Teams you are ruling out of the finals

[PerthBoy86]

I think this year is even more even than last year, it just feels like there have been few matches that are a sure bet. The many upsets this weekend, and every team who has won being lower on the ladder than their opponent is unprecedented in the current format. Looking at the ladder, it seems almost everyone has a chance to make the final 8.

Based on position and current form, I'd say the following are guaranteed or virtually guaranteed of making the top 8:

Adelaide
GWS
Geelong
Western Bulldogs

Likely to but not assured:

West Coast
St Kilda

And then, oddly enough, most of the rest have a fairly good chance of either making the 8 or not.

Based on overall form I'd say Brisbane, Carlton and Essendon are the most likely to miss out on finals action. Sydney and Hawthorn will most likely improve, but at this stage, I would say they're still less likely to make the final 8 than most teams near the middle.

Your thoughts/predictions at this still early stage?

 

[Adz]

Brisbane, Pies, Melbourne and North are all cooked.

 

[SBYM]

You don't wanna finish 5th...

The Mighty Baggers are EF specialists.

 

[Randomizor]

Brisbane, Pies, North, and I think Sydney are coming from way too far back to make it

 

[PerthBoy86]

Brisbane, Pies, Melbourne and North are all cooked.

Yeah I don't rate the Pies and Dees much. Pies hot and cold as they've been over the past few years, and Melbourne seem like a perpetually mediocre side. The ball handling skills in the Essendon match were atrocious, they only pinched it because of how bad Essendon were. They again overused it, over-hand-balled it, didn't seem confident a lot against Hawthorn. It was more about how bad Melbourne were than how good Hawthorn were. At times they were giving them so much space. It also felt Hawthorn still linked up much better with experience compared to the young Demons side. That's just awareness/experience/skill, which determination can't really replace.

 

[PerthBoy86]

Brisbane, Pies, North, and I think Sydney are coming from way too far back to make it

You don't rate North? I didn't really that much until they beat Adelaide soundly, but it may well be an outlier, plus the conditions down there. But North have been competitive, nearly beat Geelong, so they're a possibility. But yeah given their 2-5 record I'd probably agree that I don't think they'll make the 8.

 

[PerthBoy86]

Brisbane, Pies, North, and I think Sydney are coming from way too far back to make it

Brisbane are also just really terrible. The standout worst team in the comp. I think Sydney are more going through a form slump.

 

[The Swert]

Hawks no chance. Poor percentage will kill them.

 

[Randomizor]

Brisbane are also just really terrible. The standout worst team in the comp. I think Sydney are more going through a form slump.

Feel sorry for their supporters. Likely to have a few more players jump ship this year.

 

[DroopStDanny]

Long time no see Perthboy, welcome back. Looking forward to reading your threads again.

Brisbane
Collingwood
Carlton
North
Sydney
Essendon
Gold Coast

 

[Randomizor]

You don't rate North? I didn't really that much until they beat Adelaide soundly, but it may well be an outlier, plus the conditions down there. But North have been competitive, nearly beat Geelong, so they're a possibility. But yeah given their 2-5 record I'd probably agree that I don't think they'll make the 8.

Yeah, again, just too far back to make it.

 

[Boristown]

Hawks are absolutely no chance.

 

[hutchy31]

I'd be surprised if the current top eight weren't still there by September. History will tell you that's usually the case, plus they just look like the best eight teams in the comp, despite the fact there are a few others just outside who you wouldn't write off.

Absolute write offs are probably Brisbane, Pies, Essendon, Hawthorn and maybe even Carlton. Bolton's got them playing well but they'll struggle to win ten games let alone twelve or thirteen. Sydney probably need to lose once more this month to be a complete write off, and GC are a smoky if they can stay healthy.

I wouldn't write off Melbourne but jeez they've been average at times. Three wins given their fixture so far isn't great - haven't played outside Melbourne, and only three top eight teams in that. I'd like to see them in there but it's looking unlikely.

 

[Ricmel]

Long time no see Perthboy, welcome back. Looking forward to reading your threads again.

Brisbane
Collingwood
Carlton
North
Sydney
Essendon
Gold Coast

This is about right I think. Brisbane, Sydney, North probably too far back to make it, the rest can beat anyone on their day but don't have the consistency to win enough games to make it.

I think Melbourne are gathering more question marks as the season goes on too.

 

[SwampCreature]

Anyone know of a ladder predictor that works on a phone?

 

[Bluelegs]

We needed to win two of the games we lost to have a chance. Such an even season you simply MUST take your chances. We'll get smashed next week and be 3/5 and wont be able to make our way back.

 

[Supercoach Bargain]

Only the Lions. Every result on the weekend was against the ladder positions. That possibly says how irrelevant the ladder is, but I digress. Carlton probably will miss, but they are a work in progress.

 

[Bokonon_]

Hawks no chance. Poor percentage will kill them.

Lack of points might be an issue too

 

[_Mike_]

North & Collingwood for now based on position/form with Brisbane, Sydney, Hawthorn, Carlton most likely as highly probable to miss

 

[Kane McGoodwin]

Kangaroos are the only side outside the top 11 I can see making the finals, as they haven't been playing bad footy, their percentage is ok & have a decent draw from here.

The sides I can't see making the finals are:
Brisbane
Sydney
Hawthorn
Carlton
Collingwood

 

[PerthBoy86]

Long time no see Perthboy, welcome back. Looking forward to reading your threads again.

Brisbane
Collingwood
Carlton
North
Sydney
Essendon
Gold Coast

Yep, I'm back haha.

 

[Chocoholic]

I think this year is even more even than last year, it just feels like there have been few matches that are a sure bet. The many upsets this weekend, and every team who has won being lower on the ladder than their opponent is unprecedented in the current format. Looking at the ladder, it seems almost everyone has a chance to make the final 8.

Based on position and current form, I'd say the following are guaranteed or virtually guaranteed of making the top 8:

Adelaide
GWS
Geelong
Western Bulldogs

Likely to but not assured:

West Coast
St Kilda

And then, oddly enough, most of the rest have a fairly good chance of either making the 8 or not.

Based on overall form I'd say Brisbane, Carlton and Essendon are the most likely to miss out on finals action. Sydney and Hawthorn will most likely improve, but at this stage, I would say they're still less likely to make the final 8 than most teams near the middle.

Your thoughts/predictions at this still early stage?

That is very nice of you but unless we turn our form around real quick, we won't be making the 8.

 

[jimbler]

Yep, I'm back haha.

What were you in for?

 

[Bokonon_]

I'm not ruling anyone in or out out at this stage with 15 rounds to go. I think Brisbane and Carlton are focussed on developing and probably not focussed on making the 8 this year.They woukd be the least likely and I exoect the coaches will make decisions based on ling term benefit rather than short term points. To some extent that might akso be true of the Suns, Hawks, North and the Swans. The latter three wiĺl regard a spot in the 8 as their right though.

 

[shintemaster]

Coming from a fair way back obviously but our fixture opens up quite a bit now.

From here North play:

Home v Sydney
Melbourne
Carlton
Richmond
Saints
Bulldogs
Away v Suns
Home v Fremantle
Away v Port
Essendon
Melbourne
Collingwood
Away v Hawthorn
Saints
Away v Lions

Been playing pretty good football and Saturday was the best full game of football I have seen out of that team in years. Actually leaving outside the first quarter I can’t remember the last time we played so well for an entire game.

It would obviously be a brave man that predicted a win in every one of those games on current form you’d suggest none of those would be games we wouldn’t think we could realistically win. I’d much rather go into finals with a run of wins and good from rather than last year where all our wins were in the first half and we were limping injured and out of form to the finals.