.
 

Mister M

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Jack Riewoldt and Shane Edwards would be 33 as well. We have an older core than Brisbane and Bulldogs. Once players hit their 30s, the decline can come rapidly.

Look at how old the ages of these players are at the end of this year:

Dustin Martin - 29
David Astbury - 29
Nathan Broad - 27
Josh Caddy - 28
Trent Cotchin - 30
Shane Edwards - 32
Dylan Grimes - 29
Tom Lynch - 28
Bachar Houli - 32
Kane Lambert - 29
Marlion Pickett - 29
Dion Prestia - 28
Jack Riewoldt - 32

There are a lot of core players on this list. They are all 30 years old and older by the end of 2021 with the exception of Broad. If you don’t think that this is a list of core players that are ageing, then I don’t know what else to say.
I completely understand your point & agree that our list is aging--- but you've got the ages of Caddy, Lynch & Prestia wrong. Caddy will turn 30 around the time of the 2022 Grand Final, while both Lynch & Prestia will turn 30 after the 2022 season.
 

Vic pokiesmon

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Fron Giants perspective nothing has changed in past 3 years.Swap games missed to key players between the Giants and Tigers over the last 3 years and the Grand final result can be reversed.

We need to finish top four though.Winning 3 interstate finals in a row as only the Crows have done in 98 is too taxing.
Remember no Victorian side has ever been forced to do this...Also I rate Collingwoods list similarly to Giants.They just need to have a better run with injuries.Eagles and Cats will also be thereabouts while Brisbane is a bit young if they get any injuries to there key veterans and don't have the same injury run as 19
 

prodigy1311

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The energy and effort it takes to play Richmonds brand of football will overtake them this year. They will run out of legs as they are older and flushed with a G.F win. Back to the pack this year, even with their easy fixture, probably 5-6th at the end of the season.
This sounds more like your wish! In all events, wishful thinking
 

Lsta062

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We are cashing in so there is nothing to be concerned about, it would be worse if you were falling at the last or second last hurdle with an older core like pies and cats, we are not just the older core, our kids won the VFL flag and we have mid twenties players who will be more than ready to take over from the older core. Future is fine so just enjoy the now. Go back at look at the first half of 2019 when our kids were required to hold the fort while our older core were injured, AFL side got to 7-3 and the VFL side was 7-0 and then when the older core move on we will cash to bring in other core experienced players.
Absolutely, Richmond is making the most of their list and I don’t think any Richmond is disappointed with how we went. Even if we do fall because of the transition, I think that we wouldn’t be low for long because of the culture that we have built and the group of youth that we have. I don’t think it will take many years at the bottom to jump back up again should we fall during our transition period
 

Dr Tigris

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In about 2 years we will have some genuine super stars slowing down. We'll also have to replace, or look at replacing, JR and Astbury. So it'll be interesting. If the Tigers get it right and are lucky then the window should stay open til about 2023. If it doesn't then 2 more years.

After 2023 everything's up in the air. We've got as good a list for then as anyone. But some teams are loaded with young talent, and can come on like the Tigers or Eagles did. Obviously the Bulldogs 2016 team is almost intact and more mature. But in 2020 It'll probably look at bit like 2019, except that the Hawks have rolled the dice and might have a much better team if they can get their players fit and in form.
 

Do the Dew

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Fron Giants perspective nothing has changed in past 3 years.Swap games missed to key players between the Giants and Tigers over the last 3 years and the Grand final result can be reversed.

We need to finish top four though.Winning 3 interstate finals in a row as only the Crows have done in 98 is too taxing.
Remember no Victorian side has ever been forced to do this...Also I rate Collingwoods list similarly to Giants.They just need to have a better run with injuries.Eagles and Cats will also be thereabouts while Brisbane is a bit young if they get any injuries to there key veterans and don't have the same injury run as 19
You finished 6th. What do you expect in a GF run, 3+ home games???

Injury what ifs are misleading. Were the injuries soft tissue, impact, concussion etc. was it poor management by the medical staff? You can get lucky with injuries sure, but teams that have good players continually injured over the course of multiple seasons can’t blame bad luck, there’s very likely some mismanagement going on.


On iPhone using BigFooty.com mobile app
 

telsor

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You finished 6th. What do you expect in a GF run, 3+ home games???

Injury what ifs are misleading. Were the injuries soft tissue, impact, concussion etc. was it poor management by the medical staff? You can get lucky with injuries sure, but teams that have good players continually injured over the course of multiple seasons can’t blame bad luck, there’s very likely some mismanagement going on.


On iPhone using BigFooty.com mobile app
Another factor to consider is history.

When has GWS had a *good* injury run?

If every year is bad, then either they have injury prone players, a poor medical team, or maybe it's just being overhyped....whichever the case, it suggests that next year (and the year after, and..) will also be considered less than stellar.

Luck might explain a bad year or two, but the longer it goes, the more is suggests something else is at play.

Not suggesting it's a sure thing that would happen (and DEFINITELY not wishing injury on anyone), but it might pay to look at the 'why', and ask if that's been changed significantly.
 

Dr Tigris

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Who else will worry us? Maybe GWS if they can stay fit, but we clearly have their measure. Collingwood and Geelong are both finished IMO.
Umm, the Eagles.

2nd best team in my book in 2019 - until finals.

Kelly makes a very strong team stronger.

Probably my premiership favourite right now. Hope I'm wrong and it's Tigers 3 out of 4.
 

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