Competitions The Pieman 2021 - with a difference!

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dogwatch

Premium Platinum
Jun 17, 2009
23,645
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Could be worse - I didn’t put in a team during the finals and was ranked third during this period.

So effectively - when I’m involved - I make my side massively worse than just set and forget....
I'm just preparing a post on that. It's not such a dumb strategy.

My theory being that we go off players because they go goalless for a couple of games, but if they're any good they'll come back and kick goals soon enough ... and maybe with a better handicap than when we deliberately bring them into our team!
 

weltschmerz

Norm Smith Medallist
May 23, 2019
5,306
12,016
AFL Club
Western Bulldogs
My strategy was to go low risk and have a wide spread of players rather than doubling up. It worked pretty well, and I occasionally got the 20-point bonus, but that wasn't very significant.
 

dogwatch

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Jun 17, 2009
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Carryover Teams

Here's a look at the use of carryover teams. Carryovers happen either because the player just wants a "set and forget" arrangement without having to think about it too much each week (perhaps with the occasional adjustment through the season) or because the player forgot or was otherwise occupied and didn't get a chance to lodge their team. They also tend to happen more in the second half of the season where I suspect some contestants look at their ranking and say "naah, I'm not going to win it this year - I won't bother changing the team any more".

So do carryovers work? You decide.

We played 26 games so the maximum number of carryover teams you could have was 25. Only Jeff 1975 achieved that and he finished mid-table.

Looking at it the other way, of the top 10 in the Pieman seven of them had no more than two carryover teams throughout the whole year. The only others who used no more than two carryover teams were BEaston (36th), Kermit (14th), Dogs_R_Us (25th) ... oh and RandomDog (last, but there are other reasons for that!) This suggests choosing your own team each week has a strong correlation with a high position on the leaderboard.

However 54Bulldog16 had 21 out of a possible 25 carryover teams and finished a very respectable 6th in the comp. He did it by locking in a team of 3x Bont and 2x Bailey Smith after Round 10 and keeping that team for the rest of the year. So it can be done. Clearly a lot depends on your starting combination.

1632900607735.png
 

dogwatch

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Jun 17, 2009
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Pieman Substitutes

Not to be confused with Medi-Subs, Pieman subs are needed when a player in your Pieman team doesn't play. This is for one of two reasons (1) you have a carryover team and your man wasn't named in the Thursday night team announcements, or (2) your player was a late withdrawal before the game started.

Reminder of the sub rule: Basically the substitute is the player who kicked most goals last week. If there are two players equal on that score it's the one with the greater handicap value. And of course you can't get a player as sub if he's already in your team.

There doesn't seem any strong correlation of frequency of subs with Pieman results, other than the fact that those with carryover teams generally didn't do as well as those who picked a new team each week, and carryover teams tend to need subs more often ... for obvious reasons.

1632903825044.png

I thought it was worth a look at how particular Pieman teams morph due to subs though. I made a deliberate decision not to make the sub the player with the lowest handicap each week because the tendency would be for the set-and-forget teams to end up with an increasing concentration of Naughton, Weightman, Bruce and Bontempelli, which isn't good for the competition.

So let's look at Jeff 1975. He picked the following side in Rd 1 and then had 25 consecutive carryover teams which needed 6 subs along the way.

Jeff 1975Bontempelli14English14Vandermeer24Smith B26Naughton8

Over the course of the season this morphed into the following team by the Grand Final:

Jeff 1975Bontempelli11Daniel33Macrae40Smith B14English16

Bont and B Smith remained unchanged because they (along with Bailey Dale and Jack Macrae) were the only players to play all 26 games for the club this year. English dropped out of Jeff's team after his concussion in Rd 6 and didn't return until he was a sub in the Elimination Final. The randomising effect is shown by Daniel and Macrae being subs at different times simply because they jagged a goal or two in some games.

It's also worth a look at Charlie Bucket who had more subs than anyone. This was mainly due to the fact that he had a 3x Lipinski early in the year but when Lipinski was dropped he was replaced by a 3x Naughton. Then Naughton got concussed and was replaced by a 3x Bruce. In Round 18 Charlie intervened and dropped Bruce from his team and replaced him with 3x Garcia. When Garcia was omitted he was replaced by 3x Weightman and then when Flea got concussed he was replaced by a 3x Bailey Smith in the PF ... which earned Charlie a Kelvin!

Sometimes a sub pays off. Sometimes it doesn't. And that's exactly how it should be in my view.

Of course, you always have the option of changing the team yourself if you don't like the sub you got. Perhaps for the upcoming match (if there's time) but certainly for the week after.
 

Kermit

Moderator
Aug 11, 2003
1,937
2,169
The Swamp
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So that's it for 2021. I'll be back to post a few random stats over the next day or so.

Thanks everyone for participating. I hope you liked this year's different format, where you got to pick your players each week (or let them roll over from last week if you couldn't be bothered) rather than have to pick players before the season starts. I think it's a winner. The fact that it was possible for Wocka to take nearly 200 points off the leader in the final game shows that it can sustain competitive interest throughout the season. I hope to see you all in it again next year.

As always I'm happy to consider feedback and ideas for improvement but at this stage I'm not inclined to change much for 2022.
Thanks DW - awesome work as usual
 

Snarls Barkley

Norm Smith Medallist
Jun 7, 2012
7,450
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Thanks for all your effort again DW. Its always something I look forward to each season, although I usually forget to set my team until the last minute.

Think the new format worked brilliantly, think it was a beneficial change. You’re the anti-Steve Hocking.
 

dogwatch

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Jun 17, 2009
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Pieman Popularity Stakes

Here's a look at who was the most popular pick over the year. No surprises who finished in the top few. However the most popular pick per game played was perhaps a surprise - it was Jamarra Ugle-Hagan, very closely followed by Lin Jong who only played one game (and only about 15 minutes of it too!) A bit surprising that Josh Bruce didn't get more love too. He averaged 2.4 goals a game and missed out on hitting the scoreboard only once in his 20 games.

1632916208030.png
 

Floridog

All Australian
Mar 8, 2014
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Thanks for all your work on this Dogwatch. Congratulations Wocka! I'm afraid I just couldn't hold up under finals pressure. I'll do some work on that over the off season and come back ready to go in 2022.
 

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