The Fixture Difficulty is The Most Overrated Variable in Ladder Predictions

[Albert Ross]

Pretty much all of those are neutral and/or once-a-year used venues. Not home venues that certain teams get to play at every other week that others don't.

'

Which leaves the NFL as about the only league with a Championship game that 'floats' its venue?

 

[Albert Ross]

I agree. Let's just not pretend it doesn't offer a large advanatge to certain teams.

What about the advantage of getting to train on the ground you play on?

 

[theflea]

People do gone on about Port's easy draw last year, but the truth of the matter is we played the bottom 4 teams 5 times, as did Carlton, as did Sydney. Freo and Richmond both played the bottom 4 teams 6 times each.

What were the perceived rankings of those bottom 4 teams when the draw was done? We'd all expect GWS to be last, but did we expect the saints, doggies and the dees to be so poor? Also did we expect the eagles and the crows to go down as far either? Did we think GC would win 8 games? We all do this hindsight draw examination but nobody knows how team will rise and fall until the end of the season.

 

[Pessimistic]

Hawks had an advanage because they had experience of swirly winds at the MCG, and freo didnt have a clue, and barely tried shots at goal in the warm up. I suppose they concentrate on stopping not gettin goals


I did laugh when every expert predicted the swirly winds would nullify hawthorns precision kicking game, and turned out to be 100% incorrect

I guess players who are skilled at kicking by some miracle are aware the wind has an effect, whoda think that ?

Not many experts it seems

 

[theflea]

So we get to play 16 home games at the SCG and only 6 away.

PLUSSSS....instead of our 2014 away fixture, of those Away games we now get to play
1 at Subi (against 13th, Weagles)
1 at Welli which we did last yr (against either Brissy 12th or 16th Saints)
1 at Metricon against an expansion club (14th, Gold Coast)
2 at Adelaide (against 11th, Adel and 7th, Port). yeah we go there twice already too.
1 at SS (against 2nd, Geelong) yepp, we already go there.
1 in Tassie..(but we get to play North)

These sort of gifts dont come along often.

U got a deal.

( i can only imagine the meltdown if Sydney got to play 16 Home games and got to play that lineup away)

Your making it sound as if the afl have contrived to have more Melbourne teams than is needed. last time I looked we inherited 10 vic teams so it is what it is. Did you want Melbourne teams to play home game in Darwin?

 

[theflea]

No mate...just open your other eye.

Is Collingwood v Essendon at Etihad counted as an AWAY game for the Pies ...yepp. 10 min taxi trip to play on a track you regualrly play on anyway. Yet still its called an AWAY game.

Neither Essendon nor Collingwood have hopped a plane...neither club is playing interstate. Both clubs regularly play on the same ground. Yet you still think of it as an Essendon HG advantage ?...in a competition where half the teams are interstate and need to hop planes just to play an away game ? its not even in the same ballpark of "home ground advantage"

So your argument is just hopping on a plane determines home ground advantage irrespective of the actual ground or crowd?

 

[shintemaster]

I think you are oversimplifying it a touch. As an example, double ups against Fremantle up until recently for Victorian teams were a good chance at an even split of points. One game in WA against them for the year was fat chance at any points. There is a massive difference for some teams based on where you may play that one potential game.

Agree the last few years in particular have exaggerated the issue but it is still there. The question should not be whether it makes a substantial difference to the Premiership winner (FWIW I think it could), it is about having a clear goal, as a competition to provide each team with as close to equal chance of winning on their own merits.

 

[Engimal]

Adelaide were very near the top in 2012 - pretty much due to a kind fixture.
They werent top 4 imo in that season.

What? Despite their draw, Adelaide were one of the best teams of 2012 and the only thing keeping them out of the 2012 Grand Final was a goal and some questionable umpiring. Give credit where credit is due.

 

[Bosk]

we've (of late) done alright off an easier draw and your mob have profited off the 3 strikes rule....it all evens out so stop your whining

I don't even understand what this means, can you please rephrase it in English for me?

 

[theflea]

One hour in a plane isn't much of an effect, two hours is starting to have an impact, four to five hours is a real impact. Eagles and Dockers big disadvantage. Other interstate teams not so much.

I think the WA clubs have worked out a process around this, but there's something towards an accumulative effect of all this travel v games played.

 

[theflea]

I think Bollox is talking purely about travel that non Vic clubs have to do as a disadvantage. Melb vs Melb game at the MCG would be pretty neutral I would have thought.

But yes the biggest fixturing elephant in the room is the MCG grand final. In no sport/league outside of Australia would something like this ever happen (to my knowledge) and I've yet to see any Victorian acknowledge the unfair advantage although they get irked up about things like COLA to no end.

Ok but what's the point in talking about something that wont change ever? It's moot.

 

[Shane Mead]

Just because your personal assessment of the fixture turns out to be wrong, it doesn't mean the fixture is irrelevant.

The Fixture is just one of the things that is not even for every team.

 

[MickyG]

So, you're saying the Eagles and Dockers get a big disadvantage when they travel.
They therefore get a big advantage when they play at home and other teams travel.


I agree.

There's also the recovery factor. They are playing in Perth after travelling the week before. This means they effectively have one day less recovery. I therefore think the AFL should try to have no six day breaks for the Perth teams if possible. This would mean they start with a Thursday or Friday game then play Saturday and then Sunday as the rounds progress and then reset with the Derbys and the bye. The Derby is around round 6, then the bye round 11, then the other Derby at round 18 so they get the extra days for recovery. Similarly the East Coast teams playing in Perth should not have a six day break if possible.

I think the WA clubs have worked out a process around this, but there's something towards an accumulative effect of all this travel v games played.

I think all the teams have strategies to cope with it and the effects are a lot less than they used to be but it is still an effect and a sizeable disadvantage.

 

[4tone]

The fixture can get you off to great start if the you play weaker teams early on, The bombers smashed the Dees in round 2, their percentage went past 200%. Huge advantage, a consistent year thereon means a healthy percentage is maintained season long.

 

[telsor]

So we get to play 16 home games at the SCG and only 6 away.

PLUSSSS....instead of our 2014 away fixture, of those Away games we now get to play
1 at Subi (against 13th, Weagles)
1 at Welli which we did last yr (against either Brissy 12th or 16th Saints)
1 at Metricon against an expansion club (14th, Gold Coast)
2 at Adelaide (against 11th, Adel and 7th, Port). yeah we go there twice already too.
1 at SS (against 2nd, Geelong) yepp, we already go there.
1 in Tassie..(but we get to play North)

These sort of gifts dont come along often.

U got a deal.

( i can only imagine the meltdown if Sydney got to play 16 Home games and got to play that lineup away)

Sure, except most of those 'home' games are played at a neutral venue, so you can forget the SCG.

 

[tazhawk]

Fixture is always inherently skewed and biased toward Melbourne teams. They effectively get an easy run to finals.

.

There you have it folks.

you have now read it all............yes a Sydney supporter wrote this.

I repeat a Sydney supporter.

 

[Lord Eddard]

What about the advantage of getting to train on the ground you play on?

Many world class sporting teams who own their own stadium dont even bother training on it.

A tad different to a home grand final that you dont have to earn.

 

[skipjack]

Bollox are you even reading other people's posts?

There is no home ground advantage if both teams play at their home ground.

You are discussing the amou t of travel required in a season which is a separate issue, and, one that has no solution given WA, SA, NSW and Qu have only two teams. It can't be fixed without giving them a HUGE home ground advantage.

See? Two different issues.

 

[jko'neal]

Bollox are you even reading other people's posts?

There is no home ground advantage if both teams play at their home ground.

You are discussing the amou t of travel required in a season which is a separate issue, and, one that has no solution given WA, SA, NSW and Qu have only two teams. It can't be fixed without giving them a HUGE home ground advantage.

See? Two different issues.

Don't bother, your belting your head against the wall trying to explain the difference between home games, and home ground advantage games to some interstate supporters. I've had an Eagles supporter try and tell me when two Victorian clubs play at the MCG, the team that is hosting the game has the home ground advantage because they will have a larger portion of supporters in the crowd

 

[Albert Ross]

Many world class sporting teams who own their own stadium dont even bother training on it.

A tad different to a home grand final that you dont have to earn.

You do understand that your first sentence suggests home ground advantage is insignificant; while your second suggests it is massive?

Anyway that is the OP's point. When you trade-off all the competing advantage and disadvantages, you probably end up with a fixture that probably doesn't favour one team or another by more than a game across a season.

As for earned Home Grand finals .... if the highest ranked teams earns the Grand Final ... there have only been two instances since the expansion in '87 of interstate teams losing a game they should have hosted to a team that they surrender home ground advantage to. Twice in 27 years. Yes is is unfair. But is hardly as significant as people would imagine.

2013 - Hawthorn (MCG)
2012 - Hawthorn (MCG)
2011 - Collingwood (MCG)
2010 - Collingwood (MCG)
2009 - St Kilda (Docklands?)
2008 - Hawthorn (MCG)
2007 - Geelong (MCG)
2006 - West Coast (beat Sydney at a neutral venue)
2005 - West Coast (lost to Sydney at a neutral venue)
2004 - Port Adelaide (beat Brisbane at a neutral venue)
2003 - Collingwood (MCG)
2002 - Brisbane (beat Collingwood away)
2001 - Essendon (Docklands)
2000 - Essendon (Docklands)
1999 - Kangaroos (MCG)
1998 - Kangaroos (MCG)
1997 - St Kilda (Waverley)
1996 - Sydney (lost to North Melbourne away)
1995 - Carlton (Princess Park?)
1994 - West Coast (beat Geelong away)
1993 - Essendon (MCG)
1992 - Geelong (MCG)
1991 - West Coast (lost to Hawthorn away)
1990 - Essendon (Windy Hill?)
1989 - Hawthorn (Princess Park?)
1988 - Hawthorn (Princess Park?)
1987 - Carlton (Princess Park?)

 

[Pessimistic]

Agains that the interstate teams have an advantage to get into finals,but not to make top two.

They should be able to bank 10 to 12 wins at home and boost that with 3 to 5 wins against struggling teams away

 

[Bollox]

Whilst i understand this is Bigfooty...meaning we are all kicking plastic footies around in a kitty litterbox and occasionally throwing cat s**t around...but can i suggest some of you completely restart your illustrious playing careers, but this time dont do it on a playstation. The search for an angle to justify that stupid paper generalisation just goes on and on....only have to look above to see it. They wander in, see a discussion...huddle together, then try to pretend someone is stupid enough to say that say North v StKilda at the dome might contain home ground advantage. Any angle will do.

This convenient new notion that home ground advantage doesnt even exist anymore in Melbourne between Vic clubs, is just one group of kiddies in the litterbox huddling together in the corner. Its one of the few times you;ll ever see a Dons fan backing up a Pies fan, or a Tiges fan backing up a Hawth fan...because of the vested interest.

Money has a habit of hiding the bleeding obvious. Clubs and fans want to play games at certain grounds for money and exposure...especially if they are clubs that get financially raped by playing at the Dome like Dogs, North, Saints etc. They'd happily scream PLEASE can we play at the MCG. But strip that $ aspect away and HGA is still there between Melb clubs, though obviously a lot less now.

Its like the concept of HGA is being purposefully watered down by a bunch of twits in denial. Its STILL there in Melb whether u like it or not even though its not as great. Hardly a factor at all in finals, and not as much as interstate, but dont bother trying to tell people that they're all somehow completely "neutral" between Melb clubs in Melb.

In 2010 Collingwood played their LAST ELEVEN GAMES STRAIGHT at the MCG Bugger me that cant be right can it ? Anyway, twice at least in recent yrs they've been handed streaks of SEVEN STRAIGHT at their HOME ground...bugger me that cant be right either can it ?

Can anyone tell me any other level of our game we've played where u have ever enjoyed this advantage ?...did average bigfooty joe somehow grow up in bizzarroland and play a totally different game in a totally different world to the rest of us ? I would've loved to play at the same home ground every week...you wouldnt ?? Wouldnt see it as an advantage ? What a special bunch u lot are. Think back to when u were kids, if my dad helped drive us JUST ONE SUBURB away we could go from giant killers to total shitheads kicking 3.21, within a week....thats because of familiarity and regularity...aka "home ground advantage". Regularity/Familiarity factors are STILL there even at the professional level....yes that includes between the Dome and the MCG. Its not as big an advantage as others but dont try to deny it doesnt even exist at all.

Speaking of 2010 (and a club somehow being able to play 11 straight at home to win a flag , but lets not mention that)...if you still prefer to remain blind have a look at the GF games played during the HnA season that year...
Rnd 3 Saints v Pies at Docklands...Saints 10.9 bt Pies 4.17
Rnd 16 Pies v Saints at MCG....Pies 15.10 bt Saints 6.16
Notice anything ?... i dont suppose u noticed the kicking for goal effect when playing at the other mobs regular home ground ?
Its not an excuse for losing, and not saying it happens as a rule either...but its just another factor and more normal than most other factors on a game. Even your kicking is more susceptible on grounds u play on less often...in fact your kicking can turn to utter s**t. IT DECIDES GAMES...aka home ground advantage decides games. There's a shock

HGA between Melb clubs evolves and unfolds during a HnA season, but reduces to bugger all effect between Melb clubs when finals come around. Its still just another factor in a Melb v Interstate GF but i dont see much in any Melb v Melb club final. 2010 truly taking the piss a bit though...but hey lets not mention the E L E V E N S T R A I G H T home games !!!!!!!!!!!!! WTF !!

So lets say the Doggies for instance play their last 5 games under the roof at a speedy dry Dome, then next week play the Pies in a wet game at the MCG against a mob that plays there week in week out...YES there's a home ground advantage factor about to come into it. Is that some sort of big secret needing to be denied is it ? If the Pies have played the same ground (MCG) the last 3 weeks running, are u trying to tell me they dont enjoy any home ground advantage against another Melb club ?

No, it is not as much as interstate and nobody is saying its every game, but dont try to tell others it doesnt exist at all.

If its Rnd 23 and North and Rich are in equal 8th...do u really think the Tiges would be happy to switch it to the Dome knowing that North has only played 1 game at the MCG all season ? What if its wet ? Have North even played a wet game all season ? There's a huge number of factors that spell NOT neutral in so many games as the season unfolds...between Melb clubs in Melb.

You may not see it on paper, but we dont actually play footy on paper or on your playstation.

Another example...do some of you already conveniently forget what was once said over and over just 5+yrs ago about playing "Saints at the Dome". Nope ? Forgotten already ? They were murderers at the Dome...why ?? Were they really THAT good as a midrange top 8 all the way thru maybe 2005-2008ish ? They were almost impossible to beat the Dome but could be beaten elsewhere BY MELB CLUBS. No Melb club wanted to play them at the Dome. If u got to play them at the MCG or anywhere else instead of the Dome u were looking far better...but at the Dome ? Still no home ground advantage between Melb clubs ?

What about roof on roof off ? There are some seasons that unfold with some Melb clubs that have hardly seen a damp blade of grass let alone some mud. But the Tiges or Dees may have been playing in mud every second week at the MCG. Still no home ground advantage between melb clubs on a wet day at the MCG compared to Etihad ?

Nobody pretends there's HGA between say Dogs v North at the Dome, or Pies v Tiges at MCG, they are neutral yeah cheers tx for the insight ... but dont use that as an angle to make a generalisation about ALL Melb/Melb games. It unfolds during a season between Melb clubs. Noone pretends Freo/Weagles at Subi or Port/Adel at Footy Pk have any home ground advantage either...so dont rummage around in the litterbox looking for a different angle on it. You may prefer to play at the MCG for the $ or exposure but thats not what anyone is talking about is it...irrelevant.

So next time you;re standing at the water cooler at work, and some guy tells u "North are looking great ...but if they were playing the Pies at the Dome this week instead of at the MCG...i might pick them"....just tell him straight off that it doesnt matter one bit, and he's a complete moron...because it isnt a factor at all, right ?

The fact that North may not have played there for eons and Pies have played the last 5 straight there is NOT a factor at all, or is it ?

Yes, lots of Melb/Melb games ARE neutral during a season...yeah cheers thanx ...but if you try to extend that to pretending ALL are neutral then you can go straight to your room and back to your playstations right now...no dinner for you.

Vic clubs against Vic clubs at the two main Vic grounds are neutral.

Please Santa...i've been a good boy, so can the swannies please get 11 straight games at the SCG and travel only 5 times this year...oh oh oh, and just in case we make the GF can i also have the GF guaranteed at our home ground too ?

sorry...thats asking for too much.

Merry Xmas

 

[Albert Ross]

In 2010 Collingwood played their LAST ELEVEN GAMES STRAIGHT at the MCG Bugger me that cant be right can it ? Anyway, twice at least in recent yrs they've been handed streaks of SEVEN STRAIGHT at their HOME ground...bugger me that cant be right either can it ?

Collingwood had 7 games at the MCG at the end of the 2010 H+A season. The other MCG games were finals that they had won the right to host. Of those 7 H+A games the matches against Carlton, Richmond and Hawthorn were neutral. The Geelong and Essendon games were away games and partly neutral. The game against St Kilda might represent some more significant HGA.

Regularity/Familiarity factors are STILL there even at the professional level....yes that includes between the Dome and the MCG. Its not as big an advantage as others but dont try to deny it doesnt even exist at all.

If regularity / familiarity are an advantage, Sydney's ability to train on the SCG is an advantage they hold over the MCG teams that don't train on the G.

Speaking of 2010 (and a club somehow being able to play 11 straight at home to win a flag , but lets not mention that)...if you still prefer to remain blind have a look at the GF games played during the HnA season that year...
Rnd 3 Saints v Pies at Docklands...Saints 10.9 bt Pies 4.17
Rnd 16 Pies v Saints at MCG....Pies 15.10 bt Saints 6.16
Notice anything ?... i dont suppose u noticed the kicking for goal effect when playing at the other mobs regular home ground ?

But when they met in the first GF it was St Kilda (10.8) whose accuracy got them the draw over Collingwood (9.14) despite Collingwood's familiarity.

No, it is not as much as interstate and nobody is saying its every game, but dont try to tell others it doesnt exist at all.

The contention is not that HGA doesn't exist. There is no argument that the fixture is fair. There is an argument to say that the compensating inequities tend to balance things out enough that the overall impact through the H+A season is less than a game and not that significant.

Another example...do some of you already conveniently forget what was once said over and over just 5+yrs ago about playing "Saints at the Dome". Nope ? Forgotten already ? They were murderers at the Dome...why ?? Were they really THAT good as a midrange top 8 all the way thru maybe 2005-2008ish ? They were almost impossible to beat the Dome but could be beaten elsewhere BY MELB CLUBS. No Melb club wanted to play them at the Dome. If u got to play them at the MCG or anywhere else instead of the Dome u were looking far better...but at the Dome ? Still no home ground advantage between Melb clubs ?

St Kilda's record at the Dome, shows they had one exceptional year. The other seasons are consistant with what you'd expect from a top-4 side.

2003: 8-3
2004: 13-0
2005: 8-4
2006: 8-3
2007: 8-4-1
2009: 13-2
2010: 10 -3 -1

Their record at the MCG hardly is of a team that suffered much at the MCG.

2003: 1-2
2004: 1-2
2005: 5-1
2006: 3-2
2007: 2-2
2008: 2-3
2009: 3-1
2010: 3-2-1

What about roof on roof off ? There are some seasons that unfold with some Melb clubs that have hardly seen a damp blade of grass let alone some mud. But the Tiges or Dees may have been playing in mud every second week at the MCG. Still no home ground advantage between melb clubs on a wet day at the MCG compared to Etihad ?

Yes there is an advantage. But the advantage you get by playing in mud one week is offset by the disadvantage of playing in the dry the next.

On your logic if Richmond plays in the dry on Saturday, and Melbourne in the wet on Sunday, when they both meet in the wet the following Friday night Melbourne has a HGA advantage? When Melbourne travel to Sydney the following Sunday and play on the SCG mudbath they have an advantage over the Swans who were over at Subi the week before?

Yes, lots of Melb/Melb games ARE neutral during a season...yeah cheers thanx ...but if you try to extend that to pretending ALL are neutral then you can go straight to your room and back to your playstations right now...no dinner for you.

Only that the offsetting inequities tend to make the HGA minor over the course of season.

Please Santa...i've been a good boy, so can the swannies please get 11 straight games at the SCG and travel only 5 times this year...oh oh oh, and just in case we make the GF can i also have the GF guaranteed at our home ground too ?

In 2010 the Swans played the following games. Lets's give each 'type' a weighting

SCG: 8 games against travelling teams on a ground you train on. (75%)
Stadium Aus: 4 games against travelling teams (70%)
Manuka: 1 game against the Dogs. Have to call this neutral. If anything the Swans travel less and your reserves occasionally play there. (50%)
Football Park, Gabba, Subi: 4 games were you are clearly away, and the teams frequently train there (25%)
Kardinia Park: 1 game, but Geelong only played there 7 times. So are less familiar, but they train there (30%)
MCG: 3 games against MCG tenants who don't train on the ground (30%)
MCG: 1 game against the Dogs who are not an MCG tenant and like you only played 3 H+A games at the venue. (35%)
Docklands: 1 games against a tenant (North 13 games) (30%)
Docklands: 1 game against a part-tenant (9 games) (35%)

Tally that all up. 12.5 expected wins from 24 games on HGA sort of basis in a perfectly even league.

In 2010 the Pies played the following games.

Docklands: 2 games against tenants, but same town (45%)
Docklands: 1 game (WCE) against an interstater - a partial HGA (70%)
Docklands: 1 game at home to the Dogs (45%), the same as an away game ?
Gabba, Footy Park, Subiaco: 3 games (25%)
Stadium Australia: 1 game (30%)
MCG: 5 Neutral games (Melb, Rich, Haw) (50%)
MCG: 7 games against Ess, Carl, Gee who play their regularly and so adv to Coll must be slight (55%)?
MCG: 5 games (inc 2 Grand Finals) against the Saints, Dogs and North who play their less often (60%)?
MCG: 1 game against Adelaide (75%)

Tally that up. 13.2 expected wins from 26 games on HGA sort of basis.

You can play around with the weightings but there is less than a game in it (after CFC play two extra games)

 

[andrew coombs]

Geelong are the only Victorian club that enjoy a real home ground advantage in EVERY game they play down at Skilled. A big reason for this is that they actually live at the ground, train on it, perfect a game style to suit its dimensions. This gives it a massive advantage over visiting teams, both Victorian and interstate. The MCG and Ethiad tenants only get on their "home" grounds for actual games, many of which are against each other. The SCG is a ground unlike any other in shape and size. The Swans really shouldn't lose there given how difficult it is for opponents to both overcome a very strong team and come to terms with trying to play on a postage stamp of an oval ( too small for AFL in the modern era IMO ). The Swans may have to travel more often then the Vic clubs but are more then compensated for that with a home ground advantage to die for. Hell of a lot easier for them to come to Melbourne and win then the other way round.

 

[Bollox]

Tally that up. 13.2 expected wins from 26 games on HGA sort of basis.
You can play around with the weightings but there is less than a game in it (after CFC play two extra games)

Tally it up ? Play around with weightings ? On something that changes every week DURING the season, as it goes along ?
All you've done is totally ignore reality and try to replace actual factors effecting a simple game of footy with your own personalised simplistic crap that is all totally meaningless anyway.
"Lets give it a weighting'" ?...ummm no lets NOT...and lets not try to pretend that a game of footy gets some sort of weighting that you're making up as u go along. Thanx anyway ok.

geeezus... u might as well start trying to predict games by tallying up dreamteam points. You dont do you ?
Give us a break with the playstation analysis ok.